Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 9

[Tripod]

I maintain that he is a 20-8-6.5 guy with great defence when not tasked to guard guards and yet he:

Has no 3
Has no go to...now mid range is changing that
Has no 1st step
Has no one who creates easy baskets for him
Has 2 PG's who are non shooters..IQ is needed
Has no #1 scorer to draw gravity making it easier for others to score including Barnes

If just a FEW of these things improve, his numbers improve. He still won't be a #1 scorer because his mindset is pass 1st plus he isn't a natural shooter. But he certainly can be the 2nd best player on a great team.

[TorontoBarneys]

I maintain that he is a 20-8-6.5 guy with great defence when not tasked to guard guards and yet he:

Has no 3
Has no go to...now mid range is changing that
Has no 1st step
Has no one who creates easy baskets for him
Has 2 PG's who are non shooters..IQ is needed
Has no #1 scorer to draw gravity making it easier for others to score including Barnes

If just a FEW of these things improve, his numbers improve. He still won't be a #1 scorer because his mindset is pass 1st plus he isn't a natural shooter. But he certainly can be the 2nd best player on a great team.

He can top out as a 25-8-8 guy with 3 stocks which is incredible but we need to get lucky with a few factors happening first.

[Tripod]

I maintain that he is a 20-8-6.5 guy with great defence when not tasked to guard guards and yet he:

Has no 3
Has no go to...now mid range is changing that
Has no 1st step
Has no one who creates easy baskets for him
Has 2 PG's who are non shooters..IQ is needed
Has no #1 scorer to draw gravity making it easier for others to score including Barnes

If just a FEW of these things improve, his numbers improve. He still won't be a #1 scorer because his mindset is pass 1st plus he isn't a natural shooter. But he certainly can be the 2nd best player on a great team.

He can top out as a 25-8-8 guy with 3 stocks which is incredible but we need to get lucky with a few factors happening first.

I was thinking 24pts...but yes.

[tsherkin]

I maintain that he is a 20-8-6.5 guy with great defence when not tasked to guard guards and yet he:

Has no 3
Has no go to...now mid range is changing that
Has no 1st step
Has no one who creates easy baskets for him
Has 2 PG's who are non shooters..IQ is needed
Has no #1 scorer to draw gravity making it easier for others to score including Barnes

If just a FEW of these things improve, his numbers improve. He still won't be a #1 scorer because his mindset is pass 1st plus he isn't a natural shooter. But he certainly can be the 2nd best player on a great team.

He can top out as a 25-8-8 guy with 3 stocks which is incredible but we need to get lucky with a few factors happening first.

I was thinking 24pts...but yes.

We should probably set our volume bar lower for him, as it will be easier for him to at least potentially approach efficient basketball if he isn't required to shoulder a higher-volume scoring load. Next year will be the half-decade mark for him and he hasn't hit league average once. He is working on his 3rd season in 4 at or under 30% from 3 and he's actually worsened at getting to the rim. He's doing a lot of things well on the court, and watching his middle game and his playmaking develop is nice, but it's pretty clear so far that he isn't the guy you want shooting a ton at this stage of his career. As we eventually progress to being a better team, it might be wiser to shoot for that 18-20 ppg range and see if he can't be decently efficient and maybe a little LESS involved on-ball.

[TorontoBarneys]

He can top out as a 25-8-8 guy with 3 stocks which is incredible but we need to get lucky with a few factors happening first.

I was thinking 24pts...but yes.

We should probably set our volume bar lower for him, as it will be easier for him to at least potentially approach efficient basketball if he isn't required to shoulder a higher-volume scoring load. Next year will be the half-decade mark for him and he hasn't hit league average once. He is working on his 3rd season in 4 at or under 30% from 3 and he's actually worsened at getting to the rim. He's doing a lot of things well on the court, and watching his middle game and his playmaking develop is nice, but it's pretty clear so far that he isn't the guy you want shooting a ton at this stage of his career. As we eventually progress to being a better team, it might be wiser to shoot for that 18-20 ppg range and see if he can't be decently efficient and maybe a little LESS involved on-ball.

