Wembanyama, I'm concerned (Part 2)

[Drakeem]

This thread continues to provide a solid amount of laughs whenever I'm bored at work.

Like, this guy is in his second season with his running mate being a 40 year old Chris Paul, locking up the DPOY award, having the Spurs looking semi respectable, while putting up some eyepopping stats for a sophomore player.

And yet, people want to call him a "non-winning" player when the Spurs look like a G-League team without him. To the haters, you should try just sitting back and being a fan. I'm telling you, it's so much better enjoying greatness in the moment vs retroactively accepting it.

[ITYSL]

I don't know why anyone needs to be concerned with Wemby. He has fallen out of the top 10 in some impact stats like LEBRON WAR and EPM Wins, but it's his sophomore season and the guy is a beast. Offensively he should be pounding it inside a bit more to get some easy buckets and to get the opponent in foul trouble more often. Defensively he is clearly DPOY level already.

Mostly agree, but I don't even think he should be putting wear and tear on his body battling too much inside until the roster is more developed around him.

I don't think he should be doing too much "battling inside" in general. He's never going to be a dominant low block guy. It's more about learning to use the mid/high post a little more, IMHO. That's less physically taxing on him and increases chances for improved draw rate and consistency, which is desirable.

He's doing great and he isn't playing on a good team, so patience should be a thing, for sure though.

He's 7'3" and has one of the highest FG% in the league from the RA. Suggesting he should be more of a mid/high post guy is crazy. He just turned 21. As he gets older and naturally puts on muscle, he absolutely can be (more) dominant in the low post.

[tsherkin]

He's 7'3" and has one of the highest FG% in the league from the RA. Suggesting he should be more of a mid/high post guy is crazy. He just turned 21. As he gets older and naturally puts on muscle, he absolutely can be (more) dominant in the low post.

This exhibits a lack of understand of how distribution of mass works. He has a very, very high center of gravity. The amount of challenge he'll have working in there is extreme. He can be cutting off ball, rolling off of screens and stuff, but his height isn't really a salient point here. Height alone isn't the only factor. Base matters.

And no, him adding mass won't help that issue at all unless he adds so much leg mass that he loses speed and over-stresses his knees.

It would be a fairly dim idea to try and turn him into a low-block guy for initiation of scoring possession.

What he knees to do is get to spaces which don't require huge physical exertion and don't rely on base strength he'll never have. Where he can use his height and mobility better to his advantage.

This isn't 1970, man. Being north of 7 feet doesn't mean INSTANT LOW POST. Nor should it.

[tmorgan]

I think it’d be fun if he tried developing into a high post passing hub ala peak Marc Gasol. Unlike Gasol, he’s one giant step from dunking the ball from there anyway, and after setting a pick, he’s still just a stride or two from his top of the key pop.

There’s just so many things you can potentially do with his skillset and feel. I have no idea what’s coming.

[ITYSL]

He's 7'3" and has one of the highest FG% in the league from the RA. Suggesting he should be more of a mid/high post guy is crazy. He just turned 21. As he gets older and naturally puts on muscle, he absolutely can be (more) dominant in the low post.

This exhibits a lack of understand of how distribution of mass works. He has a very, very high center of gravity. The amount of challenge he'll have working in there is extreme. He can be cutting off ball, rolling off of screens and stuff, but his height isn't really a salient point here. Height alone isn't the only factor. Base matters.

And no, him adding mass won't help that issue at all unless he adds so much leg mass that he loses speed and over-stresses his knees.

It would be a fairly dim idea to try and turn him into a low-block guy for initiation of scoring possession.

What he knees to do is get to spaces which don't require huge physical exertion and don't rely on base strength he'll never have. Where he can use his height and mobility better to his advantage.

This isn't 1970, man. Being north of 7 feet doesn't mean INSTANT LOW POST. Nor should it.

He's shooting 77% from the RA. That's better than nearly anyone in the league. He doesn't have to live there, but he certainly could be shooting more from the low post.

Nearly every 7-footer in the league today (2025, not 1970) shoots more from the RA than Wemby. Chicken legs Holmgren included. KP is really the only exception.

[dautjazz]

I said "about league average", as in approximately.

Awhoops! I read that as "above league average," wherefore my reply. xD

Wemby struggled at the beginning of the season, but since then he's averaged .380 from behind the arc over the last 29 games.

