Ace Bailey

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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#141 » by Hal14 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:51 pm

SeattleJazzFan wrote:
The-Power wrote:
Hal14 wrote:"Can play defense" is generous since he is prone to mistakes/lapses on the defensive end..and it's been a consistent issue with him, dating back to HS.

He is showing very strong and extended flashes and has become better over time. Consistency is a nice-to-have at this point but by no means a deal-breaker as long as the tools and the basic motor are there (which is the case for Bailey). The NBA will squeeze out his defensive potential as long as he's ready to accept his role.

Hal14 wrote:"can shoot" is generous since his 3 FG% is not that great, 3PA volume is good but not great, FT% is awful. Hard to find any good shooters in the NBA right now who shot 60% FT in college.

Does anyone actually believe he'll end up as a 60% FT shooter? His shooting touch is clearly to good for that. When you watch the games instead of just looking at basic boxscore metrics, it's also indisputable that he ‘can shoot’ considering the volume and degree of difficulty of his jump shots. His issue lies with him taking bad shots, not with his ability to shoot. The question with him is whether he can be a great shooter (in that regard I understand hesitancy in light of some of his early shooting indicators) or just a capable one – but he'll absolutely be someone who spaces the floor and makes opponents guard him at the perimeter in the NBA.


amen. all you have to do is watch games to understand the low FT% isn't going to last. he's 12 out of his last 15 FTs.

up to 37% from three on the season now.

again i would just caution people not to overthink Bailey.

He's a 6'9" wing with plus athleticism, a sweet stroke, defends (on ball and off ball - he's a SG who averages more blocks per game than Cooper Flagg - who had that on their bingo card?), plays hard consistently, rebounds his position, is productive and is one of the youngest freshmen in the class.

we can talk warts until we're blue in the face, but none of that will change those facts i just laid out.

1) Most of what you just said is your opinion - not fact.

2) who cares if he made 12 of his last 15 FTs? That's a tiny sample size. NBA GM's aren't drafting a guy based on 15 FTA. They're looking at the larger sample size which shows 60.6% FT, which is terrible. It's lower than all of these other guys - other than Sochan:

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3) He's at 36.7% from 3, I suppose you rounded up to 37 since you're biased and pushing an agenda..

4) Pretty much the only fact you said is that he's got more blocks per game than Cooper Flagg. That's great but JT Thor had a higher blocks % than both of them..guess he should have been the no. 1 pick?

Also, let's factor in the context, rather than just posting raw box score stats. Rutgers has no other rim protectors, which makes it easier for Ace to hunt blocks. Harder for Flagg to get blocks when he's playing next to maluach.

Plus, Duke has a much better perimeter defense than Rutgers has, which means it's harder for opponents to get shots near the rim vs Duke which means less opportunities for Flagg to get blocks, compared to Ace who gets lots of opportunities at blocks since its much easier for opponents to penetrate the Rutgers' defense and get shots near the rim.
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#142 » by EmpireFalls » Fri Jan 17, 2025 4:53 pm

Ace doesn’t need to be as good as Cooper Flagg to be a clear top 5 pick and an elite prospect.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#143 » by Hal14 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:33 pm

EmpireFalls wrote:Ace doesn’t need to be as good as Cooper Flagg to be a clear top 5 pick and an elite prospect.

No kidding..what does that have to do with anything?

And how does your post in any way prove that Ace is a "clear cut top 5 pick and elite prospect" ?
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#144 » by clyde21 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:04 pm

Hal14 wrote:
EmpireFalls wrote:Ace doesn’t need to be as good as Cooper Flagg to be a clear top 5 pick and an elite prospect.

No kidding..what does that have to do with anything?

And how does your post in any way prove that Ace is a "clear cut top 5 pick and elite prospect" ?


i mean, you have Ace ranked 9th overall right now, so you must think he does *something* well, no? judging by how you've been speaking about him in this thread I genuinely thought you had him outside the lotto if not worse.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#145 » by CptCrunch » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:12 pm

tontoz wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:That's all I needed to know about your opinion. Durant was at 8.8 WS, and predates stat collection before BPM. With Durant's efficiencies, he would easily be at 10+ BPM.

