Retro Player of the Year 2012-13 — Lebron James

[ShaqAttac]

BRON
One of the goats doin goat things. 66 Dubs and MVP and Chip. Even tho wade hurt he still got it done.
DUNCAN
beat steph and almost beat bron and swept KDs sweeper. Great D and okay O. B2B chips if allen didn't go BANG
PG
took bron and wade and bosh to 7. Good d and good O.
KOBE
almost carried scrubs to the pos but got hurt. great O.
STEPH
carried Dubs to 50 dubs and went crazy in the offs. Cooked denver and took san antonio to 6. KD had great RS but mega choked in POs

[EmpireFalls]

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

[Djoker]

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

Lebron never had close to the defensive impact of big men. It's not a dig at him but just a fact given his very small contribution to paint protection. I would vote at least Gasol, Noah, Dwight, Duncan, and KG in some order all ahead of him.

With that said, I do consider this season as Lebron's likely defensive peak. He was very good for a SF.

[AEnigma]

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

Lebron never had close to the defensive impact of big men. It's not a dig at him but just a fact given his very small contribution to paint protection. I would vote at least Gasol, Noah, Dwight, Duncan, and KG in some order all ahead of him.

With that said, I do consider this season as Lebron's likely defensive peak. He was very good for a SF.

You have voted for less deserving non-bigs in much more defensively competitive years.

But yes, as with 2009, I do not think he actually deserves to win over a year like Marc’s.

[Djoker]

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

Lebron never had close to the defensive impact of big men. It's not a dig at him but just a fact given his very small contribution to paint protection. I would vote at least Gasol, Noah, Dwight, Duncan, and KG in some order all ahead of him.

With that said, I do consider this season as Lebron's likely defensive peak. He was very good for a SF.

You have voted for less deserving non-bigs in much more defensively competitive years.

But yes, as with 2009, I do not think he actually deserves to win over a year like Marc’s.

Such as what?

I'm generally not high on non-bigs defensively. I don't think they should ever be DPOY contenders with very rare exceptions.

[AEnigma]

Lebron never had close to the defensive impact of big men. It's not a dig at him but just a fact given his very small contribution to paint protection. I would vote at least Gasol, Noah, Dwight, Duncan, and KG in some order all ahead of him.

With that said, I do consider this season as Lebron's likely defensive peak. He was very good for a SF.

You have voted for less deserving non-bigs in much more defensively competitive years.

But yes, as with 2009, I do not think he actually deserves to win over a year like Marc’s.

Such as what?

Slater Martin (multiple times), Paul Seymour, Dennis Johnson, Sidney Moncrief (multiple times), and Michael Jordan were all guards who received third place votes from you.

I'm generally not high on non-bigs defensively. I don't think they should ever be DPOY contenders with very rare exceptions.

You also gave multiple votes, including for first place, to forwards like Dave DeBusschere, Bobby Jones, and Buck Williams.

And I am not pointing that out to suggest that means you must in turn put Lebron on the ballot this year: even among non-bigs, Paul George was on par defensively, and if you care less about minutes, then no, I do not think anyone would argue Lebron was offering more defensive value per possession than someone like Garnett was. You can validly prefer the range of defensive talent in this era to what was present in the 1950s or from 1970-92. However, throughout the project you have certainly not had this dedicated commitment to only voting for bigs, and the willingness to repeatedly relax that supposed standard for guards further calls into question the idea that you are just engaging in a cold analysis of paint protection.

[Djoker]

You have voted for less deserving non-bigs in much more defensively competitive years.

But yes, as with 2009, I do not think he actually deserves to win over a year like Marc’s.

Such as what?

Slater Martin (multiple times), Paul Seymour, Dennis Johnson, Sidney Moncrief (multiple times), and Michael Jordan were all guards who received third place votes from you.

I'm generally not high on non-bigs defensively. I don't think they should ever be DPOY contenders with very rare exceptions.

You also gave multiple votes, including for first place, to forwards like Dave DeBusschere, Bobby Jones, and Buck Williams.

And I am not pointing that out to suggest that means you must in turn put Lebron on the ballot this year: even among non-bigs, Paul George was on par defensively, and if you care less about minutes, then no, I do not think anyone would argue Lebron was offering more defensive value per possession than someone like Garnett was. You can validly prefer the range of defensive talent in this era to what was present in the 1950s or from 1970-92. However, throughout the project you have certainly not had this dedicated commitment to only voting for bigs, and the willingness to repeatedly relax that supposed standard for guards further calls into question the idea that you are just engaging in a cold analysis of paint protection.

I justified those choices in those particular threads but generally in many of those years there weren't many elite defensive bigs to choose from. For instance in the mid to late 80's, it's Hakeem, Eaton and then not really anyone else who stands out. Were those years more defensively competitive? Or the late 50's where after Russell I honestly struggled to even come up with names to vote for? Think I voted Pettit one year which was kind of a shot in the dark.

In an actually defensively competitive era like the 90's with lots of good defensive bigs like Hakeem. Robinson, Ewing, Mutombo, Mourning etc. I wouldn't think of voting for a perimeter player. Or the 60's with Russell, Wilt and Thurmond getting my votes every year. 2013 didn't have the same overall quality of bigs but on the defensive side it was again quite strong with Dwight, Duncan, KG, Noah, Gasol, Hibbert... A perimeter player wouldn't and didn't get much consideration from me against that kind of field. The years where I did vote for perimeter players were years that I didn't really think there were any bigs worth voting for.

