ImageImageImageImageImage

How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart

Despy
Freshman
Posts: 96
And1: 68
Joined: Jul 14, 2024

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#201 » by Despy » Fri Jan 24, 2025 6:08 am

Lol people bringing up deni advija rookie year as a positive. He started 32 games and averaged 6 points
9 and 20
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,648
And1: 1,216
Joined: Mar 28, 2021
 

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#202 » by 9 and 20 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 9:32 am

This season has been a series of ten game losing streaks, each separated by one win. No idea how we beat the Hawks twice to start the season. Not really alarmed since this was the plan. Just annoyed at this im reminded with each loss and trash performance how long it will be until the Wiz are any good.
Can't say I do. Who else gonna shoot?
User avatar
doclinkin
RealGM
Posts: 15,032
And1: 6,773
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#203 » by doclinkin » Fri Jan 24, 2025 2:00 pm

Despy wrote:Lol people bringing up deni advija rookie year as a positive. He started 32 games and averaged 6 points


Not bringing it up as a positive. Saying calm the f down Wiz fans. When you recruit a super young player you have no idea how they are going to turn out. You just know they’re going to struggle early. Bub is one of the youngest NBA players in history. Comparison with other super young players shows he's not out of line. Shows good signs for a guy who won’t turn 20 til July.

Respected posters say “young players if they’re talented put up good numbers on bad teams”. Then a half dozen posts later we see Deni’s stats listed. This years Deni. But Deni was no good as a rookie. He was a kid. Putting up bad numbers on the best team we’ve seen in the last 10 years. As a back up. With HOFers and Allstars to take the pressure off of him.

Bub is putting up similar numbers against starters. On a terrible team. With no one to pass to. On a team designed to lose for 2 years straight. So that we keep a 100% chance of a top 5 pick this year. Not a “less than one in 10 chance”.

That’s a 14% chance for Cooper Flagg. 27% Dylan Harper. 40% Ace Bailey. 52% VJ Edgecombe. 100% Kasparas Jakucionas or anybody else you like in this draft.

And we are designed to be bad enough that we don’t lose our top 8 draft pick next year. No matter how good the guy is that we draft this year.

If fans are despondent over this team’s chances: turn the channel to college ball. Watch Duke. Rutgers. Watch high school highlights of AJ Dybantsa. Live vicariously on YouTube instead of through this years squad.
User avatar
doclinkin
RealGM
Posts: 15,032
And1: 6,773
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#204 » by doclinkin » Fri Jan 24, 2025 2:02 pm

We don’t have a match up winning franchise player to build around yet. Of course we are going to be crushed by teams with first ballot HOFers on the roster. We have super young rookies who project as high caliber role players at best. Like Deni is. A world class role player.

And they are surrounded by what. One former all star ? Did JV ever make it to an ASG. Google says no. Okay zero all stars. Past or current. One former 6MOY in Brogdon. Which is basically saying the best role player on any team. That is what even Sarr has been projected as. If you read his draft reports: a 7’ Deni Avdija. A defensive distributor who can eventually guard 1-5 at a high level when he gets stronger and the game slows down for him.

We are building with the best player available at every draft spot. But that player isn’t always a first option scorer. Sometimes you’re drafting a high level role player. Eventually. If so you’ll struggle for a bit. But show me who else they should have drafted that is playing so much better. And then show me how we’d be winning with that guy.

Because anything else is missing out on the plan. Start young. Draft for potential. Give them a long runway. Best Player Available. Collect picks. Suck to get lucky. Until you get a franchise guy. Then build around that guy.

But crying about being bad this year totally misses the point. Young teams don’t win. But. Young players do grow and mature. And get better. Stronger. More skilled. Criticism of raw rookies is half baked. They’re not done yet. Give them time.
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 16,837
And1: 4,062
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#205 » by dobrojim » Fri Jan 24, 2025 2:47 pm

+1 Doc.

