One_and_Done wrote:You're saying Lebron 'collapsed', but he 'collapsed' to a level that is still above Kobe. His series vs the Celtics is better than Kobe's.
As you know, I’m referring to LeBron’s collapse in the latter half of the series. In the last three games of the series, LeBron averaged 21 points a game on a 34% FG% (36% eFG% and 47% TS%), with 6.3 turnovers a game. He led the Cavs offense to an abysmal -12.04 rORTG in those games, and it was an even worse -12.35 rORTG in LeBron’s minutes. No, that is not better than Kobe against the Celtics, nor is there any comparably bad three-game span of Kobe against the Celtics. LeBron absolutely collapsed in that series. It was actually breathtaking at the time—to the point where people felt the need to try to explain it by speculating about LeBron’s mother’s sex life.
I mean, we could certainly speculate that Lebron was exhausted from carrying luggage all season, and from his defensive lock down of Pierce, but I think he could see the writing on the wall. He wasn't going to win with such a bad support cast. I feel like you're not giving due consideration to how a bad support cast impacts your own performance. You get worn down when you have to carry such a load on O and D.
At any rate, the last 3 games aren't any more important than the first 3. We judge guys off their overall averages, not a cherry picked sample. Overall, he was better than Kobe vs Boston. He was also just better in general.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Djoker wrote:Lebron had a subpar PS and was just plain bad down the stretch of the Boston series. This time his better RS just isn't enough to put him ahead of Kobe who had a strong PS and wins the title. Will probably have Wade over him too considering the far superior performance against the same opponent. Nash and Dwight probably fill the rest of the ballot with conference finals appearances accompanied by strong play.
I understand putting Kobe over LBJ since James was not good in his last 3 games vs Boston but I do not agree to put a player who was a first round exit (Wade) even if he was great in the regular season and vs celtics....We can not ignore LeBron's regular season which was as good as 2009 and the cavs had the best record in the nba even if the roster were not a special one.....He was as good that 2009 in 2010 before the final 3 games vs Boston and the final 3 games vs Boston matter big time and this is why I understand putting Kobe ahead of LBJ but not behind Wade because of 3-5 games
Yea but those final three games against Boston were really important because they decided the Cavs' fate. If Lebron played up to par, there is a very good chance the Cavs win that series. Instead, Lebron was very poor as the Cavs lost as a -480 favorite in that series losing three straight games. That's a heavy blow to one's POY chances for me. I didn't vote for Kareem in 1973 who probably had an even stronger RS from an individual standpoint relative to the competition because he stunk it up in the PS and his team lost as a clear favorite.
Wade lost to the same Boston team but as an underdog and played extraordinarily well. I'm still not 100% decided on putting Wade above Lebron as emphasizing the PS doesn't mean disregarding the RS where Lebron was indeed better but I'm leaning towards it.
One_and_Done wrote:You're saying Lebron 'collapsed', but he 'collapsed' to a level that is still above Kobe. His series vs the Celtics is better than Kobe's.
As you know, I’m referring to LeBron’s collapse in the latter half of the series. In the last three games of the series, LeBron averaged 21 points a game on a 34% FG% (36% eFG% and 47% TS%), with 6.3 turnovers a game. He led the Cavs offense to an abysmal -12.04 rORTG in those games, and it was an even worse -12.35 rORTG in LeBron’s minutes. No, that is not better than Kobe against the Celtics, nor is there any comparably bad three-game span of Kobe against the Celtics. LeBron absolutely collapsed in that series. It was actually breathtaking at the time—to the point where people felt the need to try to explain it by speculating about LeBron’s mother’s sex life.
I mean, we could certainly speculate that Lebron was exhausted from carrying luggage all season, and from his defensive lock down of Pierce, but I think he could see the writing on the wall. He wasn't going to win with such a bad support cast. I feel like you're not giving due consideration to how a bad support cast impacts your own performance. You get worn down when you have to carry such a load on O and D.
At any rate, the last 3 games aren't any more important than the first 3. We judge guys off their overall averages, not a cherry picked sample. Overall, he was better than Kobe vs Boston. He was also just better in general.
You can come up with as many reasons as you want—the speculation at the time on why LeBron was so awful definitely included some wild theories—but the fact is that he was awful in the last three games of the series. It was a breathtaking collapse from LeBron. There’s no whitewashing this, as others have also said.
And, again, you can say LeBron was better overall based on series-wide statistics, but that’s largely just a product of it being a very uneven series for LeBron. He had a couple great games (one of which was an huge blowout) and then spent three straight games in the series being notably worse than any three-game stretch Kobe had. If LeBron had had a more even performance over the course of the series, there’s a good chance the Cavs win the series. Looking at series-wide statistics blurs this fact.