Yeah it seems like he will be a guy who hovers around the 18-22 ppg range for the next few years until we get a true volume scorer who draws the defenses in, and he can play off that. Then we'll see that immediate jump to 22+ ppg probably.

[tsherkin]

Yeah it seems like he will be a guy who hovers around the 18-22 ppg range for the next few years until we get a true volume scorer who draws the defenses in, and he can play off that. Then we'll see that immediate jump to 22+ ppg probably.

I don't know that we will. It's probably better to continue constraining his offense unless we see some miraculous and unlikely change in his skill set. But the more we get him off ball, the more we reduce his volume, the more likely he is to present us with competent efficiency, so we should be chasing that... later, of course, once the team's competitive power starts trending upward, of course. While we're tanking, whatever, let him develop, see what happens, naturally.

[Tripod]

I was thinking 24pts...but yes.

We should probably set our volume bar lower for him, as it will be easier for him to at least potentially approach efficient basketball if he isn't required to shoulder a higher-volume scoring load. Next year will be the half-decade mark for him and he hasn't hit league average once. He is working on his 3rd season in 4 at or under 30% from 3 and he's actually worsened at getting to the rim. He's doing a lot of things well on the court, and watching his middle game and his playmaking develop is nice, but it's pretty clear so far that he isn't the guy you want shooting a ton at this stage of his career. As we eventually progress to being a better team, it might be wiser to shoot for that 18-20 ppg range and see if he can't be decently efficient and maybe a little LESS involved on-ball.

Yeah it seems like he will be a guy who hovers around the 18-22 ppg range for the next few years until we get a true volume scorer who draws the defenses in, and he can play off that. Then we'll see that immediate jump to 22+ ppg probably.

Yeah even yesterday, Atl started double teaming Barnes when he got in the post. Him having a legit outside #1 scorer to dish it out to will be huge. Just like that guy drawing double teams and Barnes getting mismatches will help him.

Lowry was able to take over certain games but was fine getting others easy buckets and got just as much joy from it. Barnes is the same way. Just watch that video of him in studio...they wanted to talk about his middy game and he also talks about the joy he gets from making nice passes.

And as I mentioned the Lowry take over offensively I always think of game 6 where he scored the first 12 pts of the game to set the tone. Barnes can do that when he gets in his prime. We have all seen 4th Q takeovers.

I just hope someday we get him that top outside scorer to see how they mesh together.

[anotherhomer]

His last 10 games he's shooting 23% from 3.

Safe to say that shot is broken. Whoever is teaching him 3s should be replaced. I've seen way too many of his shots rim out for me to think that form is solid.

ya that's the only part of the game is a concern.....
i don't think the 3 will be a big part of his game ever

[PushDaRock]

I was thinking 24pts...but yes.

We should probably set our volume bar lower for him, as it will be easier for him to at least potentially approach efficient basketball if he isn't required to shoulder a higher-volume scoring load. Next year will be the half-decade mark for him and he hasn't hit league average once. He is working on his 3rd season in 4 at or under 30% from 3 and he's actually worsened at getting to the rim. He's doing a lot of things well on the court, and watching his middle game and his playmaking develop is nice, but it's pretty clear so far that he isn't the guy you want shooting a ton at this stage of his career. As we eventually progress to being a better team, it might be wiser to shoot for that 18-20 ppg range and see if he can't be decently efficient and maybe a little LESS involved on-ball.

Yeah it seems like he will be a guy who hovers around the 18-22 ppg range for the next few years until we get a true volume scorer who draws the defenses in, and he can play off that. Then we'll see that immediate jump to 22+ ppg probably.

How would he play off a high volume scorer though? He can't space the floor and isn't really an off the ball cutter, so where's he getting his easier shots from on increased volume?

