Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[shangrila]

Counter argument: What if Playoff Ant, Playoff Jaden, and playoff someone else (one of team finds a new gear, possibly DDV,) shows up. Do we really think that a Memphis or Houston can beat us in a 7 game series? Also doesn’t the experience of winning even one series give Ant, Jaden, DDV, Naz, Rudy, NAW, ect… valuable chemistry and culture boosts. I think seeding is less relevant than some of you think. I also want to point out that 12-16 in clutch games could easily be 20-8 with some better coaching, play calling, and rotations. We are not as bad as our record suggests, and not as far from last year as you might expect. The real key is the trade deadline and subsequent changes to clean up the turnovers, improve box outs, and play in transition more while also not rushing the offense in the half court.

Houston, maybe. Memphis just has our number at this point. We could be the best team in league history and they could have their entire 15 man roster out with injury and I'd still bet my house that they beat us.

I disagree. I think we beat Memphis in a 6 game series. The Suns swept us in the regular season last year, (some of which were blowouts,) yet we swept them in the playoffs. I think there is a decent chance we win a playoff series, and depending on matchup if we got 2 we are right back were we were. Also remember we have held tough with Griz losing by 1 possession, have beaten the rockets, and swept the Nuggets so far. We are not what we were defensively, but we are far from dead in the water.

Cool. Personally I think this is a delusional take, since there is nothing to suggest we can beat Memphis in either the regular or post season and we've got multiple seasons of evidence of that.

The Suns series was an outlier. It would be stupid to assume that that's how it will play out every year.

[winforlose]

Houston, maybe. Memphis just has our number at this point. We could be the best team in league history and they could have their entire 15 man roster out with injury and I'd still bet my house that they beat us.

I disagree. I think we beat Memphis in a 6 game series. The Suns swept us in the regular season last year, (some of which were blowouts,) yet we swept them in the playoffs. I think there is a decent chance we win a playoff series, and depending on matchup if we got 2 we are right back were we were. Also remember we have held tough with Griz losing by 1 possession, have beaten the rockets, and swept the Nuggets so far. We are not what we were defensively, but we are far from dead in the water.

Cool. Personally I think this is a delusional take, since there is nothing to suggest we can beat Memphis in either the regular or post season and we've got multiple seasons of evidence of that.

The Suns series was an outlier. It would be stupid to assume that that's how it will play out every year.

You play a team to 1 or 2 points that is proof you can hang with them. Again, Ant and Jaden have shown another mode. DDV might well have that playoff mode as well. We have beat the Nuggets twice this season, split with the rockets, swept the clippers, 2 wins over Lakers and Mavs, and are one game out of 6th. What makes you think we are doomed in the first round?

[shangrila]

I disagree. I think we beat Memphis in a 6 game series. The Suns swept us in the regular season last year, (some of which were blowouts,) yet we swept them in the playoffs. I think there is a decent chance we win a playoff series, and depending on matchup if we got 2 we are right back were we were. Also remember we have held tough with Griz losing by 1 possession, have beaten the rockets, and swept the Nuggets so far. We are not what we were defensively, but we are far from dead in the water.

Cool. Personally I think this is a delusional take, since there is nothing to suggest we can beat Memphis in either the regular or post season and we've got multiple seasons of evidence of that.

The Suns series was an outlier. It would be stupid to assume that that's how it will play out every year.

You play a team to 1 or 2 points that is proof you can hang with them. Again, Ant and Jaden have shown another mode. DDV might well have that playoff mode as well. We have beat the Nuggets twice this season, split with the rockets, swept the clippers, 2 wins over Lakers and Mavs, and are one game out of 6th. What makes you think we are doomed in the first round?

Never said we were doomed, unless it was Memphis. But I would be surprised if we won a series. I'm also sure that everything you just wrote above, something similar was said by Suns fans last season going into our series.

This team has issues, it's ok to admit that.

[winforlose]

Cool. Personally I think this is a delusional take, since there is nothing to suggest we can beat Memphis in either the regular or post season and we've got multiple seasons of evidence of that.

The Suns series was an outlier. It would be stupid to assume that that's how it will play out every year.

You play a team to 1 or 2 points that is proof you can hang with them. Again, Ant and Jaden have shown another mode. DDV might well have that playoff mode as well. We have beat the Nuggets twice this season, split with the rockets, swept the clippers, 2 wins over Lakers and Mavs, and are one game out of 6th. What makes you think we are doomed in the first round?

