Patrick Williams is having his worst year

[Dez]

I got a board warning for being too positive and optimistic about this team. This is where this fan base is right now. Something needs to change.

PWill had a fine December and November. He is just 23 and has a skillset. That translates well. The head is the easiest thing to change.

Not about the team......about the one specific player that is looking really bad. Objectively speaking is having his worst year.
The two months of exceptional play for him that you are touting were nothing outstanding for most starting PF's.

Also, the head/heart is the absolute hardest thing to change. If it were that easy, Eddy Curry would be on his way to the HOF. Very few people are able to change to base personality and "fire in their belly".

The best possible chance for Pat to have made an internal change (if possible) would required trading him (before being re-signed) and then his new team not opting to re-sign him. Maybe if he is starting at being out of the league (or bouncing around for near minimum), he might decide to get it together......maybe.

How is the head/heart harder to change than athleticism? Quickness? Size? Length?

I didn't say it was exceptional play.....I said it was "FINE". ITs clearly not exceptional, but his January isn't his season and his season isn't his past or future career.

Fine isn't good enough, he's being paid 20 million to be better than fine (which he wasn't anyway).
His January is his past and future career because this has been his career and there's been no development just regression.

[2weekswithpay]

Just curious, do people have a bigger problem with how he's playing offensively for a 5th option or more of a problem that he is (and has been) a 5th option for us (on his contract)?

If the latter, what should a 5th option make?

If the former, what should a 5th option produce?

How he's playing for me. 5th options can produce anywhere from 8-12ppg so the issue is more about offensive scheming than production.

Ideally, you want your 5th option to just stay out of the way and let the main guys run the show. KCP was a great 5th option because he was competent enough offensively to punish teams that left him open or overhelped. He could also run DHOs with Jokic if the ball swung to his side of the court. KCP isn't a great offensive player but he doesn't get in the way which is great for his role.

Teams don't have to respect/guard Pat which makes him a bad 5th option despite him being more aggressive and some improvements in his decision making.

[League Circles]

Not about the team......about the one specific player that is looking really bad. Objectively speaking is having his worst year.
The two months of exceptional play for him that you are touting were nothing outstanding for most starting PF's.

Also, the head/heart is the absolute hardest thing to change. If it were that easy, Eddy Curry would be on his way to the HOF. Very few people are able to change to base personality and "fire in their belly".

The best possible chance for Pat to have made an internal change (if possible) would required trading him (before being re-signed) and then his new team not opting to re-sign him. Maybe if he is starting at being out of the league (or bouncing around for near minimum), he might decide to get it together......maybe.

How is the head/heart harder to change than athleticism? Quickness? Size? Length?

I didn't say it was exceptional play.....I said it was "FINE". ITs clearly not exceptional, but his January isn't his season and his season isn't his past or future career.

Fine isn't good enough, he's being paid 20 million to be better than fine (which he wasn't anyway).
His January is his past and future career because this has been his career and there's been no development just regression.

He's being paid 18 million, not 20, for this season and each of the next 3 or 4. He's a career 40% three point shooter on decent volume and he's one of our best defenders. He's shooting .286 from three in January. So no, it's not at all his past career.

[League Circles]

Fun fact - Patrick has a higher career 3pt% than Zach Lavine has in either his career or his Bulls career.

[panthermark]

I got a board warning for being too positive and optimistic about this team. This is where this fan base is right now. Something needs to change.

PWill had a fine December and November. He is just 23 and has a skillset. That translates well. The head is the easiest thing to change.

Not about the team......about the one specific player that is looking really bad. Objectively speaking is having his worst year.
The two months of exceptional play for him that you are touting were nothing outstanding for most starting PF's.

Also, the head/heart is the absolute hardest thing to change. If it were that easy, Eddy Curry would be on his way to the HOF. Very few people are able to change to base personality and "fire in their belly".

The best possible chance for Pat to have made an internal change (if possible) would required trading him (before being re-signed) and then his new team not opting to re-sign him. Maybe if he is starting at being out of the league (or bouncing around for near minimum), he might decide to get it together......maybe.

How is the head/heart harder to change than athleticism? Quickness? Size? Length?