[OhayoKD]

Such as what?

Slater Martin (multiple times), Paul Seymour, Dennis Johnson, Sidney Moncrief (multiple times), and Michael Jordan were all guards who received third place votes from you.

I'm generally not high on non-bigs defensively. I don't think they should ever be DPOY contenders with very rare exceptions.

You also gave multiple votes, including for first place, to forwards like Dave DeBusschere, Bobby Jones, and Buck Williams.

And I am not pointing that out to suggest that means you must in turn put Lebron on the ballot this year: even among non-bigs, Paul George was on par defensively, and if you care less about minutes, then no, I do not think anyone would argue Lebron was offering more defensive value per possession than someone like Garnett was. You can validly prefer the range of defensive talent in this era to what was present in the 1950s or from 1970-92. However, throughout the project you have certainly not had this dedicated commitment to only voting for bigs, and the willingness to repeatedly relax that supposed standard for guards further calls into question the idea that you are just engaging in a cold analysis of paint protection.

I justified those choices in those particular threads but generally in many of those years there weren't many elite defensive bigs to choose from. For instance in the mid to late 80's, it's Hakeem, Eaton and then not really anyone else who stands out. Were those years more defensively competitive? Or the late 50's where after Russell I honestly struggled to even come up with names to vote for? Think I voted Pettit one year which was kind of a shot in the dark.

In an actually defensively competitive era like the 90's with lots of good defensive bigs like Hakeem. Robinson, Ewing, Mutombo, Mourning etc. I wouldn't think of voting for a perimeter player. Or the 60's with Russell, Wilt and Thurmond getting my votes every year. 2013 didn't have the same overall quality of bigs but on the defensive side it was again quite strong with Dwight, Duncan, KG, Noah, Gasol, Hibbert... A perimeter player wouldn't and didn't get much consideration from me against that kind of field. The years where I did vote for perimeter players were years that I didn't really think there were any bigs worth voting for.

You literally voted Jordan over a teammate who offers vastly more paint-protection than he does:

Spoiler:

Distribution went

Oakley 13
Corzine 9
Pippen 8
Grant 6
Jordan 3
Sam Vincient 2
Rory Sparrow 1
Elston Turner 1

(Doesn't add up exactly to 40 as there were a couple splits)

Some notes:
-> rim-load only tracks usage, not efficacy, I'd say Oakley was very effective, Corzine not, Pippen Grant and Vincient were also effective, Sparrow and Turner not.
-> Jordan was very effective the one time the other team drove, but the first 2 times he's credited as the paint-protector were quick possessions where the other team didn't really try to drive.
-> Oakley had the most possessions where if I gave secondary credit he'd also be the #2, Grant and Pippen would come after


As a side note, I'm honestly suprised how much Pippen and Grant (and to a degree even Sam Vincient) were doing defensively here. I was pretty confident Oakley was the real paint-protecting lead from the first time I watched these games(though maybe I underrated the extent), but it might be worth tracking more games to see if everyone else's performance was something happening regularly.

Spoiler:

New York overall
Oakley - 15
Ewing - 13

Chicago overall
Pippen - 15
Grant - 7
Cartwright - 6

New York with Ewing (22 Possessions)

Ewing - 13
Oakley - 5

Overall

Pippen/Oakley - 15
Ewing - 13
Grant - 7
Cartwright - 6



Here is the distribution of IAs:

Overall
Ewing - 3
Pippen/Grant - 1

Even at 22 primarily being occupied by forcing Tony Parker to run, pressuring san antonio to run towards more defenders 9 times, and being his team's primary perimiter defender on nearly half the possessions, Lebron still was noted as a primary/co-primary twice as often and every single one of those instances had him being the last line of defense for a longer period of time than 2 of 3 possessions i gave to Jordan (both which almost immediately ended before the play could develop).
And that was Lebron at small-forward, not as power-forward which he literally bulked up to play in Miami specifically so he could protect the paint more.

If you care so much about paint-protection, guards have zero business being grouped with wings:

Spoiler:

During Kidd’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 3 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 1 and ineffective in 1. Kidd was also given 10 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Kidd was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Kidd averaged, 0.075 PPs, 0.025 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.25 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.

The only other defender all these inputs have been tracked for is 97 Hakeem. During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions of the 6th game of the 97 WCF, I gave him 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.

The only other guards to have their PPs counted are Micheal Jordan, Sam Vinceint, and BJ Armstrong. Jordan tallied 3 PPs in the first 40 possessions of game 3 of the 1988 ECSF between New York and Chicago. Sam Vincient tallied 2. Jordan tallied 1 PP in the first 40 possessions of the 4th game of the 1991 ECF. Armstrong also tallied 1.

For a comparison to wings(over the first 40 defensive possessions for their respective teams), Oakley, Pippen, and Grant tallied 13, 8, and 6 PPs respectively in the aforementioned 88 game. In the aforementioned 91 game, Pippen and Grant had 14 PPs each. In the final game of the 94 ECSF between New York and Chicago, Oakley and Pippen tallied 15 PPs and Grant tallied 7. In the 86 Finals, Reid tallied 5

Lebron's teams on average have been 3.5 points better with him on average, over 13-years. Maybe you should watch games instead of box-scores.