Never said we were doomed, unless it was Memphis. But I would be surprised if we won a series. I'm also sure that everything you just wrote above, something similar was said by Suns fans last season going into our series.

This team has issues, it's ok to admit that.

Of course we have issues, that doesn’t mean the playoffs are irrelevant.

Quoting you “This year the playoffs don't matter.”

[minimus]

Sorry, guys, I have to do it, lol!

[winforlose]

Sorry, guys, I have to do it, lol!

You should have gone for the A team “I pity the fool.” Or Webster “What you talking about Willis.”

[BlacJacMac]

Nah. The Will Smith one is decades more relevant and "Jada" is very close to "Jaden".

[Klomp]

Here’s a somewhat risky idea: Is NAW enough to bridge the gap in a pick exchange of our DET 1st for Oklahoma City’s PHI pick?

[moss_is_1]

Btw, I saw someone suggest this part of a Jimmy trade:

Randle for John Collins, Kevin Love, one of those late 1st (worst of CLE, UTA, MIN)

John Collins doesn’t have Randle’s upside, but he’s having a good year in Utah (8.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 18.1 PPG, and a ridiculous 44.6% 3P% on 3.3 3PA. He’s 27 and has a player option for $26.6 mil. Kevin Love is 36, and guaranteed $4.15 mil next year. He’s averaging 4.6 RB, 6.2 PPG but only 11 MPG.

I don’t mind Collins here as the main part of a Randle trade, and Love would probably get minutes as a back up center. But is this enough value for Randle?

Looking at Collins again. He's shooting a ridiculous 54% on corner 3s, which makes up 38% of his attempts.

Man I wish we could get Sexton with Collins to beef up our scoring punch but the salary just wouldn't work.

[cmoss84]

Here’s a somewhat risky idea: Is NAW enough to bridge the gap in a pick exchange of our DET 1st for Oklahoma City’s PHI pick?

I like the idea...but I think I'd rather deal with Chicago for theirs and possibly ball.
Something like:
Randle, NAW, and Utah srp
For
Ball, Smith, and Bulls frp
(2 separate trades or 3rd team involved)

[BlacJacMac]

Here’s a somewhat risky idea: Is NAW enough to bridge the gap in a pick exchange of our DET 1st for Oklahoma City’s PHI pick?

I don’t see OKC needing/wanting NAW. They have 6 SGs playing at least 16 mpg already - featuring shooters and defenders. NAW would basically be a 1 year backup to Caruso, as they would have no reason to resign him after the year.

I’d also actually wonder if he doesn’t play much, would it have an ill effect in SGA (I have no idea how close they are - or aren’t).

[Klomp]

Here’s a somewhat risky idea: Is NAW enough to bridge the gap in a pick exchange of our DET 1st for Oklahoma City’s PHI pick?

I don’t see OKC needing/wanting NAW. They have 6 SGs playing at least 16 mpg already - featuring shooters and defenders. NAW would basically be a 1 year backup to Caruso, as they would have no reason to resign him after the year.

I’d also actually wonder if he doesn’t play much, would it have an ill effect in SGA (I have no idea how close they are - or aren’t).

Good points. Mainly I was trying to find a playoff team with an acquired pick who might not mind falling back in the draft a few slots. Unfortunately, OKC was really the only one that stood out

[shrink]

So I LOVE a good trade, and MIN has some significant holes in their roster, like a back up C and a PG. But as we get closer and closer to the deadline, I think it’s more and more likely that we might not see much of anything.

The problem is that we don’t have any obvious trade candidates to create a salary we could match.

Randle? Julius has been fitting in bette this last month. Continuity. We may need his short term salary on the books this summer?
Jaden? His extension (with no team option), closeness to Ant, and recent improved play push him back to my untradeable list.
NAW? Expiring and SG may have made him tradeable, but with DDV’s health, we need him now. He may be cheap enough to keep.
DiVincenzo? I think he was the target of the KAT trade, as the backcourt mate to Ant, if he develops his playmaking this summer.
Dillingham? Connelly must love him to sink an unprotected 1st and a swap in.
Gobert? Can’t be legally traded.
Conley? Can’t be morally traded, since Connelly promised.
Ant? Be real
Naz? Beloved here. And these guys WANT to be in Minnesota, which is a big deal.

