Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Start to think that trading Rudy next season may be the idea from FO. Rudy is not playing well the way we play right now and if unfortunately we have to keep Randle, then this could be something FO do. Mistake on my opinion but....

[minimus]

Duren presents a path forward at C. He's only 21. While he's two years closer to his rookie extension talks, it might be an opportunity to get a different depreciated asset at a decent value.

Damn... I forgot Duren is only 19yo... He is basically a big man version of Dillingham in terms of development trajectory.

[minimus]

So I am starting to think that in terms of fit Randle, DET 2025 for Lonzo Ball and Jalen Smith makes too much sense to be ignored. Smith can play next to Rudy and can play as five out as backup big. If we resign Reid, Gobert-Smith-Reid trio covers all our needs for next 3-4 years. Lonzo had today 2-6 from field (all three point attempts), 3rbs, 3ast, 3stl and team best +16 in 24 minutes. Classic Lonzo game.

So a healthy Ball checks all the boxes for us:

- fights for 50/50 balls (rebounding issues)
- high effort, high IQ defense (fits defensive identity)
- initiate and run fast breaks (MIN one the worst teams in fast breaks)
- brings a lot of size (positional versatility can cover PG-SG-SF and protect Dillingham)
- shoots threes

My only question is whether TC will be able to resign Reid, NAW and Ball while staying under luxury tax. Keep in mind Jalen Smith contract in the books. If Lonzo stays healthy I'd offer him similarly to J.Isaac structured contract:

- first season is fully guaranteed
- second season is partially guaranteed
- third and fourth season non guaranteed

In terms of numbers I'd offer something like:

- first season is 6 mil
- second season is partially guaranteed 7 mil (2 mil guaranteed)
- third and fourth season non guaranteed 8 and 9.

So four years deal 28-30 mil.

[winforlose]

Start to think that trading Rudy next season may be the idea from FO. Rudy is not playing well the way we play right now and if unfortunately we have to keep Randle, then this could be something FO do. Mistake on my opinion but....

To be clear, I expect both to be traded. Rudy was brought in to the play with Karl. Ant has been very critical of Rudy. I wouldn’t mind holding onto Rudy and running more PNR (god knows it’s effective,) but I fear Ant will demand more 5 out structure and the means moving Rudy. Time will tell.

[BlacJacMac]

So I am starting to think that in terms of fit Randle, DET 2025 for Lonzo Ball and Jalen Smith makes too much sense to be ignored. Smith can play next to Rudy and can play as five out as backup big. If we resign Reid, Gobert-Smith-Reid trio covers all our needs for next 3-4 years. Lonzo had today 2-6 from field (all three point attempts), 3rbs, 3ast, 3stl and team best +16 in 24 minutes. Classic Lonzo game.

So a healthy Ball checks all the boxes for us:

- fights for 50/50 balls (rebounding issues)
- high effort, high IQ defense (fits defensive identity)
- initiate and run fast breaks (MIN one the worst teams in fast breaks)
- brings a lot of size (positional versatility can cover PG-SG-SF and protect Dillingham)
- shoots threes

My only question is whether TC will be able to resign Reid, NAW and Ball while staying under luxury tax. Keep in mind Jalen Smith contract in the books. If Lonzo stays healthy I'd offer him similarly to J.Isaac structured contract:

- first season is fully guaranteed
- second season is partially guaranteed
- third and fourth season non guaranteed

In terms of numbers I'd offer something like:

- first season is 6 mil
- second season is partially guaranteed 7 mil (2 mil guaranteed)
- third and fourth season non guaranteed 8 and 9.

So four years deal 28-30 mil.

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

[BlacJacMac]

Stupid question but one worth asking.

If we could move Randle and acquire a backup C and Dlo’s rights, is Dlo a bad fit on a good contract? If we could sign him for 13-14 with bird rights and still afford NAW and Naz, would you guys go for it? For our purposes let’s assume Randle is the only outgoing asset.

So we’d be trading the D’Lo of power forwards for the actual D’Lo?

Nah.

That is the exact thought that went through my head.

Did you see the end of the Lakers/Nets game last night?

Nets down 1. They get the defensive rebound with 18 seconds left.

D'Lo clanks a 25-foot 3 with 4 seconds left to end the game.

