Ayton, Grant, and Simons for anything?

[Wizenheimer]

What are the odds for players to get traded?

Simons. 50% --> 7.29%
Grant 25% --> 7.33%
Ayton 0% --> 0% next year too

ftfy

[tester551]

But…
ORL sends: Isaac, Cole, Jett, DEN 25 frp, 2 srps
POR sends: Simons, Rob Williams

my counter:

Orlando keeps Jett; the Blazers already have enough mediocre shooters from the perimeter and his inclusion bumps the Blazers over the tax line. Not only that, even without Jett, Portland is sending out 79M in current & future salary, but taking back 74M. That's simply not enough savings to represent any leverage or inducement from Orlando. Orlando fans need to keep in mind there are Seattle bean-counters running the Blazers, and this trade doesn't save enough beans

the problem with an Issac for Williams swap is it adds 2M to next year's cap and 8M to the 2026-27 cap. They are both injury prone players but when healthy Williams is much better than Issac. So, as it stands, the Williams for Issac part of this trade breaks significantly in Orlando's favor

which dovetails into another reality: Orlando is getting the two best players, significantly better, in this trade. So that Denver 1st isn't going to be enough leverage. IMO, it would need to be the Orlando 1st, lottery protected; if not conveyed it would need to be the Denver 1st + future 1st or 3 seconds. Now I know that Orlando would probably balk at that extra first so those 3 seconds could be substituted without probably killing the deal

again though, the simple deal is Simons for Anthony + Harris + Orlando 1st (lottery protected); if not, Denver 1st + 1 second

the biggest problem with all of this is that it's possible Portland has an incompetent GM. The way the Blazes have managed the last 2 years seems to be confirmation of that. At this point I will be surprised is Portland does anything more than maybe trade Reath for a 2nd

Solution is:

ORL sends: Isaac, Cole, DEN 25 frp, ORL 25 Frp
POR sends: Simons, Rob Williams

[DusterBuster]

Orlando fans are at the point they want Simons they’re willing to take Ayton… I just can’t…

Wait, what???

No, they are certainly not…Ayton is the worst fit imaginable for their frontcourt…and I kind of like Ayton. He needs to go to ATL.

But…
ORL sends: Isaac, Cole, Jett, DEN 25 frp, 2 srps
POR sends: Simons, Rob Williams

POR gets a versatile defensive standout and mentor to Clingan in Isaac, with considerable financial savings when his deal plummets from $25 to $15m, Cole has one more year at $13m, but could find a home as 3rd guard, Jett is a decent prospect that might complement Scoot long-term, plus picks. Simons is in the way of their future backcourt and in the way of their tank…odds are, he walks without an overpay, so POR would be wise to move him for a significant return.

ORL gets the scorer/playmaker they badly need and plug the frontcourt hole with an elite interior defender. Williams’ injury situation and minutes restriction is similar to Isaac, but that’s workable, given the roster.

Haha, I gave more context. Was just shocked to see any teams fans willing to throw that out.

As for Rob, the Blazers aren’t adding him along with Simons in a deal that only returns one FRP and seconds. For what it’s worth, according to Marang, he says that sources within the Blazers have told him flat out the Blazers aren’t interest in trading RobWill, and if they were, they need to have their socks blown off. Second rounders isn’t gonna net you TimeLord from Cronin.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ripcity/s/8uqkoMT7CH

[Skybox]

But…
ORL sends: Isaac, Cole, Jett, DEN 25 frp, 2 srps
POR sends: Simons, Rob Williams

my counter:

Orlando keeps Jett; the Blazers already have enough mediocre shooters from the perimeter and his inclusion bumps the Blazers over the tax line. Not only that, even without Jett, Portland is sending out 79M in current & future salary, but taking back 74M. That's simply not enough savings to represent any leverage or inducement from Orlando. Orlando fans need to keep in mind there are Seattle bean-counters running the Blazers, and this trade doesn't save enough beans

the problem with an Issac for Williams swap is it adds 2M to next year's cap and 8M to the 2026-27 cap. They are both injury prone players but when healthy Williams is much better than Issac. So, as it stands, the Williams for Issac part of this trade breaks significantly in Orlando's favor

which dovetails into another reality: Orlando is getting the two best players, significantly better, in this trade. So that Denver 1st isn't going to be enough leverage. IMO, it would need to be the Orlando 1st, lottery protected; if not conveyed it would need to be the Denver 1st + future 1st or 3 seconds. Now I know that Orlando would probably balk at that extra first so those 3 seconds could be substituted without probably killing the deal

again though, the simple deal is Simons for Anthony + Harris + Orlando 1st (lottery protected); if not, Denver 1st + 1 second

the biggest problem with all of this is that it's possible Portland has an incompetent GM. The way the Blazes have managed the last 2 years seems to be confirmation of that. At this point I will be surprised is Portland does anything more than maybe trade Reath for a 2nd

Solution is:

ORL sends: Isaac, Cole, DEN 25 frp, ORL 25 Frp
POR sends: Simons, Rob Williams

I would agree to that because I believe Simons is THAT good for ORL, but...

