2024-25 Season Discussion and Speculation Part II

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[sashaturiaf]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/278930/Sixers-Receiving-Trade-Interest-On-Guerschon-Yabusele-Eric-Gordon

If dancing bear is made available the Suns should be all over it. He's exactly what we need at the backup power forward spot. Basically a taller more athletic PJ Tucker.

It's criminal 76ers got him for the minimum. Anyone who watched the Olympics knew he was legit. Just shows how hopeless our front office is. You knew we are 2nd apron and can only hand out minimums, yet we keep cycling through washed NBA vets instead of paying attention to places where you can actually get value

I was actively lobbying on our board to get him this past off season. You're right, he looked great at the Olympics, flat out bullying the American team with his physicality at times. I loved the Tyus Jones acquisition but Yabusele would have been my favorite off season acquisition, had we gotten him.

Would have been great for us with his physicality and versatility on Defense. Oh well, no point crying over spilt milk with this front office other than to say it's concerning fans on message boards know what's better for the team than the people actually in charge

[sunsbg]

Kings saw they are in no mans land and unlike Suns decided to blow it up. At least that improves our chance of making the playoffs.

[garrick]

You can have balanced takes without being overly critical or overly dismissive. Saying ishbia runs it like a business and that he's a smart guy doesn't necessarily mean he can run an NBA team successfully. Virtually every NBA owner have had extremely successful business careers (that's how the could afford being an owner) but you could probably count on one hand the number of actually good owners and more often than not, the bet ones are the ones you hear the least from. I mean, when's the last time we heard from owners like Grousbeck and Holt. At the same time, some of the worst decisions made over the past decade or so have been, loudly, done by overly hands-on owners like Sarver with his cost savings, Vivek, Jordan, Dolan etc.

Success in business =/= success in the NBA

I like a lot of what Ish has done, especially the off the court stuff like bringing back a G-League team, setting $2 concessions, bringing Suns basketball to local TV, allowed our front office to spend and I think he's just been a great owner from a community and fan perspective. Where he's fallen is being far too hands-on in the business of making deals

Right. What has he done wrong so far? No one knows. Everyone is guessing at this point.

Let it play out. Spend what you have to spend. You got players for 3 years. If it doesn’t work then blow it up. Open your pocket book and that 2031 isn’t going to be what people think

So far, two of his signature moves has yet to pay any dividends. We're deeper into the 2nd apron than ever, have by far the biggest total spend of any team in the league ($90m more than 2nd place), have fewer quality draft capital than before and despite a pretty soft schedule thus far, we've been hovering around .500 for most of the season.

The KD/Beal/Book experiment is already half way through the 2nd season and empirically, we're not even better than we were last season which most fans and probably Ishbia himself consider a disappointment.

If we can blow it up and get out of the 2nd apron then the 1st round picks we still have could be in the lottery so needlessly spending ungodly amounts of money to only lose in the 1st round or not even make the playoffs is an exercise in futility and insanity.

Booker will be 29 next season and should still have some value for a team that needs any kind of star power so I am all for moving on from him and KD if we can still find any takers for him at his age and huge salary.

As for Beal we will need to just live with Beal's terrible contract and see if all the losing will cause him to waive his NTC but if Book and KD are no longer on the team that might make it more palatable to him to be traded somewhere else.

[SunsRback4Good]

It's criminal 76ers got him for the minimum. Anyone who watched the Olympics knew he was legit. Just shows how hopeless our front office is. You knew we are 2nd apron and can only hand out minimums, yet we keep cycling through washed NBA vets instead of paying attention to places where you can actually get value

I was actively lobbying on our board to get him this past off season. You're right, he looked great at the Olympics, flat out bullying the American team with his physicality at times. I loved the Tyus Jones acquisition but Yabusele would have been my favorite off season acquisition, had we gotten him.

Would have been great for us with his physicality and versatility on Defense. Oh well, no point crying over spilt milk with this front office other than to say it's concerning fans on message boards know what's better for the team than the people actually in charge

We didn’t have a Chance to get Yabusele. Philly offered him a better deal and he ran with it.

[sashaturiaf]

I was actively lobbying on our board to get him this past off season. You're right, he looked great at the Olympics, flat out bullying the American team with his physicality at times. I loved the Tyus Jones acquisition but Yabusele would have been my favorite off season acquisition, had we gotten him.

Would have been great for us with his physicality and versatility on Defense. Oh well, no point crying over spilt milk with this front office other than to say it's concerning fans on message boards know what's better for the team than the people actually in charge

We didn’t have a Chance to get Yabusele. Philly offered him a better deal and he ran with it.

He's on a minimum. We can't do better or match that?

Tyus on a min was a great get, credit where it's due.

[Puff]

Not saying championship. But how does butler not make us better. Beal is not that good with this group. We are. Not losing anything making this move. Even if we trade all 3 picks. We can get more over the years especially when we finally do blow it up.

Did Durant make us better? I believe our win totals went down after that acquisition.

What is your plan? You want to be a losing team in the lottery in hope we can get good draft picks? In the mean time not make a playoff run for 10 years? It just doesn’t make sense right now.

