Jerry Lucas wrote:Jerry Lucas wrote:One thing that really stands out to me about Kasparas is how high both his 3PAr and FTr are (both currently sit at .507). I feel like this is something you just don't see often, the amount he's getting to the line despite how much of his shot diet consists of 3P attempts.
I remember when Brandon Miller stood out in a similar way to me during the 2023 draft cycle, but his FTr was .329 relative to his 3PAr of .535. For both rates to be as high as they are for Kasparas seems kinda crazy to me.
I did a little more digging into this so I'm following up this post by replying to myself. I wanted to see just how rare it is what Kasparas is doing by making a query on Torvik to filter for multiple aspects of his production that stand out to me other than just his 3PAr and FTr both being high. The results shocked me:https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=24&minusage=25&minGP=1&minTS=60&minOR=1&minDR=9&minAst=25&minATO=1&mintp100=8.5&minftr=30&mingbpm=9&year=all&minmin=60&start=-11101&end=all0501
Query filters:
Min% ≥ 60
Usage ≥ 25
TS% ≥ 60
Off Reb % ≥ 1; Def Reb % ≥ 9 (OReb% + DReb% ≥ 10)
Assist % ≥ 25
Ast/TO Ratio ≥ 1
3PA/100 Poss ≥ 8.5
Free Throw Rate ≥ 30
Box +/- ≥ 9
What Kasparas Jakucionis is doing as an 18 year old freshman right now has never been seen before by Torvik's database. His list of production comparables from any class are:
-Sophomore James Harden
-Junior Steph Curry
-Junior Jalen Brunson
-Junior Reggie Jackson
-Redshirt Junior Damian Lillard (so he was senior aged)
-And a couple of actual seniors (1 of them being Payton Pritchard)
Something else that stood out to me but I didn't filter for on this query: Sophomore Harden (2.9), Junior Curry (4.5), and Kasparas (4) are the only ones with a dBPM of 2 or higher. Junior Brunson was also just short with a 1.7 dBPM.
I'm going to stake a big claim here which I usually don't do, so feel free to dunk on me with this receipt when and if I'm wrong: Kasparas Jakucionis is going to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA (and maybe even a perennial All-NBA player too).
I really hope that you're right about him, but just to play the devil's advocate - his high FTr could also be related to his Barcelona background in Spain where the foul drawing is a bit of an art form... He hung around with the main Barcelona team as well where there were a few very experienced vets to show him the tricks... And also from an eye-test when watching him play, he does search for those fouls / baiting his opponents into it quite a bit.