What do you think AK's plan is?

[jnrjr79]

So, just with the thread title, I expect this to elicit any number of deservedly snarky responses. But I do think it's interesting to read the tea leaves and try to figure out what AK's plan is for turning the team around. NOTE: predicting what the plan is is not the same as endorsing it or having any confidence he's going to execute it. It's just about trying to predict what AK's plan is.

Here is what AK has done in the last year that seem noteworthy:

1) Did a favor to DeMar by S&T-ing him so that he could get the paycheck he desired. This helped earn goodwill points of painting the Bulls as a team that will help star players get paid, when they could have just let him walk and deal with the fact that there wasn't cap space in the market for him. AK was also unwilling to go into the tax to trade him. If he was, presumably he would have gotten some draft capital.

2) Traded Alex Caruso rather than extending him for 4/$80M for a promising (debatable, but let's go with it) young player that would need to be paid soon, rather than trading him for draft capital.

3) Traded Zach LaVine for draft capital and players who are probably just "some guys," and all of whom will be off the books by 2026.

4) Re-signed Lonzo on a 1+1 deal with the 2nd option being the team option (and, in either event, no money past 2026).

5) Declined to trade Vooch besides it seeming like there were *some* offers of some sort. Vooch's deal also expires in 2026.

6) Signed Jalen Smith to a reasonable deal that expires in 2027.

7) Declined to trade Ayo and Coby, whose deals expire in 2026.

8) Signed Patrick Williams to an $18M/year deal with a player option through 2029, making all of us understandably BIG MAD.


A few things seem to be true here:

1) The Bulls are actually rebuilding, and in doing so, they seem to be very intentionally making sure that their moves will result in them having huge cap space in 2026. (Even signing Smith to that deal would be easy to unload before the 2027 season if needed). They are willing to entertain signing guys who will be around past that point, but want those deals to be tradeable (I'm assuming they thought Williams would be, but that may have been an error or judgment based on his middling performance).

2) The Bulls are not making rebuilding moves that a patient team would make. They aren't averse to improving their draft pick situation, but they sure as hell aren't making it the #1 priority. AK does not intend to take 5 years building through the draft. This may be his actual team-building preference or it could be an edict from ownership that he can do a rebuild, but not a full-on tank.

3) As always, the luxury tax is a no-go zone and can limit flexibility in deals.

4) AK's prior moves for DeRozan and Vooch suggest that he already thinks rebuilding by trading draft capital for current "All-Stars" is a viable model to get good fast. Though it didn't work, I have no reason to believe he learned any lessons about this, lol.

This sure seems to me like AK's current plan is to tread water with young guys for the remainder of this season and next, draft someone this year, and then go big game hunting in 2026. The removal of the San Antonio pick protections may have been less about keeping the pick this year, given the Bulls could likely already have done that, and more about making sure their picks weren't encumbered in future seasons.

The 2026 crop of anticipated UFAs is pretty underwhelming. So I'm not sure this prioritization on 2026 cap space is really about getting those players.

If it unfolds like this, obviously they'd have the ability in 2026 to target any number of players, so the plan (if it is one, lol, I can never tell with AK) probably has some anticipated flexibility. But doesn't this sort of scream "I'm going to try to trade for Giannis?"

At that point, Giannis will be going into the last year of his deal (subject to a player option he'd presumably want to turn down in lieu of a new max deal), the Bucks will likely be further depleted and old, and they'll have traded away all their assets such that they have no obvious way to rebuild around Giannis for the second half of his career. They won't have the draft capital to do it, and the rest of the guys around Giannis aren't going to have much trade value by that point.

If the Bulls have a bunch of cap space, they won't have to worry about salary matching. But AK probably thinks that Giannis won't cooperate in coming if the Bulls don't have decent guys around him, so he's making no effort to go out and get the picks on the market that were available, many of which were out in say 2029 or 2031. Instead, the only pick he got was the more immediately available pick owed to San Antonio, which gives the Bulls control back of their future 1st for the next several seasons. He can then offer Milwaukee a bunch of future 1sts and swaps so that Milwaukee can blow it up and go about its inevitable rebuild.