Furthermore, as I already noted to you, unlike with LeBron, the Celtics series isn’t the only series Kobe played against a good team. Kobe averaged 33.0 PPG, 7.3 APG, and 5.8 RPG, on 63% TS% over the course of the second round and conference finals—in series’ against 2 of the 4 highest SRS teams in the league aside from the Lakers & Cavs. LeBron’s series against the Celtics is the only series he had against a good team, and he collapsed in it. Even if you wanted to argue that LeBron wasn’t worse overall against the Celtics than Kobe, the fact that Kobe played great against good teams in the playoffs and LeBron never did is a really big deal.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
I don't believe in punishing guys for their team mates sucking. I had Barkley in my ballot when he didn't make the playoffs, as did many others, because he was a top 5 player.
This stuff about how Kobe played well against other teams strikes me as mostly irrelevant. Lebron can only play the teams in front of him, and the team in front of him was a veteran title team who had coasted in the RS, but then proceeded to come within a hairbreadth of a title. In the playoffs Lebron was better than Kobe, I don't really care that Kobe did it against more opponents because that's just a function of having a better support cast. It's also irrelevant if your worst 3 games are the first or last 3, or if you have a subpar game every second game. What matters is the overall average performance.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
One_and_Done wrote:You're saying Lebron 'collapsed', but he 'collapsed' to a level that is still above Kobe. His series vs the Celtics is better than Kobe's.
As you know, I’m referring to LeBron’s collapse in the latter half of the series. In the last three games of the series, LeBron averaged 21 points a game on a 34% FG% (36% eFG% and 47% TS%), with 6.3 turnovers a game. He led the Cavs offense to an abysmal -12.04 rORTG in those games, and it was an even worse -12.35 rORTG in LeBron’s minutes. No, that is not better than Kobe against the Celtics, nor is there any comparably bad three-game span of Kobe against the Celtics. LeBron absolutely collapsed in that series. It was actually breathtaking at the time—to the point where people felt the need to try to explain it by speculating about LeBron’s mother’s sex life.
LeBron had issues with his elbow that seemed to require resting it multiple days - he missed the end of the RS because of that and then recovered enough for the first round to manage one great game with only 1 day rest (game 2), from then on he averaged an average game score of 34.9 with >1 day rest and only 16.4 with only 1 day rest. For reference LeBron's worst game against Boston in the RS had a game score of 26.7 LeBron was talking about his elbow since he missed the end of the regular season because of it and even trying things like left-handed FTs in the series, so if someone found his bad play in those games "breathtaking" they have some mental problems.
(Btw, maybe Cavs fans shouldn't have booed LeBron when he was playing injured if they wanted him to sign on for another 7 years in the cold armpit of America with a badly run franchise that cost him an easy 4-5 rings with the Pistons, a douche owner and mostly washed starters in their mid-to-late 30s while the rest of the top10 GOATs _COMBINED_ spent less time in such a trash situation.)
If anything is breathtaking it's that an injured Lebron with Jamario "Who?" Moon as his best-performing postseason team mate still managed to be statistically better on average than Kobe on a stacked team led by Gasol in win shares (average game score 18.7 vs Boston - barely better than injured Lebron in his bad games without sufficient rest and probably worse if we include defense):
Against Boston Lebron also held Paul Pierce to an average game score of of 7.3. Excluding the completely out of reach game 5 he held Pierce to a game score of 5.2, either way probably the worst series in PPs prime. That's versus 14.8 against other teams. So all-star Pierce was worse than injured Lebron was in minimum-rest-games and against Lebron he was 2-3x worse than that.
I'd say Kobe vs Gasol is more debatable in 2010 than Kobe vs Lebron. Sure you can ding Lebron for having health issues for a few games at the worst time, but how does it help Kobe's case that after being far inferior in the regular season (Lebron is statistically better even now in his 40s) he was still worse than severely handicapped lebron in the postseason? I mean Kobe was also not close to healthy at that point, but it is what it is.
I think this is a good (though not great) analogy to 1968 Wilt situation. James is clearly the best player in the RS that disappointed due to injury and off-court issues. I remember Wilt winning 1968 POY, but it was competitive with Russell (who had relatively unimpressive RS).
For people who voted Russell over Wilt, but still pick James here - what am I missing?
LeBron suffered an elbow injury at the end of the year which made him take many games off until Chicago. He got enough rest from those weeks off to where he played at an all time level until game 5. Game 5, LeBron’s injury came back, he had an all time low LeBron game. He literally shot left handed this game because it was so bad. A Twitter account was made about his injury even. https://streamable.com/xqig6l https://streamable.com/khh2lz https://streamable.com/j5e8vj We also see how bad LeBron plays when he’s not given enough rest, more rest = healthier LeBron = closer to full power LeBron https://streamable.com/fdzv3w https://streamable.com/85bsii A +13 net rating team when LeBron plays with rest for the elbow, vs -13 with one night of rest. The only outlier you may look at is Chicago game 2, where, LeBron plays great with one night of rest, however, he just came off 7 nights in a row, interrupted by one game, so it is reasonable how he played, considering all the rest he had which can avoid the re injury. LeBron vs Chicago clears any series Kobe has, and LeBron vs Boston was still better than Kobe vs Boston in 2010. It’s simply Kobe having that one series more over LeBron, simply due to LeBron being left clearly hindered. Regular season absolutely wipes Kobe, this is in contention for the GOAT offensive regular season. Kobe’s isn’t even in the top 30. Chicago series is also great - elite personnel for LeBron to face, and LeBron performed on goat level status, meanwhile 2010 Suns were mid defensively, and was way worse than LeBron.