Stating the obvious that it's hard to stomach oh-fer
months. But we're on top of the tank board. Next year
needs to be about this bad. We cannot afford to lose a
FRP even if we do get Flagg.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,614
And1: 9,109
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#206 » by payitforward » Fri Jan 24, 2025 10:19 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Despy wrote:Lol people bringing up deni advija rookie year as a positive. He started 32 games and averaged 6 points

Not bringing it up as a positive. Saying calm the f down Wiz fans. When you recruit a super young player you have no idea how they are going to turn out. You just know they’re going to struggle early. Bub is one of the youngest NBA players in history. Comparison with other super young players shows he's not out of line. Shows good signs for a guy who won’t turn 20 til July.

Respected posters say “young players if they’re talented put up good numbers on bad teams”. Then a half dozen posts later we see Deni’s stats listed. This years Deni. But Deni was no good as a rookie. He was a kid. Putting up bad numbers on the best team we’ve seen in the last 10 years. As a back up. With HOFers and Allstars to take the pressure off of him.

Bub is putting up similar numbers against starters. On a terrible team. With no one to pass to. On a team designed to lose for 2 years straight. So that we keep a 100% chance of a top 5 pick this year. Not a “less than one in 10 chance”.

That’s a 14% chance for Cooper Flagg. 27% Dylan Harper. 40% Ace Bailey. 52% VJ Edgecombe. 100% Kasparas Jakucionas or anybody else you like in this draft.

And we are designed to be bad enough that we don’t lose our top 8 draft pick next year. No matter how good the guy is that we draft this year.

If fans are despondent over this team’s chances: turn the channel to college ball. Watch Duke. Rutgers. Watch high school highlights of AJ Dybantsa. Live vicariously on YouTube instead of through this years squad.

Well done, doc -- on the money!
badinage
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,747
And1: 1,228
Joined: May 09, 2002

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#207 » by badinage » Sat Jan 25, 2025 4:28 am

doclinkin wrote:We don’t have a match up winning franchise player to build around yet. Of course we are going to be crushed by teams with first ballot HOFers on the roster. We have super young rookies who project as high caliber role players at best. Like Deni is. A world class role player.

And they are surrounded by what. One former all star ? Did JV ever make it to an ASG. Google says no. Okay zero all stars. Past or current. One former 6MOY in Brogdon. Which is basically saying the best role player on any team. That is what even Sarr has been projected as. If you read his draft reports: a 7’ Deni Avdija. A defensive distributor who can eventually guard 1-5 at a high level when he gets stronger and the game slows down for him.

We are building with the best player available at every draft spot. But that player isn’t always a first option scorer. Sometimes you’re drafting a high level role player. Eventually. If so you’ll struggle for a bit. But show me who else they should have drafted that is playing so much better. And then show me how we’d be winning with that guy.

Because anything else is missing out on the plan. Start young. Draft for potential. Give them a long runway. Best Player Available. Collect picks. Suck to get lucky. Until you get a franchise guy. Then build around that guy.

But crying about being bad this year totally misses the point. Young teams don’t win. But. Young players do grow and mature. And get better. Stronger. More skilled. Criticism of raw rookies is half baked. They’re not done yet. Give them time.


Yeah, yeah — we get it. Or, most of us do.

Posting Deni’s stats, as I did, wasn’t to say he’s better now than Bub, who’s a lot younger, is now. It was to say: this was a piece. And one that was only gonna get better. And the team. said: buh-bye.

The team that is trying to acquire good players, so that it can become better and (maybe) one day good, said: buh-bye.

The lotto could turn out great for the team. Or — it could turn out not-great. At this point, there appears to be a clear gap between Flagg/Bailey (and maybe Harper) and Edgecombe/Jakucionis. If the Wizards don’t land a Top 3, it will be hugely disappointing — putting pressure on 2026 to be the year we land Dybantsa (or Boozer). It’s entirely possible the team misses out of that level of talent entirely.

Am I saying that this isn’t the right path? No no —it’s clearly the right path. It’s a long-overdue path.
And it takes time to build it this way. We know that.

But are Winger and Dawkins the guys to do it?

I hope so, but I have to say: I’m more skeptical than I thought I’d be (or wanted to be) at this point.

I’ve already seen some not-small whiffs in player personnel (Deni, Kuz, Tyus), I’m not seeing more than a JAG at this point in BC, the body language of the players is often not great (this is supposed to be a culture reset), and I have a nagging worry that they are so intent on a certain prototype of a player (long, rangy, with handles) that they will overlook (or slight) a talent who doesn’t fit that model.

