YogurtProducer wrote:It is actually "very possible" that Chomche never plays a meaningful NBA minute in his life. In fact, the odds are VERY stacked against him and it is more likely he is is out of the league in 24 months than it is that he is a rotational piece.
If Chomche becomes Hartenstein that is like the top 1% of Chomche outcomes. That would be an insane development for the Raptors and would be one of the greatest late 2nd round picks of all time.
We just need to PUMP the breaks a bit here. Intriguing prospect? Yes. "very possible" to be better than IH? **** NO.
IH is probably a top 20 2nd rounder of all time (the list I found starts in 1977 when the first round went up to 20 players, seems fair, it was like 8 before then, had a top 10 and then 6 or 7 guys better than Hartenstein, and then it's sort of personal taste, you could have Hartenstein like 16th or 25th) so the odds that we've made a pick that good are always low.
That said, I'm optimistic on Chomche. He might never make it, like Bruno, if he's too much of a liability on O and just an average rebounder. But I'm definitely encouraged by him being a legit shotblocker (I think he's like 2nd or 3rd in the G-League per minute?) already, and he's not a stiff in terms of mobility and so far he isn't some weird Ayton/Koufos/Mullens big who's addicted to taking midrange shots he shouldn't. I think the odds are he'll be more skilled than Biyombo.
For some reason we've had very few shotblockers in the 30 seasons here. T-Mac's final season is the 5th highest single season blocks one we've had. Scottie's best year has him 11th. That seems crazy. I think we might just not be used to the value a generic shot blocking center can provide.
For Walter to get to 20M in value (in current money) he has to shoot 40% from 3 and play fairly good defence. The bar for a center is much lower, which I'm not sure makes sense. But we saw what we had to give up to get Poeltl, and how the Suns season has been derailed by terrible center play, and that we can't seem to win a game without Poeltl. Missi is a ROY contender and he's 18 months older than Chomche. Anchored the worst Baylor D in many years IIRC. Hopefully at the start of the 2026-27 season he's at Missi's current level.