Lebronnygoat wrote:LeBron suffered an elbow injury at the end of the year which made him take many games off until Chicago. He got enough rest from those weeks off to where he played at an all time level until game 5. Game 5, LeBron’s injury came back, he had an all time low LeBron game. He literally shot left handed for crunch time free throws this game because it was so bad. A Twitter account was made about his injury even. https://streamable.com/xqig6l https://streamable.com/khh2lz https://streamable.com/j5e8vj We also see how bad LeBron plays when he’s not given enough rest, more rest = healthier LeBron = closer to full power LeBron https://streamable.com/fdzv3w https://streamable.com/85bsii A +13 net rating team when LeBron plays with rest for the elbow, vs -13 with one night of rest. The only outlier you may look at is Chicago game 2, where, LeBron plays great with one night of rest, however, he just came off 7 nights in a row, interrupted by one game, so it is reasonable how he played, considering all the rest he had which can avoid the re injury. LeBron vs Chicago clears any series Kobe has, and LeBron vs Boston was still better than Kobe vs Boston in 2010. It’s simply Kobe having that one series more over LeBron, simply due to LeBron being left clearly hindered. Regular season absolutely wipes Kobe, this is in contention for the GOAT offensive regular season. Kobe’s isn’t even in the top 30. Chicago series is also great - elite personnel for LeBron to face, and LeBron performed on goat level status, meanwhile 2010 Suns were mid defensively, and was way worse than LeBron.
70sFan wrote:I think this is a good (though not great) analogy to 1968 Wilt situation. James is clearly the best player in the RS that disappointed due to injury and off-court issues. I remember Wilt winning 1968 POY, but it was competitive with Russell (who had relatively unimpressive RS).
For people who voted Russell over Wilt, but still pick James here - what am I missing?
Wilt built a bigger gap over Russell in the RS than Lebron did over Kobe IMO. Russell was getting older and not in his prime anymore and also had the help of Havlicek who had a tremendous PS. I don't know if that's the reasoning for everybody but for me that's kind of the gist of it.
I think talk about LeBron playing injured in the 2010 playoffs is kind of beside the point here. That’d be something to consider in a discussion about whether we should draw broader implications about LeBron from what happened in these playoffs. But in terms of POY this year, it has to be based on how LeBron played in reality. And what happened in reality is that LeBron spectacularly collapsed in the second half of the series against the Celtics. Would that have happened if he’d not hurt his elbow? Maybe not! But POY isn’t about a hypothetical. And I’ll note that a lot of the differences in virtually any player’s performances year to year is actually a result of them playing through different injuries—it’s an inherent aspect of the game that we are often not directly aware of and that is often one of the main determinants of the ebbs and flows of players’ POY cases year-to-year. Trying to adjust for it is basing one’s vote on a hypothetical instead of a reality, and also is just unfair to anyone who played injured but didn’t publicize it (or to anyone who played injured that you didn’t credit the same excuse for). LeBron can only be judged for POY purposes on what he did in reality in this year. It doesn’t really matter if he was awful in the latter half of the Celtics series because of his elbow, because he was mentally checked out of Cleveland, because of Delonte West and his mother, or some other reason. He was awful in those games. And that’s a really important part of the picture here.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
One_and_Done wrote:I don't believe in punishing guys for their team mates sucking. I had Barkley in my ballot when he didn't make the playoffs, as did many others, because he was a top 5 player.
This stuff about how Kobe played well against other teams strikes me as mostly irrelevant. Lebron can only play the teams in front of him, and the team in front of him was a veteran title team who had coasted in the RS, but then proceeded to come within a hairbreadth of a title. In the playoffs Lebron was better than Kobe, I don't really care that Kobe did it against more opponents because that's just a function of having a better support cast. It's also irrelevant if your worst 3 games are the first or last 3, or if you have a subpar game every second game. What matters is the overall average performance.
