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2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1801 » by Jstock12 » Sat Feb 1, 2025 10:33 pm

Jerry Lucas wrote:
Jerry Lucas wrote:One thing that really stands out to me about Kasparas is how high both his 3PAr and FTr are (both currently sit at .507). I feel like this is something you just don't see often, the amount he's getting to the line despite how much of his shot diet consists of 3P attempts.

I remember when Brandon Miller stood out in a similar way to me during the 2023 draft cycle, but his FTr was .329 relative to his 3PAr of .535. For both rates to be as high as they are for Kasparas seems kinda crazy to me.

I did a little more digging into this so I'm following up this post by replying to myself. I wanted to see just how rare it is what Kasparas is doing by making a query on Torvik to filter for multiple aspects of his production that stand out to me other than just his 3PAr and FTr both being high. The results shocked me:

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=24&minusage=25&minGP=1&minTS=60&minOR=1&minDR=9&minAst=25&minATO=1&mintp100=8.5&minftr=30&mingbpm=9&year=all&minmin=60&start=-11101&end=all0501

Query filters:
Min% ≥ 60
Usage ≥ 25
TS% ≥ 60
Off Reb % ≥ 1; Def Reb % ≥ 9 (OReb% + DReb% ≥ 10)
Assist % ≥ 25
Ast/TO Ratio ≥ 1
3PA/100 Poss ≥ 8.5
Free Throw Rate ≥ 30

Box +/- ≥ 9


What Kasparas Jakucionis is doing as an 18 year old freshman right now has never been seen before by Torvik's database. His list of production comparables from any class are:
-Sophomore James Harden
-Junior Steph Curry
-Junior Jalen Brunson
-Junior Reggie Jackson
-Redshirt Junior Damian Lillard (so he was senior aged)
-And a couple of actual seniors (1 of them being Payton Pritchard)

Something else that stood out to me but I didn't filter for on this query: Sophomore Harden (2.9), Junior Curry (4.5), and Kasparas (4) are the only ones with a dBPM of 2 or higher. Junior Brunson was also just short with a 1.7 dBPM.

I'm going to stake a big claim here which I usually don't do, so feel free to dunk on me with this receipt when and if I'm wrong: Kasparas Jakucionis is going to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA (and maybe even a perennial All-NBA player too).

I really hope that you're right about him, but just to play the devil's advocate - his high FTr could also be related to his Barcelona background in Spain where the foul drawing is a bit of an art form... He hung around with the main Barcelona team as well where there were a few very experienced vets to show him the tricks... And also from an eye-test when watching him play, he does search for those fouls / baiting his opponents into it quite a bit.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1802 » by Syd-TK3 » Sat Feb 1, 2025 10:37 pm

RoteSchroder wrote:
Syd-TK3 wrote:
RoteSchroder wrote:
Even with the weaknesses, I think a 6’10 athletic Buddy Hield with shot blocking ability is pretty appealing. You just limit his role to a pure scorer and initiate the offense through a PG or playmaker.

Specialists can be more useful than all-round guys who aren’t particularly elite at anything.

I’m good with any of the guys you mentioned + Ace, main problem is getting to the top 5

Lol Ace went from MPJ to 6'10 Gary Trent to 6'10 Buddy Hield


I never compared him to MPJr, I went with GTJr and Hield because both are/were more explosive scorers, but with tunnel vision and can shoot you out of a game on a bad day.

MPJr’s play style isn’t someone who’s gonna volume chuck up shots and seems mostly off-ball.

Both GTJr and Hield have 40 point games for example, MPJr has zero.

I'm just pointing out how his outcome for people can be all over the place
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1803 » by aminiaturebuddha » Sat Feb 1, 2025 11:09 pm

TNRaps4life wrote:
aminiaturebuddha wrote:Rutgers' offensive sets make no sense. I have no idea why Bailey and Harper chose to go there.


You got that right. NIL money .