"when healthy Williams is much better than Issac"...this is just completely absurd. Williams, if healthy, is a very good interior defender. Isaac, if healthy, is probably the BEST defender, from perimeter to rim. Isaac is a little off this year, but he still ranks among the very best in defensive ratings. Williams holds down his spot but - watch any time Isaac is on the floor...his impact is felt everywhere. He could lead the league in blocks, steals, AND deflections...if he could survive the FT minutes. He can lock down a PG and get back to meet a Center at the rim. Nobody does that.

...also, I was presuming Jett Howard would have value. If not, happy to keep him.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think the only real chance to move Grant is to SAC if they are dead-set on roster improvement and the talks w/ BRK re CamJo break down. I also think they could be interested in Reath + Banton into the Duarte TPE to add depth.

Grant for Huerter + Lyles + 27 FRP (IDK on protections, at least LP - maybe Top-20)
Reath + Banton into Duarte TPE (Push for a SRP - settle for nothing if needed)

I like buying low on Pat Williams as well if we can move Ayton in the deal.

PDX OUT - Ayton + 2030 NYK SRP
PDX IN - Pat Williams + Kevon Looney + Gui Santos + PDX FRP Returned

CHI OUT - Pat Williams + Nikola Vucevic + PDX FRP
CHI IN - DeAndre Ayton + Gary Payton III + Lindy Waters + 2025 CHI SRP + 2030 NYK SRP + 2030 GSW SRP

GSW OUT - Gary Payton III + Kevon Looney + Lindy Waters + Gui Santos + 2025 CHI SRP + 2030 GSW SRP
GSW IN - Nikola Vucevic

Finally - Simons for Cole + Harris + lower 25 FRP (Buy out Harris)

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kevin Huerter / Matisse Thybulle
F - Toumari Camara / Pat Williams / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Kris Murray / Rayan Rupert
C - Robert Williams III / Donovan Clingan / Kevon Looney

[Wizenheimer]

"when healthy Williams is much better than Issac"...this is just completely absurd. .

notice I didn't say "better defender"....I said better player

this season:

FG%: Issaac .407....Williams .695
2ptFG%: Issaac .564....Williams .714
FT%: Issaac .635....Williams .933
eFG%: Issaac .468....Williams .703
TS%: Issaac .496....Williams .739
PER: Issaac 15.8....Williams 21.2
RebRate Issaac 16.8%....Williams 17.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .130....Williams .190
OffBPM: Issaac -1.4....Williams +0.9
DefBPM: Issaac +1.3....Williams +3.0
BPM: Issaac 0.0....Williams +3.8

career:

FG%: Issaac .444....Williams .727
2ptFG%: Issaac .519....Williams .731
FT%: Issaac .749....Williams .675
eFG%: Issaac .507....Williams .728
TS%: Issaac .540....Williams .732
PER: Issaac 15.2....Williams 22.1
RebRate Issaac 13.2%....Williams 18.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .114....Williams .213
OffBPM: Issaac -1.0....Williams +1.7
DefBPM: Issaac +1.8....Williams +3.1
BPM: Issaac +0.9....Williams +4.7

the only category Isaac is better is in career FT%. For the rest it's a clean sweep for Timelord

[Walton1one]

Which is why he will likely return a 1st round pick, if Cronin trades him, which is unknown.

The injury history is certainly of concern, but IMO teams can convince themselves to overlook that, especially at the trade deadline when they are looking for that final piece for their playoff run, and by all accounts numerous teams have been rumored to have contacted POR about RW3

As for proposed ORL\POR deal, much cleaner w/o RW3 or Isaac involved, the pieces are there

[BlazersBroncos]

I just really hate the idea of moving RWIII for a late R1 pick. He isnt old, he is a clear plus in the locker room and on the floor. He is the ideal bridge to DC. His style of play on both ends (Finishing on offense, energy on defense) is the type of play that helps the youth develop good habits. Of all the vets, he is the one to keep around.

But due to Ayton being a sunk cost we are likely to move off the ONE vet worth keeping.

Do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE to move Ayton for literally ANYTHING with a similar contract expiring date and keep RWIII is my biggest hope for this trade deadline.