LeBron probably would’ve had more chance to shine against other good teams if he’d not been awful the last three games against the Celtics. And, in any event, not everything is under an individual player’s control. Even if Kobe made it further *solely* due to having better teammates, this still meant he had great series performances against good teams in the playoffs, while LeBron did not. That’s a very important fact for POY purposes. Kobe has very important aspects of his POY resume this year that LeBron simply does not have, regardless of whether there’s an excuse for why he doesn’t have it.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Lebronnygoat wrote:LeBron suffered an elbow injury at the end of the year which made him take many games off until Chicago. He got enough rest from those weeks off to where he played at an all time level until game 5. Game 5, LeBron’s injury came back, he had an all time low LeBron game. He literally shot left handed this game because it was so bad. A Twitter account was made about his injury even. https://streamable.com/xqig6l https://streamable.com/khh2lz https://streamable.com/j5e8vj We also see how bad LeBron plays when he’s not given enough rest, more rest = healthier LeBron = closer to full power LeBron https://streamable.com/fdzv3w https://streamable.com/85bsii A +13 net rating team when LeBron plays with rest for the elbow, vs -13 with one night of rest. The only outlier you may look at is Chicago game 2, where, LeBron plays great with one night of rest, however, he just came off 7 nights in a row, interrupted by one game, so it is reasonable how he played, considering all the rest he had which can avoid the re injury. LeBron vs Chicago clears any series Kobe has, and LeBron vs Boston was still better than Kobe vs Boston in 2010. It’s simply Kobe having that one series more over LeBron, simply due to LeBron being left clearly hindered. Regular season absolutely wipes Kobe, this is in contention for the GOAT offensive regular season. Kobe’s isn’t even in the top 30. Chicago series is also great - elite personnel for LeBron to face, and LeBron performed on goat level status, meanwhile 2010 Suns were mid defensively, and was way worse than LeBron.
For a few here, injuries are taken under consideration when it involves players other than LeBron, e.g., Curry and 2016, but for LeBron, he was “AWFUL,” (stated numerous times) “ABYSMAL,” had a “BREATHTAKING COLLAPSE,” etc.
LeBron didn’t have the luxury of not playing to his standards and having teammates defend/rebound make up for poor play.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.
lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
lessthanjake wrote:There have been plenty of years where a superstar leading his team to the title had an even stronger POY case than 2010 Kobe, but, given the last three games against the Celtics, I don’t really see how LeBron could get the nod over Kobe for POY purposes
After authoring the best perimeter season ever, Lebron was, for the vast majority of the season, doing it again:
Spoiler:
I know I haven't really participated in any discussion prior to this, but I want to chime in here. Why indeed, is 2010 Lebron not being included? If this is a comparison of peaks and its been clear that we're trying to go beyond something as simple as just a "most successful season" list, then why exclude what might just be Lebron at his absolute best (IMO his strongest regular season), even if the playoffs were underwhelming. Allow me to present the case.
The Cavaliers finish with a 61-21 record and a 6.19 SRS, both down from the previous year, though it should be noted that the roster was riddled with absences and injuries throughout the season. Williams plays 69 games as opposed to 81, West misses 20 games in the early season, Shaq misses 29 games and posed further issues by never fitting into Cleveland's offensive system very well (of the 10 best offensive lineups Cleveland ran that year with >40MP, Shaq was in one of them), Gibson played 19 fewer games than the year before, Ilgauskas/Jamison trade caused chemistry issues with Jamison struggling particularly to fit in on the defensive end (and randomly dropping off to a 50% FT shooter after shooting 70% in WAS an shooting 73% for his career), Kuester leaving as the head offensive coach, etc.
Despite all this, they managed to go 60-16 in the 76 games that James played (he missed 4 games at the end, which Brown at the time attributed to lingering issues but later claimed was due to his elbow, both of which, could be given as an explanation for his relatively inconsistent performance in the last month or so of the regular season), and using ElGee's In/Out method, were roughly a 6.89 SRS team in the 76 games James played in, putting up an ORTG of 111.8 (#3 in the league, +4.2). On the other hand, they went 1-5 in the 6 games they played without him (close win against the Spurs at home, 1 close loss against ORL at the dead end of the season, the other 4 were very winnable games, and its not unreasonable to suggest that they would have won 65-66 again had Lebron played, which would be a slight overperformance based on their +7 SRS w/Lebron), put up a -2.95 SRS in those 6 games and an ORTG of 103.6 (-4.0).
Taking a further look at just the offense, with James ON Court:
2009: 116.4 (+8.1, #1) 2010: 116.6 (+9.0, #1)
So despite the drop overall, Cleveland's offense with James on the floor is even more impressive than the previous year, which his ORAPM seems to support (+7.1). Let's take it further and compare the performance against top 5 defensive teams (Orlando, Boston, Houston, San Antonio in 2009 and Charlotte, Milwaukee, Orlando, Los Angeles, and Boston in 2010) excluding any games James didn't play in (and one game against Boston in which Garnett did not play).
2009: 106.5 (-1.8 LA, #24) against an expected DRTG of 102.9 (+3.6) 2010: 108.8 (+1.2 LA, #11) against an expected DRTG of 103.3 (+5.5)
So what I see here is a Lebron who's running an offense even better than the year before, despite having less/weaker talent to work with. The roster was frequently changing around him, he was asked to play far more roles in various lineups and he managed to adjust and perform better than he had before.
The most evident example of this, of course, was the extended stretch at the end of January 2010 and through February 2010 where Williams missed significant time and Lebron was thrust into the De-Facto PG position. Looking purely from a box-score perspective, over this 11 game stretch James put up 31.0/6.6/10.5 on 61.8% TS with 3.8 TO. Taking it further, Cleveland posted a 115.5 ORTG (+7.9 LA) over this period, which would be tied with Nash's Suns for the best offense in the league. So not only is he able to take on the larger scoring load and creation load due to the loss of the team's secondary ball handler and playmaker, he's able to do so while effectively IMPROVING the offense and while IMPROVING his own efficiency.
