nate33 wrote:I am by no means writing Bub off, but I'm not particularly convinced by the argument that rookie Bub being statistically better than rookie Deni is proof that veteran Bub will pan out better than veteran Deni.
I don't agree with the argument because rookie Deni was already very good at certain intrinsic NBA qualities (size, strength, speed, defensive reflexes, basketball IQ) that are difficult or impossible to improve. His weaknesses (shooting, left hand, offensive aggressiveness) were things that generally improve if you work at it. It was easy to imagine him having a very high ceiling if his shot improved. It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Deni peaks as a fringe all star player.
Bub is sort of the opposite. He is an average NBA athlete and he lacks innate explosion or shiftiness. And he's not really going to get much better at that. The things one generally improves upon (shooting, ball-handling) he is already good at, which suggests that there's less room for significant improvement. That doesn't mean he can't be a quality starter, but I think it's highly doubtful that he pans out as an All-Star or fringe All-Star. I'm not hating. There's nothing wrong with a quality starter, or even a quality rotation player - particularly in this lousy draft. I'm just saying I think his ceiling is lower than rookie Deni even though his rookie stats are better.
Sure it is more rare that a player can guard 1-4 than that a PG is a good shooter and passer. That said the knock on Bub is pretty much the same as the knocks on Deni. As are many of the pros. Bub is big for a 1G. Strong for his position, as evidenced in his rebounding. Basketball IQ is high. Both he and Deni had difficulty finishing down low. Though that is more of a primary function for a Forward than a guard, so Deni was further behind for his position. That said guards do commonly add low post play as they get bigger and stronger, which is a near certainty for Bub. The bigger and stronger part anyway.
Both have been noted for being passive, a weakness that with Bub may improve as he gains strength. As it did with Deni.
Deni was also a pretty poor FT shooter, which did not bode well for his ability to add an outside shot. Bub is ahead in this metric but improvements in his 3pt range & reliability would increase his utility more than it would for a forward.
Neither could be called an above the rim player, Deni is fast in the open court for his size but has never been a quick-twitch phenom in dribble-attack and last step explosiveness. That said 'shiftiness' absolutely is a skillset that guards in particular improve on with experience, and this is where I think Bub's high IQ will play out over time. Where I expect him to learn to read defenses and mislead them to get himself and teammates open. If he ever gets mentioned in all-star talk it will be because of this. Where Brunson and Van Vleet and Lowry made their bones.
This also is an area where Deni showed flashes early. His passing was notable for a rookie 3/4. Bode well for his team game as he matured. But Bub is ahead of him here too, a primary function of his job. You'd expect that, the same way you'd expect a forward to rebound better. Defense is such a function of team play, I think it is harder to rate what Bub may become in this way, but defense is actually one of the skills that does reliably improve from rookies to veterans. You need a scheme, familiarity with your teammates, good coaching, etc, but commonly defensive rebounding and assists translate to Defense over time. He's long armed and aware, can improve on his speed and anticipation. Hard to say what his upside is as a defender.
I will agree that it would be difficult to expect Bub surpasses Deni. Deni made a significant leap between when Rui was traded to clear space for him and when this front office came in with clear goals for him to improve on. Deni did the work, but it showed up on court. Bub does have to share the position with Poole and Brogdon, but starts out with a developmental team tracking his progress in a way Deni never seemed to until late.
Hard to say that any player becomes an all star. Fringe or otherwise. I doubt Bub does. There's too much competition for the spot in an era where everybody wants to be a shooter. The question is what is their relative value. Deni is an advanced defender. Bub is ahead of the game as a passer and shooter. And by all accounts leadership, if he can grow into it. Which position has more benefit on court? I think it can be argued that a high level ballhandling guard can have more effect on a team's success than a top defender at any position other than Center. You can force a switch to a lesser defender, but a game manager and captain on the floor can impose their will on a game.
Either way, it's still fair to compare their early stats and project ahead to who they become. Or at least more fair than to write off Bub since he's not as good as this version of Deni -- who is playing better than he ever has in his entire career.
I think the more fair question is: Do we get more value over Bub's rookie contract than we did out of Deni's? I bet we do since Deni was upsy downsy with us and constantly benched in favor of Hachimura or Kuzma due to body language issues or taking himself out of games by complaining about the refs. That at least seems to be an area where Bub is ahead. I don't see him complain about anything ever. Even this intentional septic tank of a season.
