Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Norseman79]

How much would you give up for Mark Williams? How much for Missi?

As part of a package for Randle? Absolutely. Anyone outside of Ant, Jaden, Naz and DD otherwise.

[cmoss84]

Chalk up another one to the category of "this is what happens when you smoke too much during a close Timberwolves game."

Detroit OUT: Isaiah Stewart, Ausur Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Bobi Klintman
Detroit IN: Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, BBJr, Daniel Theis, '26 SRP (Ind), '26 FRP (MIl)
Taking a gamble with Brandon Ingram to be a co-face of the franchise. Also throwing in some extra chips to make a run this
year/let team gel in crunch time. Giving up a ton of size and will need to sign a FA big (there are a few out there).
Cade-Beasely-Ingram-Harris-Theis
THJr-BBJr-Jones-Fontecchio-Reed
Sasser-Holland-FA C
Do they come out ahead in this trade?

NOP OUT: Zion, Ingram, Jones, Missi, Theis, Alvarado, BBJr, '26 FRP (Mil)
NOP IN: Randle, Jaden, Stewart, Thompson, Ivey, Duren, Leonard Miller
Get what they can for Ingram and Theis. Had enough of Zion and get similar player back in Randle, with less financial
ramifications. Upgrade with Jaden > Jones. Get the heir-apparent for CJ, and a very good overall return.
Murray-CJ-Jaden-Randle/Murphy-Stewart/Duran
Ivey-Hawkins-Thompson-Green-JRE
Do they come out ahead in this trade?

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, Miller, '26 SRP (Ind)
MN IN: Zion, Missi, Alvarado, Klintman
Can Zion mesh with Ant and Naz (as a starter)? Alvarado solves PG issue for 2 years. Missi backs up Rudy this year, reducing Rudy's
minutes. Rudy is traded in off-season. NAW and Naz resign.
Do we come out ahead in this trade?
PG: Mike-Alvarado-RD
SG: Ant-DD- NAW
SF: Naz-NAW-Minott
PF: Zion-Naz
C: Rudy-Missi

[minimus]

I'd pass. He hasn't played a lick of defense in about 5 years, rebounds worse than Jaden, plays small in the Playoffs and is owed 32, 34 and 36M the next 3 years.

Agreed. Not a fan for how much money he makes. He doesn't seem to want to play a lesser role and instead wants to be a scorer now.

Read into this what you want, but I think he would actually potentially have a bigger role here than what he has in Portland currently.

Scoring/shooting is one of the things I think the offense could use. The defensive and rebounding concerns are valid though, as is the contract. I doubt I do it unless there's an extra incentive.

I don't see a bigger offensive role for him in MIN. Is he better than Reid at scoring? No. Is he better than McDaniels at defending? No. Is he better than Minott at playing high effort offense and defense? No.

I'd rather give bigger offensive role to McDaniels as PF (see last games) and Minott as backup comboforward. If anything I'd add a big shooting wing like Cameron Johnson and maximize spacing around Gobert and Edwards.

[minimus]

Guys, I have a question: I saw Brooklyn payroll for next season, they have "only" 59 mil in books. Unless they overpay guys like Ingram, Collins, Turner, I dont see much sense for them to invest in FA agents. So my question is whether it makes sense for them to trade Cam Johnson for Randle and DET 1st? I mean Cam Johnson does not fit rebuilding, DET 1st might be a good asset THIS summer, and either Randle leaves or pickup his player option Brooklyn can eat his one year contract or trade him as expiring for some assets during 2025-26 season.

BRK has another way to play this.

They are still a destination city for free agents - they just don’t have a great roster. The benefit for BRK to have that much cap space under the $154.6 projected salary cap is that they can market to bring TWO max deal players in! Just like they did in 2019, they can approach free agents and say, “Durant, would you come if Kyrie was here?” “And Kyrie, would you come if Durant was here?” The appeal is being the place where two stars can play together, that gets them to sign.

