Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[dice]

Come on man

hey, you just go with whatever suits your narrative. speak up every time carter has a big game. OR you can be intellectually honest and look at the bigger picture. like this:

2024

dexter 39 pressures in 356 pass snaps (11.0%) carter 53 in 541 (9.8%)
carter 36 hurries (6.7%), dexter 19 (5.3%)
dexter 6 sacks, carter 5 sacks
dexter 39.5 tackles, carter 32.5
carter 27 stops, dexter 24
dexter 14 hits, carter 12
carter 6 batted, dexter 2
carter 2 FF, dexter 0
carter 74 PFF, dexter 70

there has been no bigger critic of ryan poles around here than me. but i have no problem giving him credit where due. carter's market value was what it was for a reason. trading down, taking OT in rd. 1 instead of DT, and taking a DT w/ the additional acquired pick later in the draft is usually the smart move. and this was no exception. DESPITE carter being a stud on his best behavior

I suppose downplaying Carter’s impact game last night is intellectually honest.

of course it is. you have to account for the competition. but i never said that carter didn't have an excellent game

As already pointed out, Dexter was not part of the trade. The punter is now. Honestly, I can’t believe you’re arguing that Dexter’s stats make him as valuable as Jalen Carter. I don’t even know how to respond.

because you invented the idea that i said dexter was as valuable. mischaracterizing my position and then shooting it down with exasperation is just more intellectual dishonesty. what i SAID was that dexter played comparably to carter this year. over the course of the regular season

Box score watching does not capture what is happening on the football field. There is nobody in the league that watches both players who would entertain this comparison.

well, PFF watches every damn play and scored dexter in the neighborhood of carter. and they don't give a **** about box scores

the irony is that this conversation started with you providing carter's box score, ignoring the context of those numbers

[Jcool0]

Read on Twitter

[panthermark]

Read on Twitter

Works for me!
Although I will say that KK really opened some eyes.

[fleet]

(The Raiders are being leveraged)

[Dresden]

That is exactly what I was referring to yesterday when I said:


That could be his new nick-name. Ryan "Reasonable at the time, but not Optimal" Poles.
The catch is that anyone walking down the street can make a reasonable at the time decision.

His job, with his resources, is to be optimal. Not bad. Not mediocre. Optimal. I understand he isn't going to hit on every draft pick in every round, but at 15-36 without any true blue chippers (we will see about Rome and Odunze...but they were clearly outplayed by other other rookies at their positions).

He is starting to feel Gar-Paxy. He can only do safe moves because his bold moves blow up in his face.

What about the trade with the Panthers? that was a pretty bold move, and worked out pretty well.

That was a good trade, but that was not bold. Trading away the #1 (given Fields was going into his 3rd year) was pretty much expected. The question was around what was the best package he could get where would we land in the first round.

Keep in mind 5 of the first 12 players taken from that draft are Pro-Bowlers. Some of them 2x Pro-Bowlers...but we don't have any of them.
#2 CJ Stroud - OROY, ROY, PB (alternate)
#3 W Anderson - DROY, PB
#5 D Witherspoon - PBx2
#9 J Carter - PB
#12 J Gibbs - PBx2

We will see if #8 B Robinson makes it as an alternate this year.

Trading away the #1 pick was not bold? I think you're moving the goalposts.

[Betta Bulleavit]

it's possible to make a reasonable decision that turns out to not be the optimal decision with the benefit of hindsight. picking carter instead of wright is probably the right move — although it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions in that regard — but it doesn't mean it was bad process/talent evaluation that led to the decision to take wright over carter.

That is exactly what I was referring to yesterday when I said:

When I look at that, it really makes me question how Ryan Poles is still here. I guess to me it feels like Ryan Poles is no better at team building than any average Bears fan walking down the street. I don't want to hear "at the time, no one could blame him", because the end result after 3 years is no drafted Pro-Bowlers, no winning records, not play-off games, and record setting losing streaks. Damn near anyone can take a capped out 6-11 team, and turn into a 5-12 team after 3 years.

That could be his new nick-name. Ryan "Reasonable at the time, but not Optimal" Poles.
The catch is that anyone walking down the street can make a reasonable at the time decision.

His job, with his resources, is to be optimal. Not bad. Not mediocre. Optimal. I understand he isn't going to hit on every draft pick in every round, but at 15-36 without any true blue chippers (we will see about Rome and Odunze...but they were clearly outplayed by other other rookies at their positions).