Would the NIL money have been less at a program that knows what they're doing?
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1804 » by RoteSchroder » Sun Feb 2, 2025 12:19 am

Syd-TK3 wrote:
RoteSchroder wrote:
Syd-TK3 wrote:Lol Ace went from MPJ to 6'10 Gary Trent to 6'10 Buddy Hield


I never compared him to MPJr, I went with GTJr and Hield because both are/were more explosive scorers, but with tunnel vision and can shoot you out of a game on a bad day.

MPJr’s play style isn’t someone who’s gonna volume chuck up shots and seems mostly off-ball.

Both GTJr and Hield have 40 point games for example, MPJr has zero.

I'm just pointing out how his outcome for people can be all over the place


I also compared him to a 6’10 Klay Thompson early on. I think the similarities between these four are:

1. Shooter
2. Not a slasher
3. Below average passing
4. Can make and take tough shots

What role he’s given in the NBA, his consistency and his offensive IQ are all a bit questionable. How consistent he’s able to be with his scoring will define his value. He may have a tough time in the NBA against lengthy defenders who take away his shot and force him to drive. The pace of the NBA also wears on your legs, so his conditioning needs to be top notch.

Interestingly, Klay, MPJr, GTJr, Hield all top out around 18-22 PPG. I would think Ace’s upside is higher than that.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1805 » by Consequence » Sun Feb 2, 2025 12:33 am

Maluach is having a good game
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1806 » by RoteSchroder » Sun Feb 2, 2025 12:40 am

UnbelievablyRAW wrote:Ace is going to look much better in the NBA.

The stuff he does at an elite level cant be taught, but stuff like playmaking and ballhandling can. He's already someone who plays hard, is a decent helpside shot blocker and is a good rebounder. The jump shotmaking is in a class of its own.

RJ's passing is night and day from NY. Demar's handle since his final Raps season to now is night and day from when he came into the league. Same with Pascal and even OG to a lesser extent. Even someone like Jalen Green has much better feel for the game now vs when he entered the league.

I can see what the advanced stats say but you're not going to convince any GM to take Asa Newell over a 18 year old that can score 40 while being doubled every other possession all without taking more than 3 dribbles in any of his possessions. If you believe in your developmental system, you can improve the playmaking, decision making and ball handling. He's also from all accounts a gym rat and coachable.

I love Kasparas and Edgecombe but neither are touching Ace in 4 years I'd bet


I would say RJ already had this ability in NY, he just wasn’t used as a playmaker. Masai emphasized changing his play style when he got here, it’s not like he magically gained those skills over night.

DD was a workaholic, has a lower center of gravity and more of a guard body. Ace has high hips, which may make it harder for him to excel as a ball-handler. I don’t think you can just say he’ll get better when hundreds of players (never mind 6’10 players) weren’t able to drastically develop their handles/passing.

Shooting can also be developed (see Kawhi, not a player known for shooting, but eventually developed his shooting to the consistency of a robot). Even DD went from a complete non-shooter to an elite mid-range master.

The point of drafting these players based on their skill set is that we’re guaranteed that they possess the skill set they show, whereas other factors are still question marks.

I would also say that Ace doesn’t need to develop his on-ball skills to the level of a star wing/guard. Ace will never get to an elite level, so just give that job to a PG. That would be misusing him as an on-ball guy. He can be a specialist like Klay.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1807 » by ItsDanger » Sun Feb 2, 2025 2:01 am

Read on Twitter


Dump the vets.
Organization can be defined as an organized body of people with a particular purpose. Not random.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1808 » by Son Goku 25 » Sun Feb 2, 2025 2:52 am

Holy that cross court pass, guy like Jokic, Luka, Bron and Scottie can make those at that height. He has the complete game and will get better you can also see he has that competitive fire too.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1809 » by Yallbecrazy » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:11 am

RoteSchroder wrote:
UnbelievablyRAW wrote:Ace is going to look much better in the NBA.

The stuff he does at an elite level cant be taught, but stuff like playmaking and ballhandling can. He's already someone who plays hard, is a decent helpside shot blocker and is a good rebounder. The jump shotmaking is in a class of its own.

