ImageImageImageImage

Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black?

Moderators: UCF, Knightro, UCFJayBird, Def Swami, Howard Mass, ChosenSavior

SHAQ32
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,475
And1: 3,163
Joined: Mar 21, 2013
 

Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#1 » by SHAQ32 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 10:03 am

Picked 6th, but ranks in his draft class:

23rd in Win Shares per 48
24th in BPM
41st in VORP

And I know a lot of people will point to age. As someone who has been watching the NBA for over 30 years, age is what keeps the proverbial NBA world going around but is really a crutch. A lot of guys, whether they're 19, 20, 21, or whatever, most of them show it from day 1. Only a very, very, very small percentage play at the level Anthony Black has so far and eventually develop into quality starter level players or better.

I like how coach is starting to hold him accountable and adjusting his minutes. If we're trying to win, he cannot continue playing 24+ minutes. Even if we're injured. We cannot continue to play 4 on 5 on offense.
User avatar
Blue_and_Whte
RealGM
Posts: 24,601
And1: 9,516
Joined: Jun 26, 2009
Location: Orlando, FL.
     

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#2 » by Blue_and_Whte » Sun Jan 19, 2025 10:11 am

SHAQ32 wrote:Picked 6th, but ranks in his draft class:

23rd in Win Shares per 48
24th in BPM
41st in VORP

And I know a lot of people will point to age. As someone who has been watching the NBA for over 30 years, age is what keeps the proverbial NBA world going around, but it's really a crutch. A lot of guys, whether they're 19, 20, 21, or whatever, most of them show it from day 1. Only a very, very, very small percentage play at the level of Anthony Black has so far and eventually develop into quality starter level players or better.

I tend to think age plays a factor. He just does stuff like dribble into traffic, pick up his dribble. He doesn’t have advanced handles, has good instincts on defense. So I think there is something to say when discussing age but I don’t put as much behind it as some do.
I’ve also watched the NBA for over 30 years and guys that have it just do. You see more flashes more often than what Black has shown so far.
Faith, Family, & Orlando Magic
#2A
#Adopt
#MAGA
SHAQ32
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,475
And1: 3,163
Joined: Mar 21, 2013
 

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#3 » by SHAQ32 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 10:15 am

Blue_and_Whte wrote:
SHAQ32 wrote:Picked 6th, but ranks in his draft class:

23rd in Win Shares per 48
24th in BPM
41st in VORP

And I know a lot of people will point to age. As someone who has been watching the NBA for over 30 years, age is what keeps the proverbial NBA world going around, but it's really a crutch. A lot of guys, whether they're 19, 20, 21, or whatever, most of them show it from day 1. Only a very, very, very small percentage play at the level of Anthony Black has so far and eventually develop into quality starter level players or better.

I tend to think age plays a factor. He just does stuff like dribble into traffic, pick up his dribble. He doesn’t have advanced handles, has good instincts on defense. So I think there is something to say when discussing age but I don’t put as much behind it as some do.

Much more often than not, good instincts/awareness are something you're born with. It isn't something that age can change. You cannot go from having bad instincts to having good instincts in a couple of years. As a matter of fact, you're awareness and instincts dwindle as you age.

But take someone like our beloved Penny for example. You cannot teach that court vision, hand/eye coordination, and awareness. That's something you're born with.
User avatar
Blue_and_Whte
RealGM
Posts: 24,601
And1: 9,516
Joined: Jun 26, 2009
Location: Orlando, FL.
     

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#4 » by Blue_and_Whte » Sun Jan 19, 2025 10:54 am

SHAQ32 wrote:
Blue_and_Whte wrote:
SHAQ32 wrote:Picked 6th, but ranks in his draft class:

23rd in Win Shares per 48
24th in BPM
41st in VORP

And I know a lot of people will point to age. As someone who has been watching the NBA for over 30 years, age is what keeps the proverbial NBA world going around, but it's really a crutch. A lot of guys, whether they're 19, 20, 21, or whatever, most of them show it from day 1. Only a very, very, very small percentage play at the level of Anthony Black has so far and eventually develop into quality starter level players or better.

I tend to think age plays a factor. He just does stuff like dribble into traffic, pick up his dribble. He doesn’t have advanced handles, has good instincts on defense. So I think there is something to say when discussing age but I don’t put as much behind it as some do.