[tsherkin]

Yeah even yesterday, Atl started double teaming Barnes when he got in the post. Him having a legit outside #1 scorer to dish it out to will be huge. Just like that guy drawing double teams and Barnes getting mismatches will help him.

Scottie's passing has definitely been a bright spot. And yes, the more we have reliable shooting around him, the more that will open certain doors for him.

I just hope someday we get him that top outside scorer to see how they mesh together.

We'll see how it goes.

If Gradey continues to develop, then that should help.

[anotherhomer]

We should probably set our volume bar lower for him, as it will be easier for him to at least potentially approach efficient basketball if he isn't required to shoulder a higher-volume scoring load. Next year will be the half-decade mark for him and he hasn't hit league average once. He is working on his 3rd season in 4 at or under 30% from 3 and he's actually worsened at getting to the rim. He's doing a lot of things well on the court, and watching his middle game and his playmaking develop is nice, but it's pretty clear so far that he isn't the guy you want shooting a ton at this stage of his career. As we eventually progress to being a better team, it might be wiser to shoot for that 18-20 ppg range and see if he can't be decently efficient and maybe a little LESS involved on-ball.

Yeah it seems like he will be a guy who hovers around the 18-22 ppg range for the next few years until we get a true volume scorer who draws the defenses in, and he can play off that. Then we'll see that immediate jump to 22+ ppg probably.

How would he play off a high volume scorer though? He can't space the floor and isn't really an off the ball cutter, so where's he getting his easier shots from on increased volume?

he can space the floor a bit, but he's more of a hub person, operating from that high-post /elbow where he can easily pass the ball and etc

[PushDaRock]

Yeah it seems like he will be a guy who hovers around the 18-22 ppg range for the next few years until we get a true volume scorer who draws the defenses in, and he can play off that. Then we'll see that immediate jump to 22+ ppg probably.

I don't know that we will. It's probably better to continue constraining his offense unless we see some miraculous and unlikely change in his skill set. But the more we get him off ball, the more we reduce his volume, the more likely he is to present us with competent efficiency, so we should be chasing that... later, of course, once the team's competitive power starts trending upward, of course. While we're tanking, whatever, let him develop, see what happens, naturally.

I was hoping for a big jump in volume for him after Siakam left but it just hasn't happened. He's projecting more to be a #3 scorer on a contending team which I think is the most likely scenario barring a really big jump for him. I think the way to optimize him as a player eventually though is to have him focus more of his energy on the defensive side and becoming an All-NBA level defender rather than handling a large offensive load he likely isn't equipped for. That likely is the path that maximizes his potential. In a throw away season, I don't mind the experimenting though and letting him work on things.

[Raps in 4]

Despite scoring at a decent clip as of late, he's still been very inefficient because he's not hitting his 3s nor getting to the line. He needs to add at least one of those two elements to his game.

[HangTime]

You get him some true

he still has so much room to grow, the fact that he could have games like these and still fumble the ball 15 times a game... he will get more comfortable attacking, more fluid

you can tell he's still figuring things out

i will take a step back and say, hawks didn't really have any bigs to stop him, so that did contribute to his big game

people keep saying year 4 he should be this and that already... this is the first time he's being put in these positions. Guys like paolo and cade have been thrust into this position from day 1, I would love to see what scottie would be had he been in the same role earlier

This is what people don't understand.
Also, His overall skillset is so diverse, it's going to take time, to find the balance.

We have to treat this like as if this his 2nd year.

I think the fact that he doesn't have to hunt for mismatches, and just use/work on different skills vs different type of defenders will help in the long run.
He's what'd I'd call a TRUE #1 option.

While others struggle when they don't get the mismatch becasue their moves work against one type of defender. They can't, or don't want to work on something different.