I remember 10 years of rooting for the Suns to lose so that we would improve our position in the draft. We got a lot of draft picks that were worthless and absolutely whiffed on choosing Ayton over Doncic.

If we get Butler, we will have the big three for three years. If they have limited success in the next two years they will all be traded after the 2nd year. All three will be gone after the third year and we will have tons of cap space to rebuild quickly.

I am with dcoop.

What should we do? We absolutely are not trading KD or Booker at this point. We are not going to blow it up.

Who is better for this team, now. Butler or Beal?

What we need is a closer and if Butler can bring that to this team. It could change everything. I have zero confidence in Booker at this point.

[sunskerr]

Did Durant make us better? I believe our win totals went down after that acquisition.

What is your plan? You want to be a losing team in the lottery in hope we can get good draft picks? In the mean time not make a playoff run for 10 years? It just doesn’t make sense right now.

I remember 10 years of rooting for the Suns to lose so that we would improve our position in the draft. We got a lot of draft picks that were worthless and absolutely whiffed on choosing Ayton over Doncic.

If we get Butler, we will have the big three for three years. If they have limited success in the next two years they will all be traded after the 2nd year. All three will be gone after the third year and we will have tons of cap space to rebuild quickly.

I am with dcoop.

What should we do? We absolutely are not trading KD or Booker at this point. We are not going to blow it up.

Who is better for this team, now. Butler or Beal?

What we need is a closer and if Butler can bring that to this team. It could change everything. I have no zero confidence in Booker at this point.

You won't get anything for KD and Butler in two years. Every year their value depreciates with age. They also are declining in terms of impact. You might not particularly see it in the box score but it's there in the advanced metrics (the ones that teams use/base their own models off - EPM/LEBRON/DARKO) already and basically every team in the league has sniffed this out already.

Also Bookers value, while still significant, will not be quite as a high at 31 instead of 28.

The old blokes are also simply at an age where you can just fall off a cliff from one year to the next. Like you might not actually get three years. We could be a decent playoff team this year and then miss next year. That's how aging works - it's ever present, we know we can predict it, but we don't actually know how we will get "there".

Just thought I'd clear up some of these misconceptions regarding how players age. It's not that when you have a guy producing at 35 he is guaranteed to be good the next 3 years or age slowly. That can happen, but also what can happen just as often is that they evaporate into nothing. And eventually in their late 30s teams tend to not give up anything significant regardless of how well they are producing.

The likelyhood of a dropoff if you can picture it on a graph is like...increasing every year past age 29 until it hits 99.9999% at like x year in the late 30s. In general that's what the model looks like.

So yeah, if we are going into a future where we're expecting 3 years of contending, we just need to be clear that historically there's some pretty good odds that actually might not be the case.

[Saberestar]

What is your plan? You want to be a losing team in the lottery in hope we can get good draft picks? In the mean time not make a playoff run for 10 years? It just doesn’t make sense right now.

I remember 10 years of rooting for the Suns to lose so that we would improve our position in the draft. We got a lot of draft picks that were worthless and absolutely whiffed on choosing Ayton over Doncic.

If we get Butler, we will have the big three for three years. If they have limited success in the next two years they will all be traded after the 2nd year. All three will be gone after the third year and we will have tons of cap space to rebuild quickly.

I am with dcoop.

What should we do? We absolutely are not trading KD or Booker at this point. We are not going to blow it up.

Who is better for this team, now. Butler or Beal?

What we need is a closer and if Butler can bring that to this team. It could change everything. I have no zero confidence in Booker at this point.

You won't get anything for KD and Butler in two years. Every year their value depreciates with age. They also are declining in terms of impact. You might not particularly see it in the box score but it's there in the advanced metrics (the ones that teams use/base their own models off - EPM/LEBRON/DARKO) already and basically every team in the league has sniffed this out already.

Also Bookers value, while still significant, will not be quite as a high at 31 instead of 28.

The old blokes are also simply at an age where you can just fall off a cliff from one year to the next. Like you might not actually get three years. We could be a decent playoff team this year and then miss next year. That's how aging works - it's ever present, we know we can predict it, but we don't actually know how we will get "there".

Just thought I'd clear up some of these misconceptions regarding how players age. It's not that when you have a guy producing at 35 he is guaranteed to be good the next 3 years or age slowly. That can happen, but also what can happen just as often is that they evaporate into nothing. And eventually in their late 30s teams tend to not give up anything significant regardless of how well they are producing.

The likelyhood of a dropoff if you can picture it on a graph is like...increasing every year past age 29 until it hits 99.9999% at like x year in the late 30s. In general that's what the model looks like.

So yeah, if we are going into a future where we're expecting 3 years of contending, we just need to be clear that historically there's some pretty good odds that actually might not be the case.

There is a misconception about KD and Butler' extensions. It will be a 2 year deal. After this current season they would sign a 2-year contract.

[sunskerr]

there is a misconception about KD and Butler' extensions. It will be a 2 year deal. After this current sqeason they would sign a 2-year contract.

