My Predictions for the Trade deadline and remainder of season

[waffle]

I also think nothing of consequence will happen. Which is too bad.

I'd love to see us with a top 6-8 players who get 90% of the minutes going forward. We continue to be middling but keep our pick. Off-season LOTS of bodies walk.

Not in a great position going forward regardless

[ChettheJet]

I think the closeness of the West and the sort of easy separation in the East combined with usual 2-3 GMs who feel pressure to make a move to hopefully save their jobs will have 4-6 teams making the big desperate move which normally backfires. While AK is the cautious type, I think Lavine and Vucevic with their contracts are wanted by enough teams that the Bulls will be part of swinging the super max contracts.

Normally I'd say it's better to make separate Zach and Vuc deals to get the best return but with there being no 2 team trades for Butler and Beal I think the Bulls can move their guys by adding Carter, Craig and Terry and end up with something that gets them to the play in this year if some of the teams above them now make the wrong moves or sets them up for the draft and some FA space in the summer ifteams leapfrog over them.


So
Lavine, Vucevic, Carter, Craig and Terry spend Valentine's day with new relationships. Who the Bulls get back depends on where Butler and Beal end up, do the Lakers find a third team to take what they want to send out, does PORT finally start moving on type of their extra depth.

[MrSparkle]

Losses would let Portland, Philly catch up… let San Antonio and Miami build a cushion.

More wins, we pass the Spurs. Pretty strong odds they get #11 (along with Cooper Flag, perhaps).

Waiting to the deadline to nuke or improve this roster made no sense. AK’s holding out for the offer that won’t be that there. No one is going to bid gold for Vuc and Zach.

Centers that could be on the market: RW3, Ayton, Valanciunas, Poeltl, maybe Claxton, Kessler, Randle, Mitch Robinson if he can return soon

Buy-low candidates: Nurkic, Drummond, Landale

Then the stars available: Jimmy, Zion, Ingram, maybe Paul George… and then Cam Johnson, Jerami Grant.

Sadly, I think AK is looking for a Giddey or Roco/Saric type return. Mid FRPs are a total long shot. Can’t wait for the next goofy tweak to this 10-seed.

[Dan Z]

Losses would let Portland, Philly catch up… let San Antonio and Miami build a cushion.

More wins, we pass the Spurs. Pretty strong odds they get #11 (along with Cooper Flag, perhaps).

Waiting to the deadline to nuke or improve this roster made no sense. AK’s holding out for the offer that won’t be that there. No one is going to bid gold for Vuc and Zach.

Centers that could be on the market: RW3, Ayton, Valanciunas, Poeltl, maybe Claxton, Kessler, Randle, Mitch Robinson if he can return soon

Buy-low candidates: Nurkic, Drummond, Landale

Then the stars available: Jimmy, Zion, Ingram, maybe Paul George… and then Cam Johnson, Jerami Grant.

Sadly, I think AK is looking for a Giddey or Roco/Saric type return. Mid FRPs are a total long shot. Can’t wait for the next goofy tweak to this 10-seed.

I think teams are going to be less likely to trade first round picks for many reasons (new rules, some teams have little to no picks, other teams are rebuilding, etc). That means if AK is expecting a bunch of picks in a trade (or trades) then he'll probably be disappointed.

[MrSparkle]

Losses would let Portland, Philly catch up… let San Antonio and Miami build a cushion.

More wins, we pass the Spurs. Pretty strong odds they get #11 (along with Cooper Flag, perhaps).

Waiting to the deadline to nuke or improve this roster made no sense. AK’s holding out for the offer that won’t be that there. No one is going to bid gold for Vuc and Zach.

Centers that could be on the market: RW3, Ayton, Valanciunas, Poeltl, maybe Claxton, Kessler, Randle, Mitch Robinson if he can return soon

Buy-low candidates: Nurkic, Drummond, Landale

Then the stars available: Jimmy, Zion, Ingram, maybe Paul George… and then Cam Johnson, Jerami Grant.

Sadly, I think AK is looking for a Giddey or Roco/Saric type return. Mid FRPs are a total long shot. Can’t wait for the next goofy tweak to this 10-seed.