RJ's passing is night and day from NY. Demar's handle since his final Raps season to now is night and day from when he came into the league. Same with Pascal and even OG to a lesser extent. Even someone like Jalen Green has much better feel for the game now vs when he entered the league.

I can see what the advanced stats say but you're not going to convince any GM to take Asa Newell over a 18 year old that can score 40 while being doubled every other possession all without taking more than 3 dribbles in any of his possessions. If you believe in your developmental system, you can improve the playmaking, decision making and ball handling. He's also from all accounts a gym rat and coachable.

I love Kasparas and Edgecombe but neither are touching Ace in 4 years I'd bet


I would say RJ already had this ability in NY, he just wasn’t used as a playmaker. Masai emphasized changing his play style when he got here, it’s not like he magically gained those skills over night.

DD was a workaholic, has a lower center of gravity and more of a guard body. Ace has high hips, which may make it harder for him to excel as a ball-handler. I don’t think you can just say he’ll get better when hundreds of players (never mind 6’10 players) weren’t able to drastically develop their handles/passing.

Shooting can also be developed (see Kawhi, not a player known for shooting, but eventually developed his shooting to the consistency of a robot). Even DD went from a complete non-shooter to an elite mid-range master.

The point of drafting these players based on their skill set is that we’re guaranteed that they possess the skill set they show, whereas other factors are still question marks.

I would also say that Ace doesn’t need to develop his on-ball skills to the level of a star wing/guard. Ace will never get to an elite level, so just give that job to a PG. That would be misusing him as an on-ball guy. He can be a specialist like Klay.


I agree with all of this, but shooting is very unpredictable for draft picks and Ace Bailey has a relatively terrible free throw percentage for a shooter, which is often a good predictor for shooting as a pro.

Klay was also a better defender and had much better assists in college.

If you're drafting a pure shooter then those guys aren't really worth lottery picks unless they can contribute in other ways and Bailey's defense doesn't necessarily project as a weakness like Hawkins, but it's not a strength either.
Klay also had high 80s free throw shooting like most shooters. (Bailey is at 67%)

I understand Klay can't create his own shot like Bailey, but I can also see a large percentage of outcomes where Ace becomes a black hole on offense and doesn't even shoot it well enough to justify him being on the floor while also being a negative in the rest of his game. BBIQ is not something that is easily developed, you don't see many guys come into the league without it and suddenly become good at it. Jaylen Brown is one of the few and even then you would say his bbiq is mostly average, and he is apparently an incredibly intelligent guy off the court so that is not really an example to follow.

I understand the outlier skill he has is important and I foresee him being a poor man's Durant some percentage of the time, but I also see a guy who isn't good enough to start on a contender a very large percentage of the time, and a complete bust some percentage of the time too. Even if he becomes a good or great shooter how much of an overall impact will he have if he makes his teammates worse by being a black hole, and projects to be an average defender at best?

Klay ended up hitting well above his 90th percentile outcome as he became an all time great shooter, but if you're expecting or projecting a guy to be an all time great shooter as the reason for taking him high then you are drafting incorrectly as there are many more guys who end up being streaky shooters who top out around average or above average and are negative overalls because of the rest of their game.

I just can't put him in my top 5 in this class, and I lean toward not putting him in my top 10 either. Maybe last year he was worth a top 3 pick as a boom/bust guy, but there are much better options in this draft at the top.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1810 » by Reeko » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:18 am

Jstock12 wrote:
Jerry Lucas wrote:
Jerry Lucas wrote:One thing that really stands out to me about Kasparas is how high both his 3PAr and FTr are (both currently sit at .507). I feel like this is something you just don't see often, the amount he's getting to the line despite how much of his shot diet consists of 3P attempts.

I remember when Brandon Miller stood out in a similar way to me during the 2023 draft cycle, but his FTr was .329 relative to his 3PAr of .535. For both rates to be as high as they are for Kasparas seems kinda crazy to me.

