Current Status of NBA (Post Luka Trade)

[LarSiN]

Oh, look, another poster who doesn't bother to attempt to refute my points or argue with my position, they just resort to name calling and insults, probably because you know I'm right and there's zero chance of Adam Silver getting fired when the NBA just signed the most lucrative TV rights contract in its history under his watch. Next time do your research before spreading your misinformed conspiracy theories.

I'm sorry I called you a grown man.

Like I said, nothing but insults, no debate, no discussion about anything basketball related, let me know when you have something of substance to say to refute what I've said.

He copy pasted his whole initial post in another thread too, guess it didn't get enough traction, but maybe he'll watch a 3rd game someday

[ItsDanger]

By the way, here's a reddit link that explains why declining ratings in the United States isn't really the huge problem some think it is.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBATalk/comments/1hmnr1y/tv_ratings_decline_in_usa_is_not_really_a_problem/

The upshot is that business is booming internationally with viewership up in a lot of countries, likely part of that is the number of NBA players and stars that are from other countries (Jokic, Giannis, Luka, Shai, and more).

"There’s also a 272% increase in Cameroon" the reddit article cannot be taken seriously with this quote. Entire piece reads like NBA image management.

[Quattro]

As per:

I've listened to 8000 NBA centered podcasts this year and have watched maybe 2 games this season. The product is bad.

I've watched ~80-100 games/year for probably like 25 years. Yes, the Raptors being terrible hurts but that didn't stop me before.

I've spoken with other diehards and its the same story. They just can't bring themselves to watch NBA games anymore. I expect a substantial contraction in the coming years. The ratings are a disaster and the teams valuation were a bubble that's going to burst.

these billionaires are going to lose a lot of money soon (on paper) and its going to get messy. The networks are going to turn on the NBA. Salaries are going to have to come down for the players and they won't know how to deal with it.

I predict Silver gets replaced within 12 months.

Luka trade was a panic move. They lifted the curtain too much and it was sloppy.

Firmly believe analytics ruined this game just like it did baseball. Just my opinion of course. I don't find the games to be compelling at all these days until the playoffs roll around

[WWSRD]

I'm sorry I called you a grown man.

Like I said, nothing but insults, no debate, no discussion about anything basketball related, let me know when you have something of substance to say to refute what I've said.

He copy pasted his whole initial post in another thread too, guess it didn't get enough traction, but maybe he'll watch a 3rd game someday

The creator of that thread asked me to put that post in his thread as he liked it and it was relevant to the topic. Don't be so rude.

[LarSiN]

Not sure how I was rude, but sorry bud

[WWSRD]

Not sure how I was rude, but sorry bud

Apology accepted.

[LarSiN]

Some dude on Twitter explaining the dynamics at play:

Read on Twitter

check first post

Yeah, not really an A+ analysis, it has logical holes you can drive a truck through and some false information to boot.

If the whole point of trading Luka to the Lakers is to intentionally make the Mavs a bad team to plausibly enable the ownership using the threat of moving them to Las Vegas, why not just trade Luka to a team like Utah for the mountain of first round picks they have and accomplish it immediately? They could easily have made the Mavs terrible quickly by trading Luka for rebuilding pieces and Kyrie as well, trade off all the vets, tank, and start a full on Philly style rebuild that massively accelerates the timeline. Without that this plan likely can't come to fruition for nearly half a decade because Davis is likely still going to be a superstar for years to come, this team will be very competitive in the short term.

The false information is that the Mavs spoke to no other teams, we actually know they talked to at least one other team and suspicion is it was the Buck to see if they could get Giannis for Luka (obviously the answer was no, and this is not an unexpected response). This further emphasizes that they didn't want the team to take a step back, they want to be competitive now, again the whole "intentionally making the team bad" angle looks ridiculous.

None of what was written makes any sense, especially when you consider that threatening to leave Dallas is absolutely insane for any ownership considering that Dallas is the fourth largest metro area in the entire country, no one in their right mind would even consider leaving it for Las Vegas which is the 29th largest metro area with less than a third the population, it's virtually a non-threat. What happens if Dallas just calls the owners' bluff and says move the team? You don't think Dallas will be first in line for an expansion team that would otherwise have gone to Vegas?

Pretty solid discounting of that thread (not to say it's ALL wrong, but this makes sense too)

Read on Twitter

[tsherkin]

Firmly believe analytics ruined this game just like it did baseball. Just my opinion of course. I don't find the games to be compelling at all these days until the playoffs roll around

Depends on who you're watching, as it always did. And the 3s aren't that far different from the long 2s teams were popping off in volume back then. Watch Denver play. Or New York. Or Phoenix. Etc. There are loads of teams who do plenty besides bomb threes.

[WWSRD]

check first post

Yeah, not really an A+ analysis, it has logical holes you can drive a truck through and some false information to boot.

If the whole point of trading Luka to the Lakers is to intentionally make the Mavs a bad team to plausibly enable the ownership using the threat of moving them to Las Vegas, why not just trade Luka to a team like Utah for the mountain of first round picks they have and accomplish it immediately? They could easily have made the Mavs terrible quickly by trading Luka for rebuilding pieces and Kyrie as well, trade off all the vets, tank, and start a full on Philly style rebuild that massively accelerates the timeline. Without that this plan likely can't come to fruition for nearly half a decade because Davis is likely still going to be a superstar for years to come, this team will be very competitive in the short term.

