Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[Bulliever2020]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

Why he is a rfa. Who will offer him more then 20 a season.

Pat was an RFA too. I'm not saying it is the right thing to do. It is my prediction of what will happen. This is how AKME does business. They will not risk losing him and that is the number they will settle on imo.

[Indomitable]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

Why he is a rfa. Who will offer him more then 20 a season.

Pat was an RFA too. I'm not saying it is the right thing to do. It is my prediction of what will happen. This is how AKME does business. They will not risk losing him and that is the number they will settle on imo.

They also did not give into Ayo or Coby. They have a weak spot for Pat.

[Michael Jackson]

Small sample size but over his last 8 games: 15.6 ppg on 52/38/77. 7.6 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals. Turns 23 next season. May not have star upside but Bulls cant let him walk.

Also can’t overpay him. Singing him for the right deal yeah I’m all in.

Well i don't think the plan is to sign him the day after the season ends for 4/120

With AKME I am not sure I am so confident in that though. Not said as a joke but they have done this in the past. They shouldn't but they just might.

[Bulliever2020]

Why he is a rfa. Who will offer him more then 20 a season.

Pat was an RFA too. I'm not saying it is the right thing to do. It is my prediction of what will happen. This is how AKME does business. They will not risk losing him and that is the number they will settle on imo.

They also did not give into Ayo or Coby. They have a weak spot for Pat.

They traded for Giddey and see him as a big part of the rebuild imo. They aren't going to risk losing him. Will take any and all bets he will not get less AAV than Pat.

[League Circles]

Giddey's team is going to be like "how on earth would we not get more than you gave PWill?"

And I'd be interested to hear AK's rebuttal.

I agree Giddey's agent will say that, but it doesn't matter, and AK doesn't need to address it.

We shouldn't offer him a dime more than $1 above the MLE IMO, and even that is questionable. We need to do with him what we should have done with Patrick. Hopefully we can find a good trade for him now instead to avoid a bad summer situation.

12.8M per year for Giddy is questionable? I get you hate him but you need to at lest be realistic.

I don't hate him at all. He's just not a high level player, might not even be a long term starter, and this team is very far away from needing to worry about flawed rotation players. Re-signing him and all these other scrubs like we usually do is a recipe for disaster IMO. I feel roughly the same about:

Coby
Ayo
Ball

Why would we need 4 different flawed points? Just pick 2 or 3 at the most and get what you can with the rest. I want to explore trading Giddey now rather than risk losing him for nothing this summer (or overpaying). If we're smart enough to play hardball with him, I think it's very realistic that he won't get an offer sheet above the MLE in free agency. Not a guarantee, but likely.

But yeah, a 4 or 5 year contract for a possible bench player on a young bad team would be a potential huge mistake. He's pretty useless if he's not running your offense full time, and it's very questionable whether he's good enough to warrant that. It's strange for me to see so many fans so opposed to the mediocrity we've been in be so interested in committing long term to more mediocre players.

[League Circles]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

[greenwing]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

How much do you think he’s worth?

[Jcool0]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

A 22 year old 6'8" PG averaging 12/7.3/6.6, that would be making top 65 money is what would stop you from being a fan?

[meekrab]

I don't really care what the ultimate number is (obviously if some other team offers a max contract they can have him) but it *must* be determined by the market, AK should not bid against himself. Tell Giddey's agent it's nothing personal but they need to establish his value.

[League Circles]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

How much do you think he’s worth?

For a guy like him I think his worth varies wildly depending on the roster he's on. To the Bulls, assuming no more trades between now and the draft (which could increase his value to us for example if we dealt Ayo, Coby or Ball), and assuming we don't take a point in the draft (which would decrease his value to us), I would only offer him a 1+1 deal (team option on year two) for basically whatever the QO is plus the second year team option. I just see no need to go higher than that unless he signs an offer sheet for more, which we'd decide on as it happens. I suppose I won't be irate if we made an offer starting at the QO but lasting 3-5 years instead of the 1+1 I suggest, but anything over the full 5 year MLE (or 5 year starting at the QO if that's different) would be something I wouldn't match. I don't see him as a starter for a high level team unless the other 4 guys are almost perfectly chosen to compensate for his very poor defense and shooting and negative "gravity". That's a luxury we probably can't afford IMO.