I did a little more digging into this so I'm following up this post by replying to myself. I wanted to see just how rare it is what Kasparas is doing by making a query on Torvik to filter for multiple aspects of his production that stand out to me other than just his 3PAr and FTr both being high. The results shocked me:

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=24&minusage=25&minGP=1&minTS=60&minOR=1&minDR=9&minAst=25&minATO=1&mintp100=8.5&minftr=30&mingbpm=9&year=all&minmin=60&start=-11101&end=all0501

Query filters:
Min% ≥ 60
Usage ≥ 25
TS% ≥ 60
Off Reb % ≥ 1; Def Reb % ≥ 9 (OReb% + DReb% ≥ 10)
Assist % ≥ 25
Ast/TO Ratio ≥ 1
3PA/100 Poss ≥ 8.5
Free Throw Rate ≥ 30

Box +/- ≥ 9


What Kasparas Jakucionis is doing as an 18 year old freshman right now has never been seen before by Torvik's database. His list of production comparables from any class are:
-Sophomore James Harden
-Junior Steph Curry
-Junior Jalen Brunson
-Junior Reggie Jackson
-Redshirt Junior Damian Lillard (so he was senior aged)
-And a couple of actual seniors (1 of them being Payton Pritchard)

Something else that stood out to me but I didn't filter for on this query: Sophomore Harden (2.9), Junior Curry (4.5), and Kasparas (4) are the only ones with a dBPM of 2 or higher. Junior Brunson was also just short with a 1.7 dBPM.

I'm going to stake a big claim here which I usually don't do, so feel free to dunk on me with this receipt when and if I'm wrong: Kasparas Jakucionis is going to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA (and maybe even a perennial All-NBA player too).

I really hope that you're right about him, but just to play the devil's advocate - his high FTr could also be related to his Barcelona background in Spain where the foul drawing is a bit of an art form... He hung around with the main Barcelona team as well where there were a few very experienced vets to show him the tricks... And also from an eye-test when watching him play, he does search for those fouls / baiting his opponents into it quite a bit.

Does it matter? Do you think that NBA refs are less susceptible to blowing the whistle? Are they going to say "You can't fool me with your Euroleague tactics! You got away with it in college but this is the NBA!" I don't think so, if it worked for him in college, it's only a matter of time before the NBA refs start blowing the whistle in his favor.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1811 » by Yallbecrazy » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:25 am

Reeko wrote:
Jstock12 wrote:
Jerry Lucas wrote:I did a little more digging into this so I'm following up this post by replying to myself. I wanted to see just how rare it is what Kasparas is doing by making a query on Torvik to filter for multiple aspects of his production that stand out to me other than just his 3PAr and FTr both being high. The results shocked me:



What Kasparas Jakucionis is doing as an 18 year old freshman right now has never been seen before by Torvik's database. His list of production comparables from any class are:
-Sophomore James Harden
-Junior Steph Curry
-Junior Jalen Brunson
-Junior Reggie Jackson
-Redshirt Junior Damian Lillard (so he was senior aged)
-And a couple of actual seniors (1 of them being Payton Pritchard)

Something else that stood out to me but I didn't filter for on this query: Sophomore Harden (2.9), Junior Curry (4.5), and Kasparas (4) are the only ones with a dBPM of 2 or higher. Junior Brunson was also just short with a 1.7 dBPM.

I'm going to stake a big claim here which I usually don't do, so feel free to dunk on me with this receipt when and if I'm wrong: Kasparas Jakucionis is going to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA (and maybe even a perennial All-NBA player too).

I really hope that you're right about him, but just to play the devil's advocate - his high FTr could also be related to his Barcelona background in Spain where the foul drawing is a bit of an art form... He hung around with the main Barcelona team as well where there were a few very experienced vets to show him the tricks... And also from an eye-test when watching him play, he does search for those fouls / baiting his opponents into it quite a bit.

Does it matter? Do you think that NBA refs are less susceptible to blowing the whistle? Are they going to say "You can't fool me with your Euroleague tactics! You got away with it in college but this is the NBA!" I don't think so, if it worked for him in college, it's only a matter of time before the NBA refs start blowing the whistle in his favor.


I think the point is many guys develop those skills later so he already has the tricks instead of the natural aggression to draw fouls so it doesn't project the same as it would for other prospects.