I didn't say it was exceptional play.....I said it was "FINE". ITs clearly not exceptional, but his January isn't his season and his season isn't his past or future career.

Because your head and heart allows you to increase your skill and effort. You can't teach motivation and intensity.

Plus, any player can get physically stronger.

[Dez]

How is the head/heart harder to change than athleticism? Quickness? Size? Length?

I didn't say it was exceptional play.....I said it was "FINE". ITs clearly not exceptional, but his January isn't his season and his season isn't his past or future career.

Fine isn't good enough, he's being paid 20 million to be better than fine (which he wasn't anyway).
His January is his past and future career because this has been his career and there's been no development just regression.

He's being paid 18 million, not 20, for this season and each of the next 3 or 4. He's a career 40% three point shooter on decent volume and he's one of our best defenders. He's shooting .286 from three in January. So no, it's not at all his past career.

My mistake 18 million.

He's shooting 40% on 3 attempts a game for his career and he's increased that volume to nearly 5 a game this season and his percentages dropped to 36%.

We are literally better with him off the floor, substantially better.

Fun fact, LaVine takes more 3s than Williams and more difficult 3s at that.

7 a game this season at 45% and 6 a game for his career at 39%. So double the volume and yet only 1% lower.

[League Circles]

Fine isn't good enough, he's being paid 20 million to be better than fine (which he wasn't anyway).
His January is his past and future career because this has been his career and there's been no development just regression.

He's being paid 18 million, not 20, for this season and each of the next 3 or 4. He's a career 40% three point shooter on decent volume and he's one of our best defenders. He's shooting .286 from three in January. So no, it's not at all his past career.

My mistake 18 million.

He's shooting 40% on 3 attempts a game for his career and he's increased that volume to nearly 5 a game this season and his percentages dropped to 36%.

We are literally better with him off the floor, substantially better.

Fun fact, LaVine takes more 3s than Williams and more difficult 3s at that.

7 a game this season at 45% and 6 a game for his career at 39%. So double the volume and yet only 1% lower.

It's not a fun fact if it's what people already would have guessed. Also you should use per 100 or per 36 numbers to make it a fair comparison.

[HomoSapien]

Good timing on this thread.

:pats self on back:

Oh please, this is just a cheap offshoot of my Pat can't dunk thread. I demand that you rescind the pat you gave yourself immediately.

[Dez]

He's being paid 18 million, not 20, for this season and each of the next 3 or 4. He's a career 40% three point shooter on decent volume and he's one of our best defenders. He's shooting .286 from three in January. So no, it's not at all his past career.

My mistake 18 million.

He's shooting 40% on 3 attempts a game for his career and he's increased that volume to nearly 5 a game this season and his percentages dropped to 36%.

We are literally better with him off the floor, substantially better.

Fun fact, LaVine takes more 3s than Williams and more difficult 3s at that.

7 a game this season at 45% and 6 a game for his career at 39%. So double the volume and yet only 1% lower.

It's not a fun fact if it's what people already would have guessed. Also you should use per 100 or per 36 numbers to make it a fair comparison.

Why? Pat doesn't play those minutes because he's not productive in the minutes he does get.

[Ice Man]

I mean, this is ridiculous. Pat is awful. He's worse than Jason Caffey and Dickey Simpkins. If neither the franchise nor the fans can see that, we're going to spend eternity being nobodies. Like, forever and ever.

We MUST aim higher by clearing our roster of players who have no future. Everything else is just a waste. It's like continuing to date somebody when you know the relationship can't work, but you can't bring yourself to break it off.

[League Circles]

I mean, this is ridiculous. Pat is awful. He's worse than Jason Caffey and Dickey Simpkins. If neither the franchise nor the fans can see that, we're going to spend eternity being nobodies. Like, forever and ever.

We MUST aim higher by clearing our roster of players who have no future. Everything else is just a waste. It's like continuing to date somebody when you know the relationship can't work, but you can't bring yourself to break it off.

Something tells me you're not a big believer in "defense is half the game", right? Patrick is outright good (not great) at half the game. Yes, he's definitely playing poorly offensively right now and has never been good offensively, though is a good career 3 point shooter. If defense is half the game (it is!), he's not awful, at least not career to date.

