ArthurVandelay wrote:Scase wrote:Drakeem wrote:But you've narrowed your focus on specifically the value of the trade vs the value of the pick we get. Optimally, if we're trying to go for playing the odds on a high pick, the vets needed to go. Anything other than shipping them out would have decreased the chances of us getting a higher pick, and sitting them out would have led to bad asset management with Bruce Brown being able to leave this off season.
Trading for BI or someone else is moot at this point. Again, I'm only really having issues with the notion of the draft pick status having an impact on the trade grade if we're assuming BI doesn't impact our ability to tank (your words, not mine). Outside of trading Scottie and everyone else, we wouldn't get worse next year. It was always going to be a one year tank job unless you completely gut the team and go Washington Wizards status.
I can get not liking the direction of the front office, or not liking BI as a player and judging the trade accordingly, but that was just a really weird statement in an otherwise fine post.
I explained my rationale better in my response to tsherkin, the TLDR is that the BI acquisition limits our options (whether people like those options is a different story) moving forward.
Say we move the vets, or even let them expire, so no impact to this years draft positioning, we botch that pick, get bad luck, whatever happens, it just doesn't go well. You still have a largely unchanged team (minus those vets) going into that next season, a roster that still isn't particularly good, say a mid 30's win team. You can pivot to move Jak who at that point has 1 year left, or he exercises his PO but overall is still a valuable contract. Or you can move RJ who has 1 more year on his contract and is also showing more value + low cost contract relative. You now have made your team worse the following year and can take another stab at a high draft pick, in what is looking to be another good draft.
But with BI on the team, assuming he doesn't impact this year, and the same scenario of it going tits up occurs. The next year you have basically locked yourself into trying to compete, you've just re-signed BI to a (likely) 4 year contract extension with an AAV between 35-40mil, which would be largely unmovable as no one wanted to pick him up for that other than us, and he hasn't had the time to improve and make it a more desirable contract. You limit your options to pivot, you now have Scottie on a max contract, a perpetually injured guy on his 3rd and near max contract, IQ who is probably a negative value asset right now due to his contract and being injured all year, and you have RJ/Jak who no longer make sense to move because of the BI contract.
It just results in fewer potential ways to pivot the team, and I am not keen on that. I view the BI trade very much like the Jak one, nothing wrong (mostly) with the player, but I hate the timing of it. At least with the Jak one you had guys expiring and not being re-signed to a big contract, but still largely the same.
I think the big difference between the Poeltl and BI trade is the immediate intention. The Poeltl trade was made with the goal to be as good as possible immediately and push for a play in thereby destroying their lottery odds (in a generational draft no less). The BI trade was made to be good next year and from everything being said the front office wants to tank this year harder than you or me

I would say this is fairly accurate

Duffman100 wrote:Scase wrote:Drakeem wrote:But you've narrowed your focus on specifically the value of the trade vs the value of the pick we get. Optimally, if we're trying to go for playing the odds on a high pick, the vets needed to go. Anything other than shipping them out would have decreased the chances of us getting a higher pick, and sitting them out would have led to bad asset management with Bruce Brown being able to leave this off season.
Trading for BI or someone else is moot at this point. Again, I'm only really having issues with the notion of the draft pick status having an impact on the trade grade if we're assuming BI doesn't impact our ability to tank (your words, not mine). Outside of trading Scottie and everyone else, we wouldn't get worse next year. It was always going to be a one year tank job unless you completely gut the team and go Washington Wizards status.
I can get not liking the direction of the front office, or not liking BI as a player and judging the trade accordingly, but that was just a really weird statement in an otherwise fine post.
I explained my rationale better in my response to tsherkin, the TLDR is that the BI acquisition limits our options (whether people like those options is a different story) moving forward.
Say we move the vets, or even let them expire, so no impact to this years draft positioning, we botch that pick, get bad luck, whatever happens, it just doesn't go well. You still have a largely unchanged team (minus those vets) going into that next season, a roster that still isn't particularly good, say a mid 30's win team. You can pivot to move Jak who at that point has 1 year left, or he exercises his PO but overall is still a valuable contract. Or you can move RJ who has 1 more year on his contract and is also showing more value + low cost contract relative. You now have made your team worse the following year and can take another stab at a high draft pick, in what is looking to be another good draft.
But with BI on the team, assuming he doesn't impact this year, and the same scenario of it going tits up occurs. The next year you have basically locked yourself into trying to compete, you've just re-signed BI to a (likely) 4 year contract extension with an AAV between 35-40mil, which would be largely unmovable as no one wanted to pick him up for that other than us, and he hasn't had the time to improve and make it a more desirable contract. You limit your options to pivot, you now have Scottie on a max contract, a perpetually injured guy on his 3rd and near max contract, IQ who is probably a negative value asset right now due to his contract and being injured all year, and you have RJ/Jak who no longer make sense to move because of the BI contract.
It just results in fewer potential ways to pivot the team, and I am not keen on that. I view the BI trade very much like the Jak one, nothing wrong (mostly) with the player, but I hate the timing of it. At least with the Jak one you had guys expiring and not being re-signed to a big contract, but still largely the same.
Except they may be locked in to compete no matter what, based on Organizational and Ownership pressures. That's a factor you have to consider. It's possible Masai got buy in from the board and ownership to be BAD this season but with the promise to start winning the season after.You're looking at this like they aren't enacting a plan and a plan based on a multitude of factors. Based on our conversations, I know you're in a leadership position in tech / ux. You are often passed down KRs and have to deliver. It's not different here, everyone has a boss, even Masai.
I bet everyone is a little nervous that another seasons of tanking in 2025/26 would do massive damage to attendance, revenue etc.
I intentionally don't take things like the bolded into account, simply because masai has been very public about him being the decision maker on all things basketball, and no outside influence. Now whether or not that is factual or accurate is a different story, but if I am to take him at his word for this being a rebuild or us focusing on the draft, then I can't pick and choose when to take him at his word. If his word means anything, then every single decision he makes in regards to rebuild, retool, tanking, competing, or anything in between, rests entirely on his shoulders. We may not agree on the things I criticize the FO for, but I do remain pretty consistent with things like this.
I agree that realistically everyone has someone they have to report to in most cases, but I also don't make it known to my reports that I make all the decisions lol. Towing the company line is one thing, saying you are where the buck stops is another.
I also agree that no one, including fans, leadership, or players wants to tank for a multitude of reasons. And I'm not even saying we should (but I do think we should for one more year

), but rather that this move removes that as an option, and it's definitely my interpretation of it, but I think it's got a pretty high chance of petering out to a "meh" team in the current state. I will gladly reassess if we make some big moves in the off season like moving anyone from the SL. But, until that happens I have to make my opinions based on the info we have at the time, and right now to me, this ain't it.
In leadership it's always important to have viable contingency plans, this one leaves us very few of those, and I'm not keen on that kind of planning. We're not at an "all in" juncture right now, but the move feels a lot more like that than the inverse. If we found a way to move RJ+IQ for some star/2way PG, that's a solid pivot, but it's also pretty unrealistic. So I really don't see very many avenues where this plan is successful unless a
lot of things go perfectly right. That is my biggest criticism, for this stuff to not end up as a sideways move, or worse, virtually everything needs to go really well.
He needs to integrate well, the defence of the team needs to magically improve, Scottie needs to be better, RJ needs to be better, IQ needs to be alive, the contract can't be bad, we need a good pick, and so on. If anyone of those doesn't happen, we're on the back foot, by no ones hands but our own.