2024-25 Season Discussion and Speculation Part III

[sunskerr]

I know people say Ishbia is not stupid, must be smart because he built up a company etc., but like, everything he's done here suggests...maybe not?

You can also often times just fail upwards in business if you have the right connections/family. That being said I don't particularly care to investigate his background.

But if I knew nothing about this guy and was working in the front office, I'd probably think he was kind of a moron.

But hey win a championship with this group of players I'll put a picture of him at my bedside.

Also Bradley Beal should get his jersey retired if this team gets blown up over the summer. And next year he can take 52 shots per game.

Also, I don't know how much people here know about finance, and real estate, and mortgages, but there was the first real estate huge bubble in years, because lenders were giving everyone mortgages, even people with bad credit, no credit, etc, and they were selling these mortgages to brokerage houses which were lumping them into huge mutual type fund investments they called "mortgage backed securities" which sounds great, and then people bought these funds thinking they were valuable.

Real estate prices kept going up hand over fist in the early 2000s because of this. I worked with people who made like $40K and were buy 2 or 3 houses to rent thinking housing will double in price every few years...

Anyway, I could get into the details of why it busted, but it was unsustainable and people simply did not make enough at their jobs to pay their mortgages. They had kept afloat by refinancing their houses and taking more loans against them.

Anyway, there is a movie called The Big Short that is very good and goes into this.

And I understand I am probably telling most people here things they already know, but in that climate, it would have been very easy to build a mortgage company with the timing.

It would be like some guy investing in tech stocks in 97 and then having to sell everything in January of 2000 and everyone calling him a genius. No, he was lucky. It was a huge overpriced bubble that crushed multiple peoples riches within a few months starting in March and went on for years before recovering.

The way Ish tries to build the Suns kind of reminds me of these bubbles.

This is a really good post and I love that comparison at the end you did with how Ishbia builds a team. It's WEIRD he just strolls in and starts making moves like that. There's definitely an ego and overconfidence perhaps coming from his background where he had success.

I'll check out that movie. Not much of a finance guy even though I do enjoy economic history every now and then so it should be a good watch.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Great trade for Nurkic. It's rather just attach to a Book trade in the summer, should it happen. This would be fine though. Get Kolek who can maybe be PGOTF and Mitch.

This trade makes sense to me more than Bogdanovich from Hawks

Suns just need to move on from Butler

I'd probably do it solely to get Kolek. I fully expect Mitch Rob to give us no more than a season high of maybe a dozen games

Worst-case scenario, Maybe? But as a backup to Richards would we really need too much more than that as he's also set to become an expiring this summer the same as Nurkic, but at least he'd be a center we might play in matchup-specific situations, and without any concerns of long-term commitment. And again, that's the very worst-case scenario. So all things considered, still a much better value exchange than the idiotic premise of trading Nurkic for Shamet 2.0 (currently) at nearly $18 million dollars on top of Beals' $50 million. So we'd be giving up a 1st to tie up close to 70 million in our SG position with one of those players being currently terrible for their singular role, and the other dramatically underperforming while being immovable on a max contract!

[Ghost of Kleine]

Sometimes a change of scenery breeds more positive value than what the trade is on paper

I’m not going to argue the change of scenery thing.

My point is, this whole roster is combo guards. Booker, Beal, O’Neal, Allen, Dunn to a degree. Now you add another player to the same group. Just makes no sense. We have 4 centers and a bunch of combo guards and a PG. jones has never accomplished a balanced roster since he has been here.

We will have redundancy yes, but it also makes Allen more tradeable and because he's a positive asset, we could improve in one of our other positions without losing much in the back court.

Sure! That's a very fair argument and astute observation. But clearly, IF Alleen is a positive asset (and I agree with you that he is), It's simply not necessary to take an asset value loss on a worse ovrpaid player at that position just to dump Nurkic! You could just as easily hold Nurkic and still trade Allen for a good return! Nurkics' value and trade possibilities being completely detached from Nurkic premises regardless.

And honestly, trying to legitimize doing a horrible trade by framing the thought process as being that Allen is a positive trade asset that can be moved but couldn't somehow before, even without trading Nurkic and in the process downgrading production and efficiency at that same position, and for a more expensive salary while giving up an asset for the privilege of paying more for a worse player so you can trade a better player at the very same position is just absurd logic.

