Ace Bailey

[tontoz]

I thought the BPM thing got too much attention early on. Having said that it is up to 4.4 now.

[MasterIchiro]

Yikes, this guy scares me. I'm taking Jakucionis, the player who makes smart decisions over the player who has to learn to make smart decisions.

And that's reflected in Jaku's shooting efficiency. He's a smart 3-level scorer who's close to NBA-ready without having to learn this or that or work very hard on one thing, like passing. Jakucionis does everything well. Vecenie has him #3 and I think that's the right call.

[tontoz]

Yikes, this guy scares me. I'm taking Jakucionis, the player who makes smart decisions over the player who has to learn to make smart decisions.

And that's reflected in Jaku's shooting efficiency. He's must a smart 3-level scorer who's close to NBA-ready without having to learn this or that or work very hard on one thing, like passing. Jakucionis does everything well. Vecenie has him #3 and I think that's the right call.

Yeah i have Kasparas at 3 as well. After that it gets tougher. I have Tre at 4. At 5 i am undecided between Fears and Ace. Outside chance for VJ who i haven't watched in a game yet.

The thing about Ace is that as much of a question mark as he is on offense, i am definitely buying him on D and on the boards. He has a motor that runs hot and it really shows on D, not so much on offense.

[MasterIchiro]

Yikes, this guy scares me. I'm taking Jakucionis, the player who makes smart decisions over the player who has to learn to make smart decisions.

And that's reflected in Jaku's shooting efficiency. He's must a smart 3-level scorer who's close to NBA-ready without having to learn this or that or work very hard on one thing, like passing. Jakucionis does everything well. Vecenie has him #3 and I think that's the right call.

Yeah i have Kasparas at 3 as well. After that it gets tougher. I have Tre at 4. At 5 i am undecided between Fears and Ace. Outside chance for VJ who i haven't watched in a game yet.

The thing about Ace is that as much of a question mark as he is on offense, i am definitely buying him on D and on the boards. He has a motor that runs hot and it really shows on D, not so much on offense.

Motor/length/athleticism is so common in the NBA. If you have to learn to make smart decisions with the ball in your hand, typically you're already way behind the players who translate right away. And you may never learn how to process.

It's getting harder to find high IQ players with well-rounded skills. Those players can run circles around the pure athletes.

[The-Power]

Motor/length/athleticism is so common in the NBA.

6'8 to 6'10 players with plus length and athleticism who play defense and can shoot are actually not at all common in the NBA. They are highly sought after by virtually every team. I generally agree with your emphasis on smart decision-making but Bailey fits one of the few player profiles that can still be very successful as long as you put them in clearly defined roles that do not require complex decision-making. Think MPJ here.

[crows2]

Motor/length/athleticism is so common in the NBA.

6'8 to 6'10 players with plus length and athleticism who play defense and can shoot are actually not at all common in the NBA. They are highly sought after by virtually every team. I generally agree with your emphasis on smart decision-making but Bailey fits one of the few player profiles that can still be very successful as long as you put them in clearly defined roles that do not require complex decision-making. Think MPJ here.

Case in point, a guy like Ziaire Williams still got drafted at pick 10 despite having a far worse college season than Bailey. And guys like Knox and Reddish have been given far more looks by NBA teams than their output deserves.

[EvanZ]

Motor/length/athleticism is so common in the NBA.

6'8 to 6'10 players with plus length and athleticism who play defense and can shoot are actually not at all common in the NBA. They are highly sought after by virtually every team. I generally agree with your emphasis on smart decision-making but Bailey fits one of the few player profiles that can still be very successful as long as you put them in clearly defined roles that do not require complex decision-making. Think MPJ here.

Case in point, a guy like Ziaire Williams still got drafted at pick 10 despite having a far worse college season than Bailey. And guys like Knox and Reddish have been given far more looks by NBA teams than their output deserves.

Part of this is how strong the 2025 Freshmen class is. Ace might have been the number one pick last season for a lot of people here. Probably for me included. Maybe a consensus #1. This season…lots of competition. It’s that good of a class.

[Hal14]

I thought the BPM thing got too much attention early on. Having said that it is up to 4.4 now.

Under 5 is still bad..

It's not a death sentence, as there have been a few players with BPM under 5 who ended up being very good NBA players.

But when you combine the low BPM with other red flags (very low FTr, low unassisted makes at rim / 40 mins, very low assist %, insanely low FT%, 3 FG% is average at best, 3PA volume is kind of high but not very high, issues with IQ, feel decision making, processing on both ends of the floor, etc.), it does get very concerning..especially if you're thinking about taking him in the top 5 .. or even the top 3 picks.

[Hal14]

6'8 to 6'10 players with plus length and athleticism who play defense and can shoot are actually not at all common in the NBA. They are highly sought after by virtually every team. I generally agree with your emphasis on smart decision-making but Bailey fits one of the few player profiles that can still be very successful as long as you put them in clearly defined roles that do not require complex decision-making. Think MPJ here.

"Can play defense" is generous since he is prone to mistakes/lapses on the defensive end..and it's been a consistent issue with him, dating back to HS.