Getting into the box-score, James' individual numbers look better: 30/7/9 on 60% TS (+7.1 ORAPM, +2.6 DRAPM, +9.8 overall) in 2010 vs 28/8/7 on 59% TS (+6.6 ORAPM, +2.8 DRAPM, +9.3 overall) in 2009. Prior to the mid-late March injury (whatever caused him to miss the 4 games at the end of the season), even his PER was higher than the 31.1 he finished with, somewhere above 32.0 which would be ahead of his 31.7 from 2009. I don't like putting much stock into "clutch" numbers, but I know colts has been stressing those in his posts for 2009, so again 66/16/8 on 63% TS (+37 overall) in 2010 vs 56/14/13 on 69% TS (+45 overall) in 2009.
So with all that in mind, I just don't see how Lebron's 2009 regular season at least could be considered superior to his 2010 regular season. While the 09 Cavs certainly maintained a consistently higher level of play, it seems that the 2010 Cavs were dropping off to a much lower level when James was off the floor, and thus even a greater level of lift from him would not propel their numbers to match 2009 overall (thought they were arguably even better with him on the court).
60+ wins, 11-0 without Mo-williams much stronger arch-angel counterpart at the point, better shooting than the "outlier" from 2009, a 32-game stretch of point-guarding where the team goes from +6 to +8, and the best impact signal ('an indicator of the whole making teams win thing") in nba history. Lebron was once again, producing more offense than anyone that's come before him and doing so hypereffeciently while also anchoring a -3.5 defense with his best defensive teammate leaving as the team's best perimiter defender, floor-general, and secondary or tertiary paint protector.
Lebronnygoat wrote:LeBron suffered an elbow injury at the end of the year which made him take many games off until Chicago. He got enough rest from those weeks off to where he played at an all time level until game 5. Game 5, LeBron’s injury came back, he had an all time low LeBron game. He literally shot left handed this game because it was so bad. A Twitter account was made about his injury even. https://streamable.com/xqig6l https://streamable.com/khh2lz https://streamable.com/j5e8vj We also see how bad LeBron plays when he’s not given enough rest, more rest = healthier LeBron = closer to full power LeBron https://streamable.com/fdzv3w https://streamable.com/85bsii A +13 net rating team when LeBron plays with rest for the elbow, vs -13 with one night of rest. The only outlier you may look at is Chicago game 2, where, LeBron plays great with one night of rest, however, he just came off 7 nights in a row, interrupted by one game, so it is reasonable how he played, considering all the rest he had which can avoid the re injury. LeBron vs Chicago clears any series Kobe has, and LeBron vs Boston was still better than Kobe vs Boston in 2010. It’s simply Kobe having that one series more over LeBron, simply due to LeBron being left clearly hindered. Regular season absolutely wipes Kobe, this is in contention for the GOAT offensive regular season. Kobe’s isn’t even in the top 30. Chicago series is also great - elite personnel for LeBron to face, and LeBron performed on goat level status, meanwhile 2010 Suns were mid defensively, and was way worse than LeBron.
Allowing for "analysis" like this:
Tim_Hardawayy wrote:EDIT: Also this is not Heat bias, I'm open to the idea that some of LeBron's post Miami Cleveland seasons were his best too. I've always just felt 09 Cleveland LeBron gets overrated on pure athleticism, which Boston proved handily in 2010 (and 08 even though people will argue LeBron had no chance that season, still got completely shut down and carried by his defense) can be taken away, and he didn't even have to face Boston in 09.
Setting aside the comedy of Lebron being "carried" by a defense that collapsed whenever he wasn't playing(though i recognize in the good old days of 2010 we cared more about steals/blocks and media votes than actually helping your team), we also have the implication the best perimeter regular season and postseason in history was a fluke and doesn't count and the Celtics limiting him with a bad shooting elbow in 2010, while getting outscored by him and winless-without-him support in 2008, "handily proved" his only calling card was "athleticism". Which is why his signature series came against...Dwight Howard.
There's just one little problem with how this pertains to "Kobe is the POY": Kobe was worse against the Celtics. And not a teensy bit worse. A lotta bit worse. Let's sum up all the ways he was worse.
-> a point of extra scoring for 4 points worse efficiency facing significantly less defensive attention -> creates a fraction as much as lebron does in exchange for a marginally less turnovers -> offered far less paint-protection (duh) -> far worse man defense:
Spoiler:
Elgee wrote: Opp FG% Shots against/100 James .276 7.2 Wade .279 5.5 Howard .276 13.7 Durant .302 10.2 Bryant .376 5.9 Gasol .406 14.0 Nash .433 6.9 Williams .439 6.9 Ginobili .439 5.0 Nowitzki .451
Defensive Errors/100 Nash 0.64 Durant 0.81 Howard 0.85 Ginobili 1.08 James 1.13 Nowitzki 1.18 Wade 1.28 Gasol 1.34 Williams 1.42 Bryant 2.30
FTs against/100 Nash 1.67 Durant 1.85 James 2.03 Wade 2.31 Nowitzki 2.36 Ginobili 2.71 Bryant 2.77 Williams 3.11 Gasol 3.27 Howard 4.51
-> Far less contributed towards the winning and protection of possessions (rebounding value) -> More fouls drawn
This creates a bit of a predicament. We want to say Lebron isn't obviously the POY, but we don't want to admit that is entirely based of team-success. Hmmm, what to do?
