Grading the Ingram Trade

[youngRAPZ]

Brandon Ingram is making 35 million this year. If he takes 100 over 3 years he’s taking less than he made this year which is a pay cut. For comparison sake he asked the Pelicans for 200 over 4 years which nets out to 50 a year. He’s not going to just drop his asking price by 100 million to do the Raptors a favor.
This is Ingram’s last big payday.

If the Raptors lowball him he’ll walk to another team it’s that simple. You don’t trade for a guy on an expiring contract unless you’re also willing to spend to retain him which I think the Raptors will end up doing, but its going heavily to impact our cap.

No one is able to offer him that much or wants to. Do you know how much GTJ wanted? Lol, guess what he got.

The problem is when these guys don't get close to what they want they leave the incumbent team. Ingram is not taking 3/100. That is basically what IQ got and he's far less proven than Ingram.

If we try to hold fast on 3/100 Ingram will probably walk, take some 1+1 at 24m a year and get back on the market in 2026 when more teams have cap space. Think about your 3/100 offer. It's basically:

2025: 31.8m
2026: 33.4m
2027: 35m

To match that $100m all Ingram would have to do is take $24m in a 1+1, get back on the market in in 2026 and then get a contract at sub 24% of the cap (less than his current contract).

2025: 24m
2026: 37.2m (24% of the cap)
2027: 39.1m

Guys take that risk all of the time. Plenty of teams would move salary around to give Ingram $24m next year. If Ingram thinks he can even get a slight raise in 2026 (relative to the cap) he could go as low as $18m and still come out at $100m over 3 years. If he thinks a healthy season can get him back closer to 30% of the cap then he comes out way ahead taking a 1+1.

There is a major risk in lowballing Ingram. In their prime players who are "all-stars" don't take paycuts. I don't think we should overpay him but Ingram is going to see 3/100 as a lowball offer. He's starting at $35m/yr easily. Honestly it's probably closer to $40m.

So with your logic BI wanted 40-50 from NO and they turned him down and now he left said team and will sign a more friendly contract cuz he doesn’t have much other options. Similar to GTJ wanted the big contract we said no so he took min to goto bucks.


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[CazOnReal]

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Gave my thoughts, really like the move given the cost and context of the team right now. Solid A range move for the long-term.

[bballsparkin]

I gave it a C. On the high end C+. Depending on the contract and health it could move up to an A.

[CPT]

I’m not concerned about him leaving because nobody wants him.

I am concerned about us bidding against ourselves and giving him over 40M. I don’t even think he’s a particularly good value at 30.

He’s not a bad player. He’s just one of those guys who doesn’t have a place on a good team. If he’s your first option, you’re winning 30 games. If he’s your second option, he better fit perfectly with your 1st, because he really likes having the ball. If he’s your third, he doesn’t do enough without the ball, and he probably makes too much.

This is assuming he’s actually on the court. Add in the health problems and it gets worse.

This has to go exceptionally well to get to a D.

[Shakril]

Not a fan of this trade, tbh. I gave it a C. I have never been high on Ingram myself, so I really do wonder what the front office sees in him as a player, but he is at least talented enough to warrant trading for.

It's pretty apparent that Masai thought he was being clever again by using Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk as salary fillers for Ingram after he failed to find any takers for them. I have a feeling this will backfire spectacularly, like most of his other "clever" trades (Grent and Poeltl come to mind), once Ingram gets vastly overpaid for what he brings and his contract cripples any remaining flexibility the Raptors have while being too difficult to move for value in the second apron era. My guess is Ingram's new contract is well above $40 million per year? Quickley got paid way more than anyone expected and I expect the same to happen with Ingram here. The Pacers pick was certainly necessary to complete the trade, but losing that pick (ie. cheap rookie contract and chosen by a well-drafting FO) will definitely hurt if the Pacers end up being worse than expected next season, which is still possible.

