How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[badinage]

28-15 is on pace for 54 wins. Something we have never done since 1978, matter of fact we've only won 54 games 3 times in franchise history. Time to temper expectations.

Your last question is kind of misleading. We aren't in the same boat as MIA or LAL or NYK. Top tier players will never force a trade to WAS. We aren't that type of franchise. We have to build from the ground up through the draft.

I wasn’t talking about the Wizards, I was talking about Houston.

[badinage]

28-15 is on pace for 54 wins. Something we have never done since 1978, matter of fact we've only won 54 games 3 times in franchise history. Time to temper expectations.

Your last question is kind of misleading. We aren't in the same boat as MIA or LAL or NYK. Top tier players will never force a trade to WAS. We aren't that type of franchise. We have to build from the ground up through the draft.

I’m well aware this franchise hasn’t hit 54 wins — not since the 70s.

But.

My expectations are of a “generational team” — that’s what Winger said. That’s where that expectation comes from.

[9 and 20]

28-15 is on pace for 54 wins. Something we have never done since 1978, matter of fact we've only won 54 games 3 times in franchise history. Time to temper expectations.

Your last question is kind of misleading. We aren't in the same boat as MIA or LAL or NYK. Top tier players will never force a trade to WAS. We aren't that type of franchise. We have to build from the ground up through the draft.

Chris Webber forced a trade here and we mucked that up. Gilbert Arenas landed here after he flipped a coin and we messed that up too (Arenas played a big part himself in this one, no doubt).

Paul Pierce wanted to come here and so did Westbrook, both past their primes but still great players.

DC doesn't need to show much before it becomes more of a destination. I think we can get there - just need a little luck and no Grundle stink for a while to make it happen.

[badinage]

Of course the goal should be a “generational team,” but that’s just FO/GM talk. If you’re expecting a generational team in 4-5 yrs you might be disappointed. (I’d like to be wrong.)

I’d be happy with a very good team that is consistently in the mix for the ECF and maybe wins a chip or two. But that’s easier said than done.

But that’s what the compass has been set to. And I didn’t do that setting. Winger did.

That’s what it’s set to, and that’s how he and Winger’re to be judged.

And … that’s also what all this on-purpose losing — over the past two seasons and likely for the next two — is for.

Because there are other ways to skin the cat. Look at the Knicks — not built through the draft. Look at Toronto. Look at the Pistons of the past.

I’m not saying the other ways are better. I’m saying that if your team tanks hard and obviously — and does this for years and years and years — and it doesn’t result in a generation (7 years in the NBA) of sustained success, and at least a title and perennial contention, then it has to be counted a failure, especially when there are multiple routes to success other than doing it almost exclusively through the draft (and when other approaches might not have eaten up years).

[doclinkin]

You can build teams many, many ways -- a deep rebuild through 5 years of the draft is only one route.

I wonder: how many great teams (not even generational teams, but just great, sustained great) have been built this way over the past 40 years? It would be interesting to explore.

I think if we had a sustained run of good drafting for 7 years (your definition of 'generation') then many other avenues of success open up. If you have solid talent refreshing your roster year after year, then you have depth of trade assets as well as useful players. If your talent matures well and the team starts winning the narrative surrounding the team begins to change. Free agents become interested. The front office gets good press and good relationships with agents and respected players. We become a destination team. Or a team of Destiny. Whichever.

The current CBA will make it very difficult for teams to spend their way to success. And tricky to retain players on winning teams. The way to consistently renew your squad will be to constantly draft well, onboarding waves of talent that peak one after another. In this way you constantly have a cheaper alternative and a competitive bench battling for starting positions. A reliable starter on a rookie contract is the most cost efficient player in the game. A team like OKC has an embarassment of riches to the extent where they may not be able to afford to pay everybody since they are all coming due for contracts at the same time, and have too many draft picks to find roster spots for them all. I think the Wizards are looking at a similar model, but I'd bet they will try to space the picks out a bit. I don't think we are likely to get 3 rookies every year, but will try to improve our draft position with all the additional picks they've been hoarding.

2025. Our 1st round pick, currently 1-5. 2nd round. We ship our pick to Boston but have 3 picks in the early 40's (GSW, DET, PHX).

2026. Our 1st rounder. Top 8 protected. Plus we get PHX lotto combinations if they miss the playoffs and our pick does not convey to NYK. Plus three (3) 2nd round picks: Bulls, Suns, and a 'second best of 3' combo. (Or 4 2RPs including our own, if our 1st rounder conveys to New York).

2027. Our 1st rounder. Three 2nd round picks. (Plus our own if we lost our 2026 1RP to NY).

2028. Our 1st rounder, or swap rights for the lesser of Brooklyn, Philly, PHX. (Probably won't be swapped, but if we pick superstars in 25/26 then you never know. Insurance if we get good quickly). Two (2) 2RPs.