Option A: Victim Blaming
jjgp111292 wrote:It was a genuinely awful performance and there's a reason it generated conspiracy theories. If he's even decent after Game 4, they win that series.
Yes, self-proclaimed Lebron fan, the reason gross conspiracy theories were generated about Lebron was because of Lebron.
Option B: Projecting
jjgp111292 wrote:Yeah, I feel like people here are trying to sweep just how bad he was in those last 3 games under the rug..
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:Having said that, we must stop whitewashing what happened in that Boston series.
Yes, looking at series-wide or playoff-wide, or season-wide performance is "sweeping anything under the rug", and "whitewashing". Not deliberately basing your whole playoff analysis of a fraction of the playoffs to make it seem like Kobe didn't get comically outplayed, in basically every facet of the game, by an injured Lebron.
Option C: Disappointment per 75
The idea that the Cavs never had a shot at winning that series is just nonsense. It was not inevitable, and the Celtics were not some invincible team. By the numbers, they were not close to as good as they were in 2008. Garnett was not the same player, at least offensively, as he was in 2008 before his 2009 injury
...
As for the idea that “[t]he Cavs weren’t supposed to win that series,” the Cavaliers were -480 betting favorites in that series. They actually *were* supposed to win that series.
Because "player of the year" is actually "least disappointing of the year", a near-cousin of "who wasn't good enough in the regular-season to generate the same level of expectation as the much better player". And therefore when inferior players play worse we can hide behind circular nonsense to frame that as achievement! Speaking of
Option D: Make-Believe:
lessthanjake wrote:his performance in that first round loss to the Celtics was actually great—much better than LeBron’s.
Djoker wrote:Wade lost to the same Boston team but as an underdog and played extraordinarily well. I'm still not 100% decided on putting Wade above Lebron as emphasizing the PS doesn't mean disregarding the RS where Lebron was indeed better but I'm leaning towards it.
Could you argue 7 points and 10-poitns of true shooting overcome Lebron perfomring better at virtually every other aspect of the game? Sure. But that's theory. Here's what isn't. The Miami heat were...nowhere near as good in the regular season. They also...were not nearly as good in the playoffs. And they were...not as good vs the Celtics.
And while one can excuse that with hypothetically terrible support, it's a hollow case against someone whose help was demonstrably awful. If Lebron, completely outclassing Kobe Bryant vs a common opponent in basically every facet is irrelevant because he accomplished less, how is Wade theoretically playing better getting him ahead of Lebron when Lebron
-> accomplished more in the regular season -> accomplished more in the playoffs -> accomplished more vs Boston
This is why Lebron will win this POY dominantly while a couple dissidents throw votes with the lone motivations being "team success' (kobe) or "scoring" (wade) while also throwing in red-herrings and/or emotive appeals to create the guise of "depth" and "nuance" that was never really there. As one does when propping up shooting guards.
2. Dwayne Wade
Actually played well vs Boston. could be argued as the 2nd best regular-season player. No real critique besides "not Lebron James". Pretty disappointed how he ended up looking in those man defense metrics.
3. Kobe Bryant
Something to be said about winning a title. He's one of the few title-leads we've come across you could legitimately argue for leaving off but I won't. It's said he helped come up with the Lakers defensive game plan vs Boston so credit for that I guess. Played by far the worst of the top 3 candidates vs Boston despite playing a more injured iteration of that team. The 2010 version of this thread will only look less serious with time.
4. Dwight Howard
Leads a top two regular-season team (1st by SRS, 2nd by Record) as the league's premier defender before a competitive 6-game loss to a near-champion. Sweeping the first two rounds also doesn't hurt.
5. Steve Nash
Leading the league's best offense, decimating a solid Spurs.
This was a mini 2011 for LeBron; there’s no doubt about that. I still think he was clearly the best player in basketball, but I totally understand the idea that the way your season ends should have the most weight. I think people understating how bad it actually was weren’t really watching in the moment.
