Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[fleet]

rams have one of the worst pass blocking interiors in the league. putrid

Come on man

hey, you just go with whatever suits your narrative. speak up every time carter has a big game. OR you can be intellectually honest and look at the bigger picture. like this:

2024

dexter 39 pressures in 356 pass snaps (11.0%) carter 53 in 541 (9.8%)
carter 36 hurries (6.7%), dexter 19 (5.3%)
dexter 6 sacks, carter 5 sacks
dexter 39.5 tackles, carter 32.5
carter 27 stops, dexter 24
dexter 14 hits, carter 12
carter 6 batted, dexter 2
carter 2 FF, dexter 0
carter 74 PFF, dexter 70

there has been no bigger critic of ryan poles around here than me. but i have no problem giving him credit where due. carter's market value was what it was for a reason. trading down, taking OT in rd. 1 instead of DT, and taking a DT w/ the additional acquired pick later in the draft is usually the smart move. and this was no exception. DESPITE carter being a stud on his best behavior

I suppose downplaying Carter’s impact game last night is intellectually honest.

As already pointed out, Dexter was not part of the trade. The punter is now. Honestly, I can’t believe you’re arguing that Dexter’s stats make him as valuable as Jalen Carter. I don’t even know how to respond. Carter the focus of OCs every game sending multiple blocker on him every play, creating mismatches for everyone else across the D Line, and freeing up linebackers. Dexter otoh is far from that. Box score watching does not capture what is happening on the football field. There is nobody in the league that watches both players who would entertain this comparison. I don’t mind you saying you would rather have Wright and then draft Dexter. That’s a separate question. I would rather have the impact superstar DT, and draft the O Line in the second round.

[The Evidence]

Norv Turner is probably the GOAT. Had 3 seasons of top 10 offenses in Dallas and takes the Washington HC job and after 7 seasons wins just 45% of his games. Josh McDaniels leads three years of NE offenses in the top 10 in points scored takes the Denver job and if fired less then two seasons later. Todd Haley leads two top 10 offense for AZ, takes the KC job and is fired less then 3 seasons later.

Sure, but those transitions were for terrible situations with treadmill/backup QBs.

I don't see Caleb Williams being as bad as Gus Frerrotte, Matt Cassel, or Kyle Orton.

[Jcool0]

Norv Turner is probably the GOAT. Had 3 seasons of top 10 offenses in Dallas and takes the Washington HC job and after 7 seasons wins just 45% of his games. Josh McDaniels leads three years of NE offenses in the top 10 in points scored takes the Denver job and if fired less then two seasons later. Todd Haley leads two top 10 offense for AZ, takes the KC job and is fired less then 3 seasons later.

Sure, but those transitions were for terrible situations with treadmill/backup QBs.

I don't see Caleb Williams being as bad as Gus Frerrotte, Matt Cassel, or Kyle Orton.

Norv and Josh got to pick there QBs. Heath Shuler was the #3 player taken in 1994. Josh traded Jay Culter and took Tim Tebow in round 1. Haley had Matt Cassel in KC who did have a 27 TDs 7 INT season under him.

[cocktailswith_2short]

Bj seems the next nagy

Rather have pete c.

So you want a coach you will need to replace in 5 years if things go well? A coach who's last top 10 defense was 2016?

You'll be doing backflips when the wins start piling up while Pete's chewing his cud a million miles an hour.

[Jcool0]

Bj seems the next nagy

Rather have pete c.

So you want a coach you will need to replace in 5 years if things go well? A coach who's last top 10 defense was 2016?

You'll be doing backflips when the wins start piling up while Pete's chewing his cud a million miles an hour.

25-26 record the last 3 season with the #28, #26, #30 ranked D. I guess the losses will pile up as well?

[Jcool0]

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[dougthonus]

there has been no bigger critic of ryan poles around here than me. but i have no problem giving him credit where due. carter's market value was what it was for a reason. trading down, taking OT in rd. 1 instead of DT, and taking a DT w/ the additional acquired pick later in the draft is usually the smart move. and this was no exception. DESPITE carter being a stud on his best behavior

Philosophically, sure, in the case where you had similar graded players at DT/OT, I would agree.

