IND/POR/ORL...certainty, freedom, firepower

[Skybox]

I think I broke the Spotrac trade machine ...or, maybe, it's too smart to fool. Not sure how to plug in a Nembhard, who makes $3m this year, but his extension kicks in next year. Inverse is true with Isaac, for example, whose deal descends. Anyway, using pen & paper...

*IND doesn't want to get off of Myles Turner, but they fear he expects an extension in the high $30's - which they may be (should be) reluctant to pay. So, rather than risk him walking as a FA, they move for a viable (but different) younger Center, who is under contract for another year and could be amenable to an extension for less - and might even be a more potent fit offensively.

*POR just wants off of Ayton's deal and, maybe, is willing to play with Turner and see how things look...can always do SnT if it doesn't look good. Not many teams project to have enough cap to just "steal" a high-profile UFA this summer. Worst scenario, POR gets off of Ayton and gains other assets in this bigger trade.

ORL sends: KCP, Anthony Black, Cole Anthony, ORL 25 frp (top 5)
ORL gets: Andrew Nembhard, Anfernee Simons
Why: ORL goes from worst offensive backcourt in the NBA to among the best.

IND sends: Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard
IND gets: Deandre Ayton, KCP, ORL 25 frp (top 5)
Why: cost certainty, big defensive upgrade at SG, more offensive minded young C with huge overall ceiling (one year tryout)...perhaps can be re-upped for less than Turner...at least buy a year to figure it out. An additional frp sweetens the risk at C.

POR sends: Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons
POR gets: Myles Turner, Anthony Black, Cole Anthony
Why: Save a ton of money, potentially, or re-up Turner if he's a fit, or sign & trade him this summer. AB is a nice, cheap, long defensive backcourt prospect that could grow into more of a playmaker as well, Cole has 1 more guaranteed year -bench scorer

Not sure if other draft equity is required, given each of the three teams' current situations. Might be okay as is. I'd happily shower srps from ORL if that makes GMs feel better...ORL doesn't use them anyway.

[Malapropism]

Indy gets shafted here.

[JRoy]

Yeah, no reason for IND to consider this deal.

If they decide to move Turner they will do better than this.

[Wizop]

Pacers may have to do something to re-sign Turner next summer without paying tax, but this isn't it. Nembhard is practically untradeable. he was just named defensive player of the month. Pacers are just not the same team without him. he's not just a top defender but he carries the offense when opponents gang up on Haliburton.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Truly awful for the Pacers.

[Adrian Street]

Yeah easy no for Indy. Not trading Nembhard and need better than this to trade Turner

[oldncreaky]

Agree with all saying the Pacers get shafted. I've got Turner and Nembhard as easily the best 2 players involved; I'd actually value Nembhard above Turner. Short at least a couple of FRPs for Indy, plus it is the wrong direction.

[Scoot McGroot]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

[Skybox]

I guess Ayton's really that bad if POR and IND fans feeling that IND gets the shaft here. OK OK

I suppose I was encouraged by POR's recent unwanted excellent play, particularly when they looked more like ORL's defense than ORL did. I'll take Ayton's name out of my mouth...

I thought I saw somewhere that IND was actually considering moving Nembhard's $20m to help pay Turner, so I put the two together to get them some cost certainty - especially if Ayton might be amenable to a more reasonable extension than Turner. I think Turner is good, but vastly overrated if he's going to get $30m +...that's just not what Centers not named Jokic or Embiid should go for these days...especially when you've got Hali and Siakam making bucks. I've wandered into IND board re: Nembhard before and got (what I thought were) unrealistic homer takes on his impact - so I wouldn't have bothered but for the recent media stuff (I know 90% is speculation and the other 10% are just lies, but...).

Never mind.

[psman2]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

Yep....Turner might be too expensive....so just accept your fate and lock in already too expensive and worst center. That follows.

[Skybox]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

don't disagree but we'll have to see what Myles ultimately gets...luckily for IND, only a few teams will have any money but if he feels "disrespected" we know how that can go these days - "leverage" only seems to work for players I figured Ayton might extend for much less than he's getting next year, so the pain would be short-term.

[Wizop]

I thought I saw somewhere that IND was actually considering moving Nembhard's $20m to help pay Turner

Pacers could move Toppin, Nesmith, and Maturin probably in that order. Nembhard is as untradeable as Haliburton and Siakam.

[Skybox]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

Yep....Turner might be too expensive....so just accept your fate and lock in already too expensive and worst center. That follows.

Thanks for your thoughtful feedback...feel free to re-read my thought process and, hopefully, don't miss anything this time.

I am aware that Ayton makes more than Turner THIS YEAR. The long-term picture might be different...if you consider one year from now long-term. IF Ayton, the player, is unacceptable, that's one thing...but I never expected IND to pay Ayton $30m+ going forward.

[psman2]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

Yep....Turner might be too expensive....so just accept your fate and lock in already too expensive and worst center. That follows.

Thanks for your thoughtful feedback...feel free to re-read my thought process and, hopefully, don't miss anything this time.

I am aware that Ayton makes more than Turner THIS YEAR. The long-term picture might be different...if you consider one year from now long-term. IF Ayton, the player, is unacceptable, that's one thing...but I never expected IND to pay Ayton $30m+ going forward.

I read it and found it lacking in logic honestly. If the for some reason Indy finds itself priced out on Turner in the offseason then they might have to pivot. What you have them doing here is just accepting the worse case scenario ahead of time. If Turner does walk then Indy would likely be able to turn that into a SNT and land a player the caliber of Ayton without much more than some 2nds to grease the wheels.