[League Circles]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

A 22 year old 6'8" PG averaging 12/7.3/6.6, that would be making top 65 money is what would stop you from being a fan?

22 means little to me. He's been a full time nba starter for 4 years, and IIRC he played pro in Australia a but before that, and he hasn't really improved.

He's good at counting stats, no doubt. So is Russell Westbrook, but nobody thinks he's a top 65 player, and he's a significantly better defender than Giddey.

Giddey isn't even remotely close to being a top 65 NBA player. He's WAY below that. We're a well below average team and IMO he's at BEST been our 6th best player this season. At BEST. Smith, Zach, Ayo, Coby, and Ball have all been better IMO. Maaaaaybe he's been better than Vuc, who we basically can't give away right now.

A long term contract to ANY non-core player right now would be a huge mistake for the Bulls.

Oh, also, Josh Giddey is not a point guard and never will be one. He is physically unable to defend NBA guards. He's a point forward who cannot shoot or defend worth a damn. Great passer, ball handler and rebounder though, I'll give him that.

[Indomitable]

I don't really care what the ultimate number is (obviously if some other team offers a max contract they can have him) but it *must* be determined by the market, AK should not bid against himself. Tell Giddey's agent it's nothing personal but they need to establish his value.

Give a offer that is good for you. Match a contract if brings one. Hold the line.

You pay stars. You do not overpay role players.

[WindyCityBorn]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

I think closer to 4/$80 million. I think that would be a fair contract for your lead facilitator. I also don’t think he is anywhere near a finished product. He needs to given the keys to run the team going forward now that Zach is gone. Preferably one of Coby, Ball or Ayo would go too. And him running the team isn’t really detrimental because he keeps the ball moving and makes good decisions. He is also top 5 passer in the league. His defense is middling. Not bad.

[sco]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

I think closer to 4/$80 million. I think that would be a fair contract for your lead facilitator. I also don’t think he is anywhere near a finished product. He needs to given the keys to run the team going forward now that Zach is gone. Preferably one of Coby, Ball or Ayo would go too. And him running the team isn’t really detrimental because he keeps the ball moving and makes good decisions. He is also top 5 passer in the league. His defense is middling. Not bad.

I think we sometimes forget that it takes guys a 1/2 season to start to thrive in new systems. I've seen an uptick in his play this year and am willing to give him the full season to set my expectations.

Based on results through year-end, I agree that it's unlikely that a team offers more than the MLE for him. I was worried about the Spurs, but now they are set at PG.

[Jcool0]

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

A 22 year old 6'8" PG averaging 12/7.3/6.6, that would be making top 65 money is what would stop you from being a fan?

22 means little to me. He's been a full time nba starter for 4 years, and IIRC he played pro in Australia a but before that, and he hasn't really improved.

He's good at counting stats, no doubt. So is Russell Westbrook, but nobody thinks he's a top 65 player, and he's a significantly better defender than Giddey.

Giddey isn't even remotely close to being a top 65 NBA player. He's WAY below that. We're a well below average team and IMO he's at BEST been our 6th best player this season. At BEST. Smith, Zach, Ayo, Coby, and Ball have all been better IMO. Maaaaaybe he's been better than Vuc, who we basically can't give away right now.

A long term contract to ANY non-core player right now would be a huge mistake for the Bulls.

Oh, also, Josh Giddey is not a point guard and never will be one. He is physically unable to defend NBA guards. He's a point forward who cannot shoot or defend worth a damn. Great passer, ball handler and rebounder though, I'll give him that.

Okay he has been a starter around 4 years and you dont think by lets say 24 he might be a better player. He plays around a 17 PER so if you think he stays around 16-17 PER rating, Clint Capela is #54 with a 17.9 and Russell Westbrook is #79 with a 16. So you might not think he is worth 25M per season and maybe he isn't and wont get that contract who knows. I know he wont be maxed in Chicago. But seems like a 20s number isn't as crazy as you think it is. FWIW Clint Capela (age :30) is ranked #79 making 22M per.

