How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[tontoz]

It seems to me that the Wizards team is invested in the following players (ie, via long term contracts with high salary or via 1st round picks). Kuzma, Poole, Kispert, Saar, Bilal, Bub, and George.

Deni was better than Kuzma/Poole /Kispert and they traded him less than a year after resigning him. I expect (or maybe just hope lol) all 3 will be traded within the next two years.

Remember that they had to have enough contracts on the books to make the salary floor. I would guess that is part of the reason why Kuzma and Kispert were resigned, along with the possibility of getting something in a trade.

[The Consiglieri]

I assume(d) the Kuzma, and Kispert moves were veterans and flipable scenarios, especially Kuzma, definitely sensed they wanted to flip him in '24 or ''25 (and indeed they tried, and failed, idiotically in moving him), Kispert is more speculative. I think its reupping a guy they wanted to be a piece and potential flip guy, that I viewed as stupid at the time.

The Poole trade always struck me as kinda weird, but slightly understandable if you view it as them buying a distressed asset because of the horrid contract, that was basically market value when signed, and then imploded post draymond punch. Now its rightly viewed as excessive stupidity from one outlier season, but at times you've seen him come back closer to what he was this year. I think they thought: #1 maybe he rediscovers his old form away from Draymond and/or we can flip him during a solid season.

The whole: you would bash any other GM for these moves take strikes me as just silly.

Everything they are doing is to insure that they tank as perfectly as possible for the '24, '25, and '26 classes, 2 of the 3 holding mega stud prospects and some degree of depth, all these outside things that keep getting picked on? I would agree that some have defended the moves with rationale but probably wrong, or at least hopefully minded (I didn't like any of the moves either, including the Deni move, I did want Deni traded, I just wanted blue chip zone capital, not non-top 10 pick in a crap draft and speculative futures), but they are basically the lettuce on the in and out animal style burger that's the '24, '25, '26 and possibly '27 firsts. Those first rounders are basically 85-90% of the consideration here. Would it be better if they'd made better trades, signings, and extensions? Absolutely? Does it matter hugely? Not at all, and I'd argue screwing up with Kuzma's and Poole's empty points, moving the one efficient talented player, made the tank for the '25, and '26 classes (the most important ones) probably a good 35-50% stronger than it would have been otherwise. Maybe that's the FO accidentally backing into smart long term moves, but I doubt it, I'm pretty sure they factored in that empty calorie players would help the team be less efficent in producing wins. Does that hurt the development of the kiddos? Not sure, but I also don't think the key franchise transforming players will even be in the building until '25 and '26, if things go right, so I don't really care and Poole and Kuzma are likely to be gone by some point in '25 or '26 regardless.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

...are Winger and Dawkins the guys to do it?

I hope so, but I have to say: I’m more skeptical than I thought I’d be (or wanted to be) at this point.

I’ve already seen some not-small whiffs in player personnel (Deni, Kuz, Tyus)...

You're talking yourself into misery.

Ernie thru Tommy -- created a team utterly devoid of value, a team that could not improve via a set of trades & also was unable to sign difference-making FAs. We are doing the only thing it was possible to do.

You're stating an opinion. No more. E.g. I don't think trading Deni was a "whiff." I also doubt that we simply gave Kuz a yay/nay on the Dallas trade. Good reason to believe the salary-kicker was a big part of the issue. & failing to move Tyus for a R2 pick was by no means a "not-small whiff." That's an invention. We took a chance on something, & it didn't work out as we'd have liked it to.

...I’m not seeing (Bub as) more than a JAG at this point in BC....

Sheesh.... What credit would you give an opinion of Deni 40 games into his career? Based on what he'd done to that point.

I see Bub as an extremely talented, extremely young guard who has a chance to develop into something special. He might fail, of course. That is a possibility for every just-drafted kid.

...I have a nagging worry that they are so intent on a certain prototype of a player (long, rangy, with handles) that they will overlook (or slight) a talent who doesn’t fit that model....

I'm sure they will miscalculate from time to time. Impossible not to in this business. Yet, liking "A" doesn't mean that you can't appreciate "B."

Might the rebuild fail? Sure! Any effort can fail. & it's way too early to declare success, obviously.

BC = Bilal. I didn’t mean Bub. Who put the parenthetical in?

“Talking myself into misery” — is that what this is? And would it be so unreasonable? After 40 years of having been ground down?

Ah, but this is the light, you say. It’s a-coming.

And it might be!

But it also …

The point is, I am watching and hoping. But I am not yet ready to give benefit of the doubt. And it’s not so much that I retain my skepticism as that I can’t seem to shake it off.

IIRC ERNIE WAS HERE 15 YEARS.

As Washington Wizards fans, we were worse off than 12-year slaves.

Then, after Ted's exhaustive replacement GM search, he came up with EG part deux. Tommy Sheppard was just as bad as EG, his mentor.

Those, along with Scott Brooks 7 years / $35 Mil and Bradley Beal 5 years / 251 Mil guaranteed NO TRADE CONTRACT; make me conclude that we've got the worst management EVER in the history of the NBA.

Name a more futile front office.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Double post

[payitforward]

...“Talking myself into misery” — is that what this is? And would it be so unreasonable? After 40 years of having been ground down?

Ah, but this is the light, you say. It’s a-coming.

And it might be!

But it also …

The point is, I am watching and hoping. But I am not yet ready to give benefit of the doubt. And it’s not so much that I retain my skepticism as that I can’t seem to shake it off.