Win the lotto this year and all of that doesn’t matter that much. Win it this year and next and we may be in business.

Anyway, no matter how many times you post your explanations of the FO’s plan, doclinkin — and I do love these posts, and wish that the FO would take a cue from you and speak (and speak often) to the fan base in a direct and clear way — no matter how many times you try to persuade me to believe, I just find myself saying: maybe?

Sorry. I’m just not there. Want to be — the mind is willing … but just … am not.

But one fine morning —
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 16,837
And1: 4,062
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#208 » by dobrojim » Sat Jan 25, 2025 1:59 pm

Was sorta watching the halftime show (NOP-MEM) last night and the former NBA guy (not the 2 media people)
was talking about NOP and how bad teams find ways to lose, but even at that, usually (he might of said always)
they find a way to win 4-5 games in a row sometime during the season. Somehow I don't think we're going to
accomplish that but maybe if I looked at the schedule, I could make a guess. That said, a brief run of
success for a bad team like we are, usually comes as a result of fortuitous circumstances which
cannot be predicted in advance.

Anyone want to guess what our longest winning streak of the season might be. I'd say 3 at the most.

Also, will we set a new futility record for least number of wins? Looking it up as I thought it
was one of the 6er teams during "the process" but that's not what I'm seeing. In one place it says the
WIzards with 6 wins, but that has never happened since the team changed names. Sp I'm not sure
what they are talking about there. I'd say it's touch and go as far as winning at least 9 games.

I think it currently is the 6ers.

72-73 6ers - 9 wins
15-16 6ers - 10 wins

How strong is the tank?
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,141
And1: 22,566
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#209 » by nate33 » Sat Jan 25, 2025 3:08 pm

I think we will have a 2-game win streak at some point later in the season, probably when our schedule pits us against other tanking teams (with them having an even greater tank incentive since they would probably be 4 or 5 games ahead of us in the win column).

I expect 12 wins total.
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 16,837
And1: 4,062
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#210 » by dobrojim » Sat Jan 25, 2025 3:26 pm

Not an unreasonable prediction.
We have 6 wins now halfway through the
season.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
dckingsfan
RealGM
Posts: 34,703
And1: 20,321
Joined: May 28, 2010

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#211 » by dckingsfan » Sat Jan 25, 2025 7:29 pm

badinage wrote:
doclinkin wrote:We don’t have a match up winning franchise player to build around yet. Of course we are going to be crushed by teams with first ballot HOFers on the roster. We have super young rookies who project as high caliber role players at best. Like Deni is. A world class role player.

And they are surrounded by what. One former all star ? Did JV ever make it to an ASG. Google says no. Okay zero all stars. Past or current. One former 6MOY in Brogdon. Which is basically saying the best role player on any team. That is what even Sarr has been projected as. If you read his draft reports: a 7’ Deni Avdija. A defensive distributor who can eventually guard 1-5 at a high level when he gets stronger and the game slows down for him.

We are building with the best player available at every draft spot. But that player isn’t always a first option scorer. Sometimes you’re drafting a high level role player. Eventually. If so you’ll struggle for a bit. But show me who else they should have drafted that is playing so much better. And then show me how we’d be winning with that guy.

Because anything else is missing out on the plan. Start young. Draft for potential. Give them a long runway. Best Player Available. Collect picks. Suck to get lucky. Until you get a franchise guy. Then build around that guy.

But crying about being bad this year totally misses the point. Young teams don’t win. But. Young players do grow and mature. And get better. Stronger. More skilled. Criticism of raw rookies is half baked. They’re not done yet. Give them time.


Yeah, yeah — we get it. Or, most of us do.

Posting Deni’s stats, as I did, wasn’t to say he’s better now than Bub, who’s a lot younger, is now. It was to say: this was a piece. And one that was only gonna get better. And the team. said: buh-bye.

The team that is trying to acquire good players, so that it can become better and (maybe) one day good, said: buh-bye.