However, the results matter. We aren't comparing similar caliber players at different positions. We're comparing a pro bowl DT to a pedestrian offensive lineman that we aren't sure is our long term answer at his position. That is the problem, and Carter was viewed as a generational type talent in his draft and Wright was not, so the talent difference was obvious at the time of the draft and is obvious in hindsight too.

[molepharmer]

I'm pretty sure Carter at his pro day was fat, out of shape and couldn't make it through all the drills.....if I'm remembering correctly. That's not a good look and would certainly give a front office reason to pause on drafting said player in top 10. There may have been excuses/reasons given that he was rehabbing an injury. Regardless, when you use a top 10 pick on a player you're hoping/expecting to get 5+ years of productivity. So grading now based on only 2 years of play seems a bit premature.

[fleet]

While we don’t know anything. This feels right, at least on the main names, and the Bears would be more than fine assuming the Bears bring the talent aboard. If it becomes Freeman, that would be nuts in a good way.

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[Betta Bulleavit]

I'm pretty sure Carter at his pro day was fat, out of shape and couldn't make it through all the drills.....if I'm remembering correctly. That's not a good look and would certainly give a front office reason to pause on drafting said player in top 10. There may have been excuses/reasons given that he was rehabbing an injury. Regardless, when you use a top 10 pick on a player you're hoping/expecting to get 5+ years of productivity. So grading now based on only 2 years of play seems a bit premature.

You are recalling correctly. The drag racing incident was a black mark for sure. But the biggest contributing factor to his drop was due to him showing up to his pro-day “unprepared” and out of shape. That raised questions about his motor and whether or not he’d be able to realize his full potential. Before the pro- day, Carter was mocked as a top 3-5 pick in virtually every mock they was out there at the time.

It sucks that we’re in the group of teams that pivoted away from him. But it’s not like the reasoning wasn’t valid or that we were the only team that did. And for us (specifically) we had a lot of needs. Therefore, the logic of pivoting to a different player that also served a very clear need was there even if hindsight indicates that he was the top talent at our spot.

[nomorezorro]

it's possible to make a reasonable decision that turns out to not be the optimal decision with the benefit of hindsight. picking carter instead of wright is probably the right move — although it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions in that regard — but it doesn't mean it was bad process/talent evaluation that led to the decision to take wright over carter.

[Dresden]

Chiefs favored by 2, Eagles by 5.5, and OSU by 8.5. I'm surprised by that last one- I thought ND was playing better than anyone lately. We'll see tonight.

I imagine whoever wins the KC/BUF game will be a big favorite in the SB.

[patryk7754]

Going off the Rossini tweet, seems like Johnson’s plan is to schedule his top choice first and get it over with it. But if that team turns him off in anyway he’ll move forward with interviews with the other two teams.

My assumption will be that his first interview is his top choice. Hopefully that’s the bears

[ThisGuyFawkes]

i've gotten annoyed at the very lazy strain of Ben Johnson Skepticism — obviously the nagy comparisons are silly at face value, since we all know nagy spent minimal time as a playcaller before joining the bears and got to oversee an offense andy reid designed.

but i was curious if there were any examples of Hotshot OC with a similar profile to johnson who ended up flaming out, so i did some research and found something interesting: as far as i'm aware, there hasn't been a single offensive coordinator who's been hired as a head coach in the past decade who has as strong a resume as he does (three years overseeing a top-5 scoring/yardage nfl offense as the primary offensive architect/playcaller)

Does Josh McDaniels fall into that category? In fact, I'd be curious how many overall fall into that category. Who are the ones that didn't flame out? Genuinely curious.

[panthermark]

it's possible to make a reasonable decision that turns out to not be the optimal decision with the benefit of hindsight. picking carter instead of wright is probably the right move — although it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions in that regard — but it doesn't mean it was bad process/talent evaluation that led to the decision to take wright over carter.

That is exactly what I was referring to yesterday when I said:

When I look at that, it really makes me question how Ryan Poles is still here. I guess to me it feels like Ryan Poles is no better at team building than any average Bears fan walking down the street. I don't want to hear "at the time, no one could blame him", because the end result after 3 years is no drafted Pro-Bowlers, no winning records, not play-off games, and record setting losing streaks. Damn near anyone can take a capped out 6-11 team, and turn into a 5-12 team after 3 years.