He is starting to feel Gar-Paxy. He can only do safe moves because his bold moves blow up in his face.

You say that you understand that a GM isn’t going to hit on every pick in every round. But based on your other statements, it seems like that’s exactly what you expect. The way I see it, the jury is still out on the guys that we drafted the last 2 drafts. His first draft produced Gordon, Brisker, Braxton Jones, Kramer, Elijah Hicks and Dominique Robinson…all of whom are contributors on this current team.

I understand that it’s easy to look at who other teams drafted that we didn’t and say…..”look how this guy turned out and how that guy turned out”. But that just feels like an unproductive exercise to me because it’s something that just about every team could do. It’s just worse for us because our team has been so bad. Bit I think we know that’s not ALL on Ryan Poles.

[Jcool0]

What about the trade with the Panthers? that was a pretty bold move, and worked out pretty well.

That was a good trade, but that was not bold. Trading away the #1 (given Fields was going into his 3rd year) was pretty much expected. The question was around what was the best package he could get where would we land in the first round.

Keep in mind 5 of the first 12 players taken from that draft are Pro-Bowlers. Some of them 2x Pro-Bowlers...but we don't have any of them.
#2 CJ Stroud - OROY, ROY, PB (alternate)
#3 W Anderson - DROY, PB
#5 D Witherspoon - PBx2
#9 J Carter - PB
#12 J Gibbs - PBx2

We will see if #8 B Robinson makes it as an alternate this year.

Trading away the #1 pick was not bold? I think you're moving the goalposts.

Like he said you had Justin Fields and this was considered a down year for drafting a QB. So guess it was somewhat bold to hold the pick for the highest bidder but it was also kind of expected they would do it.

[nitetrain8603]

I just hope that Ben Johnson is more Mike Martz than Josh McDaniels.

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[Jcool0]

I just hope that Ben Johnson is more Mike Martz than Josh McDaniels.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

??????

[dice]

there has been no bigger critic of ryan poles around here than me. but i have no problem giving him credit where due. carter's market value was what it was for a reason. trading down, taking OT in rd. 1 instead of DT, and taking a DT w/ the additional acquired pick later in the draft is usually the smart move. and this was no exception. DESPITE carter being a stud on his best behavior

Philosophically, sure, in the case where you had similar graded players at DT/OT, I would agree.

However, the results matter. We aren't comparing similar caliber players at different positions. We're comparing a pro bowl DT to a pedestrian offensive lineman that we aren't sure is our long term answer at his position. That is the problem, and Carter was viewed as a generational type talent in his draft and Wright was not, so the talent difference was obvious at the time of the draft and is obvious in hindsight too.

wright is no star, but he ain't pedestrian. and his position is more important

and any poker player would tell you that the results of a single decision DON'T matter. bad players win hands against great players all the time. sometimes by making a mistake and getting bailed out by the deck. similarly, bad GMs stick around longer than they should all the time. witness ryan poles getting bailed out by the deck by both lovie AND the panthers

if a bet is expected to pay off 90% of the time for a gain of $100 and fail 10% of the time for a loss of $1000, that bet is a mistake. that it ultimately pays off does not in retrospect make it a good bet! jalen carter playing to his potential on a good eagles team AND staying out of trouble doesn't prove that it was a bad decision not to draft him for eberflus

[cocktailswith_2short]

Gonna land the hot commodity coach well done . Now he needs to back up the hype.

[dougthonus]

wright is no star, but he ain't pedestrian. and his position is more important

Okay. Carter is a star, and his position is also important, and he looked like a radically better talent coming into the draft, and with two years of hindsight, he looks like a radically better talent today.

if a bet is expected to pay off 90% of the time for a gain of $100 and fail 10% of the time for a loss of $1000, that bet is a mistake. that it ultimately pays off does not in retrospect make it a good bet! jalen carter playing to his potential on a good eagles team AND staying out of trouble doesn't prove that it was a bad decision not to draft him for eberflus

Yeah, the problem is the payoff was bigger on Carter as were the odds of success. There's no reason to think that he was going to be a bigger problem for Eberflus, because the primary reason people thought he was a problem wasn't really rationale.