The lotto could turn out great for the team. Or — it could turn out not-great. At this point, there appears to be a clear gap between Flagg/Bailey (and maybe Harper) and Edgecombe/Jakucionis. If the Wizards don’t land a Top 3, it will be hugely disappointing — putting pressure on 2026 to be the year we land Dybantsa (or Boozer). It’s entirely possible the team misses out of that level of talent entirely.

Am I saying that this isn’t the right path? No no —it’s clearly the right path. It’s a long-overdue path.
And it takes time to build it this way. We know that.

But are Winger and Dawkins the guys to do it?

I hope so, but I have to say: I’m more skeptical than I thought I’d be (or wanted to be) at this point.

I’ve already seen some not-small whiffs in player personnel (Deni, Kuz, Tyus), I’m not seeing more than a JAG at this point in BC, the body language of the players is often not great (this is supposed to be a culture reset), and I have a nagging worry that they are so intent on a certain prototype of a player (long, rangy, with handles) that they will overlook (or slight) a talent who doesn’t fit that model.

Win the lotto this year and all of that doesn’t matter that much. Win it this year and next and we may be in business.

Anyway, no matter how many times you post your explanations of the FO’s plan, doclinkin — and I do love these posts, and wish that the FO would take a cue from you and speak (and speak often) to the fan base in a direct and clear way — no matter how many times you try to persuade me to believe, I just find myself saying: maybe?

Sorry. I’m just not there. Want to be — the mind is willing … but just … am not.

But one fine morning —

Kind of where I am at as well. Now, if Winger trades some of our youngsters for multiple FRPs. Then I understand the pattern.

If they keep bringing on players like Kuz, Poole, Kispert, et. al., SMH. Then luck has to be the plan (luck into a couple of franchise changing FRPs).
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,614
And1: 9,109
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#212 » by payitforward » Sat Jan 25, 2025 9:49 pm

badinage wrote:...are Winger and Dawkins the guys to do it?

I hope so, but I have to say: I’m more skeptical than I thought I’d be (or wanted to be) at this point.

I’ve already seen some not-small whiffs in player personnel (Deni, Kuz, Tyus)...

You're talking yourself into misery.

Ernie thru Tommy -- created a team utterly devoid of value, a team that could not improve via a set of trades & also was unable to sign difference-making FAs. We are doing the only thing it was possible to do.

You're stating an opinion. No more. E.g. I don't think trading Deni was a "whiff." I also doubt that we simply gave Kuz a yay/nay on the Dallas trade. Good reason to believe the salary-kicker was a big part of the issue. & failing to move Tyus for a R2 pick was by no means a "not-small whiff." That's an invention. We took a chance on something, & it didn't work out as we'd have liked it to.

badinage wrote:...I’m not seeing (Bub as) more than a JAG at this point in BC....

Sheesh.... What credit would you give an opinion of Deni 40 games into his career? Based on what he'd done to that point.

I see Bub as an extremely talented, extremely young guard who has a chance to develop into something special. He might fail, of course. That is a possibility for every just-drafted kid.

badinage wrote:...I have a nagging worry that they are so intent on a certain prototype of a player (long, rangy, with handles) that they will overlook (or slight) a talent who doesn’t fit that model....

I'm sure they will miscalculate from time to time. Impossible not to in this business. Yet, liking "A" doesn't mean that you can't appreciate "B."

Might the rebuild fail? Sure! Any effort can fail. & it's way too early to declare success, obviously.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,614
And1: 9,109
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#213 » by payitforward » Sat Jan 25, 2025 10:09 pm

dckingsfan wrote:...If they keep bringing on players like Kuz, Poole, Kispert, et. al., SMH....

"They" didn't bring on Kuz. They didn't bring Kispert.

As to Poole, we gave CP3 for Poole, Baldwin & Rollins plus a 2027 R2 pick & a 2030 R1 pick.
That's what CP3 brought.

Should we have gotten more for CP3 than that? What would be a way to answer that question?

Here's one way: we traded CP3 to GS, right? So... what did they get for him?

The answer is: ZERO. They got nothing for CP3.

I imagine we could have done as well as that, right? :) We could have kept CP3, let him play out his final year with us instead of the Warriors, & then, like the Warriors, watched him become a UFA & leave.