I understand the reasoning, I'm not sure if it will matter.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1812 » by Syd-TK3 » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:31 am

Yallbecrazy wrote:
RoteSchroder wrote:
UnbelievablyRAW wrote:Ace is going to look much better in the NBA.

The stuff he does at an elite level cant be taught, but stuff like playmaking and ballhandling can. He's already someone who plays hard, is a decent helpside shot blocker and is a good rebounder. The jump shotmaking is in a class of its own.

RJ's passing is night and day from NY. Demar's handle since his final Raps season to now is night and day from when he came into the league. Same with Pascal and even OG to a lesser extent. Even someone like Jalen Green has much better feel for the game now vs when he entered the league.

I can see what the advanced stats say but you're not going to convince any GM to take Asa Newell over a 18 year old that can score 40 while being doubled every other possession all without taking more than 3 dribbles in any of his possessions. If you believe in your developmental system, you can improve the playmaking, decision making and ball handling. He's also from all accounts a gym rat and coachable.

I love Kasparas and Edgecombe but neither are touching Ace in 4 years I'd bet


I would say RJ already had this ability in NY, he just wasn’t used as a playmaker. Masai emphasized changing his play style when he got here, it’s not like he magically gained those skills over night.

DD was a workaholic, has a lower center of gravity and more of a guard body. Ace has high hips, which may make it harder for him to excel as a ball-handler. I don’t think you can just say he’ll get better when hundreds of players (never mind 6’10 players) weren’t able to drastically develop their handles/passing.

Shooting can also be developed (see Kawhi, not a player known for shooting, but eventually developed his shooting to the consistency of a robot). Even DD went from a complete non-shooter to an elite mid-range master.

The point of drafting these players based on their skill set is that we’re guaranteed that they possess the skill set they show, whereas other factors are still question marks.

I would also say that Ace doesn’t need to develop his on-ball skills to the level of a star wing/guard. Ace will never get to an elite level, so just give that job to a PG. That would be misusing him as an on-ball guy. He can be a specialist like Klay.


I agree with all of this, but shooting is very unpredictable for draft picks and Ace Bailey has a relatively terrible free throw percentage for a shooter, which is often a good predictor for shooting as a pro.

Klay was also a better defender and had much better assists in college.

If you're drafting a pure shooter then those guys aren't really worth lottery picks unless they can contribute in other ways and Bailey's defense doesn't necessarily project as a weakness like Hawkins, but it's not a strength either.
Klay also had high 80s free throw shooting like most shooters. (Bailey is at 67%)

I understand Klay can't create his own shot like Bailey, but I can also see a large percentage of outcomes where Ace becomes a black hole on offense and doesn't even shoot it well enough to justify him being on the floor while also being a negative in the rest of his game. BBIQ is not something that is easily developed, you don't see many guys come into the league without it and suddenly become good at it. Jaylen Brown is one of the few and even then you would say his bbiq is mostly average, and he is apparently an incredibly intelligent guy off the court so that is not really an example to follow.

I understand the outlier skill he has is important and I foresee him being a poor man's Durant some percentage of the time, but I also see a guy who isn't good enough to start on a contender a very large percentage of the time, and a complete bust some percentage of the time too. Even if he becomes a good or great shooter how much of an overall impact will he have if he makes his teammates worse by being a black hole, and projects to be an average defender at best?

Klay ended up hitting well above his 90th percentile outcome as he became an all time great shooter, but if you're expecting or projecting a guy to be an all time great shooter as the reason for taking him high then you are drafting incorrectly as there are many more guys who end up being streaky shooters who top out around average or above average and are negative overalls because of the rest of their game.

I just can't put him in my top 5 in this class, and I lean toward not putting him in my top 10 either. Maybe last year he was worth a top 3 pick as a boom/bust guy, but there are much better options in this draft at the top.