This leaves five players, and the most expensive only makes $2.5 mil (TJ Shannon). He and the others (Garza, Ingles, Minott, Miller) make so little, and can’t be aggregated, that even if we could find players that could fill our needs, that other teams want to trade, they probably make too much money.

[winforlose]

So I LOVE a good trade, and MIN has some significant holes in their roster, like a back up C and a PG. But as we get closer and closer to the deadline, I think it’s more and more likely that we might not see much of anything.

The problem is that we don’t have any obvious trade candidates to create a salary we could match.

Randle? Julius has been fitting in bette this last month. Continuity. We may need his short term salary on the books this summer?
Jaden? His extension (with no team option), closeness to Ant, and recent improved play push him back to my untradeable list.
NAW? Expiring and SG may have made him tradeable, but with DDV’s health, we need him now. He may be cheap enough to keep.
DiVincenzo? I think he was the target of the KAT trade, as the backcourt mate to Ant, if he develops his playmaking this summer.
Dillingham? Connelly must love him to sink an unprotected 1st and a swap in.
Gobert? Can’t be legally traded.
Conley? Can’t be morally traded, since Connelly promised.
Ant? Be real
Naz? Beloved here. And these guys WANT to be in Minnesota, which is a big deal.

This leaves five players, and the most expensive only makes $2.5 mil (TJ Shannon). He and the others (Garza, Ingles, Minott, Miller) make so little, and can’t be aggregated, that even if we could find players that could fill our needs, that other teams want to trade, they probably make too much money.

The most likely candidates are Randle and NAW. We didn’t get to see Shannon practice and we don’t know what is in Finch’s head. If Shannon is a replacement for NAW, and Naz can improve his production as a starter to the point where he equals Randle, now all you need to backfill is the production Naz gave off the bench. 13.6 points and 5.1 rebounds is doable for a backup 4/5 playing real minutes.

Kyle and Dane were talking about trade ideas recently, and I believe it was Kyle who pointed out that TC keeps a very tight lid on trade rumors. No one saw the DLO out trade or KAT out trade coming. An absence of rumors is not the same things as an absence of progress.

Randle might be fitting in better, but his regression to the mean on 3 points shots is enough to say he doesn’t fit in. We saw Denver daring Randle to shoot 3s yesterday. That cannot happen come playoff time. We already lack Jaden’s offensive gravity in the corner. Rudy is as non shooter as you get. Mike has been heating up recently, but he is still not Mike from 23/24 by volume. Everyone assumes the KAT trade was only about money and flexibility, but it might not be. It might be true that whoever ends up with ownership is willing to pay a big tax bill in exchange for valuation increases in the investment. Winning drives up profits but it also increases the worth of the franchise, especially if a new stadium/arena is built. We are speculating based on parameters that other people will or will not tolerate.

Edit to add: forgot to mention, a lot of deals are being held up by Butler. GMs including ours want in on that deal as it might be vehicle for more complicated moves and better returns. It might be true that we already made trade agreements and are waiting for Butler to be resolved before we pull the trigger. We don’t know what we don’t know.

[shrink]

(If you remember any of the fake trades on Dane’s podcast, they would make great discussion here.)

While a GM’s job is to look longterm, it is also vitally important to the team to do well this year. Fan expectations are high, and likely so are Taylor’s, after agreeing to pay for so many extensions. As you mentioned, spending only matters if you win - that’s where the public and team goodwill comes from.

A Randle trade right now is not going to make the team better in such a short period of time, and the players would need to go through another readjustment period when a major piece changes. Moreover, MIN is limited not just by the subset of players that other teams would trade for Randle, but also by the contracts of those players as well face apron and lux issues. For NAW, if he could draw an unlikely late 1st, I am on the fence - but any less of a return probably isn’t worth reducing our playoff chances, plus having his Bird rights, plus the chance we sign him longterm. I wouldn’t do it for just a couple seconds, and GM’s are being stingier lately on who they will trade a 1st for - for the teams that even still own them.

[cmoss84]

How you like these apples?

Chi OUT: Ball, Buzelis, '25 FRP, '25 SRP (SAC)
Chi IN: Sexton, NAW, Eubanks, '25 SRP (Utah)

Utah OUT: Sexton, Eubanks, Sensabaugh, Mills
Utah IN: Randle, Buzelis, '25 SRP (SAC)

MN OUT: Randle, NAW, '25 SRP (Utah)
MN IN: Ball, Sensabaugh, Mills, '25 FRP (Chi)

[winforlose]

(If you remember any of the fake trades on Dane’s podcast, they would make great discussion here.)

