2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[nomansland]

The Nuggets are only 1.5 games behind second in the west. If they can make up that ground, does the #1 Thunder have enough distance between the #2 Nuggets to claim "Shai's record is better"?

No, they'll need to get within 5 or so games for that argument to die.

Pretty sure that every 70+ win team has had the MVP so unless Oklahoma City falls off a cliff Shai is going to get it.

[nomansland]

Can there be a tie for the MVP vote? Really they both deserve it so far.

[zike_42]

The Nuggets are only 1.5 games behind second in the west. If they can make up that ground, does the #1 Thunder have enough distance between the #2 Nuggets to claim "Shai's record is better"?

No, they'll need to get within 5 or so games for that argument to die.

Pretty sure that every 70+ win team has had the MVP so unless Oklahoma City falls off a cliff Shai is going to get it.

You are correct, MJ in 95-96 and Steph in 15-16 won MVP in the two 70+ wins seasons.

[sisibilio]

The Nuggets are only 1.5 games behind second in the west. If they can make up that ground, does the #1 Thunder have enough distance between the #2 Nuggets to claim "Shai's record is better"?

No, they'll need to get within 5 or so games for that argument to die.

Pretty sure that every 70+ win team has had the MVP so unless Oklahoma City falls off a cliff Shai is going to get it.

They should go 34-4 the rest of season, it's not imposible but highly unlikely.
66-67 is more realistic.

[sisibilio]

Not sure why folks are still confused about the purpose of the MVP award. It’s not offensive player of the year, and it’s also not best player in the NBA. If it were, there wouldn’t be much conversation to have. But it’s not.

It isn't "BEST player in the team with the better record" either

[RRR3]

It is absurd to claim Jokic has been clearly better than SGA this year. There's no impact stats bearing out Jokic being clearly better, some of them are even favoring SGA. Jokic plays poor defense and SGA plays very good defense, that matters.

Very funny to me how in the past Jokic fans (rightly) pointed out his superior impact stats to Embiid when there was a debate between the two but now that SGA has the edge in multiple impact stats Jokic is STILL "clearly better" because uh...vibes?

It's hard to take someone seriously who's pushing impact stats and then goes back to calling Jokic a poor defender. But what metrics are favoring SGA? LEBRON gives a small edge. EPM expected has a pretty good one. EPM actual does flip (I've never really understood the nuances of EPM). I've not seen an updated RAPM for this year...likely a bit early. Estimated RAPTOR is almost even but still Jokic favored.

But you're right about no clear edge here for Jokic.

Fine, mediocre defender. happy?

[-Luke-]

Can there be a tie for the MVP vote? Really they both deserve it so far.

Theoretically, if half the voters voted for Jokic 1 and SGA 2 and the other half the other way around, there would be a tie and the same number of first place votes and second place votes. So both would get the MVP unless i'm missing some rule.

It's ridiculous that one of the two will come away empty-handed. But than we had the season when Wilt averged 50/25 and Robertson averaged a triple-double, and neither won the MVP.

[BobbyPortisEyes]

Just curious what the board thinks.

I'm asking because I don't know who I'd vote for. I'm probably in the minority but I've always kind of liked the fact that the MVP is a narrative-driven award because I think storytelling is important. SGA has been amazing and the rise of OKC is undoubtedly one of the biggest stories this year.

On the other hand, Jokic is clearly the best player in basketball and no one else comes even close. When you look at his numbers, it seems kind of blasphemous to not give it to him.

[JN61]

There is a week old thread here for the conclusive opinion of this board:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2431093

[BigGargamel]

Check out the 400 reply thread stickied to the top of this board. All the opinions you could ever want going on in there.

[BobbyPortisEyes]

lol my bad, we can lock this

[MoneyTalks41890]

Can there be a tie for the MVP vote? Really they both deserve it so far.

I was actually thinking this would be a good year for co-MVP. I assume that hasn’t actually happened before. But even though some would complain I think it would generate a lot of discussion. I’d be open to counter arguments, but I think that would be cool. Pulling that off in the voting though, another story.

[dhsilv2]

It is absurd to claim Jokic has been clearly better than SGA this year. There's no impact stats bearing out Jokic being clearly better, some of them are even favoring SGA. Jokic plays poor defense and SGA plays very good defense, that matters.

Very funny to me how in the past Jokic fans (rightly) pointed out his superior impact stats to Embiid when there was a debate between the two but now that SGA has the edge in multiple impact stats Jokic is STILL "clearly better" because uh...vibes?

It's hard to take someone seriously who's pushing impact stats and then goes back to calling Jokic a poor defender. But what metrics are favoring SGA? LEBRON gives a small edge. EPM expected has a pretty good one. EPM actual does flip (I've never really understood the nuances of EPM). I've not seen an updated RAPM for this year...likely a bit early. Estimated RAPTOR is almost even but still Jokic favored.