Lebronnygoat wrote:LeBron suffered an elbow injury at the end of the year which made him take many games off until Chicago. He got enough rest from those weeks off to where he played at an all time level until game 5. Game 5, LeBron’s injury came back, he had an all time low LeBron game. He literally shot left handed this game because it was so bad. A Twitter account was made about his injury even. https://streamable.com/xqig6l https://streamable.com/khh2lz https://streamable.com/j5e8vj We also see how bad LeBron plays when he’s not given enough rest, more rest = healthier LeBron = closer to full power LeBron https://streamable.com/fdzv3w https://streamable.com/85bsii A +13 net rating team when LeBron plays with rest for the elbow, vs -13 with one night of rest. The only outlier you may look at is Chicago game 2, where, LeBron plays great with one night of rest, however, he just came off 7 nights in a row, interrupted by one game, so it is reasonable how he played, considering all the rest he had which can avoid the re injury. LeBron vs Chicago clears any series Kobe has, and LeBron vs Boston was still better than Kobe vs Boston in 2010. It’s simply Kobe having that one series more over LeBron, simply due to LeBron being left clearly hindered. Regular season absolutely wipes Kobe, this is in contention for the GOAT offensive regular season. Kobe’s isn’t even in the top 30. Chicago series is also great - elite personnel for LeBron to face, and LeBron performed on goat level status, meanwhile 2010 Suns were mid defensively, and was way worse than LeBron.
For a few here, injuries are taken under consideration when it involves players other than LeBron, e.g., Curry and 2016, but for LeBron, he was “AWFUL,” (stated numerous times) “ABYSMAL,” had a “BREATHTAKING COLLAPSE,” etc.
LeBron didn’t have the luxury of not playing to his standards and having teammates defend/rebound make up for poor play.
Not me.
I blame Curry for his 2016 underperformance to such an extent that to me he has no case for POY in 2016. And that's despite being far ahead after the RS and in fact far ahead going into the Finals as well. But him crapping the bed in the final series (and yes you can say AWFUL, ABYSMAL etc. all those apply) derails his POY case completely. Lebron 2010 likewise. POY favorite after the Bulls series but he loses that status for how he played in the Boston series, plain and simple. Like how Kareem also lost it in 1973.
And injury is just a reason for the underperformance. But the bottom line is the underperformance itself. That's what we judge a season on. The reason being his elbow and not something else makes zero difference.
Lebronnygoat wrote:LeBron suffered an elbow injury at the end of the year which made him take many games off until Chicago. He got enough rest from those weeks off to where he played at an all time level until game 5. Game 5, LeBron’s injury came back, he had an all time low LeBron game. He literally shot left handed this game because it was so bad. A Twitter account was made about his injury even. https://streamable.com/xqig6l https://streamable.com/khh2lz https://streamable.com/j5e8vj We also see how bad LeBron plays when he’s not given enough rest, more rest = healthier LeBron = closer to full power LeBron https://streamable.com/fdzv3w https://streamable.com/85bsii A +13 net rating team when LeBron plays with rest for the elbow, vs -13 with one night of rest. The only outlier you may look at is Chicago game 2, where, LeBron plays great with one night of rest, however, he just came off 7 nights in a row, interrupted by one game, so it is reasonable how he played, considering all the rest he had which can avoid the re injury. LeBron vs Chicago clears any series Kobe has, and LeBron vs Boston was still better than Kobe vs Boston in 2010. It’s simply Kobe having that one series more over LeBron, simply due to LeBron being left clearly hindered. Regular season absolutely wipes Kobe, this is in contention for the GOAT offensive regular season. Kobe’s isn’t even in the top 30. Chicago series is also great - elite personnel for LeBron to face, and LeBron performed on goat level status, meanwhile 2010 Suns were mid defensively, and was way worse than LeBron.
For a few here, injuries are taken under consideration when it involves players other than LeBron, e.g., Curry and 2016, but for LeBron, he was “AWFUL,” (stated numerous times) “ABYSMAL,” had a “BREATHTAKING COLLAPSE,” etc.
LeBron didn’t have the luxury of not playing to his standards and having teammates defend/rebound make up for poor play.
Not me.
I blame Curry for his 2016 underperformance to such an extent that to me he has no case for POY in 2016. And that's despite being far ahead after the RS and in fact far ahead going into the Finals as well. But him crapping the bed in the final series (and yes you can say AWFUL, ABYSMAL etc. all those apply) derails his POY case completely. Lebron 2010 likewise. POY favorite after the Bulls series but he loses that status for how he played in the Boston series, plain and simple. Like how Kareem also lost it in 1973.
And injury is just a reason for the underperformance. But the bottom line is the underperformance itself. That's what we judge a season on. The reason being his elbow and not something else makes zero difference.
"crapping the bed" is a fascinating description for "played way better than Kobe Bryant"
homecourtloss wrote: For a few here, injuries are taken under consideration when it involves players other than LeBron, e.g., Curry and 2016, but for LeBron, he was “AWFUL,” (stated numerous times) “ABYSMAL,” had a “BREATHTAKING COLLAPSE,” etc.
LeBron didn’t have the luxury of not playing to his standards and having teammates defend/rebound make up for poor play.
Not me.
I blame Curry for his 2016 underperformance to such an extent that to me he has no case for POY in 2016. And that's despite being far ahead after the RS and in fact far ahead going into the Finals as well. But him crapping the bed in the final series (and yes you can say AWFUL, ABYSMAL etc. all those apply) derails his POY case completely. Lebron 2010 likewise. POY favorite after the Bulls series but he loses that status for how he played in the Boston series, plain and simple. Like how Kareem also lost it in 1973.