[tsherkin]

I was hoping for a big jump in volume for him after Siakam left but it just hasn't happened. He's projecting more to be a #3 scorer on a contending team which I think is the most likely scenario barring a really big jump for him. I think the way to optimize him as a player eventually though is to have him focus more of his energy on the defensive side and becoming an All-NBA level defender rather than handling a large offensive load he likely isn't equipped for. That likely is the path that maximizes his potential. In a throw away season, I don't mind the experimenting though and letting him work on things.

I have been relatively low on Scottie as a scorer for a while, though I'm not thrilled to be correct so far, hah. I agree that, at least in present form, a secondary playmaker and defensively-focused guy is probably his best role. Right now, we're seeing what he can do in this vein, but it's not going very well overall. Backward steps for minimal development in his mid-range game don't a high-end offensive player project, you know? But whatever, he's still a useful piece to have on our team and we're still pretending like we might get Flagg, so it's something. And every now and again, he has a little run and he looks like he could be something else. When he's clicking as he has been these past 3 games, he looks like a pretty decent #2. Shooting is so hard to develop as a primary player once you've already hit the league, though, so I remain skeptical.

[ash_k]

I always feel he could and should take many more shots but then you look at the boxscore recently he has been leading us in Field Goal attempts every time..
and He really should not take more than 4 3s per game.
You are a midrange-player Scottie, accept it, like all the all-time greats have been.

[Scase]

He just takes bad shots from 3. You'll see him take the 3 instead of make a simple swing to a better shooter. He's been given the greenlight and so he's just guiltlessly chucking.

10-14 feet he's been as good as anyone, but once he starts to get pushed further out it's really bad.

I've been saying this all season, I don't have an issue with him taking 3's, I have an issue with him taking bad ones. He takes 3's like he's a 40% shooter, when he should be taking them as a specialist. He's got a good touch in the corner and we should find him there more often.

[HangTime]

He just takes bad shots from 3. You'll see him take the 3 instead of make a simple swing to a better shooter. He's been given the greenlight and so he's just guiltlessly chucking.

10-14 feet he's been as good as anyone, but once he starts to get pushed further out it's really bad.

I've been saying this all season, I don't have an issue with him taking 3's, I have an issue with him taking bad ones. He takes 3's like he's a 40% shooter, when he should be taking them as a specialist. He's got a good touch in the corner and we should find him there more often.

The "Bad 3s" are for Rep development, put in the minds of the defence that he's a willing shooter. When the shot starts falling (I think it will, like the first 30 games of last year) , then the defence will be in flux. It'll be a comfortable 3, or a blow by the defender closing out.

[tsherkin]

The "Bad 3s" are for Rep development, put in the minds of the defence that he's a willing shooter. When the shot starts falling (I think it will, like the first 30 games of last year) , then the defence will be in flux. It'll be a comfortable 3, or a blow by the defender closing out.

So. He shot 30.1% on 193 attempts as a rook, 28.1% on 224 attempts in his second season, he's shooting 27.8% over 162 attempts so far this season. But because he shot 38.9% on 162 attempts over those first 30 games last year (and then 28.4% over 134 attempts in the next 30 games), we're supposed to look at that as the likely eventuality?

I don't see it. He shot 35% for a month in 2023, shot 36% or better in two different months as a rookie, and he still normalized to a 28-30% shooter. It seems far more likely that it was just a shooting streak, as he's previously enjoyed.

I mean right now, it doesn't mean much for him to be taking these shots because it facilitates us losing and that's about all we can hope for at the moment unless we want to take a firm grip on mediocrity. But it is something we'll have to watch, because it'll become habit-forming.

[Tripod]

I always feel he could and should take many more shots but then you look at the boxscore recently he has been leading us in Field Goal attempts every time..
and He really should not take more than 4 3s per game.
You are a midrange-player Scottie, accept it, like all the all-time greats have been.

But even with those shots...the most he has taken the last 5 games is 17.

As a comparison, Cade had 31 FGA last game and only has below 17 in 1 game in his last 12.