2029. Our 1st rounder. Plus a 1st rounder from the 2nd best of Blazers, Bucks, Celtics. Two 2RP's (ours, Lakers).

2030. Our 1st rounder/or pick swap with PHX. Plus Golden State's 1st rounder if they are ranked top 10 in the league. Three 2RPs (ours, PHX, Portland).

That's a lot of draft capital.

Considering the 2 extra firsts we picked up this past year that means we may have added an extra +3-4 first round picks. And + 9-11 2nd round picks.

So far.

These picks are used to either give us more swings at the piñata. Or to improve our draft position in trade-ups. Or as deal sweeteners in advantageous trades or S&T scenarios.

We accept fat veteran contracts attached to additional picks from teams needing to drop cap space. Then hold them 'til they expire when we can ship them out to other teams needing to drop cap with those expiring contracts. Into those roster spots we can draft more youth to see who may stick and provide more cheap depth as the rooks grow up or look to become too pricey for their production.

If we do this every year then we have a factory stamping out solid young players. And with RFA rights and early extension options we get to sign them early if they show signs of breaking out in practice etc. The way we saw Deni was poised to surge over the next year so we extended him early and cheap. The benefit of signing young and raw players is you may catch them at a discount if they take a little longer to develop. If they break out on their 2nd contract you have them over their peak, at a lower cost.

And once you have the right good young talent to build around, you can look to assemble a team around your core. Free agency. Trades. Etc.

But we are not there yet. We are in the asset collection phase. We have zero foundational pieces. Everybody is subject to trade still, even the rooks and Bilal. Until we land a franchise player we are still in the muddy waters and can't see clear to the bottom. If we draft well over the next 2 years, then I think our path becomes clear.

Ideally it all comes together in time to showcase a brand new pretty building and the team can host playoff games and hoist some banners to decorate it.

[AFM]

Sounds like a lot of hogwash from the leader of the cult of dawkins. Dudes name is even similar. Doclin. Dawkin. How much is he paying you to write this nonsense?

[payitforward]

You can tell a good team by how many games they win. That's what we mean by "good." We mean "wins a lot of games."

Teams win a lot of games by having better players. Better than their opponents. Better players make a better team.

You can get a solid idea of how long a good team will remain good by looking at the age of its players & the structure of their contracts.

How long it takes to build a good team can vary based on many factors, not the least of which is luck.

Can you have "better players than last year" b/c Lebron James & Chris Bosh decide to come play for you. Sure. But that's their decision not yours.

Can you have better players, because a few guys develop way beyond expectations -- say, maybe, guys taken relatively late in the draft. Sure. & there's skill -- but also luck -- in finding those guys. & it's a competitive search too.

IOW, these factors simply make my point again from a different angle. It's the players. To be a better team you need better players.

If you are a bad team, like for example the Wizards of '22-23, & one of your very few good players opts out & forces a trade for no value, & another of your players has a hideous contract & is on the downslope of his career, then a total rebuild via the draft is the only option you have.

"Other ways to skin the cat" "multiple routes to success" "other approaches" -- those are metaphors & abstractions. The only way to have a better team this year than last is to have better players this year than last. Rinse & repeat.

To imagine you can trade your bad and/or overpaid players for better and/or cheaper ones is a silly fantasy. Ditto to imagine you'll sign earth-shaking FAs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sounds like a lot of hogwash from the leader of the cult of dawkins. Dudes name is even similar. Doclin. Dawkin. How much is he paying you to write this nonsense?

Doclinkin Double Down

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just hope to be alive and well to see this highly competitive team in the née building.

[TheBlackCzar]

Sounds like a lot of hogwash from the leader of the cult of dawkins. Dudes name is even similar. Doclin. Dawkin. How much is he paying you to write this nonsense?

[doclinkin]

Y'all jealous because my Wizards propaganda cash is rollin in by the truckload.

[doclinkin]

And anyway all Wizards fandom is either masochism or science fiction.

[tontoz]

Doc just made back to back posts that were only one sentence.

I didn't think Captain TLDR was capable of that.

[doclinkin]

Here. Too many words. Broken into chunks. Generational jumpstart.
2023.

Spoiler:

Trade up. Draft Bilal. Versatile defender. Still growing.

2024.

Spoiler:

Trade into the 1st round for +2 picks.
Draft Sarr. potential as a 7' Deni Avdija: passes well, defense ahead of his offense, good handle for size, needs interior game + 3ball.
Draft Bub. Tall passer with efficient pull-up game. Rebounding guard. Room to grow into his recent growth spurt.
Draft Key. Still growing. Med staff say he may top out at 6'10". With guard skills. Smooth looking shot if he can find his range.
All need weight room work. And inside game.
Bilal added size. Strength. Better handle. Played better as a starter. Olympic experience built confidence.
Forcefeed rooks all the minutes they can handle.
Tank for top 4 2025 pick.