While a GM’s job is to look longterm, it is also vitally important to the team to do well this year. Fan expectations are high, and likely so are Taylor’s, after agreeing to pay for so many extensions. As you mentioned, spending only matters if you win - that’s where the public and team goodwill comes from.

A Randle trade right now is not going to make the team better in such a short period of time, and the players would need to go through another readjustment period when a major piece changes. Moreover, MIN is limited not just by the subset of players that other teams would trade for Randle, but also by the contracts of those players as well face apron and lux issues. For NAW, if he could draw an unlikely late 1st, I am on the fence - but any less of a return probably isn’t worth reducing our playoff chances, plus having his Bird rights, plus the chance we sign him longterm. I wouldn’t do it for just a couple seconds, and GM’s are being stingier lately on who they will trade a 1st for - for the teams that even still own them.

I disliked that episode for a couple of reasons.

1. The trade suggestions focused on the wrong players. The notion that you need to save money this year for next year is not necessarily correct. If the Wolves asked Naz to opt in this year with a promise of making it up to him in later years, then the savings could pay for NAW and then some, (assuming Naz was going to make 25-27, that is 10-12.) Also next season Randle could be traded and less money taken back. Also we might be willing to go into the first apron next year and just avoid the 2nd. That gives us a lot of room to move, but reduces our MLE to the tax payer version. My point is that focusing on Lonzo Ball and other expirings is not the correct approach to trading Randle. We need to assume that Mike is not rotation worthy at 38. We need to assume that if DDV plays the point we will have high turnovers and decreased offensive structure. we assume these things because DDV is not a PG and the offense of most playoff teams works best with a point guard. So we need a PG to split the load with Dilly, and preferably one who can play playoff minutes. He also needs to be able to score and hit his 3s. We also need another big, preferably a 4/5 combo who can play with Naz or Rudy. The biggest problem with trade proposals on Real GM is fans say things like I hate how Randle plays therefore he is a bad contract and you need to pay us Dillingham or McDaniels to take him on as an expiring. It sours the experience when you deal with that kind of stupidity.


2. The Wolves have spent 4 years pushing a winning culture on Ant. Kyle wants to break that culture and give a better draft pick to the Cavs all in the name of playing young guys more minutes. What he fails to understand is that the minutes are more valuable because they come amid a playoff push. Because they are high pressure and their teammates are relying on them. This is why garbage time is less valuable than real game minutes. Short of losing an incredible lead there is no worst case for these guys, and so it turns into low stakes exhibition nonsense.

[TheZachAttack]

(If you remember any of the fake trades on Dane’s podcast, they would make great discussion here.)

While a GM’s job is to look longterm, it is also vitally important to the team to do well this year. Fan expectations are high, and likely so are Taylor’s, after agreeing to pay for so many extensions. As you mentioned, spending only matters if you win - that’s where the public and team goodwill comes from.

A Randle trade right now is not going to make the team better in such a short period of time, and the players would need to go through another readjustment period when a major piece changes. Moreover, MIN is limited not just by the subset of players that other teams would trade for Randle, but also by the contracts of those players as well face apron and lux issues. For NAW, if he could draw an unlikely late 1st, I am on the fence - but any less of a return probably isn’t worth reducing our playoff chances, plus having his Bird rights, plus the chance we sign him longterm. I wouldn’t do it for just a couple seconds, and GM’s are being stingier lately on who they will trade a 1st for - for the teams that even still own them.

I disliked that episode for a couple of reasons.

1. The trade suggestions focused on the wrong players. The notion that you need to save money this year for next year is not necessarily correct. If the Wolves asked Naz to opt in this year with a promise of making it up to him in later years, then the savings could pay for NAW and then some, (assuming Naz was going to make 25-27, that is 10-12.) Also next season Randle could be traded and less money taken back. Also we might be willing to go into the first apron next year and just avoid the 2nd. That gives us a lot of room to move, but reduces our MLE to the tax payer version. My point is that focusing on Lonzo Ball and other expirings is not the correct approach to trading Randle. We need to assume that Mike is not rotation worthy at 38. We need to assume that if DDV plays the point we will have high turnovers and decreased offensive structure. we assume these things because DDV is not a PG and the offense of most playoff teams works best with a point guard. So we need a PG to split the load with Dilly, and preferably one who can play playoff minutes. He also needs to be able to score and hit his 3s. We also need another big, preferably a 4/5 combo who can play with Naz or Rudy. The biggest problem with trade proposals on Real GM is fans say things like I hate how Randle plays therefore he is a bad contract and you need to pay us Dillingham or McDaniels to take him on as an expiring. It sours the experience when you deal with that kind of stupidity.