Speaking of

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

Here's how a 22-year old version of the player Djoker said peaked defensively this year fared through the first 40 possessions of the 2007 finals:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2431777&p=116555458#p116555458

Paint-Protection

Spoiler:

-> 5 PPs
-> 3 EPPs
-> 1 IPPs
-> 9 IAs

Perimeter Defense

Spoiler:

-> 16 PPDs
-> 9 EPPDs
-> 3 IPPDs

Deciding a guy who outputs -3+ impact over 13 years isn't a top 5 defender at his defensive peak because he doesn't protect the paint enough, and then voting someone who offers less than almost every starter on his teams top 3 is comedy.

[OhayoKD]

Steph had way higher playoff EPM that year (+5.9 for Steph vs. +2.9 for LeBron). Steph’s had way higher playoff RAPTOR that year (+8.7 for Steph vs. +4.7 for LeBron).

Lebron James torches Steph in RAPTOR non-box for the year.

There’s so many problems with this statement that it’s hard to know where to start.

To begin with, it is 100% false. Steph blows LeBron away in 2015 in “RAPTOR non-box” in RS. Steph blows LeBron away in 2015 in “RAPTOR non-box” in the playoffs. And Steph blows LeBron away in 2015 in “RAPTOR non-box” in the combined ‘full season’ version.

True, it was 2016 and 2017 Lebron knocked Steph for the full-season.

Here, let's replace that:
https://www.cryptbeam.com/rapm/

Both have approaches which favor them that year. So unless you're willing to make an argument for one methodology being more useful for the comp than the other (which would require actually understanding the stat), your case for Steph boils down to ad-populum.

, of course, that’s ignoring the fact that you’re resorting to looking at a component of an overall metric, which is silly.

Looking at impact while assessing impact, crazy.

quote]and there is the matter of a team that consistently played sub-30 basketball when he missed games (including with kyrie and love) going 12-2 in the East with Love missing nearly all of the playoffs, Kyrie being injured for 2 series and barely playing in the conference finals (a blow-out sweep of a 60-win opponent, 50-win by srs), and JR missing games, and then taking a 2-1 lead Steph's 67-win team, which looked on pace to make the conference finals without him the following year.

Of course, maybe that’s because other players you don’t mention actually stepped up and happened to play surprisingly well in the playoffs. That’s actually what the impact metrics tell us. But of course you’d prefer to handwave and give all credit to LeBron, despite box and impact data not suggesting that’s right.[/quote]
And by "impact metrics" you mean a few games worth of on/off samples consisting of tiny smatterings between various games because Lebron played...nearly every minute?

Gee, I wonder what would happen if we extended that postseason sample of yours to 15-17...Surely it would not be Lebron, with or without kyrie and kevin love, who sees his lineups spike?

You can argue players who never evidenced star impact without playing with Lebron conveniently turned into stars for the tiny stretches of minutes it's continent for your narrative. But personally, I think most people will find "player who went from averaging 36 minutes to 42 probably had something to do with the team still cooking when the 2nd and 3rd best player were compromised due to injury" a more reasonable interpretation. "Obviously", even.

Steph also had higher BPM in the playoffs (8.8 for Steph vs. 7.9 for LeBron). And more Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 mins in the playoffs.

Do you think spamming outputs barely anyone voting cares about is going to make people care about them? Lebron anchored a -5 playoff defense (sans) that had it's second best performance against Steph's Warriors. Despite a comical advantage in terms of help, the Warriors didn't look much better heading into the finals and are potentially losing the finals if not for iggy's insertion and Lebron injuring his head.

And we haven't even gotten to Memphis.

“Spamming outputs” is otherwise known as marshaling the large amount of evidence that is contrary to your claim/

You can call Glorified ad-populum, a "large amount of evidence" if you want, but as long as there are correlative approaches which favor Lebron, the number of times the approaches that favor have been replicated or endorsed is not meaningful evidence for basically everyone here. Just as It would not be considered meaningful evidence in basically any lane of academia, barring the near complete and total absence of contradictory information.

Anyways, as usual, the idea that LeBron “anchored” the Cavaliers defense is odd. LeBron had a below-average 4.5 rim contests per 100 possessions in those playoffs.

Reality is often "odd" for box-watchers:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=108228715#p108228715

Remember when you and Djoker threw up a 187 minute sample because over 2800 minutes of lineup-data Lebron looked far more valuable over an alleged "better defender" a guy who was a negative by lineup-data and full-games that same year on his previous team? The data has strongly supported Lebron being the best defender on every team he's ever been on since he turned 23 up until he played next to Anthony Davis.

With Lebron, there's no need to cherrypick 5 games (and then falsely report the defensive rating of one of those games to create the illusion of a strong minutes correlation). Because Lebron's an actual defensive anchor. Not a made-up one

And you can talk about the Warriors “potentially losing the finals” but that’s not what happened, nor was it even particularly close to happening.

An overtime away from being 3-0 down is "not particularly close"

There's a reason finals MVP went to "who stopped Lebron", not Steph Curry

[EmpireFalls]

Why couldn’t lebron shut down Paul George in the playoff series if he was really the DPOY?

[capfan33]

I’ll just say I have no idea how one can put MJ on a ballot while saying there’s no way LeBron is deserving. Mj wasn’t even the best defender on his own team much less deserving of a top3 finish in the league. Lebron shouldn’t win either but putting him 3rd is much more justifiable.

[Djoker]

Slater Martin (multiple times), Paul Seymour, Dennis Johnson, Sidney Moncrief (multiple times), and Michael Jordan were all guards who received third place votes from you.


You also gave multiple votes, including for first place, to forwards like Dave DeBusschere, Bobby Jones, and Buck Williams.