2025 Draft/Offseason.

Spoiler:

1st rd.
Draft BPA. Hopefully Flagg. But the Rutgers duo are aggressive scorers and competitors.

2nd rd.
Wiz have three 2nd round draft picks. Consider among Dink Pate. Tomislav Ivisic. Jojo Tugler. Donnie Freeman. JT Toppin.
OR: Trade into the 1st round? (*)
Take Rasheer Fleming. Late blooming long armed widebody with high BBIQ, good defense.
Or Thomas Sorber the freshman version of Fleming.
Or Collin Murray Boyles if he falls.
(*Dallas needs a big defensive PG to back up Kyrie and Dinwiddie. And/or 6 more fouls and size to bang with Jokic. Add 2nd round picks as sweetener).

Offseason:
Bilal and Sarr may play in the Eurobasket tournament for France. Scrimmage with Wemby.

25-26 season.

Spoiler:

Bilal bumps Kuz to the bench. But splits minutes still with Bailey/Flagg and Sarr/George. Suppressing his counting stats.
Youngsters play heavy minutes, with up to half the team still on rookie contracts, ensuring losses even with improving play.
Tank into the top 8.

2026 Draft/Offseason.

Spoiler:

Top 8 Draft pick. High likelihood PHX will crash. If so: 60%+ chance of a top 4 pick?
In a draft with AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, Alijah Arenas.

Watch on YouTube

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Plus three 2nd rounders. Including PHX's who may have crashed. And the Bulls', probably rebuilding.
Bub, Kyshawn on unguaranteed team options.
Bilal is extension eligible

2026-27 Roster:
With vets Poole, Kuzma, JV and Saddiq Bey all on expiring contracts and able to be shipped for value even just as cap relief, your core going forward would be:

1G Bub.
2G Pick from: Bailey/Dybantsa/Peterson/Arenas.
3F Bilal. KGeorge.
4F Pick from: Flagg/Boozer/Fleming/Sorber.
C. Sarr.

Fill in the blanks with 2nd round players like Dink Pate. Tomislav Ivisic. Jojo Tugler. And/or whomever else you get from the six 2nd round draft picks from 25/26.

[Frichuela]

We can all rightly criticize this FO’s track record on trades. But it is also fair to say they are competent as talent evaluators. Our 3 draft picks being in the top 10 of the rookie ladder is no easy feat. Here is to hoping they nail the next 2 drafts.

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?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

And our 3 rookies also rank in the top-10 of this purely statistical based ranking:

https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-rookie-rankings

[tontoz]

We can all rightly criticize this FO’s track record on trades. But it is also fair to say they are competent as talent evaluators. Our 3 draft picks being in the top 10 of the rookie ladder is no easy feat. Here is to hoping they nail the next 2 drafts.

And our 3 rookies also rank in the top-10 of this purely statistical based ranking:

https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-rookie-rankings

Keep in mind that our 3 rookies don't have to compete for minutes. That isn't the case on a lot of teams. Sheppard had to go to the G League to get minutes.

[Zonkerbl]

How the heck is Alex Sarr ranked above Zack Edey

Stephon Castle is MILES better than Sarr, come ON

Sarr is better than Missi? REALLY??? Wells is also obviously better. I think Sarr and Bubbington belong at the five and six spot together, they're not BAD but these other players are clearly outperforming them

[payitforward]

...Stephon Castle is MILES better than Sarr....

I wouldn't say so. Not on the numbers anyway. Truth is... neither of them is any good objectively. But, both have shown flashes -- in different areas.

[payitforward]

Missi, otoh, is definitely performing better than Alex Sarr.

[pancakes3]

if yall want us to be a generational team, we need a generational player.

there doesn't appear to have been one in last year's draft. other drafts, there are multiple. it's luck built on top of luck.

2023 - Wemby, maybe Brandon Miller as a second banana
2022 - Maybe Paolo
2021 - Sengun leads the pack, with a lot of second bananas like Jalen Green, Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Trey Murphy
2020 - Ant, with Maxey, Melo Ball and Haliburton being a maybe
2019 - Ja. I'm writing off Zion.
2018 - a Bonanza with Luka, SGA, and Brunson. Trae Young HM but not really.
2017 - Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, De'Aaron Fox, with Bam and Markkanen as really solid second bananas
2016 - Dud year. Jaylen Brown, Siakam, Sabonis, Jamal Murray, and Brandon Ingram leading a charge of 2nd and 3rd bananas.

I think last season we're on par with 2016, hoping that McCain, Sarr, Castle, and Jaylen Wells pan out to be very solid 2nd bananas, but there ain't no Wemby in this draft.

Next draft appears to be a very talented group, but with who we've got right now, even if everyone hits their ceiling, we don't have that first team All-NBA caliber player. Not Sarr, not Bilal, not nobody.