Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[cmoss84]

Do Ya"ll value Jaden or Fox higher?

[wolves_89]

Do Ya"ll value Jaden or Fox higher?

That's an interesting question. Over the next 5 years Jaden will be making $23/25/27/29/30M during the middle of his basketball prime. Fox will make something like $34/37/51/55/59/64M over the next 6 years that are his later prime and probably 1-2 years beyond his prime. Fox is the better player, but I don't think he's going to be worth double what Jaden makes. I would also worry that because Fox's game is heavily based on athleticsm, the last couple of years of his contract extension could be a real problem.

[TaylorTag]

I just tried this trade that worked in the trade machine:

Wolves In: Cam Johnson, D’Anthony Melton
Wolves Out: Randle

Brooklyn In: Jimmy Butler, (picks)
Brooklyn Out: Johnson, Melton

Miami In: Randle
Miami Out: Butler

[Domejandro]

There are theoretically other pathways financially of getting De'Arron Fox without Jaden McDaniels being included, but I don't think folks would be particularly thrilled to hear them.

Julius Randle, Donte DiVencenzo, and Rob Dillingham give Minnesota just enough space under the Second Apron ($1.9MM) to sign two rookie minimum players.

Julius Randle, Mike Conley, and Rob Dillingham is slightly off, but adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes it possible to get De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin, while having enough space to sign a couple rookie minimums.


If Minnesota was actually in the race (I doubt it), I would expect something like...

MIN: De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin
OUT: Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Detroit's 2025 First Round Draft Pick

De'Arron Fox / Jordan McLaughlin
Anthony Edwards / Donte DiVencenzo
Jaden McDaniels / Jaylen Clark / Terrence Shannon Jr.
Naz Reid / Josh Minott / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Luka Garza / Leonard Miller

+Two minimum players

Obviously other scenarios (Naz Reid) exist, but just offering folks a bit of insight on what a De'Arron Fox trade would probably actually look like. That said, I am 99.9% sure that De'Arron Fox is heading to San Antonio and this is all fluff.

[winforlose]

There are theoretically other pathways financially of getting De'Arron Fox without Jaden McDaniels being included, but I don't think folks would be particularly thrilled to hear them.

Julius Randle, Donte DiVencenzo, and Rob Dillingham give Minnesota just enough space under the Second Apron ($1.9MM) to sign two rookie minimum players.

Julius Randle, Mike Conley, and Rob Dillingham is slightly off, but adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes it possible to get De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin, while having enough space to sign a couple rookie minimums.


If Minnesota was actually in the race (I doubt it), I would expect something like...

MIN: De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin
OUT: Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Detroit's 2025 First Round Draft Pick

De'Arron Fox / Jordan McLaughlin
Anthony Edwards / Donte DiVencenzo
Jaden McDaniels / Jaylen Clark / Terrence Shannon Jr.
Naz Reid / Josh Minott / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Luka Garza / Leonard Miller

+Two minimum players

Obviously other scenarios (Naz Reid) exist, but just offering folks a bit of insight on what a De'Arron Fox trade would probably actually look like. That said, I am 99.9% sure that De'Arron Fox is heading to San Antonio and this is all fluff.

I think there is disconnect between my understanding of the rules and yours. Let’s try and clarify for the discussion. My understanding is you cannot aggregate once over the 2nd apron even if the trade takes you under the 2nd apron. You must make a separate move first to get under and then you can aggregate but as a result are hard capped below. Your understanding suggests you can aggregate above the 2nd apron, so long as you end below. Which is correct?

[ILC]

There are theoretically other pathways financially of getting De'Arron Fox without Jaden McDaniels being included, but I don't think folks would be particularly thrilled to hear them.

Julius Randle, Donte DiVencenzo, and Rob Dillingham give Minnesota just enough space under the Second Apron ($1.9MM) to sign two rookie minimum players.

Julius Randle, Mike Conley, and Rob Dillingham is slightly off, but adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes it possible to get De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin, while having enough space to sign a couple rookie minimums.


If Minnesota was actually in the race (I doubt it), I would expect something like...

MIN: De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin
OUT: Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Detroit's 2025 First Round Draft Pick

De'Arron Fox / Jordan McLaughlin
Anthony Edwards / Donte DiVencenzo
Jaden McDaniels / Jaylen Clark / Terrence Shannon Jr.
Naz Reid / Josh Minott / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Luka Garza / Leonard Miller

+Two minimum players

Obviously other scenarios (Naz Reid) exist, but just offering folks a bit of insight on what a De'Arron Fox trade would probably actually look like. That said, I am 99.9% sure that De'Arron Fox is heading to San Antonio and this is all fluff.