I think teams are going to be less likely to trade first round picks for many reasons (new rules, some teams have little to no picks, other teams are rebuilding, etc). That means if AK is expecting a bunch of picks in a trade (or trades) then he'll probably be disappointed.

Yeah. Well I don’t think he is…

Honestly, Vuc and Zach probably remain on the roster past Feb.

[MrSparkle]

Id be shocked if we made a trade bulls just never do trades like these . Jalen rose trade was like last one . It's always just tiny garbage swaps .

Not to defend the Bulls, but most teams don't make big moves at the deadline. There hasn't been a time in the past 20 years where it would have made sense for us to be a buyer in a big move, yet we were a buyer once anyway when we bought Vuc in a "big move" which was one of the dumbest things the franchise ever did.

In terms of selling, we haven't a "big move" player to sell. Only small things we can sell off.

Generally speaking, there just hasn't been a whole lot that made sense in terms of big deadline moves to do in the past 25 years if that's just your expectation.

Haliburton, Kyrie… there have been some rewarding buy-low deadline deals recently. Nevermind some classics (Rasheed, Artest/Miller for Indy, Pau for LAL, Jimmy for Philly till they let him walk).

Of course Vuc/Zach aren’t that type of player… and the league knows this…

Reality is the Bulls can get better returns on draft night for an expiring Vuc and 1y less of guaranteed money for Zach… both coming off strong seasons… draft night trade market is much more fluid…

Comes at the cost of probably giving up our pick to SAS if they stand pat with the team… and whatever improved offers they get won’t be dramatically better.

But the pick aside, you do have more flexibility with Zach and Vuc when the draft board is revealed.

My 2c is you finally walk the Hinkie/Ainge halls of shame, either dump them for ketchup or put these 2 on the “injury reserve.” Maybe move Coby in the meantime, before that contract negotiation is mentioned. Get something for him. Tank out the year, keep the pick, shop Zach/Vuc on draft night. That is probably the optimal scenario IMO, as opposed to trying to win this terrible current trade market.

[Dan Z]

Losses would let Portland, Philly catch up… let San Antonio and Miami build a cushion.

More wins, we pass the Spurs. Pretty strong odds they get #11 (along with Cooper Flag, perhaps).

Waiting to the deadline to nuke or improve this roster made no sense. AK’s holding out for the offer that won’t be that there. No one is going to bid gold for Vuc and Zach.

Centers that could be on the market: RW3, Ayton, Valanciunas, Poeltl, maybe Claxton, Kessler, Randle, Mitch Robinson if he can return soon

Buy-low candidates: Nurkic, Drummond, Landale

Then the stars available: Jimmy, Zion, Ingram, maybe Paul George… and then Cam Johnson, Jerami Grant.

Sadly, I think AK is looking for a Giddey or Roco/Saric type return. Mid FRPs are a total long shot. Can’t wait for the next goofy tweak to this 10-seed.

I think teams are going to be less likely to trade first round picks for many reasons (new rules, some teams have little to no picks, other teams are rebuilding, etc). That means if AK is expecting a bunch of picks in a trade (or trades) then he'll probably be disappointed.

Yeah. Well I don’t think he is…

Honestly, Vuc and Zach probably remain on the roster past Feb.

I agree and predict that AK will have another press conference where he says there were no deals worth making.

[dougthonus]

Reality is the Bulls can get better returns on draft night for an expiring Vuc and 1y less of guaranteed money for Zach… both coming off strong seasons… draft night trade market is much more fluid…

I agree. Unless you have something some other team is desperate for, or it's your last chance to sell (ie, expiring), I think generally deals on draft day are better. Not exclusively true, depending on context of course, but there is more flexibility and more teams have hope. If you have the desperate team or you have a unique situation, that might not be true, just don't see that this year with the Bulls.

Comes at the cost of probably giving up our pick to SAS if they stand pat with the team… and whatever improved offers they get won’t be dramatically better.

We're 4 games ahead in the loss column from 10th and need to drop to 11th, I don't know that I'd be all that nervous about giving up our pick either way. We might of course, and the risk is certainly higher if we hold on to those guys, but I think we'll probably keep it.

