The reason the Raptors defense became elite

[Thaddy]

RJs stats in the last 10 are actually down as his usage has dropped. His efficiency has risen, as has his defence has looked quite good (which we are discussing here).

But yeah, your last program has shown you have no interest in having a legitimate conversation. Enjoy the game tonight man. I’m done here.

His defense looks good because teams have checked out before the break and the teams we have played suck.

Absolutely. You got it man. Nailed it. Great job.

Can you answer the question and discuss in good faith?

If not, just stop replying. Thanks.

[James_Raptors]

One of the reasons why id love to keep Mitchell on this team. He's getting really underrated.

what part of his game is underrated?
He came out of the draft as a defense first type of guard and he's never once had a + DBPM season in his entire career, including this season.And offensively he's only had a higher OBPM than Chomche, Temple, Orlando frickin Robinson and DJ Carton. He's 15th in total BPM. In fact this season is his lowest BPM of his career (-4.4).He's literally BARELY a back-up PG in the NBA and lucky to have a job. You could spin the bottle and get a more valuable PG asset.

[RoteSchroder]

One of the reasons why id love to keep Mitchell on this team. He's getting really underrated.

what part of his game is underrated?
He came out of the draft as a defense first type of guard and he's never once had a + DBPM season in his entire career, including this season.And offensively he's only had a higher OBPM than Chomche, Temple, Orlando frickin Robinson and DJ Carton. He's 15th in total BPM. In fact this season is his lowest BPM of his career (-4.4).He's literally BARELY a back-up PG in the NBA and lucky to have a job. You could spin the bottle and get a more valuable PG asset.

BPM needs to be used with context. It takes into account box score stats + team performance while he's on the court.

Defensive rating is largely based on DREB/BLKS/STLS

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

There are limitations on all box score stats – if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.

[DelAbbot]

One of the reasons why id love to keep Mitchell on this team. He's getting really underrated.

what part of his game is underrated?
He came out of the draft as a defense first type of guard and he's never once had a + DBPM season in his entire career, including this season.And offensively he's only had a higher OBPM than Chomche, Temple, Orlando frickin Robinson and DJ Carton. He's 15th in total BPM. In fact this season is his lowest BPM of his career (-4.4).He's literally BARELY a back-up PG in the NBA and lucky to have a job. You could spin the bottle and get a more valuable PG asset.

Relative to what we had to endure last 2-3 seasons, it's refreshing to see a strong POA defender despite his other shortcomings.

[ConSarnit]

One possible part of the equation (outside of easier schedule, better health, etc):

Poeltl's rim protection numbers have been much better over the past 10-12 games. He's been near elite over this stretch. What else has happened over those games? His MPG has been reduced to <28 mpg. Prior to mid-Jan Poeltl was playing a career high in MPG and his rim protection numbers were the worst they've been since his rookie season. It's possible that reducing Poeltl's work load/usage may have allowed a greater focus/effort on defense.

[Los_29]

All this while playing tons of young guys. Very impressive. Lets hope they can keep up the defensive effort.

[ConSarnit]

Honestly, our defense wasn't even that bad early in the year. It only looks bad because we turned the ball over so much.

Prior to Jan. 1 : 20.4ppg given up off of turnovers (5th worst in the league)

Last 10 game stretch: 14.9ppg given up (8th best in the league)

We got a 5.5ppg bump (a huge number) simply from not turning the ball over as much.

Less turnovers + fewer rookie minutes + Poeltl being a good/great rim protector (possibly due to reduced minutes) = much improved defense.

[TeamDisgruntled]

What was the SOS the past 10 games?

What’s that have to do with anything I said?

IIRC, the average was 20th ranked offense. A perfectly average schedule would be 15/16th

RJ isn't going to improve. The players that suddenly become all stars late into their career are the ones who didn't get opportunity. RJ was a starter his entire career and hasn't been an impact player. He hasn't contributed to winning since he's been in the league. You'll see that tonight, we're going to be better without him, especially if IQ is playing and replaces his shot volume.

In 73 games as a raptor his fg%, 3pt%, Rebound rate, Ast/TO ratio, and seemingly now defence of late, have all improved. So while he MAY not improve further, the only numbers we have to guide us paint a different picture. Is this 100% predictive? Of course not, but to say he won’t is purely based in subjectivity.

If you wanna nitpick RJ, he needs to get his ft % back above 70% like he was in his time in NY, otherwise he’s been pretty good as a raptor.

[tsherkin]

In 73 games as a raptor his fg%, 3pt%, Rebound rate, Ast/TO ratio, and seemingly now defence of late, have all improved. So while he MAY not improve further, the only numbers we have to guide us paint a different picture. Is this 100% predictive? Of course not, but to say he won’t is purely based in subjectivity.

If you wanna nitpick RJ, he needs to get his ft % back above 70% like he was in his time in NY, otherwise he’s been pretty good as a raptor.

I think what we've largely been seeing is that we're using RJ more effectively. We haven't seen a ton of him improving his actual skill set on offense (indeed, quite the opposite), but we appear now to be deploying him more to his strengths, and the results have been noticeably better for us from him for sure. Improved defensive effort has also been really nice to see, actually. As you start getting below the "perennial star" level, specific deployment and roster context become so critical. I think we're doing him more favors with how we use him now, more so than seeing actual proficiency improvement, and that's working out well for us.

