2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[scrabbarista]

Gap between SGA and Jokic basically depends on how much you weigh this season vs previous seasons

Do you mean that Jokic is having a better season than previous seasons?

All previous seasons?

By all players?

[scrabbarista]

This man has Russell Westbrook with a career high in TS% in his seventeenth season - while Westbrook is shooting a career low from the free throw line.

Jokic is seriously like nothing that's ever been in basketball.

[Castle Black]

Shai is going to win MVP, but this is a good video describing how Jokic is objectively the most "valuable" player to his team in the league, and how we might be witnessing the greatest peak in NBA history.

Watch on YouTube

[web123888]

I think this will be identical to 2024 NFL MVP where Jokic (Lamar) has the historic/best statistical season of his career and justifiably deserves yet another MVP but SGA (Allen) also has a monstrous, MVP level statistical season and the best season of his career, even if it's slightly less than Jokic's. Combined with winning more games and being the #1 seed, it's totally justifiable to give SGA the award.

But something does seem wild about a dude averaging 30/13/10 on 57/46/81 with a 33+ PER, anchoring a top 2-3 seed, having by far the best season of his already 3x MVP career, and not winning the award.

[MarcusBrody]

I think this will be identical to 2024 NFL MVP where Jokic (Lamar) has the historic/best statistical season of his career and justifiably deserves yet another MVP but SGA (Allen) also has a monstrous, MVP level statistical season and the best season of his career, even if it's slightly less than Jokic's. Combined with winning more games and being the #1 seed, it's totally justifiable to give SGA the award.

But something does seem wild about a dude averaging 30/13/10 on 57/46/81 with a 33+ PER, anchoring a top 2-3 seed, having by far the best season of his already 3x MVP career, and not winning the award.

I'm with you here. I love what SGA is doing and think he totally deserves an MVP for the season he's having. I think that he is super valuable to OKC as they aren't really a good offensive team without him and so his presence is what allows them to be the truly elite team they are. OKC is 14.6 points per 100 poss better offensively with him on the floor, which is in the 99th percentile in the league, while playing good defense.

But yeah... According to Cleaning the Glass, while SGA is 99th percentile in the league in offensive impact, he isn't even close to Jokic. The Nuggets are 23.6 points/100 poss with Jokic on, which is wild. He also has slightly better on off defensive metrics, but that says a lot more about OKC's non-Shai guards being great defenders and Denver's backup bigs...well often not that great. Shai's on off would predict 24 extra wins vs an average player in his position, which is spectacular. Jokic's would predict 52.

So I'm totally good with Shai winning MVP this year. He's a fully deserving candidate. But Jokic is a different sort of creature in a way that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be.

[Castle Black]

Read on Twitter

[The Master]

I'm with you here. I love what SGA is doing and think he totally deserves an MVP for the season he's having. I think that he is super valuable to OKC as they aren't really a good offensive team without him and so his presence is what allows them to be the truly elite team they are. OKC is 14.6 points per 100 poss better offensively with him on the floor, which is in the 99th percentile in the league, while playing good defense.

But yeah... According to Cleaning the Glass, while SGA is 99th percentile in the league in offensive impact, he isn't even close to Jokic. The Nuggets are 23.6 points/100 poss with Jokic on, which is wild. He also has slightly better on off defensive metrics, but that says a lot more about OKC's non-Shai guards being great defenders and Denver's backup bigs...well often not that great. Shai's on off would predict 24 extra wins vs an average player in his position, which is spectacular. Jokic's would predict 52.

So I'm totally good with Shai winning MVP this year. He's a fully deserving candidate. But Jokic is a different sort of creature in a way that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be.