[League Circles]

There is 0% chance Giddey gets less than Pat

He will be back for around 4/100 imo

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

I think closer to 4/$80 million. I think that would be a fair contract for your lead facilitator. I also don’t think he is anywhere near a finished product. He needs to given the keys to run the team going forward now that Zach is gone. Preferably one of Coby, Ball or Ayo would go too. And him running the team isn’t really detrimental because he keeps the ball moving and makes good decisions. He is also top 5 passer in the league. His defense is middling. Not bad.

Jesus, if his defense isn't bad, who's is?

Him running the team is detrimental relative to an actual good team (which is the goal!) because half of the game is defense which he will always be poor at due to lead feet, and because he shoots like a child which causes negative gravity. He is absolutely an elite passer though. He COULD maybe be a lead facilitator for a good team, but I find it to be too unlikely to take the risk.

Now that we have our picks back I'm fine with playing either Coby, Ayo or Jevon **** Carter as our starting point next year if we can't come to favorable terms with Ball, or draft a point, or somehow get a good one in off-season trade or FA. Hell I'm OK with Dalen Terry as our starting PG next year if needed.

[jnrjr79]

If we give him 4/100 for how he's played I'm pretty confident I'll be done as a fan. That would just be too wildly insane.

How much do you think he’s worth?

For a guy like him I think his worth varies wildly depending on the roster he's on. To the Bulls, assuming no more trades between now and the draft (which could increase his value to us for example if we dealt Ayo, Coby or Ball), and assuming we don't take a point in the draft (which would decrease his value to us), I would only offer him a 1+1 deal (team option on year two) for basically whatever the QO is plus the second year team option. I just see no need to go higher than that unless he signs an offer sheet for more, which we'd decide on as it happens. I suppose I won't be irate if we made an offer starting at the QO but lasting 3-5 years instead of the 1+1 I suggest, but anything over the full 5 year MLE (or 5 year starting at the QO if that's different) would be something I wouldn't match. I don't see him as a starter for a high level team unless the other 4 guys are almost perfectly chosen to compensate for his very poor defense and shooting and negative "gravity". That's a luxury we probably can't afford IMO.

I think this is the crux of the issue. Given his limitations, Giddey needs to be surrounded by shooting and someone else who offers better perimeter defense (funnily enough, Lonzo theoretically fits the bill here). Giddey to me seems like a guy you bring in to an existing roster with the right attributes, rather than someone you have to build your roster around given his shortcomings, because he's not good enough to be someone who basically dictates your roster construction.

[sco]

How much do you think he’s worth?

For a guy like him I think his worth varies wildly depending on the roster he's on. To the Bulls, assuming no more trades between now and the draft (which could increase his value to us for example if we dealt Ayo, Coby or Ball), and assuming we don't take a point in the draft (which would decrease his value to us), I would only offer him a 1+1 deal (team option on year two) for basically whatever the QO is plus the second year team option. I just see no need to go higher than that unless he signs an offer sheet for more, which we'd decide on as it happens. I suppose I won't be irate if we made an offer starting at the QO but lasting 3-5 years instead of the 1+1 I suggest, but anything over the full 5 year MLE (or 5 year starting at the QO if that's different) would be something I wouldn't match. I don't see him as a starter for a high level team unless the other 4 guys are almost perfectly chosen to compensate for his very poor defense and shooting and negative "gravity". That's a luxury we probably can't afford IMO.

I think this is the crux of the issue. Given his limitations, Giddey needs to be surrounded by shooting and someone else who offers better perimeter defense (funnily enough, Lonzo theoretically fits the bill here). Giddey to me seems like a guy you bring in to an existing roster with the right attributes, rather than someone you have to build your roster around given his shortcomings, because he's not good enough to be someone who basically dictates your roster construction.

I agree that we aren't in a position to build the roster around Giddey's weaknesses. That said, it may still be an opportunity. IMO Giddey/Matas are a nice pairing at the F spots. Giddey, IMO, is an adequate defender of forwards, and has actually looked downright average recently. That allows us to plug in scoring shooting guards at both guard spots, which I think is good, in general, because I think they are easier to find than scoring forwards...esp. 3pt scoring. The main reason I want to trade Vuc is that I want to see what a line-up like Coby, Ayo, Giddey, Matas, Smith can do this season.