Again, this sort of a deal wouldn't have to apply to Milwaukee/Giannis specifically, but it sure seems plausible.

So, not opining on whether this is smart or likely to work, it sure has the feel of an impatient GM who wants to have some players on the roster who will be ready to contribute in 2026, has the financial wherewithal to deal with the contracts, and will have pretty decent draft assets to trade. I think he'll try to do the same thing again - trade off a bunch of 1sts and go get a big name or two. This would also seem to relate to his current feeling that it'd be perfectly cool to make the playoffs - if that's happening in substantial part because of the young guys that would stick around with Giannis, it means they are developing, and means the destination might look more attractive to a big name. And we have seen minor rumblings in the media that the Bulls might be interested in Giannis, so I'm not claiming to have had some insight that came out of the blue.

Anyway, this is just an educated guess, but it sure seems consistent with the otherwise annoying/confusing approach to the rebuild to date.

Thoughts?

[League Circles]

I don't think he has a plan and I don't think any exec should. That essentializes 15 decisions (on individual
player contracts) into one incoherent one. Flexibility and constantly looking to pivot should be what roughly 25 team execs should be looking to do most of the time.

I would actually HOPE that AK doesn't have a plan, because if he did, that would reveal premature conclusions about the plethora of "maybe" guys that we have in Smith, Matas, Patrick, Giddey, Ayo, Coby, Ball and our pick this summer. Those guys should all be appropriately viewed as "maybe" part of our long term future.

[greenl]

Muddle along as a fringe playoff contender until he is fired.

[HearshotKDS]

Buy time until he can find/stumbles/whatever verb you want into building a team that can regularly make the playoffs.

[MrSparkle]

What he did early on made sense to me.

Multiple draft/trade/signing misses later… I don’t care what the plan is. These guys don’t seem to be good at the negotiating table nor at the scouting side. Unfortunately our development (and coaching) has to be questioned too.

A good GM should find their way, regardless of strategy. The 7 teams who won rings in the last decade each did it their own way. Go through and dissect the builds, and they were all radically different. The only ones that really tanked and built around top-3 picks were the Celtics and Cavs, who had no business winning without Lebron UFA return.

Besides the Kyrie/Bennett Cavs, thread is they were pretty good teams as a baseline; their idea of disappointment was a 2nd round loss, or even a finals loss. They didn’t run back play-in teams with no draft capital for 4y straight.

I still for the life of me can’t understand how they thought Zach/Demar/Vuc needed more than 1 full year (1.5 at most) to evaluate and tweak. If I’ve got 2 “all-stars” with a net-negative lineup rating, LET ALONE 3, then I am dropping atleast 2 of them off at the airport and taking Othella Harrington, Piatkowski and Calvin Booth in my compensation package, and going a different direction. Especially with Lonzo’s status.

[HomoSapien]

I don't think he really has a plan. We're currently set up to have some cap space in 2026-2027. He's plainly said, he's going to try and build a team with 9 very good players so I think that's what he's going to try and do. Unfortunately, his definition of a good player seems to differ from everyone else.

[Rose2Boozer]

It's probably to build around Giddey, Matas, and players who are not on the team yet.

[dougthonus]

I don't think he has a plan and I don't think any exec should. That essentializes 15 decisions (on individual
player contracts) into one incoherent one. Flexibility and constantly looking to pivot should be what roughly 25 team execs should be looking to do most of the time.

I would actually HOPE that AK doesn't have a plan, because if he did, that would reveal premature conclusions about the plethora of "maybe" guys that we have in Smith, Matas, Patrick, Giddey, Ayo, Coby, Ball and our pick this summer. Those guys should all be appropriately viewed as "maybe" part of our long term future.

