OT: Linkages between betting lines and NBA referees

[StlHawksFan]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

[Jalen Bluntson]

The refs were terrible last night for sure. I am sure there are even more examples you could add to this list.

[FrozenEnvelope]

Can't sports general start to utilize AI to call games fair and square?

[StlHawksFan]

Can't sports general start to utilize AI to call games fair and square?

AI has hallucinations.

[Jeff Van Gully]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

thanks for sharing. is there a link to the event page? and are there opportunities to view virtually?

[MrDollarBills]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

Aw man. I wanna see this. I've felt for years that the spread heavily influences how these games are called.

[thebuzzardman]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

Will attending help me with my future parlays?

[louisorr]

Of course there’s a link between refs and betting lines in the current kleptocracy that we inhabit. The state and billionaire class are granting us more of that good old American freedom we love so much. Just like the opioid epidemic can be traced to corporate/ state deregulation for profiteering off of our backs so will the forthcoming gambling crisis that will leave some of us mentally ill and broke and the rest without belief in our great institution of hope and aspiration known as sports.

[thebuzzardman]

Of course there’s a link between refs and betting lines in the current kleptocracy that we inhabit. The state and billionaire class are granting us more of that good old American freedom we love so much. Just like the opioid epidemic can be traced to corporate/ state deregulation for profiteering off of our backs so will the forthcoming gambling crisis that will leave some of us mentally ill and broke and the rest without belief in our great institution of hope and aspiration known as sports.

This forum essentially monetizes mental illness so I'm ok with all this

[Context]

I respect this work sir...I wonder if I can rewatch this game so I can contribute.

[Context]

2nd quarter after the 10 min mark- there was a scramble for the ball where Deuce ended up on the floor and they called a "kicked ball". There was no kicked ball

[thebuzzardman]

The foul on KAT away from the ball, where he and the Rockets players were tangling.

KAT's 2nd foul, sent him to the bench.
Meaningless call, could have been a double foul, all it did was interrupt flow, the reason why fouls on layups are hardly called.
Pretty suspicious.

[WaltFrazier]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

Is the focus of your study only on L2M calls? Or are they just an indicator.

Tim Donaghy in his book said one of the main ways refs influence outcomes is to give two early fouls to a star. Like Kat's second last night

[StlHawksFan]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

thanks for sharing. is there a link to the event page? and are there opportunities to view virtually?

Not this year. But if you cannot make it, DM me and I'll send you the slide deck if you want to see it.

[StlHawksFan]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

Is the focus of your study only on L2M calls? Or are they just an indicator.

Tim Donaghy in his book said one of the main ways refs influence outcomes is to give two early fouls to a star. Like Kat's second last night

Yeah I can't measure that. Unfortunately only reviews on L2M calls are made public. But it also controls for statistical noise. All the games are tight. The inly real differences are the betting odds. Refs make roughly 20% to 40% more incorrect calls on favorites than underdogs. 20% more on home favorites and 40% more on visiting favorites. I can't prove the refs are gambling but I also cannot reject the presence of bias.

[Jeff Van Gully]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

thanks for sharing. is there a link to the event page? and are there opportunities to view virtually?

Not this year. But if you cannot make it, DM me and I'll send you the slide deck if you want to see it.

really fascinating. thanks again for sharing with us.

[j4remi]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

Will the presentation be available to view online? Are you recording it? I'm definitely interested, but won't be able to attend.

[WaltFrazier]

I'm not sure how interested any of you are in academic research but I'll be presenting research on February 23 in which I found a clear linkage between betting lines and referee correct calls and incorrect calls in the L2M reports. If you are interested in attending, it will be at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square at 8:30am that Sunday morning.

The L2M report for the Rockets game isn't up yet, but please fill in the poll on what you think the most egregious call was last night.

Is the focus of your study only on L2M calls? Or are they just an indicator.

Tim Donaghy in his book said one of the main ways refs influence outcomes is to give two early fouls to a star. Like Kat's second last night

Yeah I can't measure that. Unfortunately only reviews on L2M calls are made public. But it also controls for statistical noise. All the games are tight. The inly real differences are the betting odds. Refs make roughly 20% to 40% more incorrect calls on favorites than underdogs. 20% more on home favorites and 40% more on visiting favorites. I can't prove the refs are gambling but I also cannot reject the presence of bias.

I get that any other method is subjective but is there a problem using the league's own review of correct/incorrect calls, as the judge of what's correct/incorrect?

[kNicksGmen]

it has happened at least twice this season where a made 3 by a knicks player is later on reviewed and taken away due to the shooter being out of bounds. i don't understand how they can go back and fix that (i've never seen it happen to another team, only the knicks) but not a blatant up and down travel leading directly to a 3. i assume it's in the rules that replay review can change a 3 to a 2 or 0 based on if the foot is on the 3pt line or out of bounds... and maybe "traveling" is subjective enough they don't want to open it up to review/challenge. but something that blatant should be fixed at the next stoppage of play.

[Luv those Knicks]

Can't sports general start to utilize AI to call games fair and square?

AI has hallucinations.

To expand on this, AI is weird. AI could study games and decide that bad calls are part of the game. It could decide that the Lakers or Lebron should get favorable calls because that's the way it's always been. Similar to how AI decided that scans with thumb print were correlated with disease. The thing is, that can be worked around. AI isn't locked into making deliberately bad or bias calls, but it's a possible outcome.

There's talk about automated ball placement in football given the bad calls in the chief-bills game and for some football plays, I think it makes sense. It wouldn't be hard to put a chip in a football, well 2 chips, on near each tip, and ball placement instantly becomes accurate. They can even show it on a little screen on the TV for 4th down and 1 plays, tracking the movement of the ball when you can't really see it in the pile of players. So, in football, I'm all for it.

It's worth pointing out that they're trying the automated strike zone in AAA this year and pitchers don't like it. They no longer get the occasional friendly call or benefit from catcher framing and hitting is up. If AI sees everything, and it could, maybe it calls LeBron James for traveling every 3rd time he dribbles the ball, or Michael Jordan or Patrick Ewing. These are unintended consequences that could happen where the game loses something. There's also the fact that according to the letter of the rules, any body contact is a foul, but refs don't call it that way. AI could learn to distinguish between foul contact and incidental contact, but then players might addapt. They might learn what they can and can't get away with.

I'm not saying it couldn't work, and I'd even support it, provided it's done well, but there would be a painful learning process if AI was used to call games, and I say that, hoping it happens all the same, because I'm a big fan of impartial game calling. I've seen too many outcomes decided by the refs.

as for your project. Best of luck to you. Silver won't care, but I wish you success.