From statistical perspective, being +18 on/off on +13 SRS team is much more impressive than being +21 on/off on +5 SRS team. CP3 was able to generate multiple +20 on/off seasons on +4 and +7 SRS teams, but what Shai is doing is historically paralleled only by the greatest regular seasons ever. I'm not saying that what Jokic isn't deadly impressive, he's already top10 player ever in my eyes, but again - statistically - the better your teammates/backups are, the worse are your on/off numbers (on average). So when you play on such dominant team, it is very difficult to generate such high on/offs (e.g. Duncan in his best season was +18 on/off on +7.8 SRS team, so a team worse by -5 net pts than Thunder 2025).

+8 SRS seasons (I didn't include Spurs '14, '16, Celtics '24 - because they weren't anchored by a single player)

Jordan in 96/97 was +8 on/off on +10.7 SRS team
Shaq was in 99/00 +11 on/off on +8.4 SRS team
Duncan in 06/07 was +14 on/off on +8.4 SRS team
Garnett in 07/08 was +12 on/off on +9.3 SRS team
LeBron in 08/09 was +21 on/off on +8.7 SRS team
Durant in 12/13 was +7 on/off on + 9.2 SRS team
Curry in 14/15 was +18 on/off on +10.0 SRS team
Curry in 15/16 was +23 on/off on +10.4 SRS team
Curry in 16/17 was +17 on/off on +11.4 SRS team
Harden in 17/18 was +5 on/off on +8.2 SRS team
Giannis in 18/19 was +9 on/off on +8.0 SRS team
Giannis in 19/20 was +13 on/off on +9.4 SRS team

It should put into perspective how rare it is to see what's SGA is doing this season, in the past 25 years this is something we've seen only in case of Curry and LeBron - and in terms of combination of on/off numbers and SRS level, we have one better season only, and that's Steph in 2016...

If you make a point that 'Jokic is a creature (...) that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be', and you refer heavily to on/off stats - then SGA is definitely a creature that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be as well. The rest is a matter of perception and SGA still not getting enough credit for having one of the best seasons ever for guards.

I don't know if Shai can keep it up in the rest of the season, but he's doing is one of the greatest regular season performances that we've seen in the XXI century. You can literally wonder if you can play any better than 33-5-6 on 65TS% with elite defense, 31.5 PER, +12 BPM and +18 on/off on + 13 SRS team, statistically speaking, this is on the level of peak Jordan (assuming he was able to generate +20 on/off numbers in his peak during 1st three peat, I'm not a fan of partial data we have access to). Not saying SGA is a Jordan-level player, but again, statistically, he checks in all the boxes. And I don't mean that Jokic is undeserving of MVP - hell no, just pointing out what a marvelous season SGA is having, as on/off numbers were mentioned.

[MarcusBrody]

I'm with you here. I love what SGA is doing and think he totally deserves an MVP for the season he's having. I think that he is super valuable to OKC as they aren't really a good offensive team without him and so his presence is what allows them to be the truly elite team they are. OKC is 14.6 points per 100 poss better offensively with him on the floor, which is in the 99th percentile in the league, while playing good defense.

But yeah... According to Cleaning the Glass, while SGA is 99th percentile in the league in offensive impact, he isn't even close to Jokic. The Nuggets are 23.6 points/100 poss with Jokic on, which is wild. He also has slightly better on off defensive metrics, but that says a lot more about OKC's non-Shai guards being great defenders and Denver's backup bigs...well often not that great. Shai's on off would predict 24 extra wins vs an average player in his position, which is spectacular. Jokic's would predict 52.

So I'm totally good with Shai winning MVP this year. He's a fully deserving candidate. But Jokic is a different sort of creature in a way that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be.

From statistical perspective, being +18 on/off on +13 SRS team is much more impressive than being +21 on/off on +5 SRS team. CP3 was able to generate multiple +20 on/off seasons on +4 and +7 SRS teams, but what Shai is doing is historically paralleled only by the greatest regular seasons ever. I'm not saying that what Jokic isn't deadly impressive, he's already top10 player ever in my eyes, but again - statistically - the better your teammates/backups are, the worse are your on/off numbers (on average). So when you play on such dominant team, it is very difficult to generate such high on/offs (e.g. Duncan in his best season was +18 on/off on +7.8 SRS team, so a team worse by -5 net pts than Thunder 2025).