2. The Wolves have spent 4 years pushing a winning culture on Ant. Kyle wants to break that culture and give a better draft pick to the Cavs all in the name of playing young guys more minutes. What he fails to understand is that the minutes are more valuable because they come amid a playoff push. Because they are high pressure and their teammates are relying on them. This is why garbage time is less valuable than real game minutes. Short of losing an incredible lead there is no worst case for these guys, and so it turns into low stakes exhibition nonsense.

I agree with the bolded. One thing that is underrated and we may have slightly found out in Dante's injury is that we have at least one too many guys who all deserve to play "30 minutes per game". Dante being out has allowed NAW/Naz to play closer to 30 mpg and has allowed them to have a more comfortable 15 min rotation guy in Rob. I think Rob will earn a bigger role than that, but that's a good problem to have.

I may not be explaining this well, but I think we struggle with having the right sized guys for the right roles. I do think some of this is solved with Conley aging into the role Jmac or Monte Morris had last year. We also have some holes in our rotation where we need guys with certain skillsets that we don't have enough of. We need a younger version of Conley who can be a backup "1". This will allow the other guards to play as secondary initiators. We also need a big who can play in the short roll as both a passer and scorer, protect the rim, and rebound.

I actually think Randle does some things well, but it's really just that Gobert/Randle/McDaniels as core rotation pieces cannot function together well. If McDaniels was Cam Johnson.... then maybe it would function. If Gobert was Zubac or Hartenstein or even Myles Turner... I think McDaniels and Randle work much better.

NAW is a good player, but he's not a good enough primary initiator to have him and Rob as the two primary initiators. And he's not a good enough shooter to play over Dante. I personally would prioritize adding a big who can be impactful in the short roll as the most important thing we could add. I also think there are a variety of ways to find a younger PG who can play a Monte Morris or Tyus Jones role.

My take that I have landed on is that if there is a move that makes sense to get off Randle without taking back Randle's salary slot for multiple years or losing the Detroit pick you can do that. But I might try to package Randle/NAW and actually try to get one of the skillsets we are missing.

I think if next season you had...

____-Dante-Ant-Jaden-Gobert

Rob-Shannon Jr-Naz

OR

Rob-Ant-Jaden-Naz-Gobert

Dante-Shannon JR-____

These rotations could work really well. I think players that could fit really well are (1) Vucevic (2) Poetl (3) Brandon Clarke (4) DeAndre Ayton (5) Valencunis

Vucevic sneakily shoots >60% on non-restricted area paint shots, 47% on mid range shots, and 41% on above the break shots. Collins and Poeltl are close to 50% on non-restricted area paint shots and Collins can hit corner 3's. Ayton is >50% on non-restricted 2's and can mid range jumpers as well. I think this skillset is really crucial for the Wolves to beat 2 on the ball on Ant.

Rob-Dante-Ant-Jaden-Gobert
Conley-Naz-Vucevic or Valencunis or Ayton or Poeltl

To me this would put you in a good position to be flexible with lineups and attack defenses in ways that they are trying to defend the Wolves. I want to right-size Gobert's role as he ages to ~25 mpg and be more comfortable with playing him less against certain matchups. I think this could help the Wolves rebound better and be better offensively. I think you could then use the Detroit pick to draft another young guard who can be groomed behind Conley.

Both Vucevic and even Ayton expire after next season as well. I would want to then lean into Jaden's scoring as a slasher and then Rob/Dante perimeter shooting and creation.

[minimus]

Nick Richards has been playing well for PHO. Another steal (after Tyus and Monte min.deals ) for PHO. However, I can see how new CBA bites MIN. For instance, MIN cant aggregate contacts and cant receive more salaries in trade than send. So even a small trade target like Nick Richards is not available

[Klomp]

Nick Richards has been playing well for PHO. Another steal (after Tyus and Monte min.deals ) for PHO. However, I can see how new CBA bites MIN. For instance, MIN cant aggregate contacts and cant receive more salaries in trade than send. So even a small trade target like Nick Richards is not available

Of course, Phoenix is working under the same second apron restrictions.