[winforlose]

So we’d be trading the D’Lo of power forwards for the actual D’Lo?

Nah.

That is the exact thought that went through my head.

Did you see the end of the Lakers/Nets game last night?

Nets down 1. They get the defensive rebound with 18 seconds left.

D'Lo clanks a 25-foot 3 with 4 seconds left to end the game.

Again I don’t think Dlo is a great player. I was asking if having him of a 13-14 million dollar is good value. I remember how inconsistent he was on offense and how bad he was on defense. That said, he can play PG well when needed, he can go off when needed, and having him on 13 or 14 means we can treat him like a role player and bench him if he goes beyond his role. I was just thinking that Dlo/Ant/Jaden/Naz/Rudy or Dlo/DDV/Ant/Jaden/Naz has some interesting potential. I don’t think Dlo gets much more than an MLE and I could see him being a bridge to Dilly the way Darnold was meant to bridge to JJ Mac.

One sample trade (by no means the only one,) is

Bagley to Nets
Randle to Pistons
Harris to Wiz
Dlo and JV to Wolves

Next year JV is 10 million expiring and Dlo is 13-14 we could move both for longer term fit players. We could also move Rudy if Ant demands it. Meanwhile we can sign Naz and NAW and stay under the 2nd apron. Of course second probably need to move in the sample but our only outgoing is Randle.

[minimus]

So I am starting to think that in terms of fit Randle, DET 2025 for Lonzo Ball and Jalen Smith makes too much sense to be ignored. Smith can play next to Rudy and can play as five out as backup big. If we resign Reid, Gobert-Smith-Reid trio covers all our needs for next 3-4 years. Lonzo had today 2-6 from field (all three point attempts), 3rbs, 3ast, 3stl and team best +16 in 24 minutes. Classic Lonzo game.

So a healthy Ball checks all the boxes for us:

- fights for 50/50 balls (rebounding issues)
- high effort, high IQ defense (fits defensive identity)
- initiate and run fast breaks (MIN one the worst teams in fast breaks)
- brings a lot of size (positional versatility can cover PG-SG-SF and protect Dillingham)
- shoots threes

My only question is whether TC will be able to resign Reid, NAW and Ball while staying under luxury tax. Keep in mind Jalen Smith contract in the books. If Lonzo stays healthy I'd offer him similarly to J.Isaac structured contract:

- first season is fully guaranteed
- second season is partially guaranteed
- third and fourth season non guaranteed

In terms of numbers I'd offer something like:

- first season is 6 mil
- second season is partially guaranteed 7 mil (2 mil guaranteed)
- third and fourth season non guaranteed 8 and 9.

So four years deal 28-30 mil.

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

Good point. Although I would still re-sign both to reasonable contract, build some redundancy aka depth. In best case scenario (NAW continues to play well and Lonzo stays healthy) trade NAW before deadline. I guess NAW on multi-year deal will have more value.

[BlacJacMac]

So I am starting to think that in terms of fit Randle, DET 2025 for Lonzo Ball and Jalen Smith makes too much sense to be ignored. Smith can play next to Rudy and can play as five out as backup big. If we resign Reid, Gobert-Smith-Reid trio covers all our needs for next 3-4 years. Lonzo had today 2-6 from field (all three point attempts), 3rbs, 3ast, 3stl and team best +16 in 24 minutes. Classic Lonzo game.

So a healthy Ball checks all the boxes for us:

- fights for 50/50 balls (rebounding issues)
- high effort, high IQ defense (fits defensive identity)
- initiate and run fast breaks (MIN one the worst teams in fast breaks)
- brings a lot of size (positional versatility can cover PG-SG-SF and protect Dillingham)
- shoots threes

My only question is whether TC will be able to resign Reid, NAW and Ball while staying under luxury tax. Keep in mind Jalen Smith contract in the books. If Lonzo stays healthy I'd offer him similarly to J.Isaac structured contract:

- first season is fully guaranteed
- second season is partially guaranteed
- third and fourth season non guaranteed

In terms of numbers I'd offer something like:

- first season is 6 mil
- second season is partially guaranteed 7 mil (2 mil guaranteed)
- third and fourth season non guaranteed 8 and 9.

