Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 318: Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway BMF fight, all strikers card

[j4remi]

Khabib trolling him although I do understand what you actually mean. He has a lot of supporters there so I get it.

I’ll strongly disagree on who won the first fight between Islam and Volk. It was close but I think Islam should have won and he did. As far as the rematch it didn’t have to be Volk at that time, he chose to take it so that’s not something I will hold against Islam. But like I said, Volk hasn’t been the same since the first fight and has been on a downward spiral so even if he did have more time I still don’t see him winning. Islam is just overall better.

As far as Shavkat and Bilal, it’s not the same because Islam would be the challenger. I think if you are going to go outside your weight class you should at least have some more title defenses in your class. If Islam just won the lightweight belt and was right away looking to go chase a 2nd belt I would say the same exact thing, he would need to have more title defenses first. It’s just my opinion.

I've gotten pretty turned off by two-division champs as a whole. But it's mainly because of how slowed down the divisions get. The two circumstances where I make exceptions are when a champ clears his division (Islam can claim this) or when there's not a clear contender (the case for Ilia, since I think Diego Lopes should rematch Evloev for next shot).

I like Shavkhat vs Islam as the highest-skilled fight between two divisions. But Shavkhat has his own work to do. I wouldn't be surprised if the UFC is praying for Leon to beat JDM, so they can have Shavkhat vs Leon as a precursor to Islam moving up. But I'd also want Islam committed to at least one title defense in a move-up. No division hopping or winning the belt and retiring.

I do agree about Islam needs to face better competition and I’m wanting to see it. I wanted to see the matchup with Arman, I’d love to see a matchup with Shavkat, I’d love to see a fight against guys who have a legit shot.

I'm big on resume, and Islam's had some bad timing, I'll admit. He's had been stuck between guys who Khabib already beat and pullouts that leave him with lower ranked opponents. A move to Welterweight would definitely give him the high-status opponents to surpass Khabib and arguably anyone (but that depends on who he fights and how long he lasts).

It's crazy that Jon Jones could STILL stack his resume. Beating Aspinall would have him stomping out three generations' and two divisions' worth of elites.

[j4remi]

Yeah exactly he’s basically like Floyd Mayweather. Elite defense, elite stamina and conditioning and just secures enough points to survive and get a victory.

Umar won the first two rounds in my opinion, he showed elite striking ability but ran out of gas early and lost the next 3 rounds. Merab had so many opportunities to do damage on the ground but never did anything. The showboating and all that extra stuff would be fine if he actually had ability to do damage to the opponent. He just wins on points.

An ugly MMA Mayweather is a good comparison. Maybe B-Hop, since Hopkins was so great at disrupting fighters' rhythms with tie-ups and clinch work.

The showboating kills me. I feel like Merab does a lot that shouldn't register with judges. He'll lock in a choke that's not gonna go anywhere, but it stalls the opponent on defense. The crowd chews it up, but it's like "that guillotine is just for show."

I'm semi-curious about a Sandhagen fight. At least before a rematch with O'Malley. Corey's aggressive off his back, so at least Merab would have less chances to stall.

[j4remi]

The GFL had their draft this weekend. I think there's something to Team MMA events, but I'm not sure what the best model would be. The interesting thing about GFL is that they targeted a lot of former big names, but I'm not sure what that will do for the product. A lot of the fighters are way past their primes, but it ought to mean a competitive series of fights.

Watch on YouTube

Having a draft event is kinda cool too.

[HarthorneWingo]

Are we still following this because Conor says he wants Stephens. But Stephens wants Mike Perry.

BKFC Jeremy Stephens vs. "Cocaine Conor" (that's Stephens' nickname, but I approve)

Watch on YouTube

[j4remi]

Are we still following this because Conor says he wants Stephens. But Stephens wants Mike Perry.

