billy_hoyle wrote:ATLTimekeeper wrote:ItsDanger wrote:Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.
Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.
The stat is lagging. How is that not a flaw?
Extremely well regarded High school prospect, starts collegiate career with an injury. Goes on to play raw stat filled basketball on low efficiency for a team that isn't winning. Eye test is still there, as he's able to do things and hits shots that are ++ degree of difficulty. His ++ body is projectable (i.e he has great dimensions for his skill set, and looks like he will add lean muscle).
The stat was unable to predict that he would go from 0.3 BPM to over 5 in a few weeks.
As others have said, it is not predictive on small sample sizes.
If the draft was held at the 1/3rd mark of the NCAA season, you would have declared him almost certain bust and a 100% do not draft. Which is your stance from last month.
Let's be honest though. at the 1/3 mark he was hot garbage. Bad processing, bad shot selection, bad rebounding, bad defense, zero passing.
The fact that most people still had him top 5 or top 10 for the ones who really dropped his was pretty warranted.
It is great that Ace is playing far better now and is proving that he's one of the top 4 guys in this draft.
When you are 'mocking' or guessing where prospects should go production absolutely matters. Harper Flagg Yak and Demin all looked far superior in the first 10 games or so. Since then Harper has been consistent, Yak has been consistent. Flagg and Ace have shown improvement while guys like Demin VJ and CMB have shown that the hype might not have been warranted.
Still plenty of time for adjustments and guys will fall and rise as we get more data points.