One hopes he will eventually shoot less, though, because it compromises other important parts of his game. It's still a relevant weapon, but his volume is a little insane right now.

I honestly don't watch him very much, so I don't know much about his shot selection, but atleast he's got one of the GOAT coaches early in his career, so I'm sure he'll learn to balance it out and continue to improve his efficiency.

[WestGOAT]

. He's not without his own involvement in their recent slump. On a team level, they're getting owned from 3 and having their worst defensive month so far overall. They're giving up something like 8.5 more points per game than any of the previous months and over 39% from 3. Drawing fewer fouls, forcing fewer turnovers, it isn't great. Of course, Wemby mostly IS their defense, so I'm sure he's overloaded on that end trying to bootstrap them as with last season.

Interesting to see that Spurs really have been struggling defensively lately, it does put a damper on his DPOY case, and on his perceived "GOAT"-level defensive impact.

I'm very curious to see his defensive on/off for this particular month. My impression is probably that his supporting squad is straight up poop, which doesn't bode well for the upcoming years. I thought Sochan was supposed to be a defensive stopper?

Anyway perhaps it's simply impossible for modern big-man to have Bill Russell like impact on defense with the way modern NBA offenses work. Imagine Wemby in the 60s where he wouldn't need to cover so much space.

[tsherkin]

Interesting to see that Spurs really have been struggling defensively lately, it does put a damper on his DPOY case, and on his perceived "GOAT"-level defensive impact.

Team sucks. One guy can do only so much. See Dikembe Mutombo in Denver and Atlanta. In his first DPOY season, Denver was 14th in the league on D, and the 98 Hawks were 13th. Both times, he had a DBPM < 2.0.

Raw team defense doesn't really do much to paint the picture of an individual's defensive utility if the rest of them are garbage.

Do remember that the Spurs were the worst defense in the league prior to drafting Wemby and haven't meaningfully improved their roster. They DID get 4 points better in rDRTG with him as a rookie and are another half point better than that this season, and that without changing much besides adding VW.

My impression is probably that his supporting squad is straight up poop, which doesn't bode well for the upcoming years.

That is the case.

I thought Sochan was supposed to be a defensive stopper?

Sure, he defends against San Antonio's offense very well any time he takes a shot outside the RA.

Anyway perhaps it's simply impossible for modern big-man to have Bill Russell like impact on defense with the way modern NBA offenses work.

Correct.

Imagine Wemby in the 60s where he wouldn't need to cover so much space.

He'd have shut down the league the way Russell did.

[tsherkin]

He's shooting 77% from the RA. That's better than nearly anyone in the league.

Scottie Barnes is within 2% of that, I wouldn't get too excited. Old Man Lebron is shooting 75.8% in the RA. Yes, Victor finishes well when he gets close.

Nearly every 7-footer in the league today (2025, not 1970) shoots more from the RA than Wemby. Chicken legs Holmgren included. KP is really the only exception.

Yes, but getting those shots doesn't typically start from a low-block iso, which is what we were discussing. Starting from the mid-post doesn't mean necessarily taking all of his shots from 10-15 feet, it means initiating the possession there so he can face up instead of grapple for position with his back to the basket. It leaves him open to face-up slashing attacks, which then get him close to the basket, where he can employ his length very effectively.

This is what I have been saying.

[WestGOAT]

Interesting to see that Spurs really have been struggling defensively lately, it does put a damper on his DPOY case, and on his perceived "GOAT"-level defensive impact.

Team sucks. One guy can do only so much. See Dikembe Mutombo in Denver and Atlanta. In his first DPOY season, Denver was 14th in the league on D, and the 98 Hawks were 13th. Both times, he had a DBPM < 2.0.

Don't really care about DBPM, even the creator stated to take it with a spoonful of salt. In Mutombo's case I'm pretty sure his 98 on/off with the Hawks are very very good if I recall correctly.

That's why I'm interested in seeing Wemby's defensive on/off. It will be kinda similar to KG, KG only really started to be accepted as a defensive anchor once he went to the Celtics and maintained his crazy defensive on/off while anchoring historic defences.

[tsherkin]

Don't really care about DBPM, even the creator stated to take it with a spoonful of salt. In Mutombo's case I'm pretty sure his 98 on/off with the Hawks are very very good if I recall correctly.

Yes, DBPM is very limited, it was just throw-in information. His on/off WAS quite good in 98. Less so in 97 in terms of raw on/off.