Between the Raptors stacking up meaningless wins over the last few weeks to lower their odds of getting true game-changing talent in the draft (in part thanks to players who are not part of the Raptors future), and this acquisition of Ingram to put next to Quickley and Barrett and Barnes who themselves are highly paid, it could very well be possible that the Raptors' window of contention ends before it could really begin. Unless Masai manages to rip off a few teams again, the ceiling of this team might be set at something like 2nd round exit for the foreseeable future.

Ingram and his team know that no one was willing to give him what he wants. There aren't many teams with cap space in the off season so the Raptors can play hard ball with him. They'll likely sign him to a 3 year 100M deal. That would be fair value for his production and the fact he's in his prime.

The other side needs to be considered too. Could the Raptors add a similarly talented player in free agency or through the draft? The chances of that are close to 0. They'll now be adding a top 10 pick, Ingram, and have an improved line up by shifting players to be in better positions. This means Barrett will be a SG again and Gradey will boost their bench.

Poeltl / Chomche / Maluach (2025 1st)
Barnes / Mogbo / Boucher
Ingram / Agbaji / Battle
Barrett / Dick / Walter
IQ / Shead / Larrea (2025 2nd)

That's a much stronger roster than what they started this season with. They also have a lot of flexibility, they can breakdown Barrett's contract and add on a cheap contract like Battle, Walter, or Agbaji and get back 2 great role players.

So you believe Ingram is going to take a pay cut? lol I swear we have the most delusional fans on realgm.

He definitly doesnt get what he would like to have. he should NOT be the hightest paid player on the team. So 33mil a year sounds reasonable.

[MEDIC]

This gives BI a 200M Contract (40M AAV)

Wow, this really highlights the value of Shead, Walter and the rest of our rookie contract players.

Makes this trade a potential overpay.

Also shows the value of late pick, or unpicked seniors (FVV, Norman Powell, Battle) who are more ready to play than the typical lottery pick freshmen out of college.

That's a great point. I have always been one to want to draft seniors if you are picking 20th or later. You can get some really good players & they don't need as much time to acclimatize to the NBA game, so there is more value on the initial contract.

[Pointgod]

Ingram and his team know that no one was willing to give him what he wants. There aren't many teams with cap space in the off season so the Raptors can play hard ball with him. They'll likely sign him to a 3 year 100M deal. That would be fair value for his production and the fact he's in his prime.

The other side needs to be considered too. Could the Raptors add a similarly talented player in free agency or through the draft? The chances of that are close to 0. They'll now be adding a top 10 pick, Ingram, and have an improved line up by shifting players to be in better positions. This means Barrett will be a SG again and Gradey will boost their bench.

Poeltl / Chomche / Maluach (2025 1st)
Barnes / Mogbo / Boucher
Ingram / Agbaji / Battle
Barrett / Dick / Walter
IQ / Shead / Larrea (2025 2nd)

That's a much stronger roster than what they started this season with. They also have a lot of flexibility, they can breakdown Barrett's contract and add on a cheap contract like Battle, Walter, or Agbaji and get back 2 great role players.

So you believe Ingram is going to take a pay cut? lol I swear we have the most delusional fans on realgm.

He definitly doesnt get what he would like to have. he should NOT be the hightest paid player on the team. So 33mil a year sounds reasonable.

Yeah that’s not happening. The most the Raptors can extend him for is 144 million over 3 seasons. He waived his trade kicker to be here and you think he’s going to give up 40 million out of the kindness of his heart?

[Shakril]

So you believe Ingram is going to take a pay cut? lol I swear we have the most delusional fans on realgm.

He definitly doesnt get what he would like to have. he should NOT be the hightest paid player on the team. So 33mil a year sounds reasonable.

Yeah that’s not happening. The most the Raptors can extend him for is 144 million over 3 seasons. He waived his trade kicker to be here and you think he’s going to give up 40 million out of the kindness of his heart?

Of course not. But he also realized that his market value is an all time low. He still is injured so his value will only drop further.
In the end, BI can either sign a reasonable contract (under 38 mil a year) or try free agency and see that the money isnt out there for him.