Ace is at 0.7 WS and 1.4 BPM.

No NBA player below 1 BPM has evern had an average or better career in the NBA: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13s3k6w/there_are_no_nba_prospects_who_i_can_find_who/

Ace is failing the statistical exam with several huge auto-fail red flags.



Any comment on Ace now that his BPM is 5.1?


Still bad. Next question.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#146 » by SeattleJazzFan » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:16 pm

Hal14 wrote:
SeattleJazzFan wrote:
Hal14 wrote:1) that's a big "if".. we'll see what happens..

2) The slight jump in his BPM is mostly due to the big 39 point game he had vs Indiana which is an outlier compared to the rest of the games he's played this season.


and he's already over 5 BPM. didn't take long.

5.1 is still not that high. What are you doing, trying to dunk on me or make a victory lap after Ace had a good game?

Grow up


you literally said that's a big if and we'll see when that happens. well it happened that night. just funny, that's all. relax.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#147 » by SeattleJazzFan » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:26 pm

Hal14 wrote:1) Most of what you just said is your opinion - not fact.



let's break it down:

He's a 6'9" wing with plus athleticism - that's a fact. (he's listed at 6'10" most places so i'm actually taking an inch off)

a sweet stroke - yes, that's an opinion, but one pretty much every basketball evaluator would agree with

defends (on ball and off ball - he's a SG who averages more blocks per game than Cooper Flagg - who had that on their bingo card?) you already conceded this. doesn't mean he's a better player than flagg, but for a SG, it's a feather in his cap.

plays hard consistently - sure it's an opinion, but anybody who watches him would have a hard time disagreeing and the rebounding and shot blocking numbers are characteristic of a wing who plays hard.

rebounds his position - averages 8 rebs a game. that's a fact.

is productive - fact. averages 19 and 8. that's production and can't be argued/

is one of the youngest freshmen in the class - turned 18 in August. he 100% is one of the youngest freshmen in the class. fact.

iow, most of what i said is fact, with a couple widely held "opinions" mixed in.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#148 » by tontoz » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:27 pm

CptCrunch wrote:
tontoz wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:That's all I needed to know about your opinion. Durant was at 8.8 WS, and predates stat collection before BPM. With Durant's efficiencies, he would easily be at 10+ BPM.

Ace is at 0.7 WS and 1.4 BPM.

No NBA player below 1 BPM has evern had an average or better career in the NBA: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13s3k6w/there_are_no_nba_prospects_who_i_can_find_who/

Ace is failing the statistical exam with several huge auto-fail red flags.



Any comment on Ace now that his BPM is 5.1?


Still bad. Next question.



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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#149 » by CptCrunch » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:31 pm

tontoz wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:
tontoz wrote:

Any comment on Ace now that his BPM is 5.1?


Still bad. Next question.



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His statistical profile still is terrible. I do concede his last few games have been great.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#150 » by EvanZ » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:35 pm

I don't know about Ace Bailey but Airious Bailey is great.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#151 » by Hal14 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:47 pm

SeattleJazzFan wrote:plus athleticism - that's a fact.

That's literally an opinion
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#152 » by clyde21 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:31 pm

i mean, other than FT%, his statistical profile at this point is almost exactly Jayson Tatum's coming out.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#153 » by Braggins » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:23 pm

I feel like it should go without saying that it was relevant that he had so many warts in his statistical profile, but its also obviously relevant that his issues seem to be getting ironed out a bit and his stat profile is starting to look better. Its possible he is just on a mini heater and regresses, but its also possible he is improving and could continue to improve. I'm curious to see how it plays out the rest of the season.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#154 » by CptCrunch » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:35 pm

I don't believe Ace's most optimistic median outcome is anything more than Brandon Miller or Jabari Smith of the January 2025 version, both of whom had better profiles while in college with fewer questions. This isn't a bad outcome, and if an oracle can guarantee this outcome, Ace is clearly #3.