And I am not pointing that out to suggest that means you must in turn put Lebron on the ballot this year: even among non-bigs, Paul George was on par defensively, and if you care less about minutes, then no, I do not think anyone would argue Lebron was offering more defensive value per possession than someone like Garnett was. You can validly prefer the range of defensive talent in this era to what was present in the 1950s or from 1970-92. However, throughout the project you have certainly not had this dedicated commitment to only voting for bigs, and the willingness to repeatedly relax that supposed standard for guards further calls into question the idea that you are just engaging in a cold analysis of paint protection.

I justified those choices in those particular threads but generally in many of those years there weren't many elite defensive bigs to choose from. For instance in the mid to late 80's, it's Hakeem, Eaton and then not really anyone else who stands out. Were those years more defensively competitive? Or the late 50's where after Russell I honestly struggled to even come up with names to vote for? Think I voted Pettit one year which was kind of a shot in the dark.

In an actually defensively competitive era like the 90's with lots of good defensive bigs like Hakeem. Robinson, Ewing, Mutombo, Mourning etc. I wouldn't think of voting for a perimeter player. Or the 60's with Russell, Wilt and Thurmond getting my votes every year. 2013 didn't have the same overall quality of bigs but on the defensive side it was again quite strong with Dwight, Duncan, KG, Noah, Gasol, Hibbert... A perimeter player wouldn't and didn't get much consideration from me against that kind of field. The years where I did vote for perimeter players were years that I didn't really think there were any bigs worth voting for.

You literally voted Jordan over a teammate who offers vastly more paint-protection than he does:

Spoiler:

Distribution went

Oakley 13
Corzine 9
Pippen 8
Grant 6
Jordan 3
Sam Vincient 2
Rory Sparrow 1
Elston Turner 1

(Doesn't add up exactly to 40 as there were a couple splits)

Some notes:
-> rim-load only tracks usage, not efficacy, I'd say Oakley was very effective, Corzine not, Pippen Grant and Vincient were also effective, Sparrow and Turner not.
-> Jordan was very effective the one time the other team drove, but the first 2 times he's credited as the paint-protector were quick possessions where the other team didn't really try to drive.
-> Oakley had the most possessions where if I gave secondary credit he'd also be the #2, Grant and Pippen would come after


As a side note, I'm honestly suprised how much Pippen and Grant (and to a degree even Sam Vincient) were doing defensively here. I was pretty confident Oakley was the real paint-protecting lead from the first time I watched these games(though maybe I underrated the extent), but it might be worth tracking more games to see if everyone else's performance was something happening regularly.

Spoiler:

New York overall
Oakley - 15
Ewing - 13

Chicago overall
Pippen - 15
Grant - 7
Cartwright - 6

New York with Ewing (22 Possessions)

Ewing - 13
Oakley - 5

Overall

Pippen/Oakley - 15
Ewing - 13
Grant - 7
Cartwright - 6



Here is the distribution of IAs:

Overall
Ewing - 3
Pippen/Grant - 1

Even at 22 primarily being occupied by forcing Tony Parker to run, pressuring san antonio to run towards more defenders 9 times, and being his team's primary perimiter defender on nearly half the possessions, Lebron still was noted as a primary/co-primary twice as often and every single one of those instances had him being the last line of defense for a longer period of time than 2 of 3 possessions i gave to Jordan (both which almost immediately ended before the play could develop).
And that was Lebron at small-forward, not as power-forward which he literally bulked up to play in Miami specifically so he could protect the paint more.

If you care so much about paint-protection, guards have zero business being grouped with wings:

Spoiler:

During Kidd’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 3 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 1 and ineffective in 1. Kidd was also given 10 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Kidd was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Kidd averaged, 0.075 PPs, 0.025 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.25 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.

The only other defender all these inputs have been tracked for is 97 Hakeem. During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions of the 6th game of the 97 WCF, I gave him 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.

The only other guards to have their PPs counted are Micheal Jordan, Sam Vinceint, and BJ Armstrong. Jordan tallied 3 PPs in the first 40 possessions of game 3 of the 1988 ECSF between New York and Chicago. Sam Vincient tallied 2. Jordan tallied 1 PP in the first 40 possessions of the 4th game of the 1991 ECF. Armstrong also tallied 1.

For a comparison to wings(over the first 40 defensive possessions for their respective teams), Oakley, Pippen, and Grant tallied 13, 8, and 6 PPs respectively in the aforementioned 88 game. In the aforementioned 91 game, Pippen and Grant had 14 PPs each. In the final game of the 94 ECSF between New York and Chicago, Oakley and Pippen tallied 15 PPs and Grant tallied 7. In the 86 Finals, Reid tallied 5

Lebron's teams on average have been 3.5 points better with him on average, over 13-years. Maybe you should watch games instead of box-scores.

Speaking of

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

Here's how a 22-year old version of the player Djoker said peaked defensively this year fared through the first 40 possessions of the 2007 finals:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2431777&p=116555458#p116555458

Paint-Protection

Spoiler:

-> 5 PPs
-> 3 EPPs
-> 1 IPPs
-> 9 IAs

Perimeter Defense

Spoiler:

-> 16 PPDs
-> 9 EPPDs
-> 3 IPPDs

Deciding a guy who outputs -3+ impact over 13 years isn't a top 5 defender at his defensive peak because he doesn't protect the paint enough, and then voting someone who offers less than almost every starter on his teams top 3 is comedy.

You tracked 40 possessions of one game in 1988 and you think that means something...