+8 SRS seasons (I didn't include Spurs '14, '16, Celtics '24 - because they weren't anchored by a single player)

Jordan in 96/97 was +8 on/off on +10.7 SRS team
Shaq was in 99/00 +11 on/off on +8.4 SRS team
Duncan in 06/07 was +14 on/off on +8.4 SRS team
Garnett in 07/08 was +12 on/off on +9.3 SRS team
LeBron in 08/09 was +21 on/off on +8.7 SRS team
Durant in 12/13 was +7 on/off on + 9.2 SRS team
Curry in 14/15 was +18 on/off on +10.0 SRS team
Curry in 15/16 was +23 on/off on +10.4 SRS team
Curry in 16/17 was +17 on/off on +11.4 SRS team
Harden in 17/18 was +5 on/off on +8.2 SRS team
Giannis in 18/19 was +9 on/off on +8.0 SRS team
Giannis in 19/20 was +13 on/off on +9.4 SRS team

It should put into perspective how rare it is to see what's SGA is doing this season, in the past 25 years this is something we've seen only in case of Curry and LeBron - and in terms of combination of on/off numbers and SRS level, we have one better season only, and that's Steph in 2016...

If you make a point that 'Jokic is a creature (...) that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be', and you refer heavily to on/off stats - then SGA is definitely a creature that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be as well. The rest is a matter of perception and SGA still not getting enough credit for having one of the best seasons ever for guards.

I don't know if Shai can keep it up in the rest of the season, but he's doing is one of the greatest regular season performances that we've seen in the XXI century. You can literally wonder if you can play any better than 33-5-6 on 65TS% with elite defense, 31.5 PER, +12 BPM and +18 on/off on + 13 SRS team, statistically speaking, this is on the level of peak Jordan (assuming he was able to generate +20 on/off numbers in his peak during 1st three peat, I'm not a fan of partial data we have access to). Not saying SGA is a Jordan-level player, but again, statistically, he checks in all the boxes. And I don't mean that Jokic is undeserving of MVP - hell no, just pointing out what a marvelous season SGA is having, as on/off numbers were mentioned.

I don't disagree. That's why i am happy for Shai to win it.

Out of curiousity, where are you getting your on/off numbers? Cleaning the Glass has Shai at 13.6 on/off and Jokic at 24.5, which is a much bigger difference than the numbers you're citing.

[Snake3]

What amazes me about Jokic WS/48 is that among the top 12 of the WS/48 of all time, they were all on either championship or a top tier championship contending teams. You have some legendary teams in there. Kareem 71, MJ 91, MJ 96, LeBron 13, Curry 16. You also have Lebron 09, Kareem 72, 73, Wilt 64. But they were all either top of their conference. You could add SGA in there this season because he is among the top 12 now.

Yet all of them except for Wilt and Jokic were on teams that won 60+ wins. I suppose SGA too, but it's likely he'll win 60+ wins this year.

[QPR]

Denver sat pat at the deadline while contenders got even better..best team in the East picked up Hunter for a bag of chips..now imagine Hunter on the Nuggets

Theis would have been a great fit as well and OKC paid nothing for him. Booth has been asleep at the wheel ever since Jokic carried them to a ring. Still have DeAndre as your back-up five is borderline negligence.

[MarcusBrody]

Denver sat pat at the deadline while contenders got even better..best team in the East picked up Hunter for a bag of chips..now imagine Hunter on the Nuggets

Theis would have been a great fit as well and OKC paid nothing for him. Booth has been asleep at the wheel ever since Jokic carried them to a ring. Still have DeAndre as your back-up five is borderline negligence.

DAJ has actually played pretty well lately. I'm not sure that current Theis is an upgrade. DeAndre has provided a bit of size, blocked some shots, and caught lobs. He's not an elite backup, but he hasn't been terrible.