But:

Opp ORTG on/off
97: -10.3
98: -14.1

Wemby this year: -7.6

[ITYSL]

Scottie Barnes is within 2% of that, I wouldn't get too excited. Old Man Lebron is shooting 75.8% in the RA. Yes, Victor finishes well when he gets close.

Yep. So he should shoot more from there. This is all that I've been saying.

Not sure where you're getting your numbers from. Wemby is shooting 77% from the RA. Lebron is 73%, Barnes is 72%. That's not within 2% of Wemby. And besides, we're talking about Wemby, not Barnes or Lebron.

Nearly every 7-footer in the league today (2025, not 1970) shoots more from the RA than Wemby. Chicken legs Holmgren included. KP is really the only exception.

Yes, but getting those shots doesn't typically start from a low-block iso, which is what we were discussing. Starting from the mid-post doesn't mean necessarily taking all of his shots from 10-15 feet, it means initiating the possession there so he can face up instead of grapple for position with his back to the basket. It leaves him open to face-up slashing attacks, which then get him close to the basket, where he can employ his length very effectively.

This is what I have been saying.

All I initially said was that he should score from inside a bit more, which is not that controversial an opinion. I never said he should be posting in the low block with his back to the basket every possession.

[tsherkin]

Yep. So he should shoot more from there. This is all that I've been saying.

Sure, but you were arguing with me when I said he shouldn't be a low post guy.

Perhaps you didn't understand that I didn't mean he shouldn't get shots in the RA, but as I explained a couple times, we're talking about where he INITIATES the possession.

Not sure where you're getting your numbers from. Wemby is shooting 77% from the RA. Lebron is 73%, Barnes is 72%. That's not within 2% of Wemby. And besides, we're talking about Wemby, not Barnes or Lebron.

It's relevant. You're talking about Wemby relative to other players. His FG% from 0-3 is easily available on b-ref, as it is for all players. THat's what I was quoting.

All I initially said was that he should score from inside a bit more, which is not that controversial an opinion. I never said he should be posting in the low block with his back to the basket every possession.

Then that's a phrasing issue on your part because you specifically said "pounding it inside," which is most commonly used to describe low post isolations.

[SkyBill40]

Now he's complaining about a lack of calls and "respect" from officials. Dude, you're in your SECOND season and it doesn't matter what your name is or how much league draw you have at this point. You're still new. You have to earn that respect and those calls.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/43619980/spurs-victor-wembanyama-says-refs-lack-calls-feels-unfair

[WestGOAT]

Don't really care about DBPM, even the creator stated to take it with a spoonful of salt. In Mutombo's case I'm pretty sure his 98 on/off with the Hawks are very very good if I recall correctly.

Yes, DBPM is very limited, it was just throw-in information. His on/off WAS quite good in 98. Less so in 97 in terms of raw on/off.

But:

Opp ORTG on/off
97: -10.3
98: -14.1

Wemby this year: -7.6

Makes me wonder what kind of defensive on/off Wemby will manage at his peak.

Mutombo's Def on/off is actually way more impressive than the raw stats suggest. If you scale using league average ORtg it looks even better considering the league average ORtg back in the '97 and '98 is much lower than nowadays.

[tsherkin]

Makes me wonder what kind of defensive on/off Wemby will manage at his peak.

Mutombo's Def on/off is actually way more impressive than the raw stats suggest. If you scale using league average ORtg it looks even better considering the league average ORtg back in the '97 and '98 is much lower than nowadays.

Deke was great, for sure. And yes, Wemby will be very interesting in his prime.

[OriAr]

I am very concerned.
Concerned for the other 29 teams.

[Rust_Cohle]

Fantastic game from him tonight, a filthy 30 points, 14 rebounds and 6 blocks. Quite a few of them on giannis too. He had one on Dame that I don’t think I had ever seen before from so high on the glass. DPOY is locked and it feels like he’s taking a smarter amount of 3’s

[zimpy27]

I am very concerned.
Concerned for the other 29 teams.

Might be the 29th time I've seen this comment

[Bornstellar]

Now he's complaining about a lack of calls and "respect" from officials. Dude, you're in your SECOND season and it doesn't matter what your name is or how much league draw you have at this point. You're still new. You have to earn that respect and those calls.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/43619980/spurs-victor-wembanyama-says-refs-lack-calls-feels-unfair

Nah that's BS. A foul should be a foul no matter who it is