Much more often than not, good instincts/awareness are something you're born with. It isn't something that age can change. You cannot go from having bad instincts to having good instincts in a couple of years. As a matter of fact, you're awareness and instincts dwindle as you age.

But take someone like our beloved Penny for example. You cannot teach that court vision, hand/eye coordination, and awareness. That's something you're born with.

No, it can’t be taught. His whole time here I kept saying that Bamba lacks instincts on both sides of the ball but he was “our center of the future, because blocks yo.” So i agree that instincts can’t be taught but to be fair his decision making can improve through reps.
I will say this, and it’s an unpopular take, but I have a harder time with the idea of trading Jett than I do AB. I feel that at full strength he could be more valuable with how he shoots than AB. He needs no space to get that shot off.
IMO we should have the shooters the Bucks have based on how our two stars play.
Faith, Family, & Orlando Magic
#2A
#Adopt
#MAGA
User avatar
KillMonger
RealGM
Posts: 20,408
And1: 11,024
Joined: Oct 13, 2012
     

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#5 » by KillMonger » Sun Jan 19, 2025 10:57 am

SHAQ32 wrote:
Blue_and_Whte wrote:
SHAQ32 wrote:Picked 6th, but ranks in his draft class:

23rd in Win Shares per 48
24th in BPM
41st in VORP

And I know a lot of people will point to age. As someone who has been watching the NBA for over 30 years, age is what keeps the proverbial NBA world going around, but it's really a crutch. A lot of guys, whether they're 19, 20, 21, or whatever, most of them show it from day 1. Only a very, very, very small percentage play at the level of Anthony Black has so far and eventually develop into quality starter level players or better.

I tend to think age plays a factor. He just does stuff like dribble into traffic, pick up his dribble. He doesn’t have advanced handles, has good instincts on defense. So I think there is something to say when discussing age but I don’t put as much behind it as some do.

Much more often than not, good instincts/awareness are something you're born with. It isn't something that age can change. You cannot go from having bad instincts to having good instincts in a couple of years. As a matter of fact, you're awareness and instincts dwindle as you age.

But take someone like our beloved Penny for example. You cannot teach that court vision, hand/eye coordination, and awareness. That's something you're born with.
Actually..... I think AB's feel for the game is pretty good but he has no confidence.... There's flashes you see that you can understand why he was picked.... But at this point all there is are flashes at least on one side of the ball.... But at 20 what do you expect?

Sent from my [Hands] using RealGM mobile app
Image
The-Stallion70
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,905
And1: 685
Joined: Mar 22, 2022

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#6 » by The-Stallion70 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:36 pm

Overanalyzed high pick taken too high realgm obsessed with him. Cam Whitmore would have been a better pick at both 6 and 11 and he was taken 20th.

People got the blinders on when talking about him just like Elfrid before him.

He's not really a bad NBA player he's just not really a particularly good one either and thats what you're going for when you pick in the top half of the lottery.
California Gold wrote:This is extra because people hate the Lakers and their brand so much.

This trade wasn't some conspiracy - it was just a GM wanting AD bad enough where in most people's eyes he overpaid by a long shot to get him.
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 26,209
And1: 7,351
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#7 » by RookieStar » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:56 pm

Why? Simple... everyone here is scared of eyriq and if eyriq says AB is the real OG then AB can do no wronf
three3d
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,844
And1: 550
Joined: Jun 18, 2012

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#8 » by three3d » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:08 pm

10-15 years down the road I’m afraid we will look back on the 2023 draft and realize just how wrong they got it and how big of an opportunity it really was to put two lottery picks next to Paolo and Franz. It feels like Weltman was just throwing sh*t at the wall waiting to see what would stick. And even know we are “evaluating “ this team still smh.

I’ve said before I really wish they’d just let AB play in Osceola for a little bit. Let him figure out what his strengths are and craft his game. Speaking of strength he MUST stay in the weight room this summer. He seems to be good at getting to the rim right now but he’s not fast enough or strong enough yet so that will help him a lot.
SHAQ32
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,475
And1: 3,163
Joined: Mar 21, 2013
 

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#9 » by SHAQ32 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:22 pm

RookieStar wrote:Why? Simple... everyone here is scared of eyriq and if eyriq says AB is the real OG then AB can do no wronf

Ha good one rookie
User avatar
AdamTheGreek
RealGM
Posts: 41,175
And1: 2,359
Joined: Dec 30, 2006
Location: Orlando, FL. Thinking of Greece.
         