Fair enough -- & it's not my job to tell people what to think!

If I don't think "skepticism" is warranted, I also don't think there is any reason to be certain that we will rebuild successfully.

I just think this beats the Grunfeld & Sheppard eras. At least we are trying to do the right thing!

What does seem obvious to me is that the process will be a long one. For that reason alone, patience is the only attitude with any chance to be rewarded.

Above all -- & this is not you -- the attitude of a few posters that, somehow, Winger/Dawkins have shown themselves to be incompetent, making one obvious mistake after another, seems both wrong & to mark out a path of thought that leads absolutely nowhere.

Now... no one is looking for ME to correct them! & everyone has a right to think along whatever lines they choose or that convince them. Nor would I be foolish enough to claim that I'm correct any more than any other fan (...ok, maybe a little bit more ). But, I do find myself becoming disturbed by constant negativity. Yet... that's no one's problem to solve but mine.

[dobrojim]

So many uncertainties play into how long "the Process" takes to predict
with much certainty when we might be good or at least interesting again.
Getting Flagg would almost certainly speed things up though, maybe even
enough to put our '26 FRP at risk.

[nate33]

So many uncertainties play into how long "the Process" takes to predict
with much certainty when we might be good or at least interesting again.
Getting Flagg would almost certainly speed things up though, maybe even
enough to put our '26 FRP at risk.

There are no words to describe how little I'm worried about our 2026 being at risk.

[dobrojim]

One player can make a difference, sometimes a big difference.
And all it would take is a little improvement to say 4-5th worst
combined with bad luck and the pick could convey. Never underestimate
the power of #sowizards. Maybe a lifetime of being a Wiz fan has
me irrationally fatalistic.

[dobrojim]

Was LaBron/Reaves on that list? Combined age of Bub/Sarr is less than LBJ by himself.
Combined experience of Bilal/Sarr is less than Reaves by himself.
Do we know things will definitely get better? No. But it's too early
to panic. I'm pretty sure our kids will be better in the future. The
question no one can answer (at this time) is how much better.

[payitforward]

So many uncertainties play into how long "the Process" takes to predict
with much certainty when we might be good or at least interesting again.
Getting Flagg would almost certainly speed things up though, maybe even
enough to put our '26 FRP at risk.

There are no words to describe how little I'm worried about our 2026 being at risk.

ditto!

[dobrojim]

alright
the more I watch this group of kids play, the more concerned I become.
I'm not seeing enough improvement in the basics.

[trast66]

If Bronny has a break out game against us tomorrow, then I’ll be concerned and alarmed.

[TGW]

I have zero faith in any player on this roster being anything more than a 6th man on a good team. I am not enamored at all with Carrington, Sarr, and even Bilal has given me little hope. And it's not necessarily the players themselves...I guarantee you put these guys on the Lakers, Celtics or Heat, you'd see real development. But not this staff. Keefe and crew are failing miserably, despite having about 98 coaches, and the players that actually put in a consistent effort and deserve their minutes (Butler and Champagnie) are relegated to mop up duties. So the culture is one where selfish, trash play is rewarded with minutes, while defense and hard work is relegated to spot minutes.

Roster gets a D-, front office gets a D, and culture gets an F grade from me.

[dobrojim]

Bilal's offense in particular has been really bad lately.

[payitforward]

...& not only that, the the sky is falling too!

[dobrojim]

or, tragically, airplanes and helicopters are colliding in our skies.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

alright
the more I watch this group of kids play, the more concerned I become.
I'm not seeing enough improvement in the basics.

I agree.

A better approach might be to assign them to skills and drills training like European basketball as opposed to trotting them out to get bashed every NBA game. The travel is excessive, and I can only imagine life in the fast lane for these new millionaire kids.

They suck. They're worse than they were in October. Perhaps Alex Sarr has improved a bit. They all need to get stronger, but I'm not seeing improved play either, jim.

[leswizards]

The Wizards (as is most NBA franchises) are operating on an outdated model to build their team. Teams are trying to hard to find the diamond in the rough. Instead, teams should be prioritizing who can produce the most over the first 3 years of their career.

NBA teams have proven to be thoroughly incompetent at finding the diamond in the rough. Meanwhile, NBA rules have changed so that teams only have control over draft picks for 3 years before they have to decide whether they want to commit to the player or not, and the value of committing to such players are barely a better value than signing a free agent.

[payitforward]

Hey, that's an interesting notion -- please expand on the reasoning behind it.

[leswizards]

I just looked at the top 10 players from the 2017 to 2020 drafts based upon their ws, and I then looked to see if any of those players could be considered diamond in the roughs (ie, was their ws/48 so low in their first 3 seasons that you had to question whether they would make it in the NBA). Their were only 10 players (out of 40) that I could identify that might fit that description, and for most of those players they really only had 1 bad season while their other 2 seasons were decent to good.

Basically, you are going to know within the first 3 seasons whether a player is going to be good or not, and they are generally going to be pretty decent right from the start.

If you have a project on your hands, you are probably wasting your time.

The Wizards (unfortunately) are probably wasting their time with Bilal, Saar, George and Bub.

The 10 players that you might say were diamonds in the rough: Anthony Edwards, Isaac Okoro, Jaden McDaniels, Ja Morant, Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, Josh Harr, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markkanen, and OG Anunoby.