Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[winforlose]

why would Randle pickup his player option? he has been having a healthy season, but he is 30yo. if he waits next offseason he will be 31yo by then. I think his will be either sign an expensive 2-3 yr deal (with team option) like FVV, Bruce Brown did. Or sign a 3-4 year deal for less AAV, but more guaranteed money in contract.

So the first question is whether the Wolves want Randle around long term. If yes, what you suggest is possible. If no, then Randle has only two paths to his next deal. The first is a sign and trade, the second is free agency. Most teams do not have enough space under the cap to pay Randle what he wants and still build out there roster. The other variable is the free agent class. BI is the biggest name, but there are a few others of interest who could complicate things for Randle. Tyus Jones is an example if he stays healthy.

My point in all this that opting in gives him probably his top dollar next year, at least as a free agent. If he wants to get more it probably goes through us in the form on an extension or sign and trade.

[shrink]

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Finally, a reason to give a rat’s ass about Jimmy

[shrink]

Btw, I saw someone suggest this part of a Jimmy trade:

Randle for John Collins, Kevin Love, one of those late 1st (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN)

John Collins doesn’t have Randle’s upside, but he’s having a good year in Utah (8.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 18.1 PPG, and a ridiculous 44.6% 3P% on 3.3 3PA. He’s 27 and has a player option for $26.6 mil. Kevin Love is 36, and guaranteed $4.15 mil next year. He’s averaging 4.6 RB, 6.2 PPG but only 11 MPG.

I don’t mind Collins here as the main part of a Randle trade, and Love would probably get minutes as a back up center. But is this enough value for Randle?

[moss_is_1]

Btw, I saw someone suggest this part of a Jimmy trade:

Randle for John Collins, Kevin Love, one of those late 1st (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN)

John Collins doesn’t have Randle’s upside, but he’s having a good year in Utah (8.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 18.1 PPG, and a ridiculous 44.6% 3P% on 3.3 3PA. He’s 27 and has a player option for $26.6 mil. Kevin Love is 36, and guaranteed $4.15 mil next year. He’s averaging 4.6 RB, 6.2 PPG but only 11 MPG.

I don’t mind Collins here as the main part of a Randle trade, and Love would probably get minutes as a back up center. But is this enough value for Randle?

I could be talked into it. Collins is horrible on defense, but I'm not sure he's even been asked to play it for that good of a team. Love probably wouldn't even want to come back. I'm happy getting any sort of picks in deals, we need more assets.

[winforlose]

Btw, I saw someone suggest this part of a Jimmy trade:

Randle for John Collins, Kevin Love, one of those late 1st (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN)

John Collins doesn’t have Randle’s upside, but he’s having a good year in Utah (8.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 18.1 PPG, and a ridiculous 44.6% 3P% on 3.3 3PA. He’s 27 and has a player option for $26.6 mil. Kevin Love is 36, and guaranteed $4.15 mil next year. He’s averaging 4.6 RB, 6.2 PPG but only 11 MPG.

I don’t mind Collins here as the main part of a Randle trade, and Love would probably get minutes as a back up center. But is this enough value for Randle?

Edit to fix: I forgot Collins had a player option for next year. I think he probably opts in, and after that he is an MLE player.

I got attacked on the trade board for suggesting Randle has positive value, but I think a lot of that is bias by NBA fans on this site. His numbers are great relative to his contract. Plenty of teams will want him. Someone told me the Wolves have no leverage because of a bad money situation, but the leverage is teams wanting a good player in Randle. The same way the Heat have leverage even with Butler acting like an ***hole. Randle for Collins and the 29th or 30th pick is probably not as much value as some other team will offer. The question is who has Randle in their long term plans?

[BlacJacMac]

Btw, I saw someone suggest this part of a Jimmy trade:

Randle for John Collins, Kevin Love, one of those late 1st (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN)

John Collins doesn’t have Randle’s upside, but he’s having a good year in Utah (8.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 18.1 PPG, and a ridiculous 44.6% 3P% on 3.3 3PA. He’s 27 and has a player option for $26.6 mil. Kevin Love is 36, and guaranteed $4.15 mil next year. He’s averaging 4.6 RB, 6.2 PPG but only 11 MPG.