[canada_dry]

My humble take.

Is SGA on pace to win MVP over Joking? Yes
Does OKC support cast is better that Denver? Yes
Is Jokic still the better player in a vacuum? Yes

As an analogy, go and look at the MVPs through last 20 years. Not always the best player wins the MVP.

The sooner fans realize this the sooner we avoid crying robbery every year

[canada_dry]

SGA and Jokic are both having high-level MVP seasons. Both compare well to the best regular seasons in NBA history. How about trying to enjoy both players and the history they are making? If you can't appreciate greatness when it's staring you right in your face, you're missing out and that's a pity. For you.

Facts

[DrModesty]

It has generally been the case that if you want to win from a lower seed you need to be clearly and obviously better than anyone else, and the further back you are the bigger that gap in performance needs to be. SGA is standing on top of Jokic's coattails, and so the gap in record needs to be a good deal closer.

[breezypeezy]

I honestly think theres a good argument for Joker and SGA to be co-MVP's like weve seen in several NFL seasons.

Favre and Sanders for instance, were co-MVP for Barrys 2000 yd rushing season.

Its okay to say they are both outstanding instead of jumping through hoops to make a case.

Joker and SGA are both outstanding................see its not that hard.

[Chokic]

Shai is going to win MVP, but this is a good video describing how Jokic is objectively the most "valuable" player to his team in the league, and how we might be witnessing the greatest peak in NBA history.

Watch on YouTube

Talk about hyperbole.

[Exp0sed]

What amazes me about Jokic WS/48 is that among the top 12 of the WS/48 of all time, they were all on either championship or a top tier championship contending teams. You have some legendary teams in there. Kareem 71, MJ 91, MJ 96, LeBron 13, Curry 16. You also have Lebron 09, Kareem 72, 73, Wilt 64. But they were all either top of their conference. You could add SGA in there this season because he is among the top 12 now.

Yet all of them except for Wilt and Jokic were on teams that won 60+ wins. I suppose SGA too, but it's likely he'll win 60+ wins this year.

I mean, Jokic is the only MVP that has never played with another all-star. when Karim went to the bench in 71 or MJ in 91/96, or Curry in 16 or what have u - their teams didn't fall apart to the extent that Denver does and their starting lineup was better too, with multiple difference makers (or stars) alongside the WS/48 monster

Jokic is already 10 years into his career, the fact that the FO have failed to pair him with a single all-star is a huge outlier.
you can compare it to something like KG's tenure on the Wolves. Nuggets did a better job of getting him help that the Wolves did KG but that's what we're talking about here in essence

[Exp0sed]

I'm with you here. I love what SGA is doing and think he totally deserves an MVP for the season he's having. I think that he is super valuable to OKC as they aren't really a good offensive team without him and so his presence is what allows them to be the truly elite team they are. OKC is 14.6 points per 100 poss better offensively with him on the floor, which is in the 99th percentile in the league, while playing good defense.

But yeah... According to Cleaning the Glass, while SGA is 99th percentile in the league in offensive impact, he isn't even close to Jokic. The Nuggets are 23.6 points/100 poss with Jokic on, which is wild. He also has slightly better on off defensive metrics, but that says a lot more about OKC's non-Shai guards being great defenders and Denver's backup bigs...well often not that great. Shai's on off would predict 24 extra wins vs an average player in his position, which is spectacular. Jokic's would predict 52.

So I'm totally good with Shai winning MVP this year. He's a fully deserving candidate. But Jokic is a different sort of creature in a way that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be.

From statistical perspective, being +18 on/off on +13 SRS team is much more impressive than being +21 on/off on +5 SRS team. CP3 was able to generate multiple +20 on/off seasons on +4 and +7 SRS teams, but what Shai is doing is historically paralleled only by the greatest regular seasons ever. I'm not saying that what Jokic isn't deadly impressive, he's already top10 player ever in my eyes, but again - statistically - the better your teammates/backups are, the worse are your on/off numbers (on average). So when you play on such dominant team, it is very difficult to generate such high on/offs (e.g. Duncan in his best season was +18 on/off on +7.8 SRS team, so a team worse by -5 net pts than Thunder 2025).