I voted Jordan over Oakley because he played 6 mpg more and Jordan is one of those exceptions who actually offered plenty of rim protection despite being a guard. 1.6 bpg is pretty indicative of that and he finished #14 in blocks that year but also from watching film of that season. He had a tremendous motor and caused a ton of disruption not just with his steals but many more with deflections and always excelled as a man-to-man defender. All that put together makes one of the best non-big defensive seasons in league history.

And, in 1988, it really was a weak field of defenders beyond Hakeem and Eaton.

I’ll just say I have no idea how one can put MJ on a ballot while saying there’s no way LeBron is deserving. Mj wasn’t even the best defender on his own team much less deserving of a top3 finish in the league. Lebron shouldn’t win either but putting him 3rd is much more justifiable.

I wouldn't put MJ #3 against the 2013 field either. It was just a lot of great defensive bigs and on good defensive teams too. Something that wasn't the case in 1988. It really varies season by season. And I'd also have 2013 Lebron 3rd in 1988 behind Hakeem and Eaton for what it's worth.

But anyways, neither Jordan nor Lebron are anywhere close to great big man defenders as far as impact goes.

[Djoker]

VOTING POST

POY

1. Lebron James - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. MVP. Finals MVP. Easy choice. Not in terms of performance because he didn't have great PS production, but in terms of skillset, I consider this Lebron's best season start to finish. Starting from next year, he couldn't play 82 games at a high level on both ends of the floor anymore and started managing his effort but this year the dial was set to turbo and it's one of the all-time greats at his absolute best. Averaged 26.8/8.0/7.3 on +10.5 rTS with 3.0 topg in the RS then 25.9/8.4/6.6 on +7.3 rTS with 3.0 topg in the PS.

2. Kevin Durant - 1st Team All-NBA. KD continues to grow as a playmaker and defender. OKC looks like the best team in the league by SRS playing at 65-win pace but it's all for naught when Westbrook goes down injured in the PS. What could have been a great PS run and possibly a championship and a #1 finish is a broken dream instead. KD played great but it is what it is. Averaged 28.1/7.9/4.6 on +11.2 rTS with 3.5 topg in the RS then 30.8/9.0/6.3 on +4.5 rTS with 3.9 topg in the PS.

3. Chris Paul - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Offensive maestro leading an elite offense on the Clippers, The PS was disappointing as Blake Griffin got hurt and they lost to the Grizzlies in the 1st Round. CP3 did his part though. Averaged 16.9/3.7/9.7 on +5.9 rTS in the RS then 22.8/4.0/6.3 on +11.7 rTS in the PS.

4. Tim Duncan - 1st Team All-NBA. 2nd Team All-Defense. The Spurs had yet another amazing season and Duncan was the most impactful player still playing like an all-star on offense and an elite defender at the same time. In the Finals, he was probably the best player in the series until Ray Allen hit the shot of shots and well on his way to a 5th Finals MVP. He wasn't the best player in the world and well behind the top 3 on the ballot IMO but it was still a great year by a great player turning back the clock. Averaged 17.8/9.9/2.7 on +1.9 rTS in the RS then 18.1/10.2/1.9 on -0.1 rTS in the PS.

5. Stephen Curry - Not a lot of accolades but he already had the makings of a superstar. The young Warriors were becoming a threat as they were the only team in the West that looked good against the Spurs. Steph finally put his injuries behind him and become an historic offensive weapon. Averaged 22.9/4.0/6.9 on +5.4 rTS in the RS then 23.4/3.8/8.1 on +3.6 rTS in the PS.

HM:

Kobe Bryant - 1st Team All-NBA. Injured before the PS. Otherwise probably gets at least #4.

OPOY

1. Lebron James

2. Kevin Durant

3. Chris Paul

As in the last few threads, the top 3 are all offensive superstars so same order as POY ballot.

DPOY

1. Marc Gasol - Anchored the #2 Grizzlies defense. Strong PS defensively as well.

2. Joakim Noah - I like his high revving motor. He's a far superior rebounder to Marc Gasol. Both are terrific paint protectors. Anchored the #4 Bulls defense.

3. Tim Duncan - Smallest load in the RS. Great PS run.

[OhayoKD]

I justified those choices in those particular threads but generally in many of those years there weren't many elite defensive bigs to choose from. For instance in the mid to late 80's, it's Hakeem, Eaton and then not really anyone else who stands out. Were those years more defensively competitive? Or the late 50's where after Russell I honestly struggled to even come up with names to vote for? Think I voted Pettit one year which was kind of a shot in the dark.

In an actually defensively competitive era like the 90's with lots of good defensive bigs like Hakeem. Robinson, Ewing, Mutombo, Mourning etc. I wouldn't think of voting for a perimeter player. Or the 60's with Russell, Wilt and Thurmond getting my votes every year. 2013 didn't have the same overall quality of bigs but on the defensive side it was again quite strong with Dwight, Duncan, KG, Noah, Gasol, Hibbert... A perimeter player wouldn't and didn't get much consideration from me against that kind of field. The years where I did vote for perimeter players were years that I didn't really think there were any bigs worth voting for.