[Walton1one]

He has an injury history, he is a UFA next year, has playoff experience,and will have many suitors after him, I think there is little chance that he would resign here, as this team is a long way from being a competing team, and overpaying him to entice him to stay would be dumb

[Skybox]

"when healthy Williams is much better than Issac"...this is just completely absurd. .

notice I didn't say "better defender"....I said better player

this season:

FG%: Issaac .407....Williams .695
2ptFG%: Issaac .564....Williams .714
FT%: Issaac .635....Williams .933
eFG%: Issaac .468....Williams .703
TS%: Issaac .496....Williams .739
PER: Issaac 15.8....Williams 21.2
RebRate Issaac 16.8%....Williams 17.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .130....Williams .190
OffBPM: Issaac -1.4....Williams +0.9
DefBPM: Issaac +1.3....Williams +3.0
BPM: Issaac 0.0....Williams +3.8

career:

FG%: Issaac .444....Williams .727
2ptFG%: Issaac .519....Williams .731
FT%: Issaac .749....Williams .675
eFG%: Issaac .507....Williams .728
TS%: Issaac .540....Williams .732
PER: Issaac 15.2....Williams 22.1
RebRate Issaac 13.2%....Williams 18.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .114....Williams .213
OffBPM: Issaac -1.0....Williams +1.7
DefBPM: Issaac +1.8....Williams +3.1
BPM: Issaac +0.9....Williams +4.7

the only category Isaac is better is in career FT%. For the rest it's a clean sweep for Timelord

That’s a “Tallest Dwarf” contest…neither one factors significantly into anyone’s offense.

[PDXKnight]

Heat want win now short term contracts for Jimmy. So MidBucks? +Brook essentially from the bucks?

Would sort of be hilarious (albeit not expecting it) if we could top whatever Milwaukee is offering with some form of ant + whatever trade. Feels like the suns and bucks don't really have any sweeteners to throw in. I'm sort of expecting some other playoff team to come into play just not sure who that will be. And can't see the Heat taking on Beal's albatross contract

[Butter]

Heat want win now short term contracts for Jimmy. So MidBucks? +Brook essentially from the bucks?

Would sort of be hilarious (albeit not expecting it) if we could top whatever Milwaukee is offering with some form of ant + whatever trade. Feels like the suns and bucks don't really have any sweeteners to throw in. I'm sort of expecting some other playoff team to come into play just not sure who that will be. And can't see the Heat taking on Beal's albatross contract

It's a great point. Really savvy GMs can sometimes figure out a way to exploit these opportunities. It'll be interesting to see if Cronin is able to extract some value for Portland in these upcoming mega trades as a facilitator.

[DaVoiceMaster]

That's kind of how we got Roy. The following excerpt is by Jonathan Givony:

The highlight of the night for me personally was seeing Portland single handedly destroy a trade the Timberwolves and Rockets had in place (#6 Brandon Roy, for Luther Head and #8 Randy Foye) by forcing Minnesota's hand and taking Foye a pick early at #7. That ensured that the Timberwolves had to trade arguably the 2nd best player in the draft to the Blazers for Foye and cash considerations, a move that was entirely lost on ESPN at the time but should go down as one of the most ballsy ever.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Just playing around. Read that Miami wants win now players for Butler. Ayton, Grant, Simons, and Walker for Butler, Rozier, and Robinson.

[Wizenheimer]

"when healthy Williams is much better than Issac"...this is just completely absurd. .

notice I didn't say "better defender"....I said better player

this season:

FG%: Issaac .407....Williams .695
2ptFG%: Issaac .564....Williams .714
FT%: Issaac .635....Williams .933
eFG%: Issaac .468....Williams .703
TS%: Issaac .496....Williams .739
PER: Issaac 15.8....Williams 21.2
RebRate Issaac 16.8%....Williams 17.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .130....Williams .190
OffBPM: Issaac -1.4....Williams +0.9
DefBPM: Issaac +1.3....Williams +3.0
BPM: Issaac 0.0....Williams +3.8

career:

FG%: Issaac .444....Williams .727
2ptFG%: Issaac .519....Williams .731
FT%: Issaac .749....Williams .675
eFG%: Issaac .507....Williams .728
TS%: Issaac .540....Williams .732
PER: Issaac 15.2....Williams 22.1
RebRate Issaac 13.2%....Williams 18.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .114....Williams .213
OffBPM: Issaac -1.0....Williams +1.7
DefBPM: Issaac +1.8....Williams +3.1
BPM: Issaac +0.9....Williams +4.7

the only category Isaac is better is in career FT%. For the rest it's a clean sweep for Timelord

That’s a “Tallest Dwarf” contest…neither one factors significantly into anyone’s offense.