+8 SRS seasons (I didn't include Spurs '14, '16, Celtics '24 - because they weren't anchored by a single player)

Jordan in 96/97 was +8 on/off on +10.7 SRS team
Shaq was in 99/00 +11 on/off on +8.4 SRS team
Duncan in 06/07 was +14 on/off on +8.4 SRS team
Garnett in 07/08 was +12 on/off on +9.3 SRS team
LeBron in 08/09 was +21 on/off on +8.7 SRS team
Durant in 12/13 was +7 on/off on + 9.2 SRS team
Curry in 14/15 was +18 on/off on +10.0 SRS team
Curry in 15/16 was +23 on/off on +10.4 SRS team
Curry in 16/17 was +17 on/off on +11.4 SRS team
Harden in 17/18 was +5 on/off on +8.2 SRS team
Giannis in 18/19 was +9 on/off on +8.0 SRS team
Giannis in 19/20 was +13 on/off on +9.4 SRS team

It should put into perspective how rare it is to see what's SGA is doing this season, in the past 25 years this is something we've seen only in case of Curry and LeBron - and in terms of combination of on/off numbers and SRS level, we have one better season only, and that's Steph in 2016...

If you make a point that 'Jokic is a creature (...) that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be', and you refer heavily to on/off stats - then SGA is definitely a creature that only all-time greats in their prime tend to be as well. The rest is a matter of perception and SGA still not getting enough credit for having one of the best seasons ever for guards.

I don't know if Shai can keep it up in the rest of the season, but he's doing is one of the greatest regular season performances that we've seen in the XXI century. You can literally wonder if you can play any better than 33-5-6 on 65TS% with elite defense, 31.5 PER, +12 BPM and +18 on/off on + 13 SRS team, statistically speaking, this is on the level of peak Jordan (assuming he was able to generate +20 on/off numbers in his peak during 1st three peat, I'm not a fan of partial data we have access to). Not saying SGA is a Jordan-level player, but again, statistically, he checks in all the boxes. And I don't mean that Jokic is undeserving of MVP - hell no, just pointing out what a marvelous season SGA is having, as on/off numbers were mentioned.

I don't disagree. That's why i am happy for Shai to win it.

Out of curiousity, where are you getting your on/off numbers? Cleaning the Glass has Shai at 13.6 on/off and Jokic at 24.5, which is a much bigger difference than the numbers you're citing.

Chet came back and had a higher +- than SGA in limited mins

will Chet coming back be the chink in the armour of SGA's MVP campaign?

[QPR]

Denver sat pat at the deadline while contenders got even better..best team in the East picked up Hunter for a bag of chips..now imagine Hunter on the Nuggets

Theis would have been a great fit as well and OKC paid nothing for him. Booth has been asleep at the wheel ever since Jokic carried them to a ring. Still have DeAndre as your back-up five is borderline negligence.

DAJ has actually played pretty well lately. I'm not sure that current Theis is an upgrade. DeAndre has provided a bit of size, blocked some shots, and caught lobs. He's not an elite backup, but he hasn't been terrible.

I just realised OKC are going to waive Theis anyway haha

[Exp0sed]

Theis would have been a great fit as well and OKC paid nothing for him. Booth has been asleep at the wheel ever since Jokic carried them to a ring. Still have DeAndre as your back-up five is borderline negligence.

DAJ has actually played pretty well lately. I'm not sure that current Theis is an upgrade. DeAndre has provided a bit of size, blocked some shots, and caught lobs. He's not an elite backup, but he hasn't been terrible.

I just realised OKC are going to waive Theis anyway haha

Theis hasn't been himself for a while

with that said, plenty of teams are gonng make him an offer in the buy-out market and Denver should def be one of those teams