EDIT: I tried to find my old post for this, but couldn’t do it, so I’ll wing it. BRK was able to get Durant and Kyrie to come for cap space. They made a couple runs that were stopped by injury, and then traded both players for a king’s ransom in picks, and then traded Mikal Bridges for even more picks. The “net” result here is that because BRK is a desirable free agent that got KD and Kyrie to agree to sign as free agents, they effectively traded cap space for over 10 1sts.

I understand it, I just dont think it will happen again in BRO.

[frankenwolf]

Chalk up another one to the category of "this is what happens when you smoke too much during a close Timberwolves game."

Detroit OUT: Isaiah Stewart, Ausur Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Bobi Klintman
Detroit IN: Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, BBJr, Daniel Theis, '26 SRP (Ind), '26 FRP (MIl)
Taking a gamble with Brandon Ingram to be a co-face of the franchise. Also throwing in some extra chips to make a run this
year/let team gel in crunch time. Giving up a ton of size and will need to sign a FA big (there are a few out there).
Cade-Beasely-Ingram-Harris-Theis
THJr-BBJr-Jones-Fontecchio-Reed
Sasser-Holland-FA C
Do they come out ahead in this trade?

NOP OUT: Zion, Ingram, Jones, Missi, Theis, Alvarado, BBJr, '26 FRP (Mil)
NOP IN: Randle, Jaden, Stewart, Thompson, Ivey, Duren, Leonard Miller
Get what they can for Ingram and Theis. Had enough of Zion and get similar player back in Randle, with less financial
ramifications. Upgrade with Jaden > Jones. Get the heir-apparent for CJ, and a very good overall return.
Murray-CJ-Jaden-Randle/Murphy-Stewart/Duran
Ivey-Hawkins-Thompson-Green-JRE
Do they come out ahead in this trade?

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, Miller, '26 SRP (Ind)
MN IN: Zion, Missi, Alvarado, Klintman
Can Zion mesh with Ant and Naz (as a starter)? Alvarado solves PG issue for 2 years. Missi backs up Rudy this year, reducing Rudy's
minutes. Rudy is traded in off-season. NAW and Naz resign.
Do we come out ahead in this trade?
PG: Mike-Alvarado-RD
SG: Ant-DD- NAW
SF: Naz-NAW-Minott
PF: Zion-Naz
C: Rudy-Missi

CMoss, love ya man, but holy cow!! For the record, I want no part of Zion. It was a concern when he was drafted how healthy he would be and it has turned out to be valid, as he is not.

Thanks for some fun reading.

[Guest84]

Sounds like according to John K, don’t expect a Randle trade at the deadline. Wolves trying to improve internally. I forgot to grab the article

[Klomp]

Lonzo Ball update time:

Lonzo missed two of the last 4 games. I found out one was rest because they don’t play him in back to backs, and the other was a quad contusion.

Also in the 3 games since his turn the corner offensive clinic, Lonzo is shooting 8 of 25 from the field and 6 of 22 from deep. That means he is 2 of 3 from 2 for a respectable 66.6%. From deep he is 27.27%. To his credit Lonzo usually has a positive plus minus. To his detriment the Bulls have lost 3 of the last 4 he has played, and with offense like that, can you blame them?

If it makes you feel any better...
L. Ball misses 3-pt jump shot from 47 ft
L. Ball misses 3-pt jump shot from 53 ft

Take away those two end-of-quarter heaves and his percentage jumps to 30%. It might not mean much, but it's such a small sample size when you take those away that one make would have bumped up the percentage another 5 points.

The point was more about the regression to the mean than the actual performance. For every one or two good shooting nights you can expect at least that many bad nights.

Thinking out loud to myself about this....his shot "regression" might actually be the difference between needing to include an asset like the DET 1st in the deal to get it done or not.