So four years deal 28-30 mil.

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

Good point. Although I would still re-sign both to reasonable contract, build some redundancy aka depth. In best case scenario (NAW continues to play well and Lonzo stays healthy) trade NAW before deadline. I guess NAW on multi-year deal will have more value.

My worry is if you pay NAW a "market value" 15-20M/year, he's not going to be moveable as teams move farther and farther away form those mid-priced players.

NAW is a bargain at 5M, he's probably OK at 10M. Anything more than that and its a bad contract.

[winforlose]

So I am starting to think that in terms of fit Randle, DET 2025 for Lonzo Ball and Jalen Smith makes too much sense to be ignored. Smith can play next to Rudy and can play as five out as backup big. If we resign Reid, Gobert-Smith-Reid trio covers all our needs for next 3-4 years. Lonzo had today 2-6 from field (all three point attempts), 3rbs, 3ast, 3stl and team best +16 in 24 minutes. Classic Lonzo game.

So a healthy Ball checks all the boxes for us:

- fights for 50/50 balls (rebounding issues)
- high effort, high IQ defense (fits defensive identity)
- initiate and run fast breaks (MIN one the worst teams in fast breaks)
- brings a lot of size (positional versatility can cover PG-SG-SF and protect Dillingham)
- shoots threes

My only question is whether TC will be able to resign Reid, NAW and Ball while staying under luxury tax. Keep in mind Jalen Smith contract in the books. If Lonzo stays healthy I'd offer him similarly to J.Isaac structured contract:

- first season is fully guaranteed
- second season is partially guaranteed
- third and fourth season non guaranteed

In terms of numbers I'd offer something like:

- first season is 6 mil
- second season is partially guaranteed 7 mil (2 mil guaranteed)
- third and fourth season non guaranteed 8 and 9.

So four years deal 28-30 mil.

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

Good point. Although I would still re-sign both to reasonable contract, build some redundancy aka depth. In best case scenario (NAW continues to play well and Lonzo stays healthy) trade NAW before deadline. I guess NAW on multi-year deal will have more value.

Has NAW been playing well? I know he started well, but I cannot think of a good performance in the last few weeks, can you?

[BlacJacMac]

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

Good point. Although I would still re-sign both to reasonable contract, build some redundancy aka depth. In best case scenario (NAW continues to play well and Lonzo stays healthy) trade NAW before deadline. I guess NAW on multi-year deal will have more value.

Has NAW been playing well? I know he started well, but I cannot think of a good performance in the last few weeks, can you?

He's had a very rough January.

[shrink]

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

Agreed, and he would be the better outgoing asset than the DET pick.

Bulls are #22 in defense, and probably regret trading Caruso.

I also think internet boards undervalue Randle’s trade value with GMs. For whatever reason, the CHI GM and owner value making the playoffs, and Randle and NAW increase those chances. While NAW or the 1st are required in trades for internet fans, I would not be surprised at all if the deal went down with neither on it.

[Domejandro]

I maintain that Minnesota should get the Lottery-protected 2025 Portland First Round Draft Pick in a Julius Randle for Lonzo Ball and Jalen Smith swap.

I know people online disagree, but that’s where I currently stand on that trade idea.

[younggunsmn]

I just don't understand how Chicago would go from trying to get assets for a good player like Vucevic to wanting to add Julius Randle and his contract.
I don't see them as a destination for him much less giving up a draft pick.

[shrink]

I just don't understand how Chicago would go from trying to get assets for a good player like Vucevic to wanting to add Julius Randle and his contract.
I don't see them as a destination for him much less giving up a draft pick.

I think there are two separate things. What CHI should do, and what CHI continues to do.

What CHI should do is rebuild. They have no superstar, they aren’t a free agent destination, and they end in the middle of the pack, clawing to get into the Play In tournament. Every year, we think they are finally going to make that move, we hear rumors about trading for future assets, and what they “Do” is hold onto mediocre talent. Jerry Reinsdorf is a cheap owner, and I have this sick feeling that with Zach LaVine playing so well, and no rumored trades in sight, he’s going to want to get a little more revenue from a couple other post-season games.