Is that what you would have done? Or would you have been more capable than the Warriors FO of getting value for CP3.

If you're smarter & more competent than the Golden State Warriors Front Office, great!

If you think that just maybe they are actually more competent than you, why then you have to be extremely happy with getting Poole, Baldwin & Rollins plus a 2027 R2 pick & a 2030 R1 pick.

Unless of course you think getting nothing for CP3 would have been better than that.
AFM
RealGM
Posts: 12,447
And1: 8,666
Joined: May 25, 2012
   

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#214 » by AFM » Sat Jan 25, 2025 10:35 pm

No one is actually answering the question. I’m personally extremely concerned and alarmed.
User avatar
doclinkin
RealGM
Posts: 15,032
And1: 6,773
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#215 » by doclinkin » Sun Jan 26, 2025 2:12 am

badinage wrote:I’ve already seen some not-small whiffs in player personnel (Deni, Kuz, Tyus), I’m not seeing more than a JAG at this point in BC, the body language of the players is often not great (this is supposed to be a culture reset), and I have a nagging worry that they are so intent on a certain prototype of a player (long, rangy, with handles) that they will overlook (or slight) a talent who doesn’t fit that model.


BC. Bilal or Bub Carrington?

Either way, my argument is it's hard to get a read on the upside of super young NBA talent. Not my strength either, so if you have a good track record on picking winners in this regard I'd defer. But even the best of the best start out looking mediocre. Here's a list of familiar names who started their NBA careers as teenagers. Guards or guys who have played guard at some point.

https://stathead.com/tiny/JEpnL

Kobe 7.6 ppg.
TMac 7.0 ppg
Devin Booker 13.8 ppg
Bub 8.9 ppg
Bilal 8.4 ppg
Saint Deni Avdija 6.3 ppg

Pretty tightly clustered in per game stats. But even stretching to Per36 or looking at usage % stats you don't get a lot of separation.

Of this crew Bilal has the highest eFG% and is 2nd only to Kobe in TS%. He was behind only Deni and Kobe in defensive +/-

Bub blows the field away in assist %, is 3rd in 2pt FG%, despite shooting mostly mid-range jumpers off the bounce.
Bub is 2nd shortest of this group but is 3rd in defensive rebounding per 36.

Deni had the best 2pt % and worst 3FG%, but either way was dead last in usage.

Point being it's hard to say how the young cats will turn out. Unlikely they end up in the HOF of course :clown: but if they follow Deni's trajectory they could end up damned good players. Difference is while --unlike Deni-- they get all the minutes they need to work on their games, this also means all of their failures are public as well. Yeah this will affect your body language if you are largely credited for your team's tanktastic record. I'm not sure Deni's confidence would have been helped by his playing all that many minutes either. His body language often was what got him benched early on. To me I think this crew is doing pretty well carrying the fact that their team has no hope of winning most nights out there. But they put in effort and in my eyes are not primarily to blame for lackluster play. The hope is we will see new energy when particular vets find another team.
The Consiglieri
Veteran
Posts: 2,824
And1: 1,013
Joined: May 09, 2007

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#216 » by The Consiglieri » Sun Jan 26, 2025 5:40 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
DCZards wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I agree. They aren't that good.

Kyshawn is an abysmal three-point shooter. Bub is horrible at penetrating and finishing. Alex can't finish through minimal contact, and stout centers easily displace him under the basket for easy layups and dunks .

Our rookies don't impress me.

In the past 25 years, who have the Bullets/Wizards drafted that was actually good?

Rip Hamilton, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Trevor Booker, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Deni Avidja

...and just about every one of these players were labeled "busts" by some folks on this board when they were rookies. :D

Check the record. I'm sure you can find plenty of posts where Beal, Porter, Oubre, and Avdjia were being called "busts" or "disappointments" when they were rookies.

It amazes me how smart people on this board expect 19 and 20 yr olds to come into the league and go toe-to-toe with grown a** men with several years of NBA experience. That's an insult to the vets.

(Butler wasn't drafted by the Zards he came in a trade with LA for Kwame. He played for Miami prior to being traded to LA.)
Good catch. Washington drafted Jared Jeffries right after Miami selected Butler.


