Pickled Prunes wrote:
Yep, you're right. I must have read too fast.
Either way, it doesn't change my point. I didn't say the PHX pick would not be a lottery pick, I just said that I would not count on it. PHX has a new owner that seems committed to spending whatever it takes to win. And teams tank every year. It is hard to imagine a team falling deep into the lottery when they are willing to spend and don't own their own pick. I would guess that the PHX 2031 pick will be no better than 10th. And their is a good chance that PHX is good in 2031. They could get a pretty big return for KD and Jimmy could recoup some of his value if he looks good in PHX. (I'm not predicting that either, but it is a realistic possibility.)
On the other hand: CLE, UTH and MIN are small market teams that have historically spent like small market teams. All three teams also have had a hard time attracting free agents. MIN is already reaping the rewards of their cost cutting KAT trade last summer. I would expect that trend to continue. If Edwards is around in 2029, he might be alone. UTH just maxed out Markkanen. I would guess that he'll be traded in 28/29 as an expiring contract. (Good player, but not a frinchise cornerstone!) CLE did not spend during Lebron's first stint, inspiring him to leave. Is there anyone on this roster you think they believe in more than young Lebron? Allen and Mobley are the only two Cavs on the books beyond 27/28. Will CLE continue to pass out max extensions to Mitchell, Garland and Mobley? How soon do they move Allen? How soon is their small backcourt exposed after moving on from the Mobley/Allen frontcourt tandem? Will they continue to pay the role players like LeVert, Strus, Wade and Niang, or will they try to complete the roster with vet min deals?
I wasn't predicting anything one way or the other, just saying that a lot can change in 4 years. But let's say that PHX pick is #10 and the three returning picks are #30, #25 and #20. I believe the three picks would have a better shot at producing a contributor. Ten years ago (2014) Wiggins was #1, Embiid #3, Randle #7, Elfrid Peyton #10, LaVine #13, Capela #25, Kyle Anderson #30, Dinwiddie #38, Jerami Grant #39, Jokic #41. If you aren't to5, it's better to have more bites at the apple.
And in the end, none of this matters to PHX. They traded one 1st for three so that they have three to trade. Now a rival GM can say they got three 1sts instead of one. It's trade cosmetics. It is unlikely that any of the four picks will produce a generational player, but both PHX and UTH accomplished what they set out to accomplish.
As a Knicks fan, I've seen the downside to trading unprotected picks. Isiah Thomas in particular, believed in NY's future and traded a bunch of them. The Eddy Curry trade, for example, 2 picks sent to Chicago turned into Lamarcus Aldridge and Jakim Noah. That stung.
I still kind of like this trade for Phoenix. I think it works for both teams to a degree, but the 2031 pick is an unknown. It could go either way.