You are absolutely hopeless if you don't have a strategy. There are many things you need to do cohesively together to get a good chance of success. There is a difference between having a cohesive strategy and being unwilling to pivot or to do really dumb things in the sake of that strategy or to predetermine very specific outcomes on individual players.

Ie, the cost of Josh Giddey should weigh in to whether he is on the team going forward. You don't have to have Josh Giddey be the focal point of your strategy, any player that maybe you keep and maybe you don't depending on the price isn't a core piece of your strategy.

You should be deciding very strategically, do you want to try to make the playoffs or chase draft picks. Are you a buyer or a seller? The time line of how long a guy is an asset becomes critically important in these discussions.

As an example, if I know I don't have a reasonable chance to build towards something in the next year, and I am scared of paying them in 2026 then Coby/Ayo were obvious sell candidates this year as it would both enhance your draft capital in return for them, maximize their value prior to UFA, improve your own draft pick this year and next year, and not meaningfully impact your 2026/27 and beyond. It's a no brainer to do that.

If you are trying to make the playoffs this year and next year, then you probably shouldn't trade Zach LaVine, whom is your best player and helps your ability to win for minor role players and cash savings in 26/27.

If you want to pursue FAs via cap space, you should align contracts to end at a specific year. If you want to prioritize trading for stars, you should try to gain a bunch of assets (likely draft picks) that a team trading a star would find valuable.

[HomoSapien]

I don't think he has a plan and I don't think any exec should.

This is a wild take, and I'm starting to wonder if you're saying hot takes just for the sake of saying them. Being flexible and ready to adapt doesn't mean you can't have a plan and obviously having a plan doesn't mean you should be following it religiously without any adjustments.

[Mindcrime]

[burlydee]

The plan seems pretty straightforward. Build a team with young, versatile players (Matas, Giddey, Ayo, Smith), trade the vets at the highest possible price for young players or draft capital (Caruso for Giddey, Lavine for 1st and Jones, etc) try to cash in on your picks (Bulls own there 1st and Portland's).

I suspect Coby and Vuc to be gone in the summer. They resign Giddey and maybe Jones.

Giddey / Jones / Ball
Ayo / Huerter
Williams / Terry
Matas / Phillips
Smith / Collins

Top 10 pick plus whatever they get in Vuc and Coby trades. The team will be bottom 7 bad next year as well, get another top pick, and after that I suspect they'll use cap space to try and sign ppl again.

[MrSparkle]

For a guy who sent he wants fast, fun, skilled passers/shooters and versatile defenders…

He’s sure done a great job going against his “strategy” by quadrupling down on some of the lowest-IQ, iso-heavy, brick-prone defensive sieves.

Giddey, Lonzo and Matas are really the only ones that check the box, so far.

[kulaz3000]

Watch on YouTube

\

One of the best Bulls youtubers in my opinion. He thinks that AK is making a move at a star like LaMelo or Zion, which going by our front offices records, where they don't really value picks, the way they've stacked their roster with short term contracts, I could see a scenario where they are going to take a gamble on a player like Zion. I just don't believe they are willing to be patient and work via the draft.

I hope he is wrong, but this opinion video and what thinks will happen seems relatively in line with how this front office has worked.

[HomoSapien]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YlpN4BY_F88[

[jnrjr79]

I don't think he really has a plan. We're currently set up to have some cap space in 2026-2027. He's plainly said, he's going to try and build a team with 9 very good players so I think that's what he's going to try and do. Unfortunately, his definition of a good player seems to differ from everyone else.

IMO, “9 good players” is just some b.s. you say when you don’t yet have a star.

[burlydee]

Watch on YouTube

\

One of the best Bulls youtubers in my opinion. He thinks that AK is making a move at a star like LaMelo or Zion, which going by our front offices records, where they don't really value picks, the way they've stacked their roster with short term contracts, I could see a scenario where they are going to take a gamble on a player like Zion. I just don't believe they are willing to be patient and work via the draft.

I hope he is wrong, but this opinion video and what thinks will happen seems relatively in line with how this front office has worked.