BKFC Jeremy Stephens vs. "Cocaine Conor" (that's Stephens' nickname, but I approve)

Watch on YouTube

The fact that Conor lost a case in Ireland for Sexual Assault and still gets to walk around like a star bothers me. He's not serious about any of this fight stuff, he's still under UFC contract obligations. So, he's just running around throwing his name in to fight everybody. He was gonna fight Michael Chandler, Dan Hooker, Floyd Mayweather again, one of the Paul Brothers, KSI, and he's done faceoffs with Mike Perry and Jeremy Stephens...it's all just for show.

It reminds me of retired Henry Cejudo talking about fighting everyone who won fights to try and stay relevant (then he came back, wasn't as good as his prime, and struggled).

[j4remi]

Got some good fights this weekend.

Israel Adesanya fights Nassourdine Imavov, Imavov's on a three-fight win streak over some of the best strikers in the division. Izzy is arguably THE best striker in the division. Imavov's got some nasty in-boxing whereas Izzy likes space, so it should be interesting to see how they each approach this.

Then Michael Venom Pages fights Shara Magomedov, so we get the two most dynamic strikers at MW in a duel of explosiveness. I always like to remind everyone that I can't stand Bullet, so I'm rooting for MVP. There will be spinning ish...but also it might devolve to a feint fest.

Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik is basically two KO power strikers meeting at HW. Pavlovich was a win away from being the Jon Jones mandatory challenger.

Then some fun fighters like Vinicius Oliveira vs Said Nurmagomedov (he's the weakest Nurmagomedov but that's still really good); Oliveira has looked tough but he's pretty green in the UFC.

The prelims are good but not great. Some decent prospects and familiar faces but no one I'm overly hyped on.

[HarthorneWingo]

Watched this last night. Knucklemania Eddie Alvarez vs Jeremy Stephens. Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robots.

Watch on YouTube

[j4remi]

Watched this last night. Knucklemania Eddie Alvarez vs Jeremy Stephens. Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robots.

Watch on YouTube

Jeremy Stephens was built for Bareknuckle. He's got a granite chin and insane power. I'm still surprised he worked Eddie over, but I guess I shouldn't be.

I forgot this week's UFC fights were early. We're an hour into the main card. The big fights are about to kick off.

[bringbackhoffa]

Watched this last night. Knucklemania Eddie Alvarez vs Jeremy Stephens. Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robots.

Watch on YouTube

Jeremy Stephens was built for Bareknuckle. He's got a granite chin and insane power. I'm still surprised he worked Eddie over, but I guess I shouldn't be.

I forgot this week's UFC fights were early. We're an hour into the main card. The big fights are about to kick off.

Sharabullet round 1 has a nice payout..

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[HEZI]

Time for Izzy to just retire

[Guano]

Time for Izzy to just retire

sht hurt my feelings

[HarthorneWingo]

MVP vs Mags was boring AF

[j4remi]

Sharabullet round 1 has a nice payout..

Sent from my SM-G990W using RealGM mobile app

I'm an open Bullet hater, so I made a nice bit of bread parlaying Pavlovic and MVP...gave half the winnings back on a Knicks parlay though

[j4remi]

Time for Izzy to just retire

sht hurt my feelings

Izzy kinda reminds me of watching Roy Jones Jr fall off. Jones is one of the greatest boxers I've ever witnessed, but since his style was to make fighters miss by an inch and counter; the second he lost half a step, it was over for him. That's how Adesanya feels to me. He was so good at making guys barely miss, that slowing down even slightly means he's taking damage.

[Guano]

Time for Izzy to just retire

sht hurt my feelings

Izzy kinda reminds me of watching Roy Jones Jr fall off. Jones is one of the greatest boxers I've ever witnessed, but since his style was to make fighters miss by an inch and counter; the second he lost half a step, it was over for him. That's how Adesanya feels to me. He was so good at making guys barely miss, that slowing down even slightly means he's taking damage.

he was an artist in there. he hasn't looked like izzy in a few fights. even though he won round 1 he looked slow. I remember having to slow down his highlights to be able to see what he pulled off. now he is getting starched.