Nor Haywood. He was acquired via trade. The only sustained period of draft success ever was 1992-1995 when they landed Guggs, Cheaney, Howard, and Wallace in a four draft run. All reasonable hits. We would not even have two consecutive hits again, let alone four, until Beal/Porter in '12/'13, a good 17 years later.
The Consiglieri
Veteran
Posts: 2,824
And1: 1,013
Joined: May 09, 2007

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#217 » by The Consiglieri » Sun Jan 26, 2025 6:00 am

9 and 20 wrote:This season has been a series of ten game losing streaks, each separated by one win. No idea how we beat the Hawks twice to start the season. Not really alarmed since this was the plan. Just annoyed at this im reminded with each loss and trash performance how long it will be until the Wiz are any good.


I just find it so odd that people are bothered by this. They are tanking and rock bottoming in a period in which there are back to back mega prospects. Odds are we miss on both, but at least this draft has some good depth w/quality ceiling potential unlike last year.

I have to be straight here, I found 1987 (when I first started paying attention) to 1991, and 1998-2009, and 2018-2022 infinitely worse. There's basically never been a time period in which I believed this team had any chance in hell of building anything worth a ---- ever the entirety of my fandom except for 1994-1998, and 2010-2012. I've basically never believed for a second there was a chance in hell of anything, period, ever other than those tiny stretches the past 40ish years.

I find it odd how infuriated fans are about us sucking. Who gives a ----? We've been watching directionless, hopeless, trash basketball for forty years. At least there's a plan here, it may not workout, but I would 100% argue there was no plan to speak of the previous 40 years other than the Howard/Webber/Wallace, and Wall/Beal builds, and both of those were short circuited rather soon after they were put into place (one within 4 years, the other within 7). We know what this is. We are going full tank mode from 2023-2026 or 2027 depending upon how the lottery and our selections work out. It's 4 or 5 seasons. Who seriously cares? I think we've got a couple older fans in here, and for them, I feel bad, but honestly, if you stuck around for the 80's, 90's, aught's, and the previous decade, this is literally NOTHING. It's so so so so so much worse watching knowing there was no hope whatsoever, and that's basically been the truth for nearly 90% of our fandom's on this board. You've got '95-'97, the Arenas run ('05-'07 I think), and then that brief period w/Wall and Beal (about '14-'18), and otherwise its been utterly hopeless since 1979, so basically about 11 good seasons out of the past 45, but even in those brief runs, I don't think anyone anywhere thought any of those builds was winning anything other than the Howard/Webber/Wallace moment when we knew we had 2 to 3 potential all stars. We all knew the Arenas team was fundamentally flawed, and we all knew that the Wall/Beal build was a 4/5 team with no championship upside.

To me, this is literally the first time in 30 years I've thought there was any hope at all, other than a brief moment w/Wall/Beal when we knew if we could land one superstud, that might be enough (the sad truth being, he was actually there, in '13, we just couldn't see him, like the rest of the league, save the Bucks). I'm ecstatic that we're tanking perfectly and appear locked into #1 going into the lottery. It will take a really strong run to push us out of the 1 slot heading into the lottery, finally, in a great draft year. It's just too bad they idiotically changed the rules five years ago.
User avatar
Chocolate City Jordanaire
RealGM
Posts: 54,559
And1: 10,319
Joined: Aug 05, 2001
       

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#218 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sun Jan 26, 2025 6:48 am

The Consiglieri wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
DCZards wrote:...and just about every one of these players were labeled "busts" by some folks on this board when they were rookies. :D

Check the record. I'm sure you can find plenty of posts where Beal, Porter, Oubre, and Avdjia were being called "busts" or "disappointments" when they were rookies.

It amazes me how smart people on this board expect 19 and 20 yr olds to come into the league and go toe-to-toe with grown a** men with several years of NBA experience. That's an insult to the vets.

(Butler wasn't drafted by the Zards he came in a trade with LA for Kwame. He played for Miami prior to being traded to LA.)
Good catch. Washington drafted Jared Jeffries right after Miami selected Butler.