If the team’s goal is to win games, Randle isn’t a bad fit for them. Once they traded Caruso, their defense wasn’t going to be good anyway, (should have forced a pick or two out of OKC), but Randle and Vucevic can work together offensively. PF is probably their biggest need with neither Pat Williams (with that extension!) or Jalen Smith really lighting the world on fire.

I’m with you, that this is not a deal CHI should do. But “will do?” I don’t know.

[Loaf_of_bread]

I just don't understand how Chicago would go from trying to get assets for a good player like Vucevic to wanting to add Julius Randle and his contract.
I don't see them as a destination for him much less giving up a draft pick.

I think there are two separate things. What CHI should do, and what CHI continues to do.

What CHI should do is rebuild. They have no superstar, they aren’t a free agent destination, and they end in the middle of the pack, clawing to get into the Play In tournament. Every year, we think they are finally going to make that move, we hear rumors about trading for future assets, and what they “Do” is hold onto mediocre talent. Jerry Reinsdorf is a cheap owner, and I have this sick feeling that with Zach LaVine playing so well, and no rumored trades in sight, he’s going to want to get a little more revenue from a couple other post-season games.

If the team’s goal is to win games, Randle isn’t a bad fit for them. Their defense wasn’t going to be good anyway, (should have forced a pick or two out of OKC), but Randle and Vucevic can work together offensively. PF is probably their biggest need with neither Pat Williams (with that extension!) or Jalen Smith really lighting the world on fire.

I’m with you, that this is not a deal CHI should do. But “will do?” I don’t know.

The proposition of Randle and winning games is funny.

I am thinking with certainty that randle got butthurt he didn't get an extension, and made the decision to take this year off, knowing he can take the PO.

[minimus]

Good point. Although I would still re-sign both to reasonable contract, build some redundancy aka depth. In best case scenario (NAW continues to play well and Lonzo stays healthy) trade NAW before deadline. I guess NAW on multi-year deal will have more value.

Has NAW been playing well? I know he started well, but I cannot think of a good performance in the last few weeks, can you?

He's had a very rough January.

Yeah, games like today remind me how streaky shooter he is. When he is red hot from 3pt he is worth full MLE, when he is not, he is a 7-8mil player.

[minimus]

If Ball is healthy, he makes NAW completely redundant.

Good point. Although I would still re-sign both to reasonable contract, build some redundancy aka depth. In best case scenario (NAW continues to play well and Lonzo stays healthy) trade NAW before deadline. I guess NAW on multi-year deal will have more value.

My worry is if you pay NAW a "market value" 15-20M/year, he's not going to be moveable as teams move farther and farther away form those mid-priced players.

NAW is a bargain at 5M, he's probably OK at 10M. Anything more than that and its a bad contract.

Yep, NAW has more value for us because of team chemistry, defensive identity and loyalty. But MIN already have DDV for can play some NAWs minutes, and Clark who is the next defensive prospect in development queue. Tough decision, but I am kind of preparing myself for the moment NAW leaves this team. Trading Randle for Ball and Smith will give TC options moving forward:

1) Re-sign all three Reid, NAW, Ball to reasonable contracts, move NAW later

2) Re-sign Reid and one of NAW/Ball depends on Ball health and NAW market value

My ideal scenario would be re-signing all three, and adding a rotation wing by trading NAW by 2026 trade deadline.

[BlacJacMac]

Has NAW been playing well? I know he started well, but I cannot think of a good performance in the last few weeks, can you?

He's had a very rough January.

Yeah, games like today remind me how streaky shooter he is. When he is red hot from 3pt he is worth full MLE, when he is not, he is a 7-8mil player.

And when he's not hot from 3, he gives you nothing on offense. He has no ability to create for himself or others.

[winforlose]

He's had a very rough January.

Yeah, games like today remind me how streaky shooter he is. When he is red hot from 3pt he is worth full MLE, when he is not, he is a 7-8mil player.

And when he's not hot from 3, he gives you nothing on offense. He has no ability to create for himself or others.

NAW gives you defense and 3 point shooting. When the shot is not falling in theory the space is what he provides. That being true, NAW is bad off the dribble, his handle is not good enough to deal with real pressure, and his finishing package needs work. All of this being true, his defense and ability to get through screens is what will drive up his price. The question is how much.