[nitetrain8603]

I just hope that Ben Johnson is more Mike Martz than Josh McDaniels.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

??????

McDaniels is a brilliant offensive mind. He was full of himself. He can coach the he'll out of an offense but he was an awful HC.

Martz is a brilliant offensive mind and full of himself. Martz was a competent HC who was smart enough to hire Lovie as a DC and let him handle that. Players for the most part enjoyed playing for him.

Ben Johnson is similar to them both.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

[panthermark]

What about the trade with the Panthers? that was a pretty bold move, and worked out pretty well.

That was a good trade, but that was not bold. Trading away the #1 (given Fields was going into his 3rd year) was pretty much expected. The question was around what was the best package he could get where would we land in the first round.

Keep in mind 5 of the first 12 players taken from that draft are Pro-Bowlers. Some of them 2x Pro-Bowlers...but we don't have any of them.
#2 CJ Stroud - OROY, ROY, PB (alternate)
#3 W Anderson - DROY, PB
#5 D Witherspoon - PBx2
#9 J Carter - PB
#12 J Gibbs - PBx2

We will see if #8 B Robinson makes it as an alternate this year.

Trading away the #1 pick was not bold? I think you're moving the goalposts.

In that situation it wasn't. I think you know that and are pretending the goal posts are being moved ignoring context. Especially being that the expected #1 and #2 picks were QB's.

In that situation, at that time, bold would have been trading Justin Fields after his 2nd year and drafting a QB. Trading that pick for additional assets to build a team was not bold, but it indeed the right thing to do.

Really bold would have been keeping that pick, trading Fields, and drafting another OSU QB. We would all have been like WTF??!?! at the time.

[Jcool0]

I just hope that Ben Johnson is more Mike Martz than Josh McDaniels.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

??????

McDaniels is a brilliant offensive mind. He was full of himself. He can coach the he'll out of an offense but he was an awful HC.

Martz is a brilliant offensive mind and full of himself. Martz was a competent HC who was smart enough to hire Lovie as a DC and let him handle that. Players for the most part enjoyed playing for him.

Ben Johnson is similar to them both.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Martz had one of the greatest teams ever given to him and proceed to slowly destroy it until he got fired. Never seen someone use Mike Martz as someone to emulate.

[nitetrain8603]

??????

McDaniels is a brilliant offensive mind. He was full of himself. He can coach the he'll out of an offense but he was an awful HC.

Martz is a brilliant offensive mind and full of himself. Martz was a competent HC who was smart enough to hire Lovie as a DC and let him handle that. Players for the most part enjoyed playing for him.

Ben Johnson is similar to them both.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Martz had one of the greatest teams ever given to him and proceed to slowly destroy it until he got fired. Never seen someone use Mike Martz as someone to emulate.

The Rams got old. Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. The only misstep which was big was giving up on Kurt Warner too soon and going with Sam Bradford.

Martz also was wonderful with the 49ers and Lions in terms of OC.

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[Jcool0]

McDaniels is a brilliant offensive mind. He was full of himself. He can coach the he'll out of an offense but he was an awful HC.

Martz is a brilliant offensive mind and full of himself. Martz was a competent HC who was smart enough to hire Lovie as a DC and let him handle that. Players for the most part enjoyed playing for him.

Ben Johnson is similar to them both.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Martz had one of the greatest teams ever given to him and proceed to slowly destroy it until he got fired. Never seen someone use Mike Martz as someone to emulate.

The Rams got old. Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. The only misstep which was big was giving up on Kurt Warner too soon and going with Sam Bradford.

Martz also was wonderful with the 49ers and Lions in terms of OC.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Martz was a disaster with the 49ers. He thought J.T. O'Sullivan was a starting NFL QB.

[panthermark]

it's possible to make a reasonable decision that turns out to not be the optimal decision with the benefit of hindsight. picking carter instead of wright is probably the right move — although it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions in that regard — but it doesn't mean it was bad process/talent evaluation that led to the decision to take wright over carter.

That is exactly what I was referring to yesterday when I said:

When I look at that, it really makes me question how Ryan Poles is still here. I guess to me it feels like Ryan Poles is no better at team building than any average Bears fan walking down the street. I don't want to hear "at the time, no one could blame him", because the end result after 3 years is no drafted Pro-Bowlers, no winning records, not play-off games, and record setting losing streaks. Damn near anyone can take a capped out 6-11 team, and turn into a 5-12 team after 3 years.

