Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Quattro]

Everyone knows you keep switching between using bWAR and fWAR depending on which one helps fit your narrative better.

seems relevant to quote bWAR here - that's the stat overvaluing Varsho because of DRS. OAA is a better stat for OFs.

Everyone is going to pick and choose stats that help them frame their arguments. There is no perfect stat.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Worth pointing out that our MVP Varsho was 3rd in the league in clutch situations this year. The anti-Chapman.

Also worth pointing out, Varsho's context neutral wins/situational wins (WPA/LI) is below average. So don't let SSS make you think he's a good (or even an average) hitter; or let bWAR fool you into thinking Varsho is a top 15 player - it only accounts for a small subset of plays defensively and heavily influenced by DRS for defensive value. That's why there a 1.6 difference between fWAR and bWAR for Varsho.

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If anything Varsho is being undervalued because the Jays played him in LF for no good reason for a large portion of the year. Might he actually be a top 10 player?

#JustaLeftFielder

Top 10 player for the Jays? Sure

[Randle McMurphy]

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[Mehar]

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Not everyone will be a fan of a everyday outfielder who hit below .200 for 5 months of the baseball season in 2024, and has been one of the worst hitting everyday regular players for the past two baseball seasons based on his hitting stats (regardless of how much of a great defender he is).

His atrocious BA, OPS, SLG and ON Base for the past two years takes away from his stellar defensive play; since you are still counting on this guy to come to the plate 4-5 times a game, and more often than not Varsho strikes out like a fool chasing high fastballs out of the strike zone. In a perfect world, you sell high on this guy coming off his great defensive year, and package him with Vlad for a stellar return to start the rebuild- but Atkins and Shapiro and the clowns that employ them, still think this team can make the playoffs in 2025 so that is out of the question.

[Harry Palmer]

What opinion of Varsho can we base upon his 8.2 million extension?

[Randle McMurphy]

What opinion of Varsho can we base upon his 8.2 million extension?

That we're getting him at a tremendous bargain for another season? He produced over 26M in value last year.

[brwnman]

He did not.

[Harry Palmer]

What opinion of Varsho can we base upon his 8.2 million extension?

That we're getting him at a tremendous bargain for another season? He produced over 26M in value last year.

Ah, so his agent can’t hit either?

[Randle McMurphy]

What opinion of Varsho can we base upon his 8.2 million extension?

That we're getting him at a tremendous bargain for another season? He produced over 26M in value last year.

Ah, so his agent can’t hit either?

He was arbitration eligible, there's a limit to what he'd have been awarded had he gone there.

[Randle McMurphy]

He did not.

$26.4M to be exact.

[brwnman]

He did not.

$26.4M to be exact.

Nope.

[Randle McMurphy]

He did not.

$26.4M to be exact.

Nope.

Yes.

[Duffman100]

$26.4M to be exact.

Nope.

Yes.

Wow, this overall debate really is worth continuing...

[Harry Palmer]

That we're getting him at a tremendous bargain for another season? He produced over 26M in value last year.

Ah, so his agent can’t hit either?

He was arbitration eligible, there's a limit to what he'd have been awarded had he gone there.

Sorry, can you expand on this point? Might have changed, but the only arbitration limitations I am aware of are the 20% cap on reduction. Aside from that the only limitations I know of are the player’s value to the club. If it’s 27.5 million, that is not beyond any limits I know of; Soto got like 32 million just last year. Can you explain why Varsho agreed to less than a third of his value to avoid arbitration? Surely it would have been a slam dunk at double (at least) that if the entire premise for your assessment of Varsho’s value is as self-evident as you tell us over and over and over and over and over and over and over and…you get the idea.

[Randle McMurphy]

Ah, so his agent can’t hit either?

He was arbitration eligible, there's a limit to what he'd have been awarded had he gone there.

Sorry, can you expand on this point? Might have changed, but the only arbitration limitations I am aware of are the 20% cap on reduction. Aside from that the only limitations I know of are the player’s value to the club. If it’s 27.5 million, that is not beyond any limits I know of; Soto got like 32 million just last year. Can you explain why Varsho agreed to less than a third of his value to avoid arbitration? Surely it would have been a slam dunk at double (at least) that if the entire premise for your assessment of Varsho’s value is as self-evident as you tell us over and over and over and over and over and over and over and…you get the idea.