[j4remi]

So, UFC 312 is tomorrow and I just don't have much enthusiasm for it. It's aggressively mid. But at least the fighters on top of the card deserve have unpredictable match-ups. So, I figured I'd drop some quick thoughts on the match-ups for the heads that frequent the threat.

The Rematch no one seems to care about:
Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland was a super close title fight that could have gone either way. Both guys had successes and failures across the rounds with DDP barely winning. But it's telling that I barely see anyone excited about the rematch. Realistically, that fight was kinda boring, and neither fighter has evolved enough to expect much different.

But the toss-up first match means the adjustments in game plans could really decide the result. The big thing is probably if Dricus can get the takedowns and control to win rounds, because I think Strickland will win the striking exchanges again. I think it's easier for Sean to better prep for takedowns than DDP to figure out better options to strike his way into grappling.

So, I'm edging this for Sean Strickland, but prefer DDP to win...DDP vs Chimaev is a really intriguing fight for me.

The best two female fighters in the sport?
I'm kinda sad that Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez isn't getting much hype. Weili is second on the women's P4P list, and I rate her ahead of Valentina Shevchenko, who has reached her twilight phase. Tatiana Suarez has been a shoo-in to hold the title since she smoked everyone on TUF. The only thing that hurts her momentum is injury. They're two of the best women fighting, period, and the match-up is really interesting.

You see, Zhang has evolved to mix striking and wrestling seamlessly. She can strike with almost anyone and level change with the best of them. But Tatiana Suarez IS the best wrestler in any division. She makes up for limited striking with overwhelming wrestling. So, this comes down to who will decide where the fight takes place and I can't pick.

I lean toward Weili thanks to way more experience and superior striking where every round starts. But Suarez is always a takedown away from threatening to submit the opponent. Best of all, Yao Xionan is waiting to get next, and she arguably beat Zhang in their first fight. Women's Strawweight is too slept on.

The rest is kinda...
Now it's time to vent a little. An elite Main and Co-Main wouldn't carry the next three fights, let alone these two fights with no hype or momentum to them.

An early prelim-level fight on the main card
Justin Tafa has a .500 record in the UFC and lost his last fight. His opponent is Tallison Almeida, who hasn't even fought in the UFC yet, but is debuting as the third fight on a Numbered event. WTF is that!? But the vision is obvious. Both guys have 100% finish rate in wins, 13 KO's and one submission. Also, the UFC loves having undersized Tafa vs giant HWs and Almeida is 6'7.

My rule is never to bet on Contenders winners in their UFC debut, I've made a grip of money betting against them. It's tough to bet on Tafa with the size difference, but he actually has a reach advantage. So, if my prelim parlay hits, there's probably some house money going on the little guy for the hell of it.

It gets worse
Next, we get Jimmy Crute on who hasn't won a fight since 2020 against Rodolfo Bellato who actually won his debut after being on Contenders. But if they're putting him against guys on years-long losing streaks, it's not impressive. Bellato fights have ended with 13 finishes out of 14 fights, Crute hasn't seen a decision since 2018.

So, yeah...I'm not betting on this, but it's obviously meant to showcase Bellato. Crute's not totally awful, he got rushed into top-tier opponents. It wouldn't surprise me if Bellato has his "welcome to the big leagues" moment here, but I just haven't seen enough to make a pick.

Okay, this one's not bad
Close out the PPV with two absolute dogs. Neither guy is a title prospect, but neither guy has boring fights. Francisco Prado's newish, but he's won awards in 2 out of 3 UFC fights. He lost his debut but has looked like a tough opponent since. Jake Matthews is closing in on 20 UFC fights. He's a jack-of-all-trades, who with a ton of experience. He's barely 30, so he could have one of those mid-career evolutions.