I don't see the Bulls having enough to get LaMelo, unless he pushes to get here.

I wouldn't give up any draft capital to get Zion. But if you can trade some combo of PWill, Coby and Vuc it may be worth the value.

[jnrjr79]

The plan seems pretty straightforward. Build a team with young, versatile players (Matas, Giddey, Ayo, Smith), trade the vets at the highest possible price for young players or draft capital (Caruso for Giddey, Lavine for 1st and Jones, etc) try to cash in on your picks (Bulls own there 1st and Portland's).

I suspect Coby and Vuc to be gone in the summer. They resign Giddey and maybe Jones.

Giddey / Jones / Ball
Ayo / Huerter
Williams / Terry
Matas / Phillips
Smith / Collins

Top 10 pick plus whatever they get in Vuc and Coby trades. The team will be bottom 7 bad next year as well, get another top pick, and after that I suspect they'll use cap space to try and sign ppl again.

IMO, this plan is closer to what I think the Bulls should do, but I don’t think AK has the patience for it.

[drosestruts]

Every good team ever had luck on their side.

I think AK wants to get lucky. Without saying that out loud since luck isn't really a strategy.


He's drafted pretty raw players hoping one would be the amazing prospect that no one sees coming - Patrick Williams, Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips, and Matas Buzelis all fit this bill.


He's acquired young talent in hopes they're late bloomers - Josh Giddey, Jalen Smith, Lonzo Ball (was 23/24 when he came to Chicago).


And he's brought in (or inherited) some all-star vets - Zach LaVine, Vucevic, and DeRozan


Aside from half a season -the sum has never really been greater than its parts.


This has been due to:

- injuries
- lack of development/no one really breaking out (this whole thing looks a lot different if you #4 pick turns into an all-star)
- poor roster fit/construction


While the hardest thing to get is a star player - we've seen plenty of teams get a star and than fail to adequately put pieces around them. AK seems to want to have the foundation in place and get luck with a star.

Many here want to tear this thing down and put all the eggs/energy in the "get the star" basket.


Another way to look at it is - say you win the draft and get Cooper Flagg - what current lottery team with Flagg would perform best next season? My ranking would be:

1. San Antonio
2. Philly
3. Warriors
4. Hawks
5. Bulls/Suns

People say AK is a fence sitter - and this is true. He wants to be at the top of the "if we get lucky we're the team in the best position to capitalize on that luck quickly"

This is what I view as his goal. You'll see even in this goal I don't have being the most successful.

And this luck could be the draft. Or someone like Giannis saying - I want a trade. Where we can now offer a lot of expiring contracts and any of our picks plus one additional pick.

[2weekswithpay]

The plan is to be competitive and make the playoffs. This was the plan when they traded for Vuc back in 2021 and I don't believe it's changed since. The idea itself isn't bad. If implemented properly, the Bulls could look like the Heat. The Heat seem to consistently find talent and address issues with their roster while not having high draft picks or a massive chest of assets. Being in Miami helps as well obviously. Another example would be the 2007-17 Hawks. They were never a contender but they had 10 straight playoff appearances.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Reinsdorf plays a part in this but AK is bad at his job so the returns on this plan are terrible. The refusal to trade Drummond at the deadline last season is the best example of his incompetence. The Bulls traded their 2025 SRP to the Spurs to get Derozan, and they traded their 2026 & 2027 SRPs to the Wizards for Phillps. AK prioritized keeping a 30 year old back center over replenishing the team's assets. Drummond only played 15mins a night, you can trade him and still make the play-in. Now the team only has 1 SRP in the next 4 drafts (2025-2028).

[League Circles]

I don't think he has a plan and I don't think any exec should. That essentializes 15 decisions (on individual
player contracts) into one incoherent one. Flexibility and constantly looking to pivot should be what roughly 25 team execs should be looking to do most of the time.