What exactly is needed to be expanded on? If he had gone to arbitration, he'd have gotten around the exact same amount he got from the Jays. He wouldn't have accepted a one year deal for that amount otherwise. MLBTR's arb model had him at even less than he got (7.7M): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html

And if you don't think he's worth more than what he's being paid next season based on his defense alone, you're being intentionally obtuse. There aren't too many league average hitting CFs who play defense at a historically good level just lying around baseball.

[Skin Blues]

Ah, so his agent can’t hit either?

He was arbitration eligible, there's a limit to what he'd have been awarded had he gone there.

Sorry, can you expand on this point? Might have changed, but the only arbitration limitations I am aware of are the 20% cap on reduction. Aside from that the only limitations I know of are the player’s value to the club. If it’s 27.5 million, that is not beyond any limits I know of; Soto got like 32 million just last year. Can you explain why Varsho agreed to less than a third of his value to avoid arbitration? Surely it would have been a slam dunk at double (at least) that if the entire premise for your assessment of Varsho’s value is as self-evident as you tell us over and over and over and over and over and over and over and…you get the idea.

Players don't get awarded their actual value in arbitration, they get awarded an amount equal to similar players with comparable years of service. "Similar players" does not mean just WAR or wOBA, but generally a bunch of dinosaur stats, in addition to previous year's salary, stats in prior years, team performance, and a few others. It's been reverse engineered by Matt Swartz. Basically, your performance in the previous year determines a dollar value for how much of a raise you get, and that is added to your previous season's salary. Varsho was projected for $7.7M by that model and agreed to an $8.2M contract.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The idea that a bigger sample size and playing Varsho more in CF would have resulted in better production is just another case of hypothesizing to blame intangibles/management rather than admitting the limitation of the player(s) involved along with his strengths.

It's really easy to blame managers and management like that to fool yourself into reinforcing your belief that your favourite team has a hidden gem. The weird thing is that in this case it requires the unusual logical meandering whereby management actively realized the value of Varsho and traded for him and kept him while simultaneously not realizing his greatness and keeping him out of position most of the time.

Varsho is still pretty good and the best outfielder the team currently has. But is akin to NBA statheads back in the day arguing that Bruce Bowen was as good/better where wins were concerned than Duncan, Parker and Ginobili.

And if it's true he's really that good then I want him traded because surely at least a few GMs around the league would realize his greatness and value contract and want to give up a lot for him. He's 28 and the Jays are about the be run over by the Yankees again anyway while having a rather thin farm they've pillaged from as they "contended" the past few seasons.

[bartron_44]

Varsho is a #9 hitter on a good team, and really shouldn’t hit any higher than 7th in any lineup . Saying he’s worth 26.5M is like university calculus… exists only in an imaginary theoretical world..lmao

[agkagk]

I can’t lie Moreno reminds me of a young pudge Rodriguez.

Pudge took like 7 years to become pudge.

Moreno looks like he will too.

So, even if he turns into a hall of famer, we got varshos whole prime before Moreno breaks out.


Seems kinda even Steven to me

[Fairview4Life]

I can’t lie Moreno reminds me of a young pudge Rodriguez.

Pudge took like 7 years to become pudge.

Moreno looks like he will too.

So, even if he turns into a hall of famer, we got varshos whole prime before Moreno breaks out.


Seems kinda even Steven to me

How the hell does Moreno remind anyone of Ivan Rodriguez?

[agkagk]

I can’t lie Moreno reminds me of a young pudge Rodriguez.

Pudge took like 7 years to become pudge.

Moreno looks like he will too.

So, even if he turns into a hall of famer, we got varshos whole prime before Moreno breaks out.


Seems kinda even Steven to me

How the hell does Moreno remind anyone of Ivan Rodriguez?

Everything about him. His profile, movements, slow steady development, emerging all around talent, his mentality, his iq everything.