[winforlose]

Sounds like according to John K, don’t expect a Randle trade at the deadline. Wolves trying to improve internally. I forgot to grab the article

Just found this after reading your post.

https://www.si.com/nba/timberwolves/minnesota-timberwolves-news/report-league-execs-believe-wolves-will-try-to-trade-julius-randle-01jjaajjt8cq

[Klomp]

Sounds like according to John K, don’t expect a Randle trade at the deadline. Wolves trying to improve internally. I forgot to grab the article

Just found this after reading your post.

https://www.si.com/nba/timberwolves/minnesota-timberwolves-news/report-league-execs-believe-wolves-will-try-to-trade-julius-randle-01jjaajjt8cq

That link is a pretty good synopsis. The Donte injury could certainly change things more than anything else, but without that I think they would have leaned more to keeping him.

[winforlose]

Sounds like according to John K, don’t expect a Randle trade at the deadline. Wolves trying to improve internally. I forgot to grab the article

Just found this after reading your post.

https://www.si.com/nba/timberwolves/minnesota-timberwolves-news/report-league-execs-believe-wolves-will-try-to-trade-julius-randle-01jjaajjt8cq

That link is a pretty good synopsis. The Donte injury could certainly change things more than anything else, but without that I think they would have leaned more to keeping him.

We don’t even know who they are. Different owners might be have different views. Either way, I think it is like we talked about with Karl, if the right player becomes available we make the move. If not, maybe not. But if we don’t then Naz must start and take the majority of Randle’s minutes. Otherwise he will leave. Naz should be at least 33 minutes starting and ending every game. We also need to sign the best available C and give them some of Randle’s minutes at the backup C. Randle might complain, but that is secondary to keeping Naz and winning.

[Klomp]

Either way, I think it is like we talked about with Karl, if the right player becomes available we make the move. If not, maybe not.

I absolutely agree with this.

On the Naz part, I'm not so sure. I think it's important to remember that he is a fan favorite here. Like almost cult hero status. Signing somewhere else, he probably won't be a star player. He probably won't be a fan favorite, not right away at least because that cultivates over time. Heck, he might not even start. And that's okay. Starting isn't everything for all players. But that's part of the situation here too. We might think that starting is the most important thing for him here, but that might not be the case. He willingly re-signed here to come off the bench behind an even more entrenched starting duo.

[winforlose]

Either way, I think it is like we talked about with Karl, if the right player becomes available we make the move. If not, maybe not.

I absolutely agree with this.

On the Naz part, I'm not so sure. I think it's important to remember that he is a fan favorite here. Like almost cult hero status. Signing somewhere else, he probably won't be a star player. He probably won't be a fan favorite, not right away at least because that cultivates over time. Heck, he might not even start. And that's okay. Starting isn't everything for all players. But that's part of the situation here too. We might think that starting is the most important thing for him here, but that might not be the case. He willingly re-signed here to come off the bench behind an even more entrenched starting duo.

It is true that Naz is beloved here. It is true that Naz makes secondary income through TSR and could probably find more sponsors. It is true that Naz could have probably made more money going elsewhere. The real question that only he knows the answer to is whether he is fine with the Randle situation? If yes then he might not opt out, or might opt out and resign a better money deal but with no need for promises on expanded role. Otherwise he might say you mistreated me and put someone inferior in the starting and closing lineups, suppressed my minutes in a contract year, and forced me to change my position from 3/4 to 4/5 after I spent a summer slimming down. We don’t know Naz, but from the outside looking in, the Wolves keep doing Naz dirty, and if it doesn’t stop they could very well lose him.

[shrink]

MIA beat writer

Here’s how the Heat generally views what it wants in return for Butler in what likely would be a multi-team trade: If Miami cannot land an All-Star player in return (highly unlikely), the Heat would be open to taking pretty good players with expiring contracts.

If the Heat is going to take back pretty good players with another year left on their contracts beyond this season, Miami wants an additional carrot or two — likely a draft pick.