[TeamDisgruntled]

In 73 games as a raptor his fg%, 3pt%, Rebound rate, Ast/TO ratio, and seemingly now defence of late, have all improved. So while he MAY not improve further, the only numbers we have to guide us paint a different picture. Is this 100% predictive? Of course not, but to say he won’t is purely based in subjectivity.

If you wanna nitpick RJ, he needs to get his ft % back above 70% like he was in his time in NY, otherwise he’s been pretty good as a raptor.

I think what we've largely been seeing is that we're using RJ more effectively. We haven't seen a ton of him improving his actual skill set on offense (indeed, quite the opposite), but we appear now to be deploying him more to his strengths, and the results have been noticeably better for us from him for sure. Improved defensive effort has also been really nice to see, actually. As you start getting below the "perennial star" level, specific deployment and roster context become so critical. I think we're doing him more favors with how we use him now, more so than seeing actual proficiency improvement, and that's working out well for us.

Scoring wise, I can’t disagree. We are putting him in better positions to succeed and he is capitalizing. However he has been a better 3pt shooter as a raptor, and I don’t think anyone thought he would ever be the passer he has shown himself to be this season. I have a hard time believing he hasn’t improved in those two areas all on his own, rather than just being in a better suited situation.

[tsherkin]

Scoring wise, I can’t disagree. We are putting him in better positions to succeed and he is capitalizing. However he has been a better 3pt shooter as a raptor

Really?

NYK: 34.2%, with a 40%+ season.
TOR: 36.4%, heavily weighted on the 39.2% he shot in his half season (34.9% so far this season)

Not a huge difference. 31.7% proportion of corner shots in New York, 28.7% in Toronto, but he's hitting at 43.8% in the corner for us and 36% for them. In his 40% season in New York, he shot 42.4% from the corner. So we're basically seeing something he's already done before. In 2021 when it happened, he was getting 42.7% of his shots from the corner.

What changed was that his proportion from the corner dropped (and his percentages there), more than anything.

and I don’t think anyone thought he would ever be the passer he has shown himself to be this season. I have a hard time believing he hasn’t improved in those two areas all on his own, rather than just being in a better suited situation.

Yeah, that's fair. The playmaking is a notable improvement.

[YogurtProducer]

Hit a little roadbump in the form of Olynyk starting at C vs Memphis, but we are sitting at 5th in DRTG over the last 15 games.

Still a pretty impressive turnaround for a team that was 30th in the 15 games prior to that.

[djsunyc]

since jan 12 (15 games) we have the 4th best defensive rating at 109.8
offensive rating is only 110.5 which is 24th. (+0.7 net, 13th).

since the trade deadline (3 games), 5th best defensive rating at 107.4. this is for the people that thought it was completely davion + bruce while quickley hurt things.

[Psubs]

One of the reasons why id love to keep Mitchell on this team. He's getting really underrated.

what part of his game is underrated?
He came out of the draft as a defense first type of guard and he's never once had a + DBPM season in his entire career, including this season.And offensively he's only had a higher OBPM than Chomche, Temple, Orlando frickin Robinson and DJ Carton. He's 15th in total BPM. In fact this season is his lowest BPM of his career (-4.4).He's literally BARELY a back-up PG in the NBA and lucky to have a job. You could spin the bottle and get a more valuable PG asset.

He hustled and was physical, so visually it looked like he was good, but the numbers say it wasn't there.

Miami lost by 18 to the Celtics and Davion got the start and had 4 pts, 5 rebs and 4 ast (0 tos) but shot 2 for 8 (0 for 4 from 3) and still managed to be a +5. Terry Rozier was a -23.

[Psubs]

All this while playing tons of young guys. Very impressive. Lets hope they can keep up the defensive effort.

Shead and Jakobe look like they could be all-defensive team players.

[youngRAPZ]

All this while playing tons of young guys. Very impressive. Lets hope they can keep up the defensive effort.

Shead and Jakobe look like they could be all-defensive team players.

lol love them both but I don’t think they look like all defensive players. That’s a little too optimistic lol


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[dagger]

Terry Rozier was a -23.

you can bet on him without inside knowledge

[ConSarnit]

since jan 12 (15 games) we have the 4th best defensive rating at 109.8
offensive rating is only 110.5 which is 24th. (+0.7 net, 13th).

since the trade deadline (3 games), 5th best defensive rating at 107.4. this is for the people that thought it was completely davion + bruce while quickley hurt things.

Dug into this a little more. Basically ran some of the numbers and 90% of our defensive improvement is from not turning the ball over as much and not giving up as many second chance points. Nearly 75% of our improvement in defensive rating is from reducing points off of turnovers. Barnes, Barrett and Shead have all seen their TO numbers drop since we've improved defensively.

We've seen the following improvement (per 100):

Opp PTS of TO: -5.3

Opp 2nd Chance PTS: -1.2

That's 6.5 pts per 100 we've been better since mid January. Overall we've been 7.3 pts per 100 better since mid Jan, hence the 90% of our defensive rating improvement coming from turnovers and 2nd chance points.

The majority of our defensive improvement has come at the offensive end.