But you're right about no clear edge here for Jokic.

Fine, mediocre defender. happy?

That's a huge difference. Most impact metrics have him as a plus defender just not much of a plus. That's a huge difference from what people make it out to be.

[dhsilv2]

Can there be a tie for the MVP vote? Really they both deserve it so far.

I was actually thinking this would be a good year for co-MVP. I assume that hasn’t actually happened before. But even though some would complain I think it would generate a lot of discussion. I’d be open to counter arguments, but I think that would be cool. Pulling that off in the voting though, another story.

Kidd and Grant managed co-rookie of the year. So it's certainly not impossible.

[ropjhk]

Here's an attempt at a simple MVP formula:

played wins X stats X dependance factor

Played wins is just simply the number of wins in games played. The value of an MVP is in the wins they deliver and they can only do that if they are playing. For stats I'll use PER. It's not perfect but it's a way to simplify the equation. Dependance factor is an imaginary rating for how much a team depends on that player. Although not perfect, I'll use VORP as it represents the added number of points per 100 possessions over a replacement player. Open to suggestions to improve the formula.

SGA: 35 wins X 30.9 PER X 5.2 VORP = 5623.8 PERVORPWINS

Jokic: 26 wins X 33.6 PER X 5.8 VORP = 5066.88 PERVORPWINS

So SGA is my MVP leader right now and that's mainly due to wins. Jokic may be the better player and his team may be more dependant on him but ultimately you need to deliver wins in order to be crowned MVP.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

Once again I will say what I’ve said since the very beginning of the season: it does not matter what Jokic does. He will not win MVP this season. He could average 35/15/15 and it wouldn’t matter. The only thing that can overshadow arguably the greatest season of all time is voter fatigue and media bias.

With that being said, SGA is absolutely having an MVP caliber season in absolute terms. Not only that, he is having an elite level MVP season. Whoever said this is D Rose happening all over again has no idea what they’re talking about. But the season SGA is having, which is the best guard season since MVP Steph (and before that it’s the best guard season since Jordan), still isn’t as good as the season Jokic is having.

[CharityStripe34]

Two of the top three candidates have been the best players in the Association for the last 5 years, and now we're getting an insane peak from SGA who's vaulted himself into that "Top Three" conversation. It's an insane race. Second half of the season is going to be nuts. Denver and Milwaukee are going to try to get into Top 3 seed and stay there (fourth at worst). OKC is having an historic season.

Slightly off topic, but I wish Giannis would've gotten his third in 2023 over Embiid. You'd have Freak and Joker with three a piece to cement their "rarified air" status. Then imagine them meeting in the Finals in a "WM main event" like Hogan/Savage or Austin/Rock to settle the "best of his generation" crown. Obviously theatrical but I keep thinking back to that insane Greece/Serbia WC quali game in 2022 in Belgrade as being one of the greatest games I've witnessed in years, and both men were dominant in their own way.

SGA is having an incredible season and completely deserving of the MVP. This is a fascinating race.

[dhsilv2]

Here's an attempt at a simple MVP formula:

played wins X stats X dependance factor

Played wins is just simply the number of wins in games played. The value of an MVP is in the wins they deliver and they can only do that if they are playing. For stats I'll use PER. It's not perfect but it's a way to simplify the equation. Dependance factor is an imaginary rating for how much a team depends on that player. Although not perfect, I'll use VORP as it represents the added number of points per 100 possessions over a replacement player. Open to suggestions to improve the formula.

SGA: 35 wins X 30.9 PER X 5.2 VORP = 5623.8 PERVORPWINS

Jokic: 26 wins X 33.6 PER X 5.8 VORP = 5066.88 PERVORPWINS

So SGA is my MVP leader right now and that's mainly due to wins. Jokic may be the better player and his team may be more dependant on him but ultimately you need to deliver wins in order to be crowned MVP.

Why use a rate metric (PER) with an accumulation metric (VORP)?

[Dino353]

SGA doing more with less

[iggymcfrack]

Top teams in the NBA by Sagarin predictor right now:

1. Oklahoma City 99.61
2. Denver 96.95
3. Boston 96.75
4. Cleveland 96.65
5. Memphis 96.34

That’s nuts. Denver was a thin team that people thought might miss the playoffs and now they’ve turned it all the way around to become the second best team in the whole league.

Their net rating with Joker on the floor is +13.1. That’s better than the Lakers ever were with Kobe for a season in 7 Finals runs. It’s a better Net Rating than the Warriors averaged with Durant on the floor over 3 seasons.

He’s taken a team that’s -9 with him on the bench and literally made them an all-time team when he’s on the floor. He’s still slightly behind SGA in EPM and there’s the games played thing, but if they keep up this level and play the same number of games the rest of the way, I think Jokic has to take the award. His level of play is just inhuman.