I think there is disconnect between my understanding of the rules and yours. Let’s try and clarify for the discussion. My understanding is you cannot aggregate once over the 2nd apron even if the trade takes you under the 2nd apron. You must make a separate move first to get under and then you can aggregate but as a result are hard capped below. Your understanding suggests you can aggregate above the 2nd apron, so long as you end below. Which is correct?

Yes that is correct. As long as the trade gets you under the 2nd apron you can aggregate salaries in it.

But this specific trade by Dome above doesn't work because the Kings would become a 2nd apron team after it, at least the fanspo trade machine says so.

"Kings are unable to complete this trade. Since they are now an over second apron team after this trade, they are only able to take back 100% of the salary they are sending out, plus $0.

Kings can only take back $36.9M in salary based on the amount they are sending out.

Cut $7.4M from the Kings incoming trade value to make this trade successful for the Kings."

The only way I could see Fox in MIN is if he doesn't get traded until the summer, Randle opts in and you can talk NAW into a S&T where you get some assets for him and send them with Randle, Rob, Det 1st to SAC for Fox. And Kings will likely have much better offers then than that.

[Domejandro]

There are theoretically other pathways financially of getting De'Arron Fox without Jaden McDaniels being included, but I don't think folks would be particularly thrilled to hear them.

Julius Randle, Donte DiVencenzo, and Rob Dillingham give Minnesota just enough space under the Second Apron ($1.9MM) to sign two rookie minimum players.

Julius Randle, Mike Conley, and Rob Dillingham is slightly off, but adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes it possible to get De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin, while having enough space to sign a couple rookie minimums.


If Minnesota was actually in the race (I doubt it), I would expect something like...

MIN: De'Arron Fox and Jordan McLaughlin
OUT: Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Detroit's 2025 First Round Draft Pick

De'Arron Fox / Jordan McLaughlin
Anthony Edwards / Donte DiVencenzo
Jaden McDaniels / Jaylen Clark / Terrence Shannon Jr.
Naz Reid / Josh Minott / Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert / Luka Garza / Leonard Miller

+Two minimum players

Obviously other scenarios (Naz Reid) exist, but just offering folks a bit of insight on what a De'Arron Fox trade would probably actually look like. That said, I am 99.9% sure that De'Arron Fox is heading to San Antonio and this is all fluff.

I think there is disconnect between my understanding of the rules and yours. Let’s try and clarify for the discussion. My understanding is you cannot aggregate once over the 2nd apron even if the trade takes you under the 2nd apron. You must make a separate move first to get under and then you can aggregate but as a result are hard capped below. Your understanding suggests you can aggregate above the 2nd apron, so long as you end below. Which is correct?

Yes that is correct. As long as the trade gets you under the 2nd apron you can aggregate salaries in it.

But this specific trade by Dome above doesn't work because the Kings would become a 2nd apron team after it, at least the fanspo trade machine says so.

"Kings are unable to complete this trade. Since they are now an over second apron team after this trade, they are only able to take back 100% of the salary they are sending out, plus $0.

Kings can only take back $36.9M in salary based on the amount they are sending out.

Cut $7.4M from the Kings incoming trade value to make this trade successful for the Kings."

The only way I could see Fox in MIN is if he doesn't get traded until the summer, Randle opts in and you can talk NAW into a S&T where you get some assets for him and send them with Randle, Rob, Det 1st to SAC for Fox. And Kings will likely have much better offers then than that.

FWIW, the unwritten suggestion is that other teams would be involved, particularly regarding the Mike Conley portion. Detroit has $14,016,669 in pure cap space, so they could easily operate as a third or fourth party (either for a roleplayer they want, or eating salary in exchange for their first back).

[shrink]

Minnesota would need to trade Randle first…probably for space and then trade McDaniels for Fox and other parts.

Timberwolves can’t combine Randle and McDaniels in a trade. I’m assuming Kings are interested in McDaniels.

They can’t aggregate salaries .. IF the deal concludes with team payroll over the second apron.

While we call ourselves a second apron team, the determination of what is legal is made after a trade is completed, not before. In a scenario where Randle and McDaniels went out, if after the trade they landed under the threshold for the second apron, then salary aggregation would be allowed. And the reason we would send them both out is to duck that threshold anyway.

[younggunsmn]

I hope Jimmy Butler ends up on the 12=36 Pelicans it would be hilarious to watch that soap opera.

Would not make sense for this year, but when he opts in next summer all of a sudden you have a semi-valuable trade chip instead of an expired Brandon Ingram's bird rights and you are able to move that salary slot forward.

It makes a lot more sense than most other things being discussed like any team in their right mind taking on Bradley Beal's contract.

[shrink]

I only see two UFA, NAW & Jingles. Do you think Naz or Randle will decline their player options?