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#10 » by AdamTheGreek » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:52 pm

Any AB criticism should be directed at the front office and coaching staff. Not his fault he was the 6th pick.

He showed great talent when we threw him in with our guard injuries his rookie season.
He lost minutes after the Black Dick pic when he was playing solid and improving (especially on 3s).
He wasn’t given an important development opportunity as he only saw 10 minutes in the entire Cavs series while we watched Cole and Fultz struggle.

He turns 21 tomorrow, he’s good, he just needs more reps. And keep getting stronger (we’ve seen a big difference already this season). He had a few injuries this season that didn’t help.
And yet Cole is undeservedly getting way more starts over AB.

I have pretty high belief that AB will eventually be our starting PG with Suggs sliding to SG and Kenny either coming off the bench or not being on the team.
Bluesky: @adampapageorgiou.bsky.social
Penny & Pops Podcast (Orlando Magic): https://soundcloud.com/137665379
User avatar
AdamTheGreek
RealGM
Posts: 41,175
And1: 2,359
Joined: Dec 30, 2006
Location: Orlando, FL. Thinking of Greece.
         

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#11 » by AdamTheGreek » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:53 pm

Any AB criticism should be directed at the front office and coaching staff. Not his fault he was the 6th pick.

He showed great talent when we threw him in with our guard injuries.
He lost minutes after the Black Dick pic when he was playing solid and improving (especially on 3s).
He wasn’t given an important development opportunity as he only saw 10 minutes in the entire Cavs series while we watched Cole and Fultz struggle.

He turns 21, he’s good, he just needs more reps.
And yet Cole is undeservedly getting starts over AB.

I have pretty high belief that AB will eventually be our starting PG with Suggs sliding to SG and Kenny and either coming off the bench or not being on the team.
Bluesky: @adampapageorgiou.bsky.social
Penny & Pops Podcast (Orlando Magic): https://soundcloud.com/137665379
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 38,734
And1: 8,764
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#12 » by drsd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:53 pm

three3d wrote:10-15 years down the road I’m afraid we will look back on the 2023 draft and realize just how wrong they got it



There was never going to be a starting postion for these two picks, keeping either was a poor move in my opinion, and keeping both was bad managment.

and how big of an opportunity it really was to put two lottery picks next to Paolo and Franz.


I just don't agree with this. When the Magic drafted, Orlando needed a starting SG. There were loads of trade-availanle starting guards for the 6 and 11.]

My point: 6 and 11 are not draft slots to fill up a bench roster. But that is what Orlando decided to do.
User avatar
VFX
RealGM
Posts: 17,886
And1: 15,736
Joined: May 30, 2016

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#13 » by VFX » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:31 pm

In an ideal world AB is starting next to Suggs in the back court in a year or two.

Unfortunately I just don’t think he’s that good of a player from what I’ve seen. Just not impactful enough yet.

Hes a very good defender that can make plays in transition and make good reads sometimes. That’s it. He loses positional size advantage playing anywhere except point guard. The problem is that he’s just not a distributor or scorer on league level required for starters.

It’s just extremely difficult to justify AB in a starting lineup next to Suggs if he isn’t absolutely killing it from spot up 3’s or racking up a lot of assists. He really doesn’t do either of those things super proficiently.

I don’t really care what people say.. where you are drafted matters. Why? Because there are expectations in a world where everyone gets a trophy. Thats the pecking order when comparing the value of prospects.

ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, he is just turning 21 and maybe he hits some extra gear next season. He has to take a massive jump in 3pt volume and % OR become a difference maker on offense setting guys up. You can’t be a starting point guard in the league without doing either of those things and rely on being a very good defender with length. Thats a bench player.
three3d
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,844
And1: 550
Joined: Jun 18, 2012

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#14 » by three3d » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:48 pm

drsd wrote:
three3d wrote:10-15 years down the road I’m afraid we will look back on the 2023 draft and realize just how wrong they got it



There was never going to be a starting postion for these two picks, keeping either was a poor move in my opinion, and keeping both was bad managment.

and how big of an opportunity it really was to put two lottery picks next to Paolo and Franz.


I just don't agree with this. When the Magic drafted, Orlando needed a starting SG. There were loads of trade-availanle starting guards for the 6 and 11.]