"can shoot" is generous since his 3 FG% is not that great, 3PA volume is good but not great, FT% is awful. Hard to find any good shooters in the NBA right now who shot 60% FT in college.

Guys who are tall and can kind of shoot are actually very common..most of them are not guys who end up returning top 5 pick value..

Read on Twitter

[billy_hoyle]

I thought the BPM thing got too much attention early on. Having said that it is up to 4.4 now.

Under 5 is still bad..

It's not a death sentence, as there have been a few players with BPM under 5 who ended up being very good NBA players.

But when you combine the low BPM with other red flags (very low FTr, low unassisted makes at rim / 40 mins, very low assist %, insanely low FT%, 3 FG% is average at best, 3PA volume is kind of high but not very high, issues with IQ, feel decision making, processing on both ends of the floor, etc.), it does get very concerning..especially if you're thinking about taking him in the top 5 .. or even the top 3 picks.

He's basically played what 3-4 games and gone from ~1 to 4.3.

I think he's just saying that people were using BPM as a hard evaluation cutoff, but seem to not understand how it can change very quickly.

If he puts up a good game or two, his team wins and Harper doesn't cannibalize the distribution of positive value, he can raise his BPM to an acceptable level quickly. He does put up raw numbers. A few efficient games will stack.

[Hal14]

I thought the BPM thing got too much attention early on. Having said that it is up to 4.4 now.

Under 5 is still bad..

It's not a death sentence, as there have been a few players with BPM under 5 who ended up being very good NBA players.

But when you combine the low BPM with other red flags (very low FTr, low unassisted makes at rim / 40 mins, very low assist %, insanely low FT%, 3 FG% is average at best, 3PA volume is kind of high but not very high, issues with IQ, feel decision making, processing on both ends of the floor, etc.), it does get very concerning..especially if you're thinking about taking him in the top 5 .. or even the top 3 picks.

He's basically played what 3-4 games and gone from ~1 to 4.3.

I think he's just saying that people were using BPM as a hard evaluation cutoff, but seem to not understand how it can change very quickly.

If he puts up a good game or two, his team wins and Harper doesn't cannibalize the distribution of positive value, he can raise his BPM to an acceptable level quickly. He does put up raw numbers. A few efficient games will stack.

1) that's a big "if".. we'll see what happens..

2) The slight jump in his BPM is mostly due to the big 39 point game he had vs Indiana which is an outlier compared to the rest of the games he's played this season.

[tontoz]

Under 5 is still bad..

It's not a death sentence, as there have been a few players with BPM under 5 who ended up being very good NBA players.

But when you combine the low BPM with other red flags (very low FTr, low unassisted makes at rim / 40 mins, very low assist %, insanely low FT%, 3 FG% is average at best, 3PA volume is kind of high but not very high, issues with IQ, feel decision making, processing on both ends of the floor, etc.), it does get very concerning..especially if you're thinking about taking him in the top 5 .. or even the top 3 picks.

He's basically played what 3-4 games and gone from ~1 to 4.3.

I think he's just saying that people were using BPM as a hard evaluation cutoff, but seem to not understand how it can change very quickly.

If he puts up a good game or two, his team wins and Harper doesn't cannibalize the distribution of positive value, he can raise his BPM to an acceptable level quickly. He does put up raw numbers. A few efficient games will stack.

1) that's a big "if".. we'll see what happens..

2) The slight jump in his BPM is mostly due to the big 39 point game he had vs Indiana which is an outlier compared to the rest of the games he's played this season.

Ace went 3-16 the game after his 39 pt game. That is also an outlier.

Judging college freshman isn't the same as judging NBA vets. Stats are far more reliable on the latter who play more games and whose skills are more developed.

With teenagers you really need to watch them play. I've seen Ace make a lot of good passes only to have guys miss layups/get fouled so he doesn't get credit for the assist.

His turnovers have come way down lately, 5 total in his last 6 games. Prior to that he had 19 turnovers in a 6 game stretch.

[The-Power]

"Can play defense" is generous since he is prone to mistakes/lapses on the defensive end..and it's been a consistent issue with him, dating back to HS.

He is showing very strong and extended flashes and has become better over time. Consistency is a nice-to-have at this point but by no means a deal-breaker as long as the tools and the basic motor are there (which is the case for Bailey). The NBA will squeeze out his defensive potential as long as he's ready to accept his role.

"can shoot" is generous since his 3 FG% is not that great, 3PA volume is good but not great, FT% is awful. Hard to find any good shooters in the NBA right now who shot 60% FT in college.

Does anyone actually believe he'll end up as a 60% FT shooter? His shooting touch is clearly to good for that. When you watch the games instead of just looking at basic boxscore metrics, it's also indisputable that he ‘can shoot’ considering the volume and degree of difficulty of his jump shots. His issue lies with him taking bad shots, not with his ability to shoot. The question with him is whether he can be a great shooter (in that regard I understand hesitancy in light of some of his early shooting indicators) or just a capable one – but he'll absolutely be someone who spaces the floor and makes opponents guard him at the perimeter in the NBA.