And injury is just a reason for the underperformance. But the bottom line is the underperformance itself. That's what we judge a season on. The reason being his elbow and not something else makes zero difference.
"crapping the bed" is a fascinating description for "played way better than Kobe Bryant"
He didn't play better against Boston. His two great outings in Game 1 and Game 3 mask how bad he was in the other four games. Kobe was more consistent game to game.
LeBron played better than Kobe, Kobe simply won. If LeBron’s play was downgraded to Kobe’s level, and Kobe’s play was updated to LeBron’s level, but LeBron won, and Kobe lost, he’d be better than Kobe? Team success isn’t isolated…
I blame Curry for his 2016 underperformance to such an extent that to me he has no case for POY in 2016. And that's despite being far ahead after the RS and in fact far ahead going into the Finals as well. But him crapping the bed in the final series (and yes you can say AWFUL, ABYSMAL etc. all those apply) derails his POY case completely. Lebron 2010 likewise. POY favorite after the Bulls series but he loses that status for how he played in the Boston series, plain and simple. Like how Kareem also lost it in 1973.
And injury is just a reason for the underperformance. But the bottom line is the underperformance itself. That's what we judge a season on. The reason being his elbow and not something else makes zero difference.
"crapping the bed" is a fascinating description for "played way better than Kobe Bryant"
He didn't play better against Boston. His two great outings in Game 1 and Game 3 mask how bad he was in the other four games. Kobe was more consistent game to game.
Game 6 was better. Their best 2 games, LeBron wipes. LeBron takes elimination game and 2 best games, but there’s somehow this overwhelming gap? This series, nitpicked a few games, just overwrites the best playoff series vs best playoff series gap? The regular season massive gap? Please.
70sFan wrote:I remember Wilt winning 1968 POY, but it was competitive with Russell (who had relatively unimpressive RS).
For people who voted Russell over Wilt, but still pick James here - what am I missing?
I see the analogy in the sense of “would have been the unanimous Player of the Year until a 0-3 slide against the Celtics but still won the majority anyway,” but in the context of the season overall, I do not think it is analogous to the extent it needs to be to serve as a meaningful counter-point.
First, I think the gap between Wilt and Russell in the regular season was smaller than it was with Lebron and Kobe, with Wilt being worse than Lebron and Russell being better than Kobe. Kobe and Russell are maybe the two most variably assessed top players here on RealGM, with each seeing support as both a top five peak/prime and more of a fringe top fifteen peak/prime, but frankly that needs to lean harder on the postseason, because 1969/70 make it much easier to argue against Wilt’s regular season impact than against Russell’s, and there is no remote equivalent to even attempt to argue Kobe over Lebron in the regular season (with more people entertaining him outside the top five than saying he had a case for second). Relatedly, Lebron had a cavernous disadvantage at supporting cast yet still had the more successful regular season, whereas Wilt had the better regular season cast than Russell did (and even if they were the same, eight wins is a smaller gap than I think you would see from regular season Lebron versus regular season Kobe).
In the postseason, Wilt loses head-to-head, which is not an inherent mark against a player so long as their opponent looks worse… but for most of us that was not our impression (consider also 1985), and if Lebron has his three-game slide directly against Kobe while relinquishing a 3-1 lead in the process, that would be a harsher mark against him than it was against a Celtics team which played like more of a true ensemble effort (Garnett was a near unanimous top three in 2008 but looks like he will only manage a couple of scattered fifth place votes this year). Russell also significantly added to his case by upsetting the 1968 West/Baylor Lakers, which with West played at a higher level than Wilt’s 76ers did. (This does not apply to me, but as an added note, PC Board consensus seems to have this West above any version of Kobe.) By comparison, Kobe does not have anywhere near the same quality of feats on his postseason résumé this year, and with a more substantial regular season impact gap, I do not see any particular application of that analogy here, no.
On a regular season scale, this year seems more analogous to the already mentioned 1973, which for the group (both this time and in 2010) is a positive signal for Lebron’s candidacy… but speaking as someone who voted against Kareem that year, I think Kareem’s postseason was several orders of magnitude worse because of how truly irrelevant it made him look (arguably outperformed by his own teammate and lost to a team which lost uncompetitively to a team which lost uncompetitively in the Finals). And then for postseason comparisons, my postseason commentary can be similarly extended to attempted analogies with 1995 or the like: reasonably good run from Kobe, sure, but nothing especially notable on its own.
I would take a lot of title winners, including Kobe last year, as Player of the Year over Lebron this year explicitly because of those brutal last three games… but what it comes down to for me is that 2010 Kobe did not quite offer the holistic season-long achievement which I would want to see. Understand how others could reasonably differ, and definitely feel it is close — if he won Finals MVP performing like Wade did against the Celtics, then congratulations to Kobe — but my lasting impressions of this season are defined more by Lebron, three-game fade and all, than by Kobe.
(That all said, strong odds I abstain from voting on RPoY this year anyway, because I cannot confidently say I would have felt the same in 2010, and that is the standard I personally intend to use for these final five years where our point of comparison is contemporaneous voting rather than hindsight voting.)