Think of it this way, he's roughly as good on D as Giddey is on offense, and roughly as bad on offense as Giddey is on defense. Career to date I might even say Patrick is better on offense than Giddey is on defense.

[dougthonus]

Something tells me you're not a big believer in "defense is half the game", right? Patrick is outright good (not great) at half the game.

He isn't though. He's a terrible help defender and team defender. He doesn't box out. Guys just walk straight around him. He has numerous huge flaws on defense, and his slow footedness this year has made him pretty mediocre even in point of attack defense which used to be his strength, but even when he was good at point of attack defense, he still had those other flaws which balanced out his overall defensive impact to meh.

[Infinity2152]

I mean, this is ridiculous. Pat is awful. He's worse than Jason Caffey and Dickey Simpkins. If neither the franchise nor the fans can see that, we're going to spend eternity being nobodies. Like, forever and ever.

We MUST aim higher by clearing our roster of players who have no future. Everything else is just a waste. It's like continuing to date somebody when you know the relationship can't work, but you can't bring yourself to break it off.

Something tells me you're not a big believer in "defense is half the game", right? Patrick is outright good (not great) at half the game. Yes, he's definitely playing poorly offensively right now and has never been good offensively, though is a good career 3 point shooter. If defense is half the game (it is!), he's not awful, at least not career to date.

Think of it this way, he's roughly as good on D as Giddey is on offense, and roughly as bad on offense as Giddey is on defense. Career to date I might even say Patrick is better on offense than Giddey is on defense.

I'm with you, because every single article ever written about Patrick Williams refer to him being a good defender. You can't find an article calling him a terrible defender, it doesn't exist. I tried searching for one. Only in this room have I ever seen anyone refer to Pat will as a bad defender. Literally hundreds of articles lauding his defense. Low odds every analyst is wrong, and a few fans are right. Of course, he pretty much exclusively guards most of the best guards/forwards in the league, accompanied by some of the worst defensive starters and post defenders behind him so there's that.

Great defenders look cooked all the time when they're going from guarding Jayson Tatum to Banchero to Jaren Jackson to Porzingas to Kevin Durant to Luka to Lebron.

[dougthonus]

I'm with you, because every single article ever written about Patrick Williams refer to him being a good defender. You can't find an article calling him a terrible defender, it doesn't exist. I tried searching for one. Only in this room have I ever seen anyone refer to Pat will as a bad defender. Literally hundreds of articles lauding his defense. Low odds every analyst is wrong, and a few fans are right. Of course, he pretty much exclusively guards most of the best guards/forwards in the league, accompanied by some of the worst defensive starters and post defenders behind him so there's that.

Show me articles praising Patrick Williams defense that aren't exclusively about Patrick Williams, ie, is there anyone writing about all the good defenders in the league and then mentions Patrick Williams as one of them? I don't see that at all.

Instead, it seems like a bunch of people trying to look at Patrick Williams and find some upside.

His DEPM (best on/off based stat I presently know of) for his career is:
2021: -.3
2022: -.6
2023: 0
2024: +.2
2025: -.5

Shows over his career, he's basically been around a neutral defender via adjusted on/off numbers. Now I think on/off numbers are pretty 'meh' especially for guys who don't stand out and are near the border line, but a really good defender would probably stand out here somewhat.

Ie Caruso over the same time period ranges from +2.3 to +3.1.

I'm not sure if there are any standout defenders that have mediocre numbers. So in this case, I don't think anyone is accusing Pat of being a horrible defender, the idea that he is a needle mover on defense is clearly not correct either. He's a pedestrian defender that up until this year was pretty good at the point of attack and pretty bad as a help defender. The Bulls are really weak at point of attack, so when he was pretty good there it helped the a fair amount.

Even so, the aggregate of his defensive abilities and shortcomings had made him pretty much a neutral on that end. That would seem to mostly match my eye test of seeing some really solid man defense followed by him completely whiffing on box outs or letting his guy back cut him, and the overall impact that shows up in the numbers of him being a pretty big net negative on the floor throughout his career.