Doesnt really affect my analysis at all but it's nice to know.

[King4Day]

there is a misconception about KD and Butler' extensions. It will be a 2 year deal. After this current sqeason they would sign a 2-year contract.

Doesnt really affect my analysis at all but it's nice to know.

Would they both pickup their player options and then extend for an additional 2 years?
So 3 years total for both I would think.

[sunsbg]

Say Suns got Butler, it didn't work out as expected and FO finally decides to go in a different direction in 2 years. Pro Butler trade people, what is your plan for Suns staying relevant ? Who are potential FA signings ?

[Saberestar]

there is a misconception about KD and Butler' extensions. It will be a 2 year deal. After this current sqeason they would sign a 2-year contract.

Doesnt really affect my analysis at all but it's nice to know.

Would they both pickup their player options and then extend for an additional 2 years?
So 3 years total for both I would think.

Theorically KD yes, but we don't know **** about Butler.

The contract extensión is (at most) two years for both because of the rules.

Edit: OK, I understand what you are saying now and you are probable right. Player option first + then the (2 years) extension. That could be right.

[KdoubleDees23]

We aren't getting top Draft picks or young talent back this year! Get Butler if you can, and some fillers with Nurkic or Allen trade. Run it this year, and see how we finish. If we dont make a run or playoff get smoked, then trade everyone in the Summer.

KD or Booker to Hou or OKC

[King4Day]

I absolutely forgot about these picks.
If I'm the Kings, get those, and Vassel as the centerpiece, and call it a day.

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[BobbieL]

Let's be mediocre with the oldest roster in the league and then be shocked when we have to suck for 15 years again.

This is where I am at!

If Ishbia trades 3 FRPs to get Butler or uses Dunn to get another pick and trades at least two FRPs to get Butler combined with extending Butler and Durant - the Suns will be irrelevant until the mid 2030s.

[BobbieL]

What is your plan? You want to be a losing team in the lottery in hope we can get good draft picks? In the mean time not make a playoff run for 10 years? It just doesn’t make sense right now.

I remember 10 years of rooting for the Suns to lose so that we would improve our position in the draft. We got a lot of draft picks that were worthless and absolutely whiffed on choosing Ayton over Doncic.

If we get Butler, we will have the big three for three years. If they have limited success in the next two years they will all be traded after the 2nd year. All three will be gone after the third year and we will have tons of cap space to rebuild quickly.

I am with dcoop.

What should we do? We absolutely are not trading KD or Booker at this point. We are not going to blow it up.

Who is better for this team, now. Butler or Beal?

What we need is a closer and if Butler can bring that to this team. It could change everything. I have no zero confidence in Booker at this point.

You won't get anything for KD and Butler in two years. Every year their value depreciates with age. They also are declining in terms of impact. You might not particularly see it in the box score but it's there in the advanced metrics (the ones that teams use/base their own models off - EPM/LEBRON/DARKO) already and basically every team in the league has sniffed this out already.

Also Bookers value, while still significant, will not be quite as a high at 31 instead of 28.

The old blokes are also simply at an age where you can just fall off a cliff from one year to the next. Like you might not actually get three years. We could be a decent playoff team this year and then miss next year. That's how aging works - it's ever present, we know we can predict it, but we don't actually know how we will get "there".

Just thought I'd clear up some of these misconceptions regarding how players age. It's not that when you have a guy producing at 35 he is guaranteed to be good the next 3 years or age slowly. That can happen, but also what can happen just as often is that they evaporate into nothing. And eventually in their late 30s teams tend to not give up anything significant regardless of how well they are producing.

The likelyhood of a dropoff if you can picture it on a graph is like...increasing every year past age 29 until it hits 99.9999% at like x year in the late 30s. In general that's what the model looks like.

So yeah, if we are going into a future where we're expecting 3 years of contending, we just need to be clear that historically there's some pretty good odds that actually might not be the case.

I am with you - every day they would be on the roster - the trade value goes down down down.

Booker in two years won't even get close to what Dipshitbia paid for Durant. I mean, I thought McDunce was bad but Dipshitbia is even worse. Good owner - terrible GM

[bullsaficianado]

I absolutely forgot about these picks.
If I'm the Kings, get those, and Vassel as the centerpiece, and call it a day.

Read on Twitter

They would still be competitive with Vassell in place of Fox. If Spurs going to give them a ton of draft picks they should do it before the trade deadline.

[King4Day]

I absolutely forgot about these picks.
If I'm the Kings, get those, and Vassel as the centerpiece, and call it a day.

Read on Twitter

They would still be competitive with Vassell in place of Fox. If Spurs going to give them a ton of draft picks they should do it before the trade deadline.

I think it depends on what the Kings want. If they want a player, they'll get less picks back. If they want only picks, they can essentially clear the Spurs' cupboard.

[King4Day]

I believe we have 1 or 2 more seasons in the second apron before our 1sts are frozen where we can't trade them. So we'd HAVE to start blowing it up. Question becomes, do they unfreeze if we are a few years out of the apron by then? Or is that permanent?