I don’t mind Collins here as the main part of a Randle trade, and Love would probably get minutes as a back up center. But is this enough value for Randle?

Probably.

Collins is a significantly better and more consistent shooter than Randle. He's a better rebounder and he's a less bad defender. He's not nearly the passer/playmaker, but he also doesn't demand the ball or turn it over as much.

He also has twice the Playoff experience of Randle.

[Klomp]

It's interesting that we tend to hear many of the same names linked to us every trade season. Though I would add that the Collins steam largely died down after the last management change, which makes me wonder if he was more of a Rosas guy.

[shrink]

I suspect if we use the MLE next season it might be on Collins. I don’t think his market will be much beyond it.

First, I question whether we will be $14.1 mil under the luxury threshold to offer the full MLE. I think the goal will be to slide in under the second apron, and use the tax-payer MLE.

Second, if Collins agent tells him his best FA offers out there are either MLE, he’s just going to pick up that $26.6 player option.

[winforlose]

I suspect if we use the MLE next season it might be on Collins. I don’t think his market will be much beyond it.

First, I question whether we will be $14.1 mil under the luxury threshold to offer the full MLE. I think the goal will be to slide in under the second apron, and use the tax-payer MLE.

Second, if Collins agent tells him his best FA offers out there are either MLE, he’s just going to pick up that $26.6 player option.

Already edited to fix, I forgot the player option.

[shrink]

It's interesting that we tend to hear many of the same names linked to us every trade season. Though I would add that the Collins steam largely died down after the last management change, which makes me wonder if he was more of a Rosas guy.

Yeah, I feel like ATL was trying to stick us with John Collins (plus) for KAT for like five years, and I question my judgement (why I posted!), that I now find him palatable.

[BlacJacMac]

It's interesting that we tend to hear many of the same names linked to us every trade season. Though I would add that the Collins steam largely died down after the last management change, which makes me wonder if he was more of a Rosas guy.

Yeah, I feel like ATL was trying to stick us with John Collins for like five years, and I question my judgement (why I posted!), that I now find him palatable.

I've never been a big Collins fan. But I like him more than Randle and do think he's a better fit for our roster.

[shrink]

I got attacked on the trade board for suggesting Randle has positive value, but I think a lot of that is bias by NBA fans on this site. His numbers are great relative to his contract. Plenty of teams will want him. Someone told me the Wolves have no leverage because of a bad money situation, but the leverage is teams wanting a good player in Randle. The same way the Heat have leverage even with Butler acting like an ***hole. Randle for Collins and the 29th or 30th pick is probably not as much value as some other team will offer. The question is who has Randle in their long term plans?

I made a post today stating that I believe that while high-risk, Ja Morant and Joel Embiid have a lot of trade value. It’s an unpopular opinion, because they are unpopular players - even to me. But my point was that the key to GM job security is winning, and that often means taking risks, on high upside players. Randle is a two-time All NBA player, he’s putting up good numbers, and his contract is neither too expensive, nor too long.

As internet posters here, I think we often let our feelings about players get mixed in with our evaluations of their value to Real Life NBA GMs. Randle is playing better here, he’s not the reason we have been an average team. But fans who don’t watch the Wolves are going to think, “I don’t like the guy” and search for specious evidence to support their emotional valuation.

[Guest84]

Can you imagine Collins in the locker room after that poster dunk from Ant put him out?? Not a big deal but...

[wolves_89]

Btw, I saw someone suggest this part of a Jimmy trade:

Randle for John Collins, Kevin Love, one of those late 1st (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN)

John Collins doesn’t have Randle’s upside, but he’s having a good year in Utah (8.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 18.1 PPG, and a ridiculous 44.6% 3P% on 3.3 3PA. He’s 27 and has a player option for $26.6 mil. Kevin Love is 36, and guaranteed $4.15 mil next year. He’s averaging 4.6 RB, 6.2 PPG but only 11 MPG.

I don’t mind Collins here as the main part of a Randle trade, and Love would probably get minutes as a back up center. But is this enough value for Randle?