Nurkic can just as easily be traded elsewhere for a much better return or better fit for our needs coming back. And Allen could still be traded in a deal regardless of whether we do anything or nothing towards trading Nurkic.

[Slim Charless]

I know people say Ishbia is not stupid, must be smart because he built up a company etc., but like, everything he's done here suggests...maybe not?

You can also often times just fail upwards in business if you have the right connections/family. That being said I don't particularly care to investigate his background.

But if I knew nothing about this guy and was working in the front office, I'd probably think he was kind of a moron.

But hey win a championship with this group of players I'll put a picture of him at my bedside.

Also Bradley Beal should get his jersey retired if this team gets blown up over the summer. And next year he can take 52 shots per game.

Also, I don't know how much people here know about finance, and real estate, and mortgages, but there was the first real estate huge bubble in years, because lenders were giving everyone mortgages, even people with bad credit, no credit, etc, and they were selling these mortgages to brokerage houses which were lumping them into huge mutual type fund investments they called "mortgage backed securities" which sounds great, and then people bought these funds thinking they were valuable.

Real estate prices kept going up hand over fist in the early 2000s because of this. I worked with people who made like $40K and were buy 2 or 3 houses to rent thinking housing will double in price every few years...

Anyway, I could get into the details of why it busted, but it was unsustainable and people simply did not make enough at their jobs to pay their mortgages. They had kept afloat by refinancing their houses and taking more loans against them.

Anyway, there is a movie called The Big Short that is very good and goes into this.

And I understand I am probably telling most people here things they already know, but in that climate, it would have been very easy to build a mortgage company with the timing.

It would be like some guy investing in tech stocks in 97 and then having to sell everything in January of 2000 and everyone calling him a genius. No, he was lucky. It was a huge overpriced bubble that crushed multiple peoples riches within a few months starting in March and went on for years before recovering.

The way Ish tries to build the Suns kind of reminds me of these bubbles.

This is a really good post and I love that comparison at the end you did with how Ishbia builds a team. It's WEIRD he just strolls in and starts making moves like that. There's definitely an ego and overconfidence perhaps coming from his background where he had success.

I'll check out that movie. Not much of a finance guy even though I do enjoy economic history every now and then so it should be a good watch.

That movie is 1 of my all time favorites. Bar none. It explains the American housing crisis and related crash absolutely perfectly. Very easy to understand and in an extremely entertaining way. It 1000% should've won the Oscar that year. Couldn't recommend a movie more.

Also I will be buying Beal's jersey if this stalemate can lead us to getting a haul from Houston or Toronto or whomever for Booker/KD. Mentioned that before and wasn't remotely joking lol. I'll post the pictures on here if this all happens.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Qwigglez]

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Doesn't Booker always get snubbed? He only makes it because someone else gets injured.

[bwgood77]

Well Butler took the Heat on his shoulders in recent memory.

Riley hasn't done **** since Wade/LeBron.

You always talk about other teams or players not doing **** as if the Suns or Ish or Booker or whoever has. Riley got to the finals twice in the last 5 years. If that isn't much, well the Suns have done less. You mention Beal being a loser but he went to the 2nd round 3 times prior to the Suns, and then even with a rebuilding team and an over the hill Westbrook, led them back to the playoffs after missing a lot of the prior season with injury, scoring over 31ppg, 2nd in the NBA. Book has made the 2nd round 3x as well but had Chris Paul each of those years, including KD with 1. Before Paul, we know how successful our team was. Beal never had sub 30 win seasons like we did those years except one year where he missedd 40 games, and it was shortened season and they won 25.

Just stating the facts but you can cherry pick. Rily could have extended Butler and we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

However he decided to play hardball and now Ishbia wants Butler.

He just decided he wasn't sure he wanted to extend a 36 year old Butler for 2 years when he is often injured and just missed the playoffs injured and thinks utilizing that cap space for a pursuit of Luka (or JJJ or other 26 free agents) is smart.

I think it's smart too actually. Especially if he can find a dumb team to take Butler while getting picks, prospects, etc, and being able to clear that space. Chances are they won't get a superstar with that cap space, but they've done it before...and will have options.

[bwgood77]

I know people say Ishbia is not stupid, must be smart because he built up a company etc., but like, everything he's done here suggests...maybe not?