Granted, if we finish 10th, we could have a team pass us, but the odds aren't that high of an 11-14 team team moving up.

[jnrjr79]

Reality is the Bulls can get better returns on draft night for an expiring Vuc and 1y less of guaranteed money for Zach… both coming off strong seasons… draft night trade market is much more fluid…

I agree. Unless you have something some other team is desperate for, or it's your last chance to sell (ie, expiring), I think generally deals on draft day are better. Not exclusively true, depending on context of course, but there is more flexibility and more teams have hope. If you have the desperate team or you have a unique situation, that might not be true, just don't see that this year with the Bulls.

Comes at the cost of probably giving up our pick to SAS if they stand pat with the team… and whatever improved offers they get won’t be dramatically better.

We're 4 games ahead in the loss column from 10th and need to drop to 11th, I don't know that I'd be all that nervous about giving up our pick either way. We might of course, and the risk is certainly higher if we hold on to those guys, but I think we'll probably keep it.

Granted, if we finish 10th, we could have a team pass us, but the odds aren't that high of an 11-14 team team moving up.

I think the thing that has to be weighed here is exactly how confident are you that an offseason trade is more likely and/or will bring a better return, and balance that against the utility of making a trade now to further solidify the prospects of keeping the pick. For instance, do you just bite the bullet and trade Vooch for a couple of seconds, if you can, now, even if you think you might do better in the offseason?

For Zach, I just don’t know what will be available at the deadline and both of the more solid rumors/ideas that have been discussed, MPJ and Beal, have not seemed to involve enough draft capital to take on those bad contracts, so for those I think the downside may outweigh pick chasing.

[dougthonus]

I think the thing that has to be weighed here is exactly how confident are you that an offseason trade is more likely and/or will bring a better return, and balance that against the utility of making a trade now to further solidify the prospects of keeping the pick. For instance, do you just bite the bullet and trade Vooch for a couple of seconds, if you can, now, even if you think you might do better in the offseason?

I would trade Vuc for an expiring just to get him off the roster.

For Zach, I just don’t know what will be available at the deadline and both of the more solid rumors/ideas that have been discussed, MPJ and Beal, have not seemed to involve enough draft capital to take on those bad contracts, so for those I think the downside may outweigh pick chasing.

Agree.

[nomorezorro]

i think you have to trade vuc now no matter what.

1. even if you're not feeling the offers you're getting right now, you couldn't expect to get much more if you wait until the offseason — he's not the kind of asset you get a haul for.
2. if you keep him on the roster past the deadline, it's possible he cools off and you miss the chance to sell high on him.
3. if you keep him on the roster past the deadline, it's possible he doesn't cool off, and a team that should be in tank/development mode should not be winning any games on the back of 34-year-old nikola vucevic

[sco]

i think you have to trade vuc now no matter what.

1. even if you're not feeling the offers you're getting right now, you couldn't expect to get much more if you wait until the offseason — he's not the kind of asset you get a haul for.
2. if you keep him on the roster past the deadline, it's possible he cools off and you miss the chance to sell high on him.
3. if you keep him on the roster past the deadline, it's possible he doesn't cool off, and a team that should be in tank/development mode should not be winning any games on the back of 34-year-old nikola vucevic

Good points. I think the bid-ask on Vuc right now is whether they can nab 2 second rounders in addition to expirings. His value is high because he's playing at a high level and there aren't a bunch of guys available out there who can do what he can this season. In the offseason, teams will have more options and his value will likely go down, not up.

[Clint Eastwood]

Disagree on the Vuc takes. If we don’t get a useful young player of first round pick, no reason to trade him. We are only keeping our pick if we don’t have bad lottery luck. Vuc is one of the only real pros on the roster, and i like watching him. He helps others development by not holding the ball and facilitating ball movement for the team. Id rather keep him next year if we don’t get real value for him.

[Guru]

I am assuming right now we have 2 bidders on Vuc and they aren't going to the level we want. As we get closer to the deadline they might have to move up to beat out one another. If one of them says F it and takes a worse offensive center then our power ends and then we trade him for what that team wants. No reason for us to give in now.