You literally voted Jordan over a teammate who offers vastly more paint-protection than he does:

Spoiler:

Distribution went

Oakley 13
Corzine 9
Pippen 8
Grant 6
Jordan 3
Sam Vincient 2
Rory Sparrow 1
Elston Turner 1

(Doesn't add up exactly to 40 as there were a couple splits)

Some notes:
-> rim-load only tracks usage, not efficacy, I'd say Oakley was very effective, Corzine not, Pippen Grant and Vincient were also effective, Sparrow and Turner not.
-> Jordan was very effective the one time the other team drove, but the first 2 times he's credited as the paint-protector were quick possessions where the other team didn't really try to drive.
-> Oakley had the most possessions where if I gave secondary credit he'd also be the #2, Grant and Pippen would come after


As a side note, I'm honestly suprised how much Pippen and Grant (and to a degree even Sam Vincient) were doing defensively here. I was pretty confident Oakley was the real paint-protecting lead from the first time I watched these games(though maybe I underrated the extent), but it might be worth tracking more games to see if everyone else's performance was something happening regularly.

Spoiler:

New York overall
Oakley - 15
Ewing - 13

Chicago overall
Pippen - 15
Grant - 7
Cartwright - 6

New York with Ewing (22 Possessions)

Ewing - 13
Oakley - 5

Overall

Pippen/Oakley - 15
Ewing - 13
Grant - 7
Cartwright - 6



Here is the distribution of IAs:

Overall
Ewing - 3
Pippen/Grant - 1

Even at 22 primarily being occupied by forcing Tony Parker to run, pressuring san antonio to run towards more defenders 9 times, and being his team's primary perimiter defender on nearly half the possessions, Lebron still was noted as a primary/co-primary twice as often and every single one of those instances had him being the last line of defense for a longer period of time than 2 of 3 possessions i gave to Jordan (both which almost immediately ended before the play could develop).
And that was Lebron at small-forward, not as power-forward which he literally bulked up to play in Miami specifically so he could protect the paint more.

If you care so much about paint-protection, guards have zero business being grouped with wings:

Spoiler:

During Kidd’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 3 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 1 and ineffective in 1. Kidd was also given 10 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Kidd was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Kidd averaged, 0.075 PPs, 0.025 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.25 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.

The only other defender all these inputs have been tracked for is 97 Hakeem. During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions of the 6th game of the 97 WCF, I gave him 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.

The only other guards to have their PPs counted are Micheal Jordan, Sam Vinceint, and BJ Armstrong. Jordan tallied 3 PPs in the first 40 possessions of game 3 of the 1988 ECSF between New York and Chicago. Sam Vincient tallied 2. Jordan tallied 1 PP in the first 40 possessions of the 4th game of the 1991 ECF. Armstrong also tallied 1.

For a comparison to wings(over the first 40 defensive possessions for their respective teams), Oakley, Pippen, and Grant tallied 13, 8, and 6 PPs respectively in the aforementioned 88 game. In the aforementioned 91 game, Pippen and Grant had 14 PPs each. In the final game of the 94 ECSF between New York and Chicago, Oakley and Pippen tallied 15 PPs and Grant tallied 7. In the 86 Finals, Reid tallied 5

Lebron's teams on average have been 3.5 points better with him on average, over 13-years. Maybe you should watch games instead of box-scores.

Speaking of

DPOY is an interesting discussion this year I’d like to hear more on that.

Here's how a 22-year old version of the player Djoker said peaked defensively this year fared through the first 40 possessions of the 2007 finals:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2431777&p=116555458#p116555458

Paint-Protection

Spoiler:

-> 5 PPs
-> 3 EPPs
-> 1 IPPs
-> 9 IAs

Perimeter Defense

Spoiler:

-> 16 PPDs
-> 9 EPPDs
-> 3 IPPDs

Deciding a guy who outputs -3+ impact over 13 years isn't a top 5 defender at his defensive peak because he doesn't protect the paint enough, and then voting someone who offers less than almost every starter on his teams top 3 is comedy.

You tracked 40 possessions of one game in 1988 and you think that means something...

*80 possessions. But hey, that is pretty small. Let's expand it:

Spoiler:

jordan
88-98
+1.1 drtg difference
90-99
+0.2 drtg difference
85-98
-1.1 drtg difference
84-99
-.5 drtg difference

Here's the wing you've given no DPOY votes to

Spoiler:

lebron 09-21
-3.68 drtg difference

Huh.

I think I'll do a bunch of Jordan games with my full defensive system after I finish with 03 Duncan and 09 Lebron. Anyone who's actually watched the games should know Jordan was never a significant rim protector, but I'd be delighted to put that on tape, with time-stamps, so I can watch you try and keep justifying these notions you totally got from watching film from that year.

I voted Jordan over Oakley because he played 6 mpg more

Lebron averaged >10 more minutes than Mozgov on a team that improved, in games Lebron played, by:
-> 4.8 points, 2015
-> 9.2 points, 2016
-> 3.5 points, 2017

Yet you claimed Mozgov was the better defender.

[Jaivl]

Of course the 2013 POY voting is somehow a Jordan thread. Never change, guys.

[One_and_Done]

1. Lebron

2. KD
3. CP3
4. Duncan
5. M.Gasol

Pretty straightforward year. Lebron remained the best player by far, all RS and playoffs. He's an easy #1. Similarly KD remained a clear #2.

CP3 was awesome this year, I blame his team more than anything else for not making it further.

Duncan was part of an ensemble cast, but he had some real throwback years from 12-14 after he slimmed down. His play in the PS especially was highly impactful. I delayed a bunch of people for 5th, but on balance I'd say it has to be Gasol. His underrated season, dragging his team to the WCFs, is impressive.

[70sFan]

Of course the 2013 POY voting is somehow a Jordan thread. Never change, guys.