Nor Haywood. He was acquired via trade. The only sustained period of draft success ever was 1992-1995 when they landed Guggs, Cheaney, Howard, and Wallace in a four draft run. All reasonable hits. We would not even have two consecutive hits again, let alone four, until Beal/Porter in '12/'13, a good 17 years later.
I stand corrected again. Thanks.

GM John Nash was responsible for those early 90's solid drafts. Back in those 6 drafts I posted on AOL's Bullets message board.
I suggested Don MacLean for Robert Pack before it occurred.
Years, under Grunfeld, I suggested Jahidi White for Brevin Knight, also before it happened.
Lastly, Morris Almond (6-0 as a Wizards player) became a Wizard after I had a dream and called his former agent, who passed a message along.

Would any of you believe I was on a movie shoot alone with a very famous actress? I signed an NDA. Surreal. About on the level with that dream.
Tre Johnson is the future of the Wizards.
badinage
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,747
And1: 1,228
Joined: May 09, 2002

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#219 » by badinage » Sun Jan 26, 2025 2:57 pm

payitforward wrote:
badinage wrote:...are Winger and Dawkins the guys to do it?

I hope so, but I have to say: I’m more skeptical than I thought I’d be (or wanted to be) at this point.

I’ve already seen some not-small whiffs in player personnel (Deni, Kuz, Tyus)...

You're talking yourself into misery.

Ernie thru Tommy -- created a team utterly devoid of value, a team that could not improve via a set of trades & also was unable to sign difference-making FAs. We are doing the only thing it was possible to do.

You're stating an opinion. No more. E.g. I don't think trading Deni was a "whiff." I also doubt that we simply gave Kuz a yay/nay on the Dallas trade. Good reason to believe the salary-kicker was a big part of the issue. & failing to move Tyus for a R2 pick was by no means a "not-small whiff." That's an invention. We took a chance on something, & it didn't work out as we'd have liked it to.

badinage wrote:...I’m not seeing (Bub as) more than a JAG at this point in BC....

Sheesh.... What credit would you give an opinion of Deni 40 games into his career? Based on what he'd done to that point.

I see Bub as an extremely talented, extremely young guard who has a chance to develop into something special. He might fail, of course. That is a possibility for every just-drafted kid.

badinage wrote:...I have a nagging worry that they are so intent on a certain prototype of a player (long, rangy, with handles) that they will overlook (or slight) a talent who doesn’t fit that model....

I'm sure they will miscalculate from time to time. Impossible not to in this business. Yet, liking "A" doesn't mean that you can't appreciate "B."

Might the rebuild fail? Sure! Any effort can fail. & it's way too early to declare success, obviously.


BC = Bilal. I didn’t mean Bub. Who put the parenthetical in?

“Talking myself into misery” — is that what this is? And would it be so unreasonable? After 40 years of having been ground down?

Ah, but this is the light, you say. It’s a-coming.

And it might be!

But it also …

The point is, I am watching and hoping. But I am not yet ready to give benefit of the doubt. And it’s not so much that I retain my skepticism as that I can’t seem to shake it off.
leswizards
Pro Prospect
Posts: 934
And1: 255
Joined: Jun 09, 2010

Re: How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be? 

Post#220 » by leswizards » Sun Jan 26, 2025 3:57 pm

It seems to me that the Wizards team is invested in the following players (ie, via long term contracts with high salary or via 1st round picks). Kuzma, Poole, Kispert, Saar, Bilal, Bub, and George.

It seems to me that if EG or shep had put this team together, posters on this board would be bashing the team and the draft picks.

I’m fine with Kispert. I hated the Kuzma resigning. I didn’t quite like the Poole trade, but I was willing to give the new management the benefit of the doubt on taking a risk that I hoped would pan out.

In the modern NBA, you want players who can shoot high percentage from behind the 3 and/or in the paint. You want players who can create high percentage shots in those areas for either themselves or their teammates. You want players who can get to the free throw line at a disproportionate rate. You want players who defensively can basically disrupt offensive player’s abilities to do all of the above.

Of the players that the Wizards have invested in, I see almost no evidence to believe that they can provide the aforementioned abilities. I am not certain what I am supposed to be excited about.
Viva le tank! At this pace, it will never end.

Return to Washington Wizards