[Infinity2152]

I'm with you, because every single article ever written about Patrick Williams refer to him being a good defender. You can't find an article calling him a terrible defender, it doesn't exist. I tried searching for one. Only in this room have I ever seen anyone refer to Pat will as a bad defender. Literally hundreds of articles lauding his defense. Low odds every analyst is wrong, and a few fans are right. Of course, he pretty much exclusively guards most of the best guards/forwards in the league, accompanied by some of the worst defensive starters and post defenders behind him so there's that.

Show me articles praising Patrick Williams defense that aren't exclusively about Patrick Williams, ie, is there anyone writing about all the good defenders in the league and then mentions Patrick Williams as one of them? I don't see that at all.

Instead, it seems like a bunch of people trying to look at Patrick Williams and find some upside.

His DEPM (best on/off based stat I presently know of) for his career is:
2021: -.3
2022: -.6
2023: 0
2024: +.2
2025: -.5

Shows over his career, he's basically been around a neutral defender via adjusted on/off numbers. Now I think on/off numbers are pretty 'meh' especially for guys who don't stand out and are near the border line, but a really good defender would probably stand out here somewhat.

Ie Caruso over the same time period ranges from +2.3 to +3.1.

I'm not sure if there are any standout defenders that have mediocre numbers. So in this case, I don't think anyone is accusing Pat of being a horrible defender, the idea that he is a needle mover on defense is clearly not correct either. He's a pedestrian defender that up until this year was pretty good at the point of attack and pretty bad as a help defender. The Bulls are really weak at point of attack, so when he was pretty good there it helped the a fair amount.

Even so, the aggregate of his defensive abilities and shortcomings had made him pretty much a neutral on that end. That would seem to mostly match my eye test of seeing some really solid man defense followed by him completely whiffing on box outs or letting his guy back cut him, and the overall impact that shows up in the numbers of him being a pretty big net negative on the floor throughout his career.

There's a difference between good defender and elite defender. The articles mentioning defensive players typically only list elite defenders. Caruso is an elite defender. Nobody's saying he's an elite defender. Individual defensive stats are affected heavily by the quality of defensive player around you and the defensive system. It's pretty clear he's played with a ton of poor defenders. Also clear he's been matched up against PF's a lot, when he's smaller than a ton of them. When you add in the fact that he generally guards the best wing every night with all those factors, net average numbers would suggest he's a good defender to achieve average results. His bulking up certainly hasn't helped, but they keep playing him at PF. He's a better defender if he slims back down and guards people his same size, or close.

Interesting you compare him to Caruso to find him lacking, one of the recognized best defenders in the league. He and Ball are way more vocal, raising everybody up, affecting the net more. Of the 20+ other Bulls on this team since Pat has been here, Ball is probably the only other player to put up better defensive numbers in this system and on this team. Half those stats he was 18, 19 years old and or injured or coming off injury as well. Most of his career, he's way weaker and less experienced than his matchup, especially at PF. Who would you call an average overall defender that's better than Pat at 22? Do they guard the other team's best player? Can we admit there are a ton of PF's in the league who are destroying any 6'7", 210 pound 20 year old PF?

[dougthonus]

There's a difference between good defender and elite defender. The articles mentioning defensive players typically only list elite defenders. Caruso is an elite defender. Nobody's saying he's an elite defender. Individual defensive stats are affected heavily by the quality of defensive player around you and the defensive system. It's pretty clear he's played with a ton of poor defenders. Also clear he's been matched up against PF's a lot, when he's smaller than a ton of them. When you add in the fact that he generally guards the best wing every night with all those factors, net average numbers would suggest he's a good defender to achieve average results. His bulking up certainly hasn't helped, but they keep playing him at PF. He's a better defender if he slims back down and guards people his same size, or close.

They wouldn't, because when he leaves and different people take those same responsibilities and also work with poor defenders, the result is better / same.

Interesting you compare him to Caruso to find him lacking, one of the recognized best defenders in the league.

No, I gave an example of how these numbers stack up for a great defender, and showed Pat's number show him as a neutral in context.

He and Ball are way more vocal, raising everybody up, affecting the net more. Of the 20+ other Bulls on this team since Pat has been here, Ball is probably the only other player to put up better defensive numbers in this system and on this team.

If by defensive numbers, we mean the team performs better defensively when he's playing vs when he's not, consistently Pat is in the lower to middle of the pack of the team defensive numbers, not near the top. I'm not sure what other defensive numbers you would be referring to.