The false information is that the Mavs spoke to no other teams, we actually know they talked to at least one other team and suspicion is it was the Buck to see if they could get Giannis for Luka (obviously the answer was no, and this is not an unexpected response). This further emphasizes that they didn't want the team to take a step back, they want to be competitive now, again the whole "intentionally making the team bad" angle looks ridiculous.

None of what was written makes any sense, especially when you consider that threatening to leave Dallas is absolutely insane for any ownership considering that Dallas is the fourth largest metro area in the entire country, no one in their right mind would even consider leaving it for Las Vegas which is the 29th largest metro area with less than a third the population, it's virtually a non-threat. What happens if Dallas just calls the owners' bluff and says move the team? You don't think Dallas will be first in line for an expansion team that would otherwise have gone to Vegas?

Pretty solid discounting of that thread (not to say it's ALL wrong, but this makes sense too)

Read on Twitter

To his 1st point:
The trade had to be with the Lakers. Getting Luka to that franchise is a big part of this and why the league enabled/encouraged it.

So you need to match salaries, so it would have to be either Davis or LeBron going back. I guess they could have combined like a bunch of smaller contract but if Reaves is your centerpiece here, then it gets extra suspicious. As well, I don't think the Lakers have THAT many 1st rounders they could have traded. This guy's 1st point is not a good one.

To his second point:
Moving team to Vegas may be not be preferred but may still be the fallback option in case they don't get what they want in Dallas. Also, we don't know its a move to Vegas, that's just an assumption on people's part.
This point is somewhat solid, but we really don't know the specifics of what or where a relocation would look like. Maybe the Adelson's were promised a bunch of Euro NBA franchises.

Decent point. Hadn't looked at it form this angle but I don't now whether or not they do or don't want to get back to Vegas.

To his Third point:
Yes Dallas is bigger but an NBA arena/Casino/Hotel in Vegas, where people go to blow cash in a concentrated environment, sounds pretty juicy. Having an NBA team as past of your Vegas experience, would give you a big leg up on competition.

Want to go see Rod Stewart perform or an NBA game. Most dudes going to see the game.

To his 4th point:
How much is Luka in LA worth to the NBA vs. the relocation fee? I don't know and neither does he.


To his 5th point:

Yes, more teams does mean dilution. But it also means more revenue. If it wasn't profitable overall, they wouldn't do it. Some owners may be against but it only happens if most owners are in favor, given the voting process. This was his worst point of the five.

Adam Loewy's arguments are a lot stronger than Joe Pompliano's. And Joe, like many in the media, cannot account for the sole sourcing to the Lakers and very poor return. That's the smoking gun.

There's no explanation for why the other Lakers 1st and like 3 picks swaps aren't included.

Which leads back to his 1st point. It's not just about gutting the team for future assets. LA had to be involved.
They could have traded to OKC, no? Contracts that aren't SGA + infinite picks? Pair Luka and SGA ? Having a powerhouse in OKC isn't what NBA wants though so they didn't do that.

I'm sure the Adelson's are smart but this was sloppy. I'm guessing their plans not coming together got them real pissed and they said F it and just did it. Pair that, with a desperate NBA, a commissioner on the hot seat, and here we are.

[agkagk]

Lots of conversations going on with ratings of nba at a 20 year low. With the Luka trade finalized theres lots of questions of why this happened and where is the NBA going with their product.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=0YpMScWXY2zRUqR8fH-usg

Is this a really long winded way of saying “Saudi oil money”?

[Tha Cynic]

I read that Rich Paul and Lebron were involved with a group of investors looking to start a new league as a competitor to the NBa but didn’t pay too much attention to it and thought it was fluff. Could this actually happen? I don’t see it

[Westside Gunn]

new league? with all the kinds of entertainment available to the average person today, netflix, amazon, paramount, 4 brands of wrestling with their own networks, UFC, boxing, podcasts, endless scrolling on tiktok, and other sports leagues, who is going to watch a 2nd basketball league?

Everyones trying to compete for your attention in a world full of distractions

[wegotthabeet]

By the way, here's a reddit link that explains why declining ratings in the United States isn't really the huge problem some think it is.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBATalk/comments/1hmnr1y/tv_ratings_decline_in_usa_is_not_really_a_problem/

The upshot is that business is booming internationally with viewership up in a lot of countries, likely part of that is the number of NBA players and stars that are from other countries (Jokic, Giannis, Luka, Shai, and more).

I wonder if the NBA’s next big move on expansion is to Europe, including possibly moving some current franchises there to create a Euro division.

I could easily see a division of 6 Euro clubs, one in each of England, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal or even possibly Austria.

This, but think even bigger. It's obvious the only path forward for this league is to cater to a much wider international audience.

The two biggest issues are:

1. Too many games. Not enough value in each individual game.

2. Not enough games scheduled during prime time watchable hours for Europe or Asia. A game at 1:00 PM in Paris would air at 8:00PM in Beijing for example.

The media rights with Tencent in China are up for renewal this year. The last deal was worth $300 million per year, so the potential to grow exponentially is there. The problem is that most of the games are played at 7 to 10 AM in China or between 1 to 4 AM in Europe.

I could see a near future where the NBA poaches the biggest Euroleague clubs, gets other major football brands to sign on and explores new markets too. Logistics can't work under the current season structure so the season would have to be completely reinvented and reduced to 1 or 2 games per week for each team.

[Raps in 4]

Horst is scrambling to try and salvage the Bucks. I'd be shocked if Giannis isn't a Laker very soon. Luka and Giannis threepeating will draw obvious comparisons to Kobe and Shaq and drive up ratings. Silver will be very pleased.