Honestly, I'm rooting for Jake. He's had a long career of being promising but not entirely putting it all together. Prado is good with me too, though. The kid looks tough and scrappy, which makes up for a lot of deficiencies.

The other fighters I like:
Not to too into the weeds when I've hated on the main card so heavy. I'll just mention a couple of fighters I like.

Gabriel Santos is a fighter I was HYPE to see reach the UFC. Then he dropped two in a row to start his UFC career. His opponent, Jack Jenkins is a guy that will take a beating and keep pushing his opponent anyway. So that's a fun fight.

Wang Cong came into the UFC cocky and got stunned with an upset loss. But I still think she's the real deal, and will make noise as she gains experience. She's fighting Bruna Brasil who couldn't figure out an elite striker in Loma Lookboonmee. I expect similar struggles against Wang Cong.

Oh, and Ilia Topuria's brother is fighting on the card. I haven't checked for him before, but I assume he has to be decent if he's spent a lifetime sparring with Ilia.

[j4remi]

Well, that was as weak as expected. Weili Zhang had a great performance. DDP blanked Sean Strickland with a ton of sloppy volume. Both fights got a bunch of boos. Tafa got KO'ed basically out the gate. The openers were okay but Crute vs Bellato got ruined by being a draw and Matthews vs Prado was good, not great.

It's just a whole lotta mid.

[Ghetto Gospel]

Well, that was as weak as expected. Weili Zhang had a great performance. DDP blanked Sean Strickland with a ton of sloppy volume. Both fights got a bunch of boos. Tafa got KO'ed basically out the gate. The openers were okay but Crute vs Bellato got ruined by being a draw and Matthews vs Prado was good, not great.

It's just a whole lotta mid.

i regret staying up late to watch strickland vs du plessis. never going past 1am for a strickland fight again

[j4remi]

i regret staying up late to watch strickland vs du plessis. never going past 1am for a strickland fight again

Strickland has always been more talk than backing it up. He's a great fighter and a tough opponent to figure out. But that's mainly because he takes no risks and has a really good jab. Everything else he does is safe, which is reflected in his finishing rate.

This video does a great job of calling it out. He talks too damned big for his style of fighting. On the mic he'll claim he'd be psyched to kill a guy in the octagon; then he gets to the octagon and jabs the guy up with an occasional teep.

Watch on YouTube

[j4remi]

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Two bright sides of the lackluster PPV are the most likely title fights its results lead to.

1. Dricus vs Chimaev is fun for so many reasons. Chimaev has bullied most opponents, but Dricus is probably the strongest (literal strength) fighter in the division, except for maybe Khamzat. Chimaev's grappling has been overwhelming, but Dricus is surprisingly crafty on the ground, particularly with chokes. Khamzat's the cleaner striker, but DDP's weird approach has thrown off sharper strikers than Khamzat.

The alternative should there be an injury? Nassourdine Imavov...a certified beast in his own right. I like Imavov's UFC resume more than Khamzat's so far.

2. Weili Zhang vs Valentina Shevchenko is a rare super-fight that feels justified. They've won 15 title fights combined in their divisions. Zhang has fought in title fights since 2019, Valentina since 2018. They're 35 and 36, respectively, so their windows of greatness are bound to start closing soon. They have one clear contender each, but this is a rare case where the superfight feels completely justified.

It's also an intriguing fight on paper. They're elite strikers who switch to wrestling seamlessly. Weili has elite entries, while Valentina is an elite counter-striker. They both pack power and are tough to finish. It's a match made in heaven between the consensus number 1 and number 2 pound-for-pound fighters of UFC's female divisions.

Which means...
The PPV sucked. But it laid the groundwork for a pair of fights that could be headliners. I'd love to see Zhang vs Bullet at International Fight Week's big event. Chimaev vs Dricus...book it as soon as possible and pray Khamzat doesn't get hurt or sick again.