You can also often times just fail upwards in business if you have the right connections/family. That being said I don't particularly care to investigate his background.

But if I knew nothing about this guy and was working in the front office, I'd probably think he was kind of a moron.

But hey win a championship with this group of players I'll put a picture of him at my bedside.

Also Bradley Beal should get his jersey retired if this team gets blown up over the summer. And next year he can take 52 shots per game.

Also, I don't know how much people here know about finance, and real estate, and mortgages, but there was the first real estate huge bubble in years, because lenders were giving everyone mortgages, even people with bad credit, no credit, etc, and they were selling these mortgages to brokerage houses which were lumping them into huge mutual type fund investments they called "mortgage backed securities" which sounds great, and then people bought these funds thinking they were valuable.

Real estate prices kept going up hand over fist in the early 2000s because of this. I worked with people who made like $40K and were buy 2 or 3 houses to rent thinking housing will double in price every few years...

Anyway, I could get into the details of why it busted, but it was unsustainable and people simply did not make enough at their jobs to pay their mortgages. They had kept afloat by refinancing their houses and taking more loans against them.

Anyway, there is a movie called The Big Short that is very good and goes into this.

And I understand I am probably telling most people here things they already know, but in that climate, it would have been very easy to build a mortgage company with the timing.

It would be like some guy investing in tech stocks in 97 and then having to sell everything in January of 2000 and everyone calling him a genius. No, he was lucky. It was a huge overpriced bubble that crushed multiple peoples riches within a few months starting in March and went on for years before recovering.

The way Ish tries to build the Suns kind of reminds me of these bubbles.

This is a really good post and I love that comparison at the end you did with how Ishbia builds a team. It's WEIRD he just strolls in and starts making moves like that. There's definitely an ego and overconfidence perhaps coming from his background where he had success.

I'll check out that movie. Not much of a finance guy even though I do enjoy economic history every now and then so it should be a good watch.

Just look at the cast....great great watch. My favorite movie that year. Has a good sense of humor too. I should rewatch it. Only watched once but the cast is loaded.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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Doesn't Booker always get snubbed? He only makes it because someone else gets injured.

Pretty much.......Yeah!

[Mulhollanddrive]

Traded for Amen Thompson or All Star?

[bigfoot]

I know people say Ishbia is not stupid, must be smart because he built up a company etc., but like, everything he's done here suggests...maybe not?

You can also often times just fail upwards in business if you have the right connections/family. That being said I don't particularly care to investigate his background.

But if I knew nothing about this guy and was working in the front office, I'd probably think he was kind of a moron.

But hey win a championship with this group of players I'll put a picture of him at my bedside.

Also Bradley Beal should get his jersey retired if this team gets blown up over the summer. And next year he can take 52 shots per game.

Also, I don't know how much people here know about finance, and real estate, and mortgages, but there was the first real estate huge bubble in years, because lenders were giving everyone mortgages, even people with bad credit, no credit, etc, and they were selling these mortgages to brokerage houses which were lumping them into huge mutual type fund investments they called "mortgage backed securities" which sounds great, and then people bought these funds thinking they were valuable.

Real estate prices kept going up hand over fist in the early 2000s because of this. I worked with people who made like $40K and were buy 2 or 3 houses to rent thinking housing will double in price every few years...

Anyway, I could get into the details of why it busted, but it was unsustainable and people simply did not make enough at their jobs to pay their mortgages. They had kept afloat by refinancing their houses and taking more loans against them.

Anyway, there is a movie called The Big Short that is very good and goes into this.

And I understand I am probably telling most people here things they already know, but in that climate, it would have been very easy to build a mortgage company with the timing.

It would be like some guy investing in tech stocks in 97 and then having to sell everything in January of 2000 and everyone calling him a genius. No, he was lucky. It was a huge overpriced bubble that crushed multiple peoples riches within a few months starting in March and went on for years before recovering.

The way Ish tries to build the Suns kind of reminds me of these bubbles.

This is a really good post and I love that comparison at the end you did with how Ishbia builds a team. It's WEIRD he just strolls in and starts making moves like that. There's definitely an ego and overconfidence perhaps coming from his background where he had success.