Everything is a Jordan thread when OhayoKD is active.

[jjgp111292]

Of course the 2013 POY voting is somehow a Jordan thread. Never change, guys.

That one guy hijacking everything so he can grind an axe on Cheese Eyes' bald head with a copy/paste from his 200 page MJ Burn Book Google Doc?

[OhayoKD]

Of course the 2013 POY voting is somehow a Jordan thread. Never change, guys.

That one guy hijacking everything so he can grind an axe on Cheese Eyes' bald head with a copy/paste from his 200 page MJ Burn Book Google Doc?

I see we're misusing english again.

This is highjacking:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=115746823#p115746823

2 posts in response to a claim about Jordan is...not.

Everything is a Jordan thread when OhayoKD is active.

Jordan defenders incessantly complain about the post-counts of voters who voted lower on Jordan for half the project: *Crickets

Ohayo criticizes the actual reasoning of a vote: "Allow me to introduce myself".

[lessthanjake]

Lebron James torches Steph in RAPTOR non-box for the year.

There’s so many problems with this statement that it’s hard to know where to start.

To begin with, it is 100% false. Steph blows LeBron away in 2015 in “RAPTOR non-box” in RS. Steph blows LeBron away in 2015 in “RAPTOR non-box” in the playoffs. And Steph blows LeBron away in 2015 in “RAPTOR non-box” in the combined ‘full season’ version.

True, it was 2016 and 2017 Lebron knocked Steph for the full-season.

Here, let's replace that:
https://www.cryptbeam.com/rapm/

Both have approaches which favor them that year. So unless you're willing to make an argument for one methodology being more useful for the comp than the other (which would require actually understanding the stat), your case for Steph boils down to ad-populum.

And this is a good example of why I say we should always look at all the data we have. Methodological differences in a metric will make a difference and will often favor one player or the other in a particular comparison. Indeed, that’s inevitable. I point to a huge host of measures that have Steph ahead (and often by a good bit), while you point to one that has LeBron ahead. Looking at that, our baseline assumption should be that Steph was very likely more impactful and that methodological decisions in the exception probably just favored LeBron. And does that make sense here with the measure you pointed to? Yeah, it definitely does, because you pointed to a measure that is expressly PI RAPM like Engelmann’s, which uses a player’s prior RAPM values as the prior. As I’ve talked about before, while that method has benefits, that sort of RAPM will naturally have a lagged effect, where a player who is on the ascension will not see their RAPM fully reflect their impact for a couple years (and vice versa). It’s why those sorts of measures have LeBron’s RAPM peak in 2011, rather than 2009 or 2010. Obviously this is unfavorable for 2015 Steph Curry, who was on a rapid ascension. And, as I’ve shown, a wide variety of measures that don’t use that methodology consistently have Steph ahead in 2015. This is a really good example of why we should look at all available information in order to get a full picture, rather than focusing on one measure that might be unduly favorable or unfavorable to a particular player in a given comparison. If we look at all available information, we see a picture that is in clear contrast to what you’re trying to argue.

In any event, that is not a playoff measure, and the discussion was about playoffs. You’d already conceded that you can argue “pretty well” that Curry was better in the RS.

, of course, that’s ignoring the fact that you’re resorting to looking at a component of an overall metric, which is silly.

Looking at impact while assessing impact, crazy.

The entire metric is about impact. It’s just a question of how to get to the most accurate estimate of impact, and anyone who creates a metric with multiple components to it obviously has determined that each component increases the accuracy of the impact estimate. You just don’t like the result from the more accurate estimate and want to talk about a less accurate component. This is self-evidently a very weak position, but is unfortunately one you find yourself boxed into when trying to get the conclusion you require yourself to get to.

And, as previously discussed, to the extent you just want to argue against any use of a prior because you think any prior isn’t purely looking at “impact” then that means we should look at RAPM without a prior. But that favors Steph, as I’ve already explained to you! What you actually want is for us to use RAPM with some sort of basic prior that will favor LeBron, because if we use RAPM with no prior it favors Curry, and if we look at RAPM with very complex priors, it favors Curry. Needless to say, it’s a difficult rhetorical position for you to be in!

Of course, maybe that’s because other players you don’t mention actually stepped up and happened to play surprisingly well in the playoffs. That’s actually what the impact metrics tell us. But of course you’d prefer to handwave and give all credit to LeBron, despite box and impact data not suggesting that’s right.

And by "impact metrics" you mean a few games worth of on/off samples consisting of tiny smatterings between various games because Lebron played...nearly every minute?

Gee, I wonder what would happen if we extended that postseason sample of yours to 15-17...Surely it would not be Lebron, with or without kyrie and kevin love, who sees his lineups spike?

You can argue players who never evidenced star impact without playing with Lebron conveniently turned into stars for the tiny stretches of minutes its continent for your narrative. But personally, I think most people will find "player who went from averaging 36 minutes to 42 probably had something to do with the team still cooking when the 2nd and 3rd best player were compromised due to injury" a more reasonable interpretation. "Obviously", even.

