Official Play-in Thread - Our Play-in Destiny is in our Hands

[PushDaRock]

Surest predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour (in terms of whether or not Masai will kill the tank at the trade deadline).

Raptors had a record of 19-33 when they made the Poeltl trade in 2023. At the time they were the 12th seed in the East (and 7th in the tank standings) with 30 games left to play, 4 games behind the 10th seed Hawks and 6 games behind the 9th seed Bulls. They also had an easy schedule remaining down the stretch.

Right now we are 14-32 with 5 games left until the trade deadline and 36 games left in the regular season. We are currently the 12th seed in the East (and 6th in the tank standings), 5.5 games behind the 10th seed Bulls and 8 games behind the 9th seed Hawks. According to Tankathon we have the easiest remaining SOS in the league.

Depending on how these next 5 games before the deadline go, we could be in an eerily similar situation to 2023 (some differences but still could be eerily similar).

Not sure where you got 19-33 from, we were never that bad. There's zero chance Masai makes that deal with Jak if we were.

[Jerry Lucas]

Surest predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour (in terms of whether or not Masai will kill the tank at the trade deadline).

Raptors had a record of 19-33 when they made the Poeltl trade in 2023. At the time they were the 12th seed in the East (and 7th in the tank standings) with 30 games left to play, 4 games behind the 10th seed Hawks and 6 games behind the 9th seed Bulls. They also had an easy schedule remaining down the stretch.

Right now we are 14-32 with 5 games left until the trade deadline and 36 games left in the regular season. We are currently the 12th seed in the East (and 6th in the tank standings), 5.5 games behind the 10th seed Bulls and 8 games behind the 9th seed Hawks. According to Tankathon we have the easiest remaining SOS in the league.

Depending on how these next 5 games before the deadline go, we could be in an eerily similar situation to 2023 (some differences but still could be eerily similar).

Not sure where you got 19-33 from, we were never that bad. There's zero chance Masai makes that deal with Jak if we were.

I already fixed the post, another poster corrected me on the previous page.

[Merit]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

[Duffman100]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

Let's revert the lottery odds. Top non playoff team with the best odds. Wouldn't that solve everything?

[Nebuchadnezzar]

so getting back to the topic - can we make the play-in?

we have 36 games left.

the hawks are 9th place and a full 8 games ahead of us. catching them would take an absolute miracle.
sixers are 4 games ahead of us in 11th place. we play them 3 more times.
bulls are 5.5 games ahead of us in 10th place. we play them 3 more times.

our schedule until the all star break:
@was, chi, lac, nyk, mem (b2b), @okc, @hou, @phi, cle (b2b)

bulls schedule until the break:
@bos, @tor, @det, mia, @min (b2b), gsw, det, det (b2b)

bulls have a tough schedule but ours is even tougher. chances are super duper low at the moment and i would go so far as to say that if we don't beat the bulls on friday, then there's zero shot.

What if the Bulls end up selling the farm? There's still a chance they might decide to tank after the deadline.

You are incorrect about the schedule. We have the easiest schedule in the league from now until the end of the year out of 30 teams. The Bulls have 13 hardest. Please refer to my update at the beginning of this thread I keep all this info up to date there.

[ontnut]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

Let's revert the lottery odds. Top non playoff team with the best odds. Wouldn't that solve everything?

Nah it'd just move the tanking from the bottom to the middle of the pack lol. Anyone in that play-in area, even up to the 5th or 6th seed, would just start tanking to get that 10th/11th spot and you'd have some WEIRD games leading up to the playoffs. You'd have situations where legit playoff teams tank a few games, and get the #1 overall pick. I don't think that helps the league.

And then you'd also have problems of bad teams just remaining bad forever in a perpetual cycle of inferiority and talent deficit.

Further; now that the league is in bed with sportsbooks, this would be nightmare fuel for bookies and bettors alike. You'd have the 30th worst team blowing out the 10th best team on any given night leading up to the playoffs. How many Johntay Porter situations would happen then? Like one player finds out they're sitting all their stars, and just tells a buddy to bet heavy on their opponent, when the spread is 10pts the other way. It'd be a mess.

[Ell Curry]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

Let's revert the lottery odds. Top non playoff team with the best odds. Wouldn't that solve everything?

I think you just flatten it totally and hope nobody wants to miss the playoffs for a 7.1% chance of winning the lottery (or a 21.4% chance of a top 3 pick). And I guess if anyone seems like they're doing it, fine them money and picks.

[djsunyc]

so getting back to the topic - can we make the play-in?

we have 36 games left.

the hawks are 9th place and a full 8 games ahead of us. catching them would take an absolute miracle.
sixers are 4 games ahead of us in 11th place. we play them 3 more times.
bulls are 5.5 games ahead of us in 10th place. we play them 3 more times.

our schedule until the all star break:
@was, chi, lac, nyk, mem (b2b), @okc, @hou, @phi, cle (b2b)

bulls schedule until the break:
@bos, @tor, @det, mia, @min (b2b), gsw, det, det (b2b)

bulls have a tough schedule but ours is even tougher. chances are super duper low at the moment and i would go so far as to say that if we don't beat the bulls on friday, then there's zero shot.

What if the Bulls end up selling the farm? There's still a chance they might decide to tank after the deadline.