[League Circles]

For a guy like him I think his worth varies wildly depending on the roster he's on. To the Bulls, assuming no more trades between now and the draft (which could increase his value to us for example if we dealt Ayo, Coby or Ball), and assuming we don't take a point in the draft (which would decrease his value to us), I would only offer him a 1+1 deal (team option on year two) for basically whatever the QO is plus the second year team option. I just see no need to go higher than that unless he signs an offer sheet for more, which we'd decide on as it happens. I suppose I won't be irate if we made an offer starting at the QO but lasting 3-5 years instead of the 1+1 I suggest, but anything over the full 5 year MLE (or 5 year starting at the QO if that's different) would be something I wouldn't match. I don't see him as a starter for a high level team unless the other 4 guys are almost perfectly chosen to compensate for his very poor defense and shooting and negative "gravity". That's a luxury we probably can't afford IMO.

I think this is the crux of the issue. Given his limitations, Giddey needs to be surrounded by shooting and someone else who offers better perimeter defense (funnily enough, Lonzo theoretically fits the bill here). Giddey to me seems like a guy you bring in to an existing roster with the right attributes, rather than someone you have to build your roster around given his shortcomings, because he's not good enough to be someone who basically dictates your roster construction.

I agree that we aren't in a position to build the roster around Giddey's weaknesses. That said, it may still be an opportunity. IMO Giddey/Matas are a nice pairing at the F spots. Giddey, IMO, is an adequate defender of forwards, and has actually looked downright average recently. That allows us to plug in scoring shooting guards at both guard spots, which I think is good, in general, because I think they are easier to find than scoring forwards...esp. 3pt scoring. The main reason I want to trade Vuc is that I want to see what a line-up like Coby, Ayo, Giddey, Matas, Smith can do this season.

I kinda agree with your underlying point, but haven't we seen enough of these guys to know that that will never be an elite lineup? It's basically relying on Matas being a superstar and Smith taking a big leap. Why do we want to see that lineup? Again, I kinda agree that if Giddey is going to make it, it will be as a stronger forward than a quicker guard (easier for him to add muscle than speed for sure), but even if Matas surprisingly reaches his high ceiling, Smith, Coby and Ayo just won't ever be good enough to turn Matas and Giddey into a real winner.

[jnrjr79]

I think this is the crux of the issue. Given his limitations, Giddey needs to be surrounded by shooting and someone else who offers better perimeter defense (funnily enough, Lonzo theoretically fits the bill here). Giddey to me seems like a guy you bring in to an existing roster with the right attributes, rather than someone you have to build your roster around given his shortcomings, because he's not good enough to be someone who basically dictates your roster construction.

I agree that we aren't in a position to build the roster around Giddey's weaknesses. That said, it may still be an opportunity. IMO Giddey/Matas are a nice pairing at the F spots. Giddey, IMO, is an adequate defender of forwards, and has actually looked downright average recently. That allows us to plug in scoring shooting guards at both guard spots, which I think is good, in general, because I think they are easier to find than scoring forwards...esp. 3pt scoring. The main reason I want to trade Vuc is that I want to see what a line-up like Coby, Ayo, Giddey, Matas, Smith can do this season.

I kinda agree with your underlying point, but haven't we seen enough of these guys to know that that will never be an elite lineup? It's basically relying on Matas being a superstar and Smith taking a big leap. Why do we want to see that lineup? Again, I kinda agree that if Giddey is going to make it, it will be as a stronger forward than a quicker guard (easier for him to add muscle than speed for sure), but even if Matas surprisingly reaches his high ceiling, Smith, Coby and Ayo just won't ever be good enough to turn Matas and Giddey into a real winner.

I think you're 100% right that we know that's not an elite lineup. I'd still want to see it, or basically see as much burn for the younger guys as possible, for evaluation purposes, though.

The only exception here to me is Coby. I've reached the point where I'd trade him because I don't think he'll be smart to invest in on his next contract. That said, with Zach off the team, he's going to get his minutes, so even if he's not under the same evaluation scrutiny as other guys, he's gonna be on the floor.

Smith could probably benefit from increased developmental minutes, but I can't see him being a starter on a contending team.

Giddey could obviously do with as much evaluation time as possible. I'm leaning toward letting him walk if the predictions on this board about his salary are accurate, but you might as well see exactly what you've got.

Matas is the only guy with real #1 potential, and he's just fun as hell, so I'll be thankful to see him in a bigger role.