My point: 6 and 11 are not draft slots to fill up a bench roster. But that is what Orlando decided to do.


Exactly you don’t use 6 and 11 to fill your bench, that’s HORRIBLE mismanagement of assets. Imagine having Cason Wallace next to Suggs now, hell even Lively at center. Jett in all honesty might become if he isn’t already the most controversial draft pick we’ve made since Fran Vasquez. They had to hit one of those picks minimally for a quality starter given the need at PG and SG where so painfully clear.
basketballRob
RealGM
Posts: 35,004
And1: 13,416
Joined: May 05, 2014
     

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#15 » by basketballRob » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:15 pm

Delete
Idiosyncratic
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,549
And1: 599
Joined: Dec 07, 2024
 

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#16 » by Idiosyncratic » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:34 pm

This is where I will somewhat level with the "trade the picks" people. In my world AB should be getting 32 minutes every night. The fact that sometimes Mosley has him behind Cole and even Queen for a few games is ridiculous. The ultimate upside of this team is going to be more likely to be hit by AB developing properly. They should be willing to lose a couple of extra games to have him develop. So if Mosley is going to be win-now to the point where he won't let AB and even Jett to a lesser extent grow through their warts I can understand the people who want to move the picks. I don't agree with it, but I understand y'all.

That being said, 24 minutes a night is not terrible and I think he has shown enough to still be very excited about.
User avatar
rcklsscognition
RealGM
Posts: 22,324
And1: 7,395
Joined: Mar 23, 2009
Contact:
 

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#17 » by rcklsscognition » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:56 pm

Skinny, timid, immature
Image
The-Stallion70
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,905
And1: 685
Joined: Mar 22, 2022

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#18 » by The-Stallion70 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:49 pm

three3d wrote:10-15 years down the road I’m afraid we will look back on the 2023 draft and realize just how wrong they got it and how big of an opportunity it really was to put two lottery picks next to Paolo and Franz. It feels like Weltman was just throwing sh*t at the wall waiting to see what would stick. And even know we are “evaluating “ this team still smh.



Yea i feel like we could probably be contending tight now if Weltman hadn't blown so many picks.

Presti finds Jalen Willians at 12. Weltman finds guys like Bamba, Jett and Black at 6 and 11.
California Gold wrote:This is extra because people hate the Lakers and their brand so much.

This trade wasn't some conspiracy - it was just a GM wanting AD bad enough where in most people's eyes he overpaid by a long shot to get him.
User avatar
BadMofoPimp
RealGM
Posts: 48,670
And1: 12,346
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
Location: In the Paint

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#19 » by BadMofoPimp » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:49 pm

Same reason people weren't more critical of Bamba his first 2 years in the league. They dreamed of a dominate center replacing Vooch.
Image

Provin Ya'll Wrong!!!
User avatar
eyriq
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 32,894
And1: 9,087
Joined: Mar 25, 2008
Location: #TheLab
Contact:
 

Re: Why isn't this board more critical of Anthony Black? 

Post#20 » by eyriq » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:51 pm

Looking at the Basketball Reference draft summary page you can see total, shooting, per game, and advanced stats for everyone in that draft. I think if you ranked that draft by those stats you could end up with a top 20 that looks like this:

1: Victor Wembanyama
2: Amen Thompson
3: Dereck Lively II
4: Brandon Miller
5: Brandin Podziemski
6: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
7: Trayce Jackson-Davis
8: Keyonte George
9: Cason Wallace
10: Scoot Henderson
11: Toumani Camara
12: Bilal Coulibaly
13: Ausar Thompson
14: Marcus Sasser
15: Gradey Dick
16: Anthony Black
17: Cam Whitmore
18: GG Jackson II
19: Jalen Wilson
20: Kris Murray

So could you critique Anthony Black? Sure. He's only 16th in a ranking by overall productivity. Amen, Keyonte, Cason, Scoot, Ausar, and even Sasser have all been more productive.

What has held AB back? He's young, as a rookie he was placed in a narrow and specialized role, and as a sophomore he's playing off the bench.

This analysis doesn't capture his defensive contributions, which more than compensates for his lack in productivity IMO.

I don't critique him because I think that most of the board is against him, either because they loved Fultz and saw AB as a threat or hated Fultz and saw AB as a clone.

Return to Orlando Magic