The whole point here is that the Cavs had players that played abnormally well in those playoffs. It’s not actually surprising for that sort of thing to occur in a small sample, nor is it something we should necessarily expect from those same players again. Guys like Mozgov were really good in those playoffs! And it’s not just small playoff off samples telling us this. It’s also the other components of these metrics. For instance, Mozgov not only had a higher on/off RAPTOR than LeBron in those playoffs, but also had a higher box RAPTOR (obviously, his minutes were lower so he wasn’t actually as impactful in total, of course). We can see that this is a function of defense. And this is not surprising when we look at some defensive data we have. For instance, in those playoffs, Mozgov had 9.9 rim contests per 100 possessions, and a -16.5% FG%diff on his rim contests. And I’ll note that that led to the opponents’ rim accuracy being very low with him on the court (while the same was not true when he was off). That’s just one example using one player, of course. Overall, there’s every reason to believe that the Cavs just had players step up and do particularly well in a small sample, such that the team did well despite Kyrie and Love getting injured and LeBron having abnormal struggles with his shot. But of course you’d prefer to ignore that and just attribute anything positive to LeBron, even despite LeBron clearly having offensive struggles the entire postseason.

Steph also had higher BPM in the playoffs (8.8 for Steph vs. 7.9 for LeBron). And more Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 mins in the playoffs.

Do you think spamming outputs barely anyone voting cares about is going to make people care about them? Lebron anchored a -5 playoff defense (sans) that had it's second best performance against Steph's Warriors. Despite a comical advantage in terms of help, the Warriors didn't look much better heading into the finals and are potentially losing the finals if not for iggy's insertion and Lebron injuring his head.

And we haven't even gotten to Memphis.

“Spamming outputs” is otherwise known as marshaling the large amount of evidence that is contrary to your claim/

You can call Glorified ad-populum, a "large amount of evidence" if you want, but as long as there are correlative approaches which favor Lebron, the number of times the approaches that favor have been replicated or endorsed is not meaningful evidence for basically everyone here. Just as It would not be considered meaningful evidence in basically any lane of academia, barring the near complete and total absence of contradictory information.

I’ll refer back to what I said above about why we should look at all available information. When the vast majority of metrics say one thing but there’s one that says something different and we can easily identify methodological reasons why it’d end up coming to that different conclusion, the right response isn’t to throw our hands up in the air and say it’s a toss up. And it’s certainly not to say that the guy with one measure on his side was better, which is what you’ve done. The right response is to recognize that the data picture *as a whole* clearly supports one side of the argument. You don’t like me “spamming outputs” because it reveals how much you cherry-pick metrics that have output you like. Your approach just systematically indexes on positive noise and the most helpful methodological decisions you can find.

And lol at you talking about academia. You’re not old enough to have had any real involvement in “any lane of academia,” while I actually *really* have (as I’ve previously mentioned, I’ve been an editor of a major academic journal). Nothing any of us post here would get published in an academic journal—and your cherry-picking approach *certainly* wouldn’t. What I’m doing is at least somewhat akin to a lit review, while you’re just cherry-picking and handwaving to get to your preferred conclusion.

Anyways, as usual, the idea that LeBron “anchored” the Cavaliers defense is odd. LeBron had a below-average 4.5 rim contests per 100 possessions in those playoffs.

Reality is often "odd" for box-watchers:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=108228715#p108228715

Remember when you and Djoker threw up a 187 minute sample because over 2800 minutes of lineup-data Lebron looked far more valuable over an alleged "better defender" a guy who was a negative by lineup-data and full-games that same year on his previous team? The data has strongly supported Lebron being the best defender on every team he's ever been on since he turned 23 up until he played next to Anthony Davis.

With Lebron, there's no need to cherrypick 5 games (and then falsely report the defensive rating of one of those games to create the illusion of a strong minutes correlation). Because Lebron's an actual defensive anchor. Not a made-up one

As an initial matter, there was no substantive response to the fact that LeBron only had a below-average 4.5 rim contests per 100 possessions in those playoffs.

Instead, you chose to reprise this genuinely bizarre claim that I made a very specific argument that I absolutely did not make. I’d encourage anyone reading this to go to the linked thread, and read it and see if what I said matches on at all with what OhayoKD is saying I said. Spoiler Alert: It does not. I did not “thr[ow] up a 187 minute sample.” I didn’t talk about any samples at all! OhayoKD is literally just referring to me saying I agreed with a lengthy post by Djoker, in which Djoker did not even mention any 187 minute sample but that OhayoKD believes very briefly referred back to prior discussion in which OhayoKD complained that Djoker’s arguments in some part relied on a 189 minute sample. And he just keeps stating that I personally made this argument. Really weird stuff, and is something I objected to in the thread that OhayoKD links to.

In any event, though, it’s actually helpful for this to be linked to, not just because it shows how bizarre OhayoKD’s post is, but more generally because it actually demonstrates Djoker dealing very capably with OhayoKD’s arguments regarding 2015. So I’d encourage anyone to read that Djoker/OhayoKD exchange!

And you can talk about the Warriors “potentially losing the finals” but that’s not what happened, nor was it even particularly close to happening.

An overtime away from being 3-0 down is "not particularly close"

There's a reason finals MVP went to "who stopped Lebron", not Steph Curry

Lol. They were absolutely not “[a]n overtime away from being 3-0 down.” They were an overtime away from being 1-0 down. Obviously we definitely can’t assume that everything would’ve happened the same after that if Game 1 had gone differently. Meanwhile, back in actual reality, the Warriors won the 2015 Finals in 6 games, and outscored the Cavaliers by over 7 points a game. While it was a competitive series, the Cavaliers were not particularly close to winning. And, by the way, I’ll note that in that OT you refer to, LeBron went 1-4 with 2 turnovers. Another example of the fact that maybe if LeBron had played better those Finals actually *might* have been particularly close!