That could be his new nick-name. Ryan "Reasonable at the time, but not Optimal" Poles.
The catch is that anyone walking down the street can make a reasonable at the time decision.

His job, with his resources, is to be optimal. Not bad. Not mediocre. Optimal. I understand he isn't going to hit on every draft pick in every round, but at 15-36 without any true blue chippers (we will see about Rome and Odunze...but they were clearly outplayed by other other rookies at their positions).

He is starting to feel Gar-Paxy. He can only do safe moves because his bold moves blow up in his face.

You say that you understand that a GM isn’t going to hit on every pick in every round. But based on your other statements, it seems like that’s exactly what you expect. The way I see it, the jury is still out on the guys that we drafted the last 2 drafts. His first draft produced Gordon, Brisker, Braxton Jones, Kramer, Elijah Hicks and Dominique Robinson…all of whom are contributors on this current team.

I understand that it’s easy to look at who other teams drafted that we didn’t and say…..”look how this guy turned out and how that guy turned out”. But that just feels like an unproductive exercise to me because it’s something that just about every team could do. It’s just worse for us because our team has been so bad. Bit I think we know that’s not ALL on Ryan Poles.

Gordon and Brisker are good players. Not stars, but good players. They are also 2nd round picks...so that is kinda expected.
Jones is probably his best pick relative to draft position. Jones is a flawed but serviceable starter. Hicks is decent back-up safety/ST player that has ZERO career sacks, forced fumbles or interceptions. Robinson and Kramer are not even worth discussing.

The Jury is out on the last two drafts sure, but the last two drafts have already produced a ton of Pro-Bowlers.
I like Brisker and Gordon a lot, but I'm not going to fool myself into believing they are beyond the level of the safeties or nickel backs of a lot of other teams in the NFL. WE like they because they are some OUR BEST players. But relative to a lot of other teams, they are starters, not stars.

[nitetrain8603]

Martz had one of the greatest teams ever given to him and proceed to slowly destroy it until he got fired. Never seen someone use Mike Martz as someone to emulate.

The Rams got old. Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. The only misstep which was big was giving up on Kurt Warner too soon and going with Sam Bradford.

Martz also was wonderful with the 49ers and Lions in terms of OC.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Martz was a disaster with the 49ers. He thought J.T. O'Sullivan was a starting NFL QB.

The 9ers offense improved under Martz as OC. They were far from a disaster.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

[dice]

wright is no star, but he ain't pedestrian. and his position is more important

Okay. Carter is a star, and his position is also important, and he looked like a radically better talent coming into the draft, and with two years of hindsight, he looks like a radically better talent today.

PFF 2023 carter 89 wright 62
PFF 2024 wright 79 carter 74

and by the way, wright played 95% of snaps over 16 games. along w/ EVERY snap of his rookie season

carter played only half the snaps his rookie year, thus perhaps accounting for his elite performance, being well rested. this season he played 84% of snaps over his 16 games and saw his efficiency fall significantly. chris jones played a similar % of snaps and a PFF grade of 90. at age 30. huge gap in production between the very best and jalen carter. 74 QB pressures vs. carter's 53. in 1 less game

talent does nothing in the NFL. it's all about production

if a bet is expected to pay off 90% of the time for a gain of $100 and fail 10% of the time for a loss of $1000, that bet is a mistake. that it ultimately pays off does not in retrospect make it a good bet! jalen carter playing to his potential on a good eagles team AND staying out of trouble doesn't prove that it was a bad decision not to draft him for eberflus

Yeah, the problem is the payoff was bigger on Carter as were the odds of success.

i was giving a hypothetical. the payoff for any player drafted at #9 is going to be higher. there is no expectation of outright losing the bet there. not with carter and not even w/ wright, who i would argue was over-drafted. i was totally OK w/ trading out of carter, but my position may have flipped had you told me the players chosen w/ the acquired picks

There's no reason to think that he was going to be a bigger problem for Eberflus, because the primary reason people thought he was a problem wasn't really rationale.

so your argument is that every team in the league save maybe the eagles weren't being rational. that's fine and maybe even correct. but i'm not gonna dock poles much for not being an outlier

and the eagles and bears were likely valuing carter similarly. maybe even the same given the difference in situations carter would be walking into