[Catchall]

Ace is most likely going top 3. He's showing his length defensively, he's making tough shots with improving efficiency, and he's even making the occasional pass now.

[JustBuzzin]

Rashard Lewis 2.0

[crows2]

6'8 to 6'10 players with plus length and athleticism who play defense and can shoot are actually not at all common in the NBA. They are highly sought after by virtually every team. I generally agree with your emphasis on smart decision-making but Bailey fits one of the few player profiles that can still be very successful as long as you put them in clearly defined roles that do not require complex decision-making. Think MPJ here.

Case in point, a guy like Ziaire Williams still got drafted at pick 10 despite having a far worse college season than Bailey. And guys like Knox and Reddish have been given far more looks by NBA teams than their output deserves.

Part of this is how strong the 2025 Freshmen class is. Ace might have been the number one pick last season for a lot of people here. Probably for me included. Maybe a consensus #1. This season…lots of competition. It’s that good of a class.

Agree, he would’ve gone at number 1 last year.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Under 5 is still bad..

It's not a death sentence, as there have been a few players with BPM under 5 who ended up being very good NBA players.

But when you combine the low BPM with other red flags (very low FTr, low unassisted makes at rim / 40 mins, very low assist %, insanely low FT%, 3 FG% is average at best, 3PA volume is kind of high but not very high, issues with IQ, feel decision making, processing on both ends of the floor, etc.), it does get very concerning..especially if you're thinking about taking him in the top 5 .. or even the top 3 picks.

He's basically played what 3-4 games and gone from ~1 to 4.3.

I think he's just saying that people were using BPM as a hard evaluation cutoff, but seem to not understand how it can change very quickly.

If he puts up a good game or two, his team wins and Harper doesn't cannibalize the distribution of positive value, he can raise his BPM to an acceptable level quickly. He does put up raw numbers. A few efficient games will stack.

1) that's a big "if".. we'll see what happens..

2) The slight jump in his BPM is mostly due to the big 39 point game he had vs Indiana which is an outlier compared to the rest of the games he's played this season.

and he's already over 5 BPM. didn't take long.

[SeattleJazzFan]

"Can play defense" is generous since he is prone to mistakes/lapses on the defensive end..and it's been a consistent issue with him, dating back to HS.

He is showing very strong and extended flashes and has become better over time. Consistency is a nice-to-have at this point but by no means a deal-breaker as long as the tools and the basic motor are there (which is the case for Bailey). The NBA will squeeze out his defensive potential as long as he's ready to accept his role.

"can shoot" is generous since his 3 FG% is not that great, 3PA volume is good but not great, FT% is awful. Hard to find any good shooters in the NBA right now who shot 60% FT in college.

Does anyone actually believe he'll end up as a 60% FT shooter? His shooting touch is clearly to good for that. When you watch the games instead of just looking at basic boxscore metrics, it's also indisputable that he ‘can shoot’ considering the volume and degree of difficulty of his jump shots. His issue lies with him taking bad shots, not with his ability to shoot. The question with him is whether he can be a great shooter (in that regard I understand hesitancy in light of some of his early shooting indicators) or just a capable one – but he'll absolutely be someone who spaces the floor and makes opponents guard him at the perimeter in the NBA.

amen. all you have to do is watch games to understand the low FT% isn't going to last. he's 12 out of his last 15 FTs.

up to 37% from three on the season now.

again i would just caution people not to overthink Bailey.

He's a 6'9" wing with plus athleticism, a sweet stroke, defends (on ball and off ball - he's a SG who averages more blocks per game than Cooper Flagg - who had that on their bingo card?), plays hard consistently, rebounds his position, is productive and is one of the youngest freshmen in the class.

we can talk warts until we're blue in the face, but none of that will change those facts i just laid out.

[tontoz]

That's all I needed to know about your opinion. Durant was at 8.8 WS, and predates stat collection before BPM. With Durant's efficiencies, he would easily be at 10+ BPM.

Ace is at 0.7 WS and 1.4 BPM.

No NBA player below 1 BPM has evern had an average or better career in the NBA: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13s3k6w/there_are_no_nba_prospects_who_i_can_find_who/

Ace is failing the statistical exam with several huge auto-fail red flags.

Any comment on Ace now that his BPM is 5.1?

[Hal14]

He's basically played what 3-4 games and gone from ~1 to 4.3.

I think he's just saying that people were using BPM as a hard evaluation cutoff, but seem to not understand how it can change very quickly.

If he puts up a good game or two, his team wins and Harper doesn't cannibalize the distribution of positive value, he can raise his BPM to an acceptable level quickly. He does put up raw numbers. A few efficient games will stack.

1) that's a big "if".. we'll see what happens..

2) The slight jump in his BPM is mostly due to the big 39 point game he had vs Indiana which is an outlier compared to the rest of the games he's played this season.

and he's already over 5 BPM. didn't take long.

5.1 is still not that high. What are you doing, trying to dunk on me or make a victory lap after Ace had a good game?

Grow up