Bailey is honestly not a bad free throw shooter he just doesn't take much. So having a 1/8 and 2/8 game dramatically hurts the averages. In reality he's more likely a mid 70s guy. I'm not sure how you could see him and think he won't be a good overall shooter or isn't already
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1813 » by Yallbecrazy » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:45 am

Syd-TK3 wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
RoteSchroder wrote:
I would say RJ already had this ability in NY, he just wasn’t used as a playmaker. Masai emphasized changing his play style when he got here, it’s not like he magically gained those skills over night.

DD was a workaholic, has a lower center of gravity and more of a guard body. Ace has high hips, which may make it harder for him to excel as a ball-handler. I don’t think you can just say he’ll get better when hundreds of players (never mind 6’10 players) weren’t able to drastically develop their handles/passing.

Shooting can also be developed (see Kawhi, not a player known for shooting, but eventually developed his shooting to the consistency of a robot). Even DD went from a complete non-shooter to an elite mid-range master.

The point of drafting these players based on their skill set is that we’re guaranteed that they possess the skill set they show, whereas other factors are still question marks.

I would also say that Ace doesn’t need to develop his on-ball skills to the level of a star wing/guard. Ace will never get to an elite level, so just give that job to a PG. That would be misusing him as an on-ball guy. He can be a specialist like Klay.


I agree with all of this, but shooting is very unpredictable for draft picks and Ace Bailey has a relatively terrible free throw percentage for a shooter, which is often a good predictor for shooting as a pro.

Klay was also a better defender and had much better assists in college.

If you're drafting a pure shooter then those guys aren't really worth lottery picks unless they can contribute in other ways and Bailey's defense doesn't necessarily project as a weakness like Hawkins, but it's not a strength either.
Klay also had high 80s free throw shooting like most shooters. (Bailey is at 67%)

I understand Klay can't create his own shot like Bailey, but I can also see a large percentage of outcomes where Ace becomes a black hole on offense and doesn't even shoot it well enough to justify him being on the floor while also being a negative in the rest of his game. BBIQ is not something that is easily developed, you don't see many guys come into the league without it and suddenly become good at it. Jaylen Brown is one of the few and even then you would say his bbiq is mostly average, and he is apparently an incredibly intelligent guy off the court so that is not really an example to follow.

I understand the outlier skill he has is important and I foresee him being a poor man's Durant some percentage of the time, but I also see a guy who isn't good enough to start on a contender a very large percentage of the time, and a complete bust some percentage of the time too. Even if he becomes a good or great shooter how much of an overall impact will he have if he makes his teammates worse by being a black hole, and projects to be an average defender at best?

Klay ended up hitting well above his 90th percentile outcome as he became an all time great shooter, but if you're expecting or projecting a guy to be an all time great shooter as the reason for taking him high then you are drafting incorrectly as there are many more guys who end up being streaky shooters who top out around average or above average and are negative overalls because of the rest of their game.

I just can't put him in my top 5 in this class, and I lean toward not putting him in my top 10 either. Maybe last year he was worth a top 3 pick as a boom/bust guy, but there are much better options in this draft at the top.


Bailey is honestly not a bad free throw shooter he just doesn't take much. So having a 1/8 and 2/8 game dramatically hurts the averages. In reality he's more likely a mid 70s guy. I'm not sure how you could see him and think he won't be a good overall shooter or isn't already


He projects as a similar shooter to Beasley.
Beasley as a pro was an averagish shooter who didn't do anything else really well and ended up being a rotation player, but was always below league average.

Beasley actually projected to be a much better defender and significantly better rebounder too.

Bailey and Beasley have similar profiles, and while Beasley obviously hit one of his lower end outcomes he was actually a much superior prospect to Bailey.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1814 » by Syd-TK3 » Sun Feb 2, 2025 4:55 am

Yallbecrazy wrote:
Syd-TK3 wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
I agree with all of this, but shooting is very unpredictable for draft picks and Ace Bailey has a relatively terrible free throw percentage for a shooter, which is often a good predictor for shooting as a pro.

Klay was also a better defender and had much better assists in college.