You are incorrect about the schedule. We have the easiest schedule in the league from now until the end of the year out of 30 teams. The Bulls have 13 hardest. Please refer to my update at the beginning of this thread I keep all this info up to date there.

i meant through the all star break.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

What if the Bulls end up selling the farm? There's still a chance they might decide to tank after the deadline.

You are incorrect about the schedule. We have the easiest schedule in the league from now until the end of the year out of 30 teams. The Bulls have 13 hardest. Please refer to my update at the beginning of this thread I keep all this info up to date there.

i meant through the all star break.

But then you say our chances of catching them are low as a result...overall we have the easiest schedule and they don't, so that's what matters.

[Shakril]

You are incorrect about the schedule. We have the easiest schedule in the league from now until the end of the year out of 30 teams. The Bulls have 13 hardest. Please refer to my update at the beginning of this thread I keep all this info up to date there.

i meant through the all star break.

But then you say our chances of catching them are low as a result...overall we have the easiest schedule and they don't, so that's what matters.

We are still 6 games behind. We would literally need to win around at least 25 games to catch up. I am expecting that you need around 37-40 Wins for the 10th place. Thats a tall task.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

i meant through the all star break.

But then you say our chances of catching them are low as a result...overall we have the easiest schedule and they don't, so that's what matters.

We are still 6 games behind. We would literally need to win around at least 25 games to catch up. I am expecting that you need around 37-40 Wins for the 10th place. Thats a tall task.

We are 5.5 games behind. 3 versus Chicago who is now resting Zach Lavine. If we win those we are down to 2.5 games. Then we have 4 versus the wizards and the easiest schedule in the league. That is very doable. Remember, teams we are chasing are quite bad.

[Shakril]

But then you say our chances of catching them are low as a result...overall we have the easiest schedule and they don't, so that's what matters.

We are still 6 games behind. We would literally need to win around at least 25 games to catch up. I am expecting that you need around 37-40 Wins for the 10th place. Thats a tall task.

We are 5.5 games behind. 3 versus Chicago who is now resting Zach Lavine. If we win those we are down to 2.5 games. Then we have 4 versus the wizards and the easiest schedule in the league. That is very doable. Remember, teams we are chasing are quite bad.

These are many ifs and paint a very optimistic picture. I would not be surprised if we lose against washington.

[Merit]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

Let's revert the lottery odds. Top non playoff team with the best odds. Wouldn't that solve everything?

In my opinion, it would definitely improve the parity in the league. However, the worst teams stay really horrible. Not sure how to square that.

[YogurtProducer]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

Let's revert the lottery odds. Top non playoff team with the best odds. Wouldn't that solve everything?

People would purposefully miss the play in.

I’d be fine making a flat lottery and extending it to the play-in teams too though.

7th-15th seeds in each conference in the lottery.

[YogurtProducer]

I have zero interest in our being in the play-in, unless we could guarantee an Atlanta Hawks outcome. Having the best odds without demolishing morale is where it's at. No need to repeat the mistakes of the wemby draft unless there's an absolutely astounding offer.

That said, earlier this season I made a statement that we were good enough to be in the play-in if everyone stayed healthy and we weren't trying to tank. Fairly certain that is still the case.

Let's revert the lottery odds. Top non playoff team with the best odds. Wouldn't that solve everything?

In my opinion, it would definitely improve the parity in the league. However, the worst teams stay really horrible. Not sure how to square that.

Well those teams would have more incentive to actually play their guys and sign vets. In theory, the worst teams wouldn’t ever be as bad

[ahollz]

I hope Masai makes another Poetl-like trade. These kids need play-off experience!

[Tripod]

But then you say our chances of catching them are low as a result...overall we have the easiest schedule and they don't, so that's what matters.

We are still 6 games behind. We would literally need to win around at least 25 games to catch up. I am expecting that you need around 37-40 Wins for the 10th place. Thats a tall task.

We are 5.5 games behind. 3 versus Chicago who is now resting Zach Lavine. If we win those we are down to 2.5 games. Then we have 4 versus the wizards and the easiest schedule in the league. That is very doable. Remember, teams we are chasing are quite bad.

You have to leapfrog both Chicago and Philly...no chance of catching anyone else. If Philly gets any type of health, we will never catch them.

Sell the vets as planned, add extra picks in the coming years.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

I hope Masai makes another Poetl-like trade. These kids need play-off experience!

Exactly, the Brandon Ingram rumours that nobody here are talking about would be great trade.

[ahollz]

I hope Masai makes another Poetl-like trade. These kids need play-off experience!

Exactly, the Brandon Ingram rumours that nobody here are talking about would be great trade.

For sure, beat the Hawks then show those Clevelander they should've picked our boy Scottie. Future face of the league!

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Update 830 PST January 28

Now in 12th spot and moving up the charts!

We've got 3 left vs. Chicago and are currently 5.5 games behind them for tenth and the final play-in spot. We've got 38 left to play. Zach Lavine has been reported to be taking "a few games" off for personal reasons.
The Bulls play the Celtics on Wednesday Jan.29th in Boston.

We've got 4 to games left with the wizards and the easiest remaining schedule in the entire league.

The only wild card is what philly does. We are 4.5 games back, and also play them 3 times. Update: Paul George left the game against the Bulls on Jan.25 with a finger injury, MRI revealed a milder injury, listed as day to day. The sixers are on a second night of a back to back playing the Kings at home on Wednesday Jan.29th.