I would actually HOPE that AK doesn't have a plan, because if he did, that would reveal premature conclusions about the plethora of "maybe" guys that we have in Smith, Matas, Patrick, Giddey, Ayo, Coby, Ball and our pick this summer. Those guys should all be appropriately viewed as "maybe" part of our long term future.

You are absolutely hopeless if you don't have a strategy. There are many things you need to do cohesively together to get a good chance of success. There is a difference between having a cohesive strategy and being unwilling to pivot or to do really dumb things in the sake of that strategy or to predetermine very specific outcomes on individual players.

Ie, the cost of Josh Giddey should weigh in to whether he is on the team going forward. You don't have to have Josh Giddey be the focal point of your strategy, any player that maybe you keep and maybe you don't depending on the price isn't a core piece of your strategy.

You should be deciding very strategically, do you want to try to make the playoffs or chase draft picks. Are you a buyer or a seller? The time line of how long a guy is an asset becomes critically important in these discussions.

As an example, if I know I don't have a reasonable chance to build towards something in the next year, and I am scared of paying them in 2026 then Coby/Ayo were obvious sell candidates this year as it would both enhance your draft capital in return for them, maximize their value prior to UFA, improve your own draft pick this year and next year, and not meaningfully impact your 2026/27 and beyond. It's a no brainer to do that.

If you are trying to make the playoffs this year and next year, then you probably shouldn't trade Zach LaVine, whom is your best player and helps your ability to win for minor role players and cash savings in 26/27.

If you want to pursue FAs via cap space, you should align contracts to end at a specific year. If you want to prioritize trading for stars, you should try to gain a bunch of assets (likely draft picks) that a team trading a star would find valuable.

Of course all of these things and many others should be constantly weighed by an exec in making decisions. I'm just saying that I don't recognize or identify coherent strategies. I mean the strategy would always be to win every game and every title, no? You then make tons of constant micro and macro decisions on individual things that you intend to make you better, rather than worse, over some timeline. I don't believe in the binary reduction to "buying or selling", because it treats picks as if they are cash when they are not, and ignores the subtleties of the specifics.

Like Ayo, Giddey, and Coby. Yes, for sure, the plausibility of them getting "overpaid" should factor into whether or not we keep or trade them, but it's far from the only factor. It's critical to consider what is being offered. Obviously for any player there is a potential trade offer that is the best offer out there at a point in time that is also properly evaluated as inferior to even letting those guys walk in free agency for nothing, which is itself nothing more than a guess. Like for me for example, I think Coby White is a pretty good player. I could still see him being anywhere between the 3rd and 8th best player on a really good team (which is a wide range). So if the best offer out there for him is something I don't value much, like a late first and bad expiring contract value, I'd rather keep him, even knowing the risk of losing him for nothing. Why? Because a late first is nearly nothing. Coby is a #7 pick that has kinda panned out (I think he'd match up reasonably well to the 7th best player in most drafts), so it's very unlikely that a late first will ever be as good as him.

I mean, you always need to consider the impact of every micro decision on the entire roster for a long time span (I usually say 4 years but I think 5 is just as reasonable). I just don't think of that as a coherent strategy. It's more of a constant simple process of evaluating "what do each of the next 5 years look like for our entire ROSTER if I make this move (draft a player, sign/release a player, or make a specific trade)". You just do that all day every day. I think that boils it down to the essence and is what I want me exec doing rather than having what I'd call a strategy, which would be something more insanely multi-step in conception that's more of a story than a strategy, and would be something like "I will make Giddey and Matas good and then I will trade Coby and Patrick for bad picks which will become good players and then I'll win 52 games in 4 years and then fire Billy and hire Spoelstra and then in 6 years we'll win 58 games and the title in a 6 game series" . It's really all about letting NO STONE go unturned, constantly being as open minded as you can, valuing seasons equally across time for the most part, amd boiling down to the simplicity of the choices you can actually make instead of the story you wish would play out. I view "strategy" as not applying to nba roster management in the way we'd use that term to refer to say business strategies in a market economy. In a way we're just talking semantics I guess.