Both seem to be likely to do so, or at least that's the rumblings I've been hearing all season. They are both potential free agents though, hence being part of the trifecta.

I think we can convince Naz to opt in. We have his bird rights and can give him a better contract next time. Or in the alternative if he wants more security from injury we can have him opt out and get a smaller pay raise with 2 year deal with a player option second year. Either way Naz can be cost controlled next year if we need it. That means NAW and Randle are the wild cards. If Randle is still here after the deadline I expect him to opt in. NAW might be expensive, but we can always trade him for less money back 3 months later.

I expect both to opt out, especially Naz. Teams put player options on bargain deals to sweeten them for the player, to act as insurance in case they have a severe injury. It doesn’t particularly matter though, since we’ll clearly pay to keep Naz, and with his Bird rights, we can pay whatever we want. He deserves to be paid more, and we can start that next year.

[shrink]

Do Ya"ll value Jaden or Fox higher?

I think it’s an interesting question too, and I’m struggling to try to make a fair representation of three choices ..

Which would you like to see going forward for the Wolves, with roughly the same money?

1. Stop before KAT trade. We have KAT on the supermax, but don’t re-sign Naz or NAW

2. Stop where we are now. No KAT, but we have DDV, Naz and NAW

3. Do a Fox trade. No Jaden or Naz, but we have Fox, DDV and NAW.


Note, I don’t have time to run the math, so people are welcome to tell me how to edit it later tonight. I think MIN tries to keep Naz regardless, but I’m trying to express that if the owners will only pay a specific, equal amount, which direction do you like best?

[shrink]

For me, I have a hard time seeing which is the right course. I agree Fox is the better player, but he is about to get paid big bucks. Jaden is good, and leaves financial room for another equivalent player. I’d also mention that you win championships with elite players, so overpaying for elite talent is a legitimate direction, but how elite is Fox? Also, bringing in Fox definitely reduces our problem with Ant’s playmaking, but this is also an area that he could grow into to be a superstar.

Tough call for me here.

[Norseman79]

Randle's injury a legit thing or being precautionary before trade deadline?

[winforlose]

Both seem to be likely to do so, or at least that's the rumblings I've been hearing all season. They are both potential free agents though, hence being part of the trifecta.

I think we can convince Naz to opt in. We have his bird rights and can give him a better contract next time. Or in the alternative if he wants more security from injury we can have him opt out and get a smaller pay raise with 2 year deal with a player option second year. Either way Naz can be cost controlled next year if we need it. That means NAW and Randle are the wild cards. If Randle is still here after the deadline I expect him to opt in. NAW might be expensive, but we can always trade him for less money back 3 months later.

I expect both to opt out, especially Naz. Teams put player options on bargain deals to sweeten them for the player, to act as insurance in case they have a severe injury. It doesn’t particularly matter though, since we’ll clearly pay to keep Naz, and with his Bird rights, we can pay whatever we want. He deserves to be paid more, and we can start that next year.

I think you misunderstood. Say Naz is in line for 4 for 100. Now pretend we go to Naz and say we want to pay 100 over 4 years but could use some help from you. So instead of paying you 25 this year can we pay you 17.5? We will give you a player option the following season and a promise not to trade you. Then you opt out and we give your 3 for 75 plus we add in the 7.5 you were willing to not take last year. So instead of 3 for 75 we give him 3 for 82.5. Naz loses no money, but delays the pay raise long enough to keep NAW and deal with Randle.

[Neeva]

I am happy with Jaden/Rob and Naz thank you, Fox is a nice player offensively but that’s it..

[BlacJacMac]

I think we can convince Naz to opt in. We have his bird rights and can give him a better contract next time. Or in the alternative if he wants more security from injury we can have him opt out and get a smaller pay raise with 2 year deal with a player option second year. Either way Naz can be cost controlled next year if we need it. That means NAW and Randle are the wild cards. If Randle is still here after the deadline I expect him to opt in. NAW might be expensive, but we can always trade him for less money back 3 months later.

I expect both to opt out, especially Naz. Teams put player options on bargain deals to sweeten them for the player, to act as insurance in case they have a severe injury. It doesn’t particularly matter though, since we’ll clearly pay to keep Naz, and with his Bird rights, we can pay whatever we want. He deserves to be paid more, and we can start that next year.

I think you misunderstood. Say Naz is in line for 4 for 100. Now pretend we go to Naz and say we want to pay 100 over 4 years but could use some help from you. So instead of paying you 25 this year can we pay you 17.5? We will give you a player option the following season and a promise not to trade you. Then you opt out and we give your 3 for 75 plus we add in the 7.5 you were willing to not take last year. So instead of 3 for 75 we give him 3 for 82.5. Naz loses no money, but delays the pay raise long enough to keep NAW and deal with Randle.