I'll check out that movie. Not much of a finance guy even though I do enjoy economic history every now and then so it should be a good watch.

It's funny but Ishbia's company UWM (around since 1986) didn't offer subprime loans before the 2008 crash. They knew they were too risky and that's why they both survived and thrived after the bubble. Going from a no-name mortgage lender to the largest whole mortgage lender in 15 years obviously took some talent and hard work. I imagine Ishbia is in fat city right now as far as his mortgage company goes. Being the largest company, he is primed to make bank ... refinancing recent mortgages at the 7% rate to lower rates is easy money. Every time the fed drops interest rates he's dreaming of the next big NBA free agent he can get. FYI, he is worth more than Mark Cuban. This guys' net worth in 2021 was $1 billion and it's $10 billion four year later. That's a pretty impressive rate of return. He'll have a $200 million luxury tax bill this season which is just a business loss lowering his overall tax burden from his real money making company. In 20 years, when he is ready to sell the Suns he will make a nice tidy profit. It's a pretty stark contrast to Sarver who would hold pennies in his butt crack with an iron grip.

Whether his money or leadership/ownership takes the Suns to promise land is TBD. He has shown he's willing to pay for free agents and the luxury tax. I believe when the rebuild time is at hand he will acquire and buy draft picks as needed. Booker, Durant, Grayson, and Royce all have value and could be used to acquire of lot of draft capital in the next few years.

As for this season, things don't really count until the playoffs start. So long as they are in the mix and playing their best in April/May/June, anything could happen since most of you never saw the 75/76 Suns.

[mkot]

Traded for Amen Thompson or All Star?

The Houston Rockets are not giving up their Amen

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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[TeamTragic]

Kings want Castle for Fox. That deal is dead

[SunsRback4Good]

Kings want Castle for Fox. That deal is dead

[garrick]

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I just recently was having such a discussion on this with someone on this board! And ironically regarding the same points being made here by others. If giving up one of our very last remaining assets, why do it for positional redundancy? Why not actually look to address positions of need over positions we already have very expensive depth at? These decisions are looking more and more asinine cumulatively as wee go forward!

And I said for Allen and a 1st, it wasn't worth it .

If you can get a deal done while dropping a negative asset in Nurk, that is very clearly a different deal from trading a positive asset in Allen.

But moving Nurkic at the expense of dumping one of our very few remaining firsts isn't even necessary! He'd have value as an expiring this summer! You're necessarily giving up assets to move a player you weren't even playing anyways, and for another overpaid player who's dramatically underperforming and is redundant at that position already! It's an egregious waste of our already very limited assets for a player that is not at all a need for us!

At least with my trade proposal, it's reducing further redundancy, reducing long-term term cost commitment, AND adding size, frontcourt floor spacing, and versatility that we currently do not have with any of Richards, Plumlee, or Ighodaro all not being able to space the floor, etc. And adding significant rebounding, defense, and transition scoring/playmaking potency too with Mogbo!
(As indicated by the links/tweets/ articles that I shared with you in our discussion. Easily a much better value cumulative return than dumping a 1st to swap a soon-to-be expiring for another shooting guard who's making big money, but also can't even shoot which his entire value is predicated upon!

You're dumping value just to add redundancy while not at all fixing or addressing our very obvious issues in the process. So regardless of your subjective assessment of value, this trade is significantly worse for a number of reasons that I mentioned above!

If surrendering a 1st, there are easily much better and more logical Nurkic trades than this that would at least address some critical needs which my proposal said from your individual value assessment still obviously does by comparison man.

Hard pass on sending out any of our 1st round picks but I would be open to shipping out that last remaining 2nd if it means we can move off of Nurk.

[sunskerr]

Kings want Castle for Fox. That deal is dead

To be honest they have every right to ask for Castle. Fox is a really nice player, 27 years old, and a great fit with Wemby who takes a million threes per game.

Castle is a great prospect himself so it sort of makes sense. Probably the only prospect on that roster that makes sense to include for Fox, especially if the kings are actually hitting full reset.

Vassell+filler probably gets laughed off the phone. Maybe there are other prospects I'm forgetting on the Spurs but I can't see anything getting done without Castle.

[Frank Lee]

Those picks were acquired for trading, if not this week, then this summer.


Beal and Butler may be the two most difficult dudes to deal.