If you're drafting a pure shooter then those guys aren't really worth lottery picks unless they can contribute in other ways and Bailey's defense doesn't necessarily project as a weakness like Hawkins, but it's not a strength either.
Klay also had high 80s free throw shooting like most shooters. (Bailey is at 67%)

I understand Klay can't create his own shot like Bailey, but I can also see a large percentage of outcomes where Ace becomes a black hole on offense and doesn't even shoot it well enough to justify him being on the floor while also being a negative in the rest of his game. BBIQ is not something that is easily developed, you don't see many guys come into the league without it and suddenly become good at it. Jaylen Brown is one of the few and even then you would say his bbiq is mostly average, and he is apparently an incredibly intelligent guy off the court so that is not really an example to follow.

I understand the outlier skill he has is important and I foresee him being a poor man's Durant some percentage of the time, but I also see a guy who isn't good enough to start on a contender a very large percentage of the time, and a complete bust some percentage of the time too. Even if he becomes a good or great shooter how much of an overall impact will he have if he makes his teammates worse by being a black hole, and projects to be an average defender at best?

Klay ended up hitting well above his 90th percentile outcome as he became an all time great shooter, but if you're expecting or projecting a guy to be an all time great shooter as the reason for taking him high then you are drafting incorrectly as there are many more guys who end up being streaky shooters who top out around average or above average and are negative overalls because of the rest of their game.

I just can't put him in my top 5 in this class, and I lean toward not putting him in my top 10 either. Maybe last year he was worth a top 3 pick as a boom/bust guy, but there are much better options in this draft at the top.


Bailey is honestly not a bad free throw shooter he just doesn't take much. So having a 1/8 and 2/8 game dramatically hurts the averages. In reality he's more likely a mid 70s guy. I'm not sure how you could see him and think he won't be a good overall shooter or isn't already


He projects as a similar shooter to Beasley.
Beasley as a pro was an averagish shooter who didn't do anything else really well and ended up being a rotation player, but was always below league average.

Beasley actually projected to be a much better defender and significantly better rebounder too.

Bailey and Beasley have similar profiles, and while Beasley obviously hit one of his lower end outcomes he was actually a much superior prospect to Bailey.

I don't know enough about Beasley to fully compare all the other aspects of their game. But a quick stat check shows me he averaged 1.4 3pta per game for his career. I'm not sure how in the world that's a projectable outcome for Bailley who's shooting 40% on 5 a game
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1815 » by Psubs » Sun Feb 2, 2025 6:00 am

Consequence wrote:Maluach is having a good game


Just okay.

Zvonimir got to start because Kentucky has 7ft 260lb C. 4 for 7 from 3!

Tre Johnson had a nice game with like 18 pts, 4 rebs, 2 stls, 5 asts (1 to).

VJ stuffed the stat sheet again and was 1 for 2 from deep! He's looking like he should crack the top 3. Crazy that he's up to 38.9% from 3.

Aside: I think I was the only one here really wanting Christian Braun. He's cooking!
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1816 » by RoteSchroder » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:08 pm

My ideal starting line-up is basically 4 of this year’s top 5 in terms of archetype:

3 + D center
Ace Bailey (elite scorer with average+ defense and shot blocking skills)
Cooper Flagg (all-round two way all-star)
Edgecombe (athletic, fast PoA defender)
Kasparas (tall guard who can hit step backs and create at a high level)
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1817 » by LoveMyRaps » Sun Feb 2, 2025 7:48 pm

Kasp stock dropping a bit.

Not impressed recently.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1818 » by LoveMyRaps » Sun Feb 2, 2025 7:50 pm

Will Riley tryna make a late season run back into lotto talks?
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1819 » by Brinbe » Sun Feb 2, 2025 7:51 pm

not exactly a banner weekend for a lot of top prospects outside of the duke guys... jak struggling with his shot today too.

luka trade kinda taking the fun out of this a bit because it's like, what's the point?
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2 

Post#1820 » by ItsDanger » Sun Feb 2, 2025 8:41 pm

Watched Baylor yesterday. They don't run plays for VJ. Looks about 6'4. His self creation appears weak currently. But he could be a high floor 3&D guy worst case scenario. Need to see more.
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