That could be his new nick-name. Ryan "Reasonable at the time, but not Optimal" Poles.
The catch is that anyone walking down the street can make a reasonable at the time decision.

His job, with his resources, is to be optimal. Not bad. Not mediocre. Optimal. I understand he isn't going to hit on every draft pick in every round, but at 15-36 without any true blue chippers (we will see about Rome and Odunze...but they were clearly outplayed by other other rookies at their positions).

He is starting to feel Gar-Paxy. He can only do safe moves because his bold moves blow up in his face.

[Dresden]

Going off the Rossini tweet, seems like Johnson’s plan is to schedule his top choice first and get it over with it. But if that team turns him off in anyway he’ll move forward with interviews with the other two teams.

My assumption will be that his first interview is his top choice. Hopefully that’s the bears

The figure on the grassy knoll was wearing a blue headband too, which indicates Johnson may be going to Dallas.

[Dresden]

it's possible to make a reasonable decision that turns out to not be the optimal decision with the benefit of hindsight. picking carter instead of wright is probably the right move — although it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions in that regard — but it doesn't mean it was bad process/talent evaluation that led to the decision to take wright over carter.

That is exactly what I was referring to yesterday when I said:

When I look at that, it really makes me question how Ryan Poles is still here. I guess to me it feels like Ryan Poles is no better at team building than any average Bears fan walking down the street. I don't want to hear "at the time, no one could blame him", because the end result after 3 years is no drafted Pro-Bowlers, no winning records, not play-off games, and record setting losing streaks. Damn near anyone can take a capped out 6-11 team, and turn into a 5-12 team after 3 years.

That could be his new nick-name. Ryan "Reasonable at the time, but not Optimal" Poles.
The catch is that anyone walking down the street can make a reasonable at the time decision.

His job, with his resources, is to be optimal. Not bad. Not mediocre. Optimal. I understand he isn't going to hit on every draft pick in every round, but at 15-36 without any true blue chippers (we will see about Rome and Odunze...but they were clearly outplayed by other other rookies at their positions).

He is starting to feel Gar-Paxy. He can only do safe moves because his bold moves blow up in his face.

What about the trade with the Panthers? that was a pretty bold move, and worked out pretty well.

[panthermark]

it's possible to make a reasonable decision that turns out to not be the optimal decision with the benefit of hindsight. picking carter instead of wright is probably the right move — although it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions in that regard — but it doesn't mean it was bad process/talent evaluation that led to the decision to take wright over carter.

That is exactly what I was referring to yesterday when I said:

When I look at that, it really makes me question how Ryan Poles is still here. I guess to me it feels like Ryan Poles is no better at team building than any average Bears fan walking down the street. I don't want to hear "at the time, no one could blame him", because the end result after 3 years is no drafted Pro-Bowlers, no winning records, not play-off games, and record setting losing streaks. Damn near anyone can take a capped out 6-11 team, and turn into a 5-12 team after 3 years.

That could be his new nick-name. Ryan "Reasonable at the time, but not Optimal" Poles.
The catch is that anyone walking down the street can make a reasonable at the time decision.

His job, with his resources, is to be optimal. Not bad. Not mediocre. Optimal. I understand he isn't going to hit on every draft pick in every round, but at 15-36 without any true blue chippers (we will see about Rome and Odunze...but they were clearly outplayed by other other rookies at their positions).

He is starting to feel Gar-Paxy. He can only do safe moves because his bold moves blow up in his face.

What about the trade with the Panthers? that was a pretty bold move, and worked out pretty well.

That was a good trade, but that was not bold. Trading away the #1 (given Fields was going into his 3rd year) was pretty much expected. The question was around what was the best package he could get where would we land in the first round.

Keep in mind 5 of the first 12 players taken from that draft are Pro-Bowlers. Some of them 2x Pro-Bowlers...but we don't have any of them.
#2 CJ Stroud - OROY, ROY, PB (alternate)
#3 W Anderson - DROY, PB
#5 D Witherspoon - PBx2
#9 J Carter - PB
#12 J Gibbs - PBx2

We will see if #8 B Robinson makes it as an alternate this year.

[biggestbullsfan]

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Probably irrelevant but it’s hilarious that this is where we’ve come lol

[Jcool0]

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