K N U C K L E S wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Godymas wrote:Then the other classic throw-ins like the Kings, TWolves, Clippers, well these teams have turned leafs around or have had enough iconic eras and players that they have legitimate fandoms today.
So yes, the Pelicans might be the worst franchise in the NBA and it really sucks.
So I think an earnest discussion here has to really put up front that franchises who began earlier need to be judged differently than those who started later.
The Kings for example began as the Rochester Royals, who had great success in the early years as a small market in part because of the money they made barnstorming. The franchise can always point to what it did in the 1940s/50s to avoid the "worst ever" designation.
Meanwhile the Clippers were absolutely the worst run franchise in sports for their first few decades, but if you stick around long enough in a major market, you're eventually going to have some success.
I think it makes sense to just look at cume W-L% to just give a sense of average badness, so of teams that still exist:
1. Timberwolves .412
2. Clippers .424
3. Hornets .431
4. Grizzlies .436
5. Nets .439
6. Wizards .444
7. Kings .458
8. Pelicans .465
9. Magic .470
10. Raptors .470
So then from this perspective, the Pelicans haven't really been an outlier in badness, they just are an expansion franchise that's mostly struggled.
In terms of their specifics across the Paul/Davis/Zion eras, I think they've mostly just been unlucky. I wouldn't say they've been particularly well-run, but honestly I wouldn't say their failures have been about outlier levels of incompetence.
How come expansion teams in the NBA don't have the success that expansion teams in other leagues do? In the NHL and MLB, expansion teams have won a championship within the first few years of their existence. The Marlins in 1997 and 2003 for one. The Las Vagas team in the NHL has been to the finals twice, winning once in their first 3 seasons. Sombody will have to tell me if this has happened in the NFL. I can't think of an example. But the Carolina Panthers got to the Super Bowl fast. Their first season maybe.
Fantastic question. I can't claim to have had done any exhaustive study on the matter, but I will say:
It would be an entirely different story if there were no lottery in the NBA.
The lottery exists precisely because it's historically easier to identify truly worthy top tier prospects in basketball than in baseball or football, which led to a brutal tanking problem, which then got partially remedied by the lottery.
So then, if the worst team can't be assured of even having the chance to draft a superstar with many years near the bottom of the league, everything becomes a hard slog to even achieve respectability, and when you achieve it in the modern game, solid chance your star player is going to force his way out if there's any sign that you're plateauing below champion level.
Another thing to consider: Randomness of playoffs.
The NFL is single elimination, that makes it easier to get lucky than playoff series.
Baseball is a game with a HUGE amount of randomness involved, which makes it easier to get lucky.
Hockey is also more random than basketball, but it also has the phenomenon of the "hot goalie", which is effectively a kind of randomness (more on that in a second) . While baseball has the "hot pitcher", all the opponent has to do is reliably win the innings he's not pitching in and they win. The hockey goaltender can be there of every minute of every game, and if a team just can't figure out how to get the puck passed him, they're screwed.
--- Okay so on the hot goalie phenomenon, I should say I don't know what the modern analytic view on this is because I don't follow hockey closely, but my understanding is this:
It is a known, recurring phenomenon in the NHL for an underdog to achieve multiple playoff series upsets in a playoff run, and to do so on the back of a goalie just having a major spike in their Save% relative to both prior and future data would predict.
What the specific hockey-causes of this are, I'll refrain from speculating here so as not lower my credibility further, but in terms of making it more likely that a team can make an unexpected run, if it exists, it diminishes predictability.