Matas, as an example, looks like a better defender than Pat this year already.

Half those stats he was 18, 19 years old and or injured or coming off injury as well. Most of his career, he's way weaker and less experienced than his matchup, especially at PF. Who would you call an average overall defender that's better than Pat at 22? Do they guard the other team's best player?

Yeah, I agree about not worrying about the rookie/sophomore years, but this year is actually his worst year in the league, and he's never had a big positive number. He's always hovered around 0.

[League Circles]

I'd guess that most of Patrick's minutes have been with hall of shame level defender Vuc. Hard to make the numbers better there. I wouldn't say Patrick is a strong help defender but I definitely don't think he's bad at that. Not good at boxing out though.

[Infinity2152]

There's a difference between good defender and elite defender. The articles mentioning defensive players typically only list elite defenders. Caruso is an elite defender. Nobody's saying he's an elite defender. Individual defensive stats are affected heavily by the quality of defensive player around you and the defensive system. It's pretty clear he's played with a ton of poor defenders. Also clear he's been matched up against PF's a lot, when he's smaller than a ton of them. When you add in the fact that he generally guards the best wing every night with all those factors, net average numbers would suggest he's a good defender to achieve average results. His bulking up certainly hasn't helped, but they keep playing him at PF. He's a better defender if he slims back down and guards people his same size, or close.

They wouldn't, because when he leaves and different people take those same responsibilities and also work with poor defenders, the result is better / same.

Interesting you compare him to Caruso to find him lacking, one of the recognized best defenders in the league.

No, I gave an example of how these numbers stack up for a great defender, and showed Pat's number show him as a neutral in context.

He and Ball are way more vocal, raising everybody up, affecting the net more. Of the 20+ other Bulls on this team since Pat has been here, Ball is probably the only other player to put up better defensive numbers in this system and on this team.

If by defensive numbers, we mean the team performs better defensively when he's playing vs when he's not, consistently Pat is in the lower to middle of the pack of the team defensive numbers, not near the top. I'm not sure what other defensive numbers you would be referring to.

Matas, as an example, looks like a better defender than Pat this year already.

Half those stats he was 18, 19 years old and or injured or coming off injury as well. Most of his career, he's way weaker and less experienced than his matchup, especially at PF. Who would you call an average overall defender that's better than Pat at 22? Do they guard the other team's best player?

Yeah, I agree about not worrying about the rookie/sophomore years, but this year is actually his worst year in the league, and he's never had a big positive number. He's always hovered around 0.

Are we ignoring the defensive system he plays in? Or the fact if the team defense is bad without him, it's not likely to change much with him? He's not the point of attack defender nor the rim protector, two defensive roles having much more impact than changing PF defenders. Lebron's scoring 30 no matter which PF we put in, Pat will make it harder than anybody else on the team. The difference will still be minimal if we don't stop the PG or have no rim protection. No offense, but I'm not counting this half season as who he is. He's coming back from a very long injury. This is the NBA, it's harder for everybody to look good defensively, especially nowadays with 75% of the league shooting threes. We can say every single player on this team is a below average defender, because I'm sure the numbers you're using will show that or acknowledge there's more to the numbers than just individual defensive ability. I bet everybody's defensive numbers would look better if we had Bam and Jimmy instead of Derozan and Vucevic.

Matas is 6'10, would hope he's able to guard PF's better, lmao! His 13 minutes/gm for 40 games isn't much of a sample size, however.

[dougthonus]

Are we ignoring the defensive system he plays in? Or the fact if the team defense is bad without him, it's not likely to change much with him?

If he's a good defender, why would it not get better with him? It gets better with Lonzo Ball or Alex Caruso or other guys we view as good defenders. If it is the same with or without him, what is the argument that he is helping on this end?

He's not the point of attack defender nor the rim protector, two defensive roles having much more impact than changing PF defenders.

What do you think his defensive strengths are if it isn't rim defense (I agree) or POA (I disagree). Do you see him as an off the ball, ball hawk? I mean I see no evidence he's a guy doing great help defense things.

[HomoSapien]

Patrick Williams is basically an average defender. On an undersized team with many below-average defenders, his value gets inflated.