I guess the positive here is that we don't have many 1st round picks for the league to take away from us...

[BlacJacMac]

For me, I have a hard time seeing which is the right course. I agree Fox is the better player, but he is about to get paid big bucks. Jaden is good, and leaves financial room for another equivalent player. I’d also mention that you win championships with elite players, so overpaying for elite talent is a legitimate direction, but how elite is Fox? Also, bringing in Fox definitely reduces our problem with Ant’s playmaking, but this is also an area that he could grow into to be a superstar.

Tough call for me here.

My worry is Fox is already 27 and (outside of last year) not a good shooter - so much of his game is super reliant on plus athleticism.

(Which is also why I think him going to the Spurs seems short-sighted...)

Is he going to be worth 50+ million in his early 30s?

IMO, trading for Fox is going all-in on a title this year or next. But do we still have enough supporting cast after giving up everything we'd need to in order to get him?

[ILC]

For me, I have a hard time seeing which is the right course. I agree Fox is the better player, but he is about to get paid big bucks. Jaden is good, and leaves financial room for another equivalent player. I’d also mention that you win championships with elite players, so overpaying for elite talent is a legitimate direction, but how elite is Fox? Also, bringing in Fox definitely reduces our problem with Ant’s playmaking, but this is also an area that he could grow into to be a superstar.

Tough call for me here.

My worry is Fox is already 27 and (outside of last year) not a good shooter - so much of his game is super reliant on plus athleticism.

(Which is also why I think him going to the Spurs seems short-sighted...)

Is he going to be worth 50+ million in his early 30s?

IMO, trading for Fox is going all-in on a title this year or next. But do we still have enough supporting cast after giving up everything we'd need to in order to get him?

That's the KEY question and IMO the answer is clearly no.

I love Fox, but if you do the proposal above with Randle, Mike, NAW and Rob that leaves you with Fox, Ant, McD, Naz, Rudy and DDV as a really good 6 man rotation, then Clark and TSJr, Garza and Miller to fill out the rotation.

Then if you sign Naz this summer to the same contract Jaden got you do have about 10m under the 2nd apron to fill out the roster with, but that's still not enough for at least 2 really good rotation guys.

It also leaves you with questions about DDV's recovery (will he even come back this year) and if Fox will even re-sign if you can't compete for the title right away and even if he re-signs that's going to be the max right away and immediately a very bad contract (for as good as he is).

I'd rather roll the dice with the current team, at least it's deeper.

[winforlose]

I expect both to opt out, especially Naz. Teams put player options on bargain deals to sweeten them for the player, to act as insurance in case they have a severe injury. It doesn’t particularly matter though, since we’ll clearly pay to keep Naz, and with his Bird rights, we can pay whatever we want. He deserves to be paid more, and we can start that next year.

I think you misunderstood. Say Naz is in line for 4 for 100. Now pretend we go to Naz and say we want to pay 100 over 4 years but could use some help from you. So instead of paying you 25 this year can we pay you 17.5? We will give you a player option the following season and a promise not to trade you. Then you opt out and we give your 3 for 75 plus we add in the 7.5 you were willing to not take last year. So instead of 3 for 75 we give him 3 for 82.5. Naz loses no money, but delays the pay raise long enough to keep NAW and deal with Randle.

I guess the positive here is that we don't have many 1st round picks for the league to take away from us...

1. Players taking less than their absolute highest possible number is common under the CBA.

2. I am not sure this is illegal if we have his bird rights. Joe Smith was all about not having them. If we promise a guy 100 million over 4 years and backload 3 of the 4 why would the league care. If it’s about the 2 contracts, see KD and the Warriors.

[BlacJacMac]

I think you misunderstood. Say Naz is in line for 4 for 100. Now pretend we go to Naz and say we want to pay 100 over 4 years but could use some help from you. So instead of paying you 25 this year can we pay you 17.5? We will give you a player option the following season and a promise not to trade you. Then you opt out and we give your 3 for 75 plus we add in the 7.5 you were willing to not take last year. So instead of 3 for 75 we give him 3 for 82.5. Naz loses no money, but delays the pay raise long enough to keep NAW and deal with Randle.

I guess the positive here is that we don't have many 1st round picks for the league to take away from us...

1. Players taking less than their absolute highest possible number is common under the CBA.

2. I am not sure this is illegal if we have his bird rights. Joe Smith was all about not having them. If we promise a guy 100 million over 4 years and backload 3 of the 4 why would the league care. If it’s about the 2 contracts, see KD and the Warriors.

I'm not risking signing guys for below market money to circumvent CBA penalties, while offering future promises.

Also, lets say we do this and Naz blows his achilles towards the end of next year. Are you still signing him to 3/82.5?

Its easy to be cavalier with someone else's money.