[Scoot McGroot]

I guess Ayton's really that bad if POR and IND fans feeling that IND gets the shaft here. OK OK

I suppose I was encouraged by POR's recent unwanted excellent play, particularly when they looked more like ORL's defense than ORL did. I'll take Ayton's name out of my mouth...

I thought I saw somewhere that IND was actually considering moving Nembhard's $20m to help pay Turner,

Nope. Not one. Reports that teams want Nembhard and Indy has no interest in trading him from Scotto and Stein.

so I put the two together to get them some cost certainty - especially if Ayton might be amenable to a more reasonable extension than Turner.

Ayton would be paid $36m for a full year before any extension would kick in. And Myles, on a 4/120 deal would start around $26.7m in year one. So almost $10 million for Ayton in the tax crunch year.

I think Turner is good, but vastly overrated if he's going to get $30m +...that's just not what Centers not named Jokic or Embiid should go for these days...especially when you've got Hali and Siakam making bucks.

Centers of late are getting around $25m+ per. Hartenstein, Allen, Claxton, Lopez, Ayton, Sengun etc are all getting in the range of $25m to $35m per year. Cap inflation and whatnot and $30m per is pretty much going rate for starting caliber centers lately and going forward?

I've wandered into IND board re: Nembhard before and got (what I thought were) unrealistic homer takes on his impact - so I wouldn't have bothered but for the recent media stuff (I know 90% is speculation and the other 10% are just lies, but...).

Never mind.

Well, no real recent media speculation, and people are just starting to believe on Nembhard. He was just named the Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month. I didn’t know that was a thing, but he was!

It’s ok to just say it was a miss. We all have them.

[Scoot McGroot]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

don't disagree but we'll have to see what Myles ultimately gets...luckily for IND, only a few teams will have any money but if he feels "disrespected" we know how that can go these days - "leverage" only seems to work for players I figured Ayton might extend for much less than he's getting next year, so the pain would be short-term.

The problem is this exacerbates a tax issue next year by adding $10m on top of it. Before any possible “cheaper Ayton extension” would kick in.

[Scoot McGroot]

Oh, Skybox. You missed on Indy, BADLY.

Seriously y’all. Nembhard is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most un-gettable player on Indy’s roster, depending on where Siakam falls. He’s that important.

But also, if the cost concern is there for Myles for next year, why would we take in Ayton at $35.5m? The contract the Lakers think we have an issue with wouid start with Myles at about $27m for next year. Feels like we’d just keep him rather than pay an extra $8.5m to Ayton?

In fact, Ayton/KCP would combine for almost $56m next year. Nembhard jumps to $18m. So unless Myles gets $38m in year one, Indy would be adding a lot of salary here, and have worse tax issues than just keeping Myles.

Yep....Turner might be too expensive....so just accept your fate and lock in already too expensive and worst center. That follows.

Thanks for your thoughtful feedback...feel free to re-read my thought process and, hopefully, don't miss anything this time.

I am aware that Ayton makes more than Turner THIS YEAR. The long-term picture might be different...if you consider one year from now long-term. IF Ayton, the player, is unacceptable, that's one thing...but I never expected IND to pay Ayton $30m+ going forward.

If, say, Ayton extended at 3/75m, then Indy would be paying Ayton 4/$111m, or almost $28m per year. Even if he extended at 3/60, it’d be a total of 4/96m, or $24m per year. Is it worth avoiding paying Myles $26m to $30m per season for that?

[Skybox]

I guess Ayton's really that bad if POR and IND fans feeling that IND gets the shaft here. OK OK

I suppose I was encouraged by POR's recent unwanted excellent play, particularly when they looked more like ORL's defense than ORL did. I'll take Ayton's name out of my mouth...

I thought I saw somewhere that IND was actually considering moving Nembhard's $20m to help pay Turner,

Nope. Not one. Reports that teams want Nembhard and Indy has no interest in trading him from Scotto and Stein.

Thank you for checking EVERY NBA media outlet (and so quickly ) and confirming that none of them could have proposed that possiblility...I clearly was hallucinating.

I did say "never mind" when I got the feedback about Ayton vs Turner. Take a breath.

[Scoot McGroot]

I guess Ayton's really that bad if POR and IND fans feeling that IND gets the shaft here. OK OK

I suppose I was encouraged by POR's recent unwanted excellent play, particularly when they looked more like ORL's defense than ORL did. I'll take Ayton's name out of my mouth...

I thought I saw somewhere that IND was actually considering moving Nembhard's $20m to help pay Turner,

Nope. Not one. Reports that teams want Nembhard and Indy has no interest in trading him from Scotto and Stein.

Thank you for checking EVERY NBA media outlet (and so quickly ) and confirming that none of them could have proposed that possiblility...I clearly was hallucinating.

I did say "never mind" when I got the feedback about Ayton vs Turner. Take a breath.

Hey. We’re breathing fine here. Don’t try and make it personal. It was just a miss. That’s all. No one is holding it against you.


As for reports, you’re right! I can’t possibly check every single blog, Twitter post, or anything in the league. I just assumed you meant at least somewhat major and respectable writers. And many have mentioned Nembhard, but specifically to say he has a ton of value, but Indy doesn’t have interest in dealing him. It’s been pretty consistent is all. If you’ve seen otherwise, feel free to share and I’ll adjust my line of thinking


But seriously. No one is holding it against you. And I’m sorry for hitting with a bunch of repo se posts in a row, but I’m on my cell phone, so it’s hard to thread responses.

We’re all good mate. No judgement. I’m moving on.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Indiana downgrades from Turner to Ayton.
Indiana downgrades from Nembhard to KCP.
The compensation is a 1st?

That can't be right.