True...neither one has high usage or are much more than afterthoughts in the offense. But Timelord has elite efficiency on offense; and on defense too

Timelord is also much better on the offensive glass. For his career he has a 13.7% offensive rebound rate. That borders on elite. Meanwhile, Isaac's career off reb rate is 6.9%

I get you like your guy, but objectively, Timelord is considerably better when gauged by almost all the numbers; and part of those numbers are the remaining contract balances: Issac 48M; Timelord 25.5M

[PDXKnight]

notice I didn't say "better defender"....I said better player

this season:

FG%: Issaac .407....Williams .695
2ptFG%: Issaac .564....Williams .714
FT%: Issaac .635....Williams .933
eFG%: Issaac .468....Williams .703
TS%: Issaac .496....Williams .739
PER: Issaac 15.8....Williams 21.2
RebRate Issaac 16.8%....Williams 17.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .130....Williams .190
OffBPM: Issaac -1.4....Williams +0.9
DefBPM: Issaac +1.3....Williams +3.0
BPM: Issaac 0.0....Williams +3.8

career:

FG%: Issaac .444....Williams .727
2ptFG%: Issaac .519....Williams .731
FT%: Issaac .749....Williams .675
eFG%: Issaac .507....Williams .728
TS%: Issaac .540....Williams .732
PER: Issaac 15.2....Williams 22.1
RebRate Issaac 13.2%....Williams 18.3%
winshares/48: Issaac .114....Williams .213
OffBPM: Issaac -1.0....Williams +1.7
DefBPM: Issaac +1.8....Williams +3.1
BPM: Issaac +0.9....Williams +4.7

the only category Isaac is better is in career FT%. For the rest it's a clean sweep for Timelord

That’s a “Tallest Dwarf” contest…neither one factors significantly into anyone’s offense.

True...neither one has high usage or are much more than afterthoughts in the offense. But Timelord has elite efficiency on offense; and on defense too

Timelord is also much better on the offensive glass. For his career he has a 13.7% offensive rebound rate. That borders on elite. Meanwhile, Isaac's career off reb rate is 6.9%

I get you like your guy, but objectively, Timelord is considerably better when gauged by almost all the numbers; and part of those numbers are the remaining contract balances: Issac 48M; Timelord 25.5M

Nice research wiz. Definitely it's clear Timelord is superior in almost every way

[PDXKnight]

Just playing around. Read that Miami wants win now players for Butler. Ayton, Grant, Simons, and Walker for Butler, Rozier, and Robinson.

Deal!

[Walton1one]

Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber suffered a broken right foot in Saturday’s loss to Boston, sources tell Shams Charania of ESPN

The timing of the injury is devastating for the Mavericks, who are already missing Dereck Lively and Dwight Powell from their big man rotation. The team announced Wednesday that Lively suffered a stress fracture in his right ankle and will be reevaluated in four weeks. Powell is dealing with a strained right hip that has kept him out of action since January 17.

Sure seems like it would be a good time for Cronin to dial up DAL right now (does he even do that?)

Kleber, Exum + 25’ 1st (lotto protected)
For
RW3

[PDXKnight]

Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber suffered a broken right foot in Saturday’s loss to Boston, sources tell Shams Charania of ESPN

The timing of the injury is devastating for the Mavericks, who are already missing Dereck Lively and Dwight Powell from their big man rotation. The team announced Wednesday that Lively suffered a stress fracture in his right ankle and will be reevaluated in four weeks. Powell is dealing with a strained right hip that has kept him out of action since January 17.

Sure seems like it would be a good time for Cronin to dial up DAL right now (does he even do that?)

Kleber, Exum + 25’ 1st (lotto protected)
For
RW3

Yeah could be good timing in general with one more bidder maybe on the market

Obviously the first is the main piece in this sort of deal but kleber would be a nice rotational big going into 2025-2026

[Wizenheimer]

Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber suffered a broken right foot in Saturday’s loss to Boston, sources tell Shams Charania of ESPN

The timing of the injury is devastating for the Mavericks, who are already missing Dereck Lively and Dwight Powell from their big man rotation. The team announced Wednesday that Lively suffered a stress fracture in his right ankle and will be reevaluated in four weeks. Powell is dealing with a strained right hip that has kept him out of action since January 17.

Sure seems like it would be a good time for Cronin to dial up DAL right now (does he even do that?)

Kleber, Exum + 25’ 1st (lotto protected)
For
RW3

no reason to add Exum to the deal. Blazers don't need to move closer to the tax line. The trade works as Timelord for Kleber. Blazers could just buy-out Kleber next season