The Heat has no interest in taking back big money that extends beyond next season because it’s eyeing the summer of 2026 as the ideal time to have significant cap space

I still think we won’t trade Randle, but he fits a small window of players that the Heat would be looking for in a Jimmy deal.

[Klomp]

Otherwise he might say you mistreated me and put someone inferior in the starting and closing lineups, suppressed my minutes in a contract year, and forced me to change my position from 3/4 to 4/5 after I spent a summer slimming down. We don’t know Naz, but from the outside looking in, the Wolves keep doing Naz dirty, and if it doesn’t stop they could very well lose him.

What's interesting is that this is not actually fully accurate.

Naz is averaging 25.3 mpg this season. All of last season (which includes 14 starts), he averaged 24.2 mpg. Looking deeper, at the same point in the 2023-24 season, he was averaging 22.4 mpg through the season's first 44 games.

Also worth pointing out that for all intents and purposes, I'd say Randle is the one who is taking more of the reserve C minutes over Reid. That's why you saw Garza sub in for Randle at the end of the first quarter in Memphis while Reid was on the court.

Again, I feel like this might be a bigger case of there being a disconnect between what the coaches and front office see and what the fans see. Fans see a massive drop from Towns to Randle across the board, but I'm not sure that's how it's looked at within Mayo Clinic Square.

[cmoss84]

MIA beat writer

Here’s how the Heat generally views what it wants in return for Butler in what likely would be a multi-team trade: If Miami cannot land an All-Star player in return (highly unlikely), the Heat would be open to taking pretty good players with expiring contracts.

If the Heat is going to take back pretty good players with another year left on their contracts beyond this season, Miami wants an additional carrot or two — likely a draft pick.

The Heat has no interest in taking back big money that extends beyond next season because it’s eyeing the summer of 2026 as the ideal time to have significant cap space

I still think we won’t trade Randle, but he fits a small window of players that the Heat would be looking for in a Jimmy deal.

Nets OUT: Cameron Johnson, Bogdanovic, Sharpe
Nets IN: Beal

Heat OUT: Jimmy, JJJ
Heat IN: Randle, Bojan, '25 FRP (Cle), '27 FRP (Cle)

Suns OUT: Beal, '25 FRP (Cle), '27 FRP (Cle)
Suns IN: Butler

MN OUT: Randle
MN IN: Cameron Johnson, Day'Ron Sharpe, JJJ

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Having idea of trading Randle and finding a team who want him are for a decent return is definitely not easy. At that stage we may have to keep him this year and next year which will not be a good news on my opinion. Let's see what about at the deadline. I do hope i am wrong.
If it's not the case ( as we will failed this year and probably only in the play-in, at best 1st round of PO), my bet is that if we keep Randle, we will trade Rudy next off season.

Starting reading in ''social media' how Randle is not that bad and how Rudy slow down may be a sign....

[Butter]

Would the Wolves trade Randle for Jerami Grant straight up?

[BlacJacMac]

It would be a legal trade, but I sure hope we wouldn’t.

[wolves_89]

Would the Wolves trade Randle for Jerami Grant straight up?

I don't see any chance that the Wolves would be interested. First, taking on the 2 extra years of Grant's contract would be a massive mistake (looking at the size/length of Grant's deal and his production, he is likely among the top 10 worst contracts in the NBA). Second, Finch still sounds very in on Randle and I don't see him buying into the major drop off in talent that would result from the exchange. Lastly, Randle has been gradually fitting better, thus reducing the need to move him. I don't think Julius gets moved unless the talent coming back is significantly better than Grant.

[minimus]

why would Randle pickup his player option? he has been having a healthy season, but he is 30yo. if he waits next offseason he will be 31yo by then. I think his will be either sign an expensive 2-3 yr deal (with team option) like FVV, Bruce Brown did. Or sign a 3-4 year deal for less AAV, but more guaranteed money in contract.