The issue is that the above is the optimistic projection. In my opinion, his real median outcome is much lower as Ace has the worst shot diet, lowest basketball IQ and most red flags out of the 3 players above. (Let's not compare him to a borderline MVP candidate like Tatum, as we shouldn't project non generational prospects to MVP like players.)

Ace's putrid 60% something FT also leads me to believe he isn't actually that great at shooting and is rather on a hot streak, which can easily last 20-30 games in the NBA even in the NBA. I want my 'ace' shooters to hit mid 80's or low 90's ideally. For example, a good project able shooter would be Jaku, who is shooting 42/87 splits on high volume.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#155 » by Braggins » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:00 pm

I was watching some highlights from his recent games and I did think he reminded me a bit of Jabari Smith, but I wasn't sure if that made sense because I haven't watched any game action.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#156 » by clyde21 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 4:15 am

Jabari is different than any of these guys, Jabari is a 4/5, Miller is a 3/4 jumbo wing and that's the mold Ace is in, but with Andrew Wiggins type of athleticm.

i stand by Andrew Wiggins as the median outcome here, *maybe* Paul George if everything hits right for him.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#157 » by azcatz11 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 4:27 am

clyde21 wrote:Jabari is different than any of these guys, Jabari is a 4/5, Miller is a 3/4 jumbo wing and that's the mold Ace is in, but with Andrew Wiggins type of athleticm.

i stand by Andrew Wiggins as the median outcome here, *maybe* Paul George if everything hits right for him.


I don't really see any Jabari. He looks like Jabari and has a similar body but they don't play the same. Jabari was also literally 10x better in college than Ace could dream of. I can't really shake that out of my head when I look at Ace.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#158 » by JustBuzzin » Sat Jan 18, 2025 5:29 am

clyde21 wrote:Jabari is different than any of these guys, Jabari is a 4/5, Miller is a 3/4 jumbo wing and that's the mold Ace is in, but with Andrew Wiggins type of athleticm.

i stand by Andrew Wiggins as the median outcome here, *maybe* Paul George if everything hits right for him.

Miller is a 2/3 I can tell you don't watch Hornets games and that's understandable we suck lol

Yeah just had to correct you on that.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#159 » by clyde21 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 6:45 am

JustBuzzin wrote:
clyde21 wrote:Jabari is different than any of these guys, Jabari is a 4/5, Miller is a 3/4 jumbo wing and that's the mold Ace is in, but with Andrew Wiggins type of athleticm.

i stand by Andrew Wiggins as the median outcome here, *maybe* Paul George if everything hits right for him.

Miller is a 2/3 I can tell you don't watch Hornets games and that's understandable we suck lol

Yeah just had to correct you on that.


per bball ref he's played 74% of possessions at the 3, 23% at the 4, and 3% at the 5.

0% at the 2.

so either you're wrong or bball ref is wrong here.
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Re: Ace Bailey 

Post#160 » by babyjax13 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 6:50 am

clyde21 wrote:
JustBuzzin wrote:
clyde21 wrote:Jabari is different than any of these guys, Jabari is a 4/5, Miller is a 3/4 jumbo wing and that's the mold Ace is in, but with Andrew Wiggins type of athleticm.

i stand by Andrew Wiggins as the median outcome here, *maybe* Paul George if everything hits right for him.

Miller is a 2/3 I can tell you don't watch Hornets games and that's understandable we suck lol

Yeah just had to correct you on that.


per bball ref he's played 74% of possessions at the 3, 23% at the 4, and 3% at the 5.

0% at the 2.

so either you're wrong or bball ref is wrong here.

Bball references positional estimates often seem pretty off to me. Last season they say John Collins spent 13 percent of his time at center, but he was our starting center for all but about 20 games.
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JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.

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