For me, the biggest reason to move Randle is to guarantee we have enough space under the 2nd apron to sign both Naz and NAW. Getting Collins and Love does literally nothing to fix that problem while making the team somewhat worse. Getting a very late 1st doesn't add enough value to make it worthwhile. I think I'd rather ride out the season with Randle, since he's been much better over the last few weeks (more effort on defense and has cut down the ball stopping on offense).

Ideally a better deal for Randle materializes in the next couple of weeks, but I'm not overly optimistic about it happening.

[winforlose]

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[Klomp]

Nickeil Alexander-Walker to LAC for 1st and Bones Hyland?

Note: There is some complicated arithmetic for what pick LAC will get, but I think the most likely outcome is that this would technically be the OKC pick. That's how it currently lands on Tankathon.

Essentially, it's NAW for a 1st and a flier. I don't know how many teams are able and willing to offer both halves like this, and it's someone Connelly knows well.

Dane mentioned this today, but I wonder if there's a chance we'll see Julius packaged with DET 1st in an offseason trade. This trade throws in another pick into the pot, and the UTA 2nd could also be sweetener, depending on how they feel about the draft class.

[winforlose]

Nickeil Alexander-Walker to LAC for 1st and Bones Hyland?

Note: There is some complicated arithmetic for what pick LAC will get, but I think the most likely outcome is that this would technically be the OKC pick. That's how it currently lands on Tankathon.

Essentially, it's NAW for a 1st and a flier. I don't know how many teams are able and willing to offer both halves like this, and it's someone Connelly knows well.

Dane mentioned this today, but I wonder if there's a chance we'll see Julius packaged with DET 1st in an offseason trade. This trade throws in another pick into the pot, and the UTA 2nd could also be sweetener, depending on how they feel about the draft class.

I would call this the NAW floor, and I would rather sign NAW to a 12-15 deal and trade him next year as an MLE. Hyland is not a flier, he is a failure. Pick 29 or 30 is not that much more valuable than a high 2nd, and I wouldn’t accept it as the end result. If you want to 3 team it and move it for another player, sure. I would take Jose Alverado for NAW in a heartbeat. If that means giving the Pels Hyland and OKC’s pick, okay. But I don’t accept a bad pick and try to get something done later.

[Klomp]

Nickeil Alexander-Walker to LAC for 1st and Bones Hyland?

Note: There is some complicated arithmetic for what pick LAC will get, but I think the most likely outcome is that this would technically be the OKC pick. That's how it currently lands on Tankathon.

Essentially, it's NAW for a 1st and a flier. I don't know how many teams are able and willing to offer both halves like this, and it's someone Connelly knows well.

Dane mentioned this today, but I wonder if there's a chance we'll see Julius packaged with DET 1st in an offseason trade. This trade throws in another pick into the pot, and the UTA 2nd could also be sweetener, depending on how they feel about the draft class.

I would call this the NAW floor, and I would rather sign NAW to a 12-15 deal and trade him next year as an MLE. Hyland is not a flier, he is a failure. Pick 29 or 30 is not that much more valuable than a high 2nd, and I wouldn’t accept it as the end result. If you want to 3 team it and move it for another player, sure. I would take Jose Alverado for NAW in a heartbeat. If that means giving the Pels Hyland and OKC’s pick, okay. But I don’t accept a bad pick and try to get something done later.

Fair. What if it was Amir Coffey?

[dschroeder01]

Nickeil Alexander-Walker to LAC for 1st and Bones Hyland?

Note: There is some complicated arithmetic for what pick LAC will get, but I think the most likely outcome is that this would technically be the OKC pick. That's how it currently lands on Tankathon.

Essentially, it's NAW for a 1st and a flier. I don't know how many teams are able and willing to offer both halves like this, and it's someone Connelly knows well.

Dane mentioned this today, but I wonder if there's a chance we'll see Julius packaged with DET 1st in an offseason trade. This trade throws in another pick into the pot, and the UTA 2nd could also be sweetener, depending on how they feel about the draft class.

Bones Hyland? I know Connelly likes him, but yeesh, not sure he's an actual NBA player. Awful defender and one of the worst 2 pt shooters/finishers in the league. All he does is get up lots of 3s at an average %. I hope that's not a guy we'd actually trade for even with the Connelly history.

[minimus]

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Imagine having two best shooters of this season, and Gobert setting thousand of screens.