NO had big troubles trading him, cause no team wanted to pay him. Thats why they sold low as soon as they could.

[Pointgod]

He definitly doesnt get what he would like to have. he should NOT be the hightest paid player on the team. So 33mil a year sounds reasonable.

Yeah that’s not happening. The most the Raptors can extend him for is 144 million over 3 seasons. He waived his trade kicker to be here and you think he’s going to give up 40 million out of the kindness of his heart?

Of course not. But he also realized that his market value is an all time low. He still is injured so his value will only drop further.
In the end, BI can either sign a reasonable contract (under 38 mil a year) or try free agency and see that the money isnt out there for him.

NO had big troubles trading him, cause no team wanted to pay him. Thats why they sold low as soon as they could.

No team is going to pay Ingram the max but he can get a lot more than what you’re proposing from multiple teams. There’s always a team willing to pay or overpay. We literally just went through this with Fred and lost him for nothing. You can’t just insult players with **** offers because you’re cheap or you have poor roster management. Ingram is going to get paid either by us or someone else.

[Shakril]

Yeah that’s not happening. The most the Raptors can extend him for is 144 million over 3 seasons. He waived his trade kicker to be here and you think he’s going to give up 40 million out of the kindness of his heart?

Of course not. But he also realized that his market value is an all time low. He still is injured so his value will only drop further.
In the end, BI can either sign a reasonable contract (under 38 mil a year) or try free agency and see that the money isnt out there for him.

NO had big troubles trading him, cause no team wanted to pay him. Thats why they sold low as soon as they could.

No team is going to pay Ingram the max but he can get a lot more than what you’re proposing from multiple teams. There’s always a team willing to pay or overpay. We literally just went through this with Fred and lost him for nothing. You can’t just insult players with **** offers because you’re cheap or you have poor roster management. Ingram is going to get paid either by us or someone else.

I dont know what has been agreed to behind closed doors, but i have to assume that a reasonable extension was part of it. If not, then this trade gets worse. His injury Problems are already a big concern. Giving him a Albatross Contract would give me Bradely Beal vibes.

I have have enoug faith in Masai, that he wont overpay Ingram. If they do, we will have to trade one of RJ, IQ or Poeltl, with RJ beeing the most likely.

[Tripod]

His current cap hot of 38 million puts him in 28th spot in the league.

His 22.2 ppg puts him at 26th in the league. So he is being paid right around the right amount.

Maybe we see a 37-40-43 deal

[ontnut]

His current cap hot of 38 million puts him in 28th spot in the league.

His 22.2 ppg puts him at 26th in the league. So he is being paid right around the right amount.

Maybe we see a 37-40-43 deal

Good way to look at it. In terms of negotiations, they're going to try and get close to what Siakam got, which is 4 years guaranteed $188,950,272. That's the comp the agent will be using as a baseline. $47,250,000 avg. BI will get dinged for being not as good as Siakam, Siakam has the more recent AS appearances, more assists, better defender reputation, and better shooting this year. BI will obviously get dinged for his health issues. But he'll get a slight bump for his age. I don't think he gets Siakam's deal.

MPJ has similar injury concerns, and is a similar kind of player. He's got 3 years $114 million left. $38million average, with only $12m guaranteed in 2026/27, the final year of his contract. Maybe that's the kind of stipulation the Raptors could put in based on injury concerns, games played etc.

OG has a $41m avg for 4 years + a player option. They're both injury prone, but I think OG has more cache as an all-round player and top tier defender. He also had the NYK over a barrel (in somewhat a similar way that BI has us right now). But I'd argue BI's worth less currently since he's not top tier anything right now and is injured.

I think those are the top 3 comps that will be used to negotiate BI's upcoming contract. It will likely fall somewhere above MPJ and below OG, which comes out to around $39-40m avg, for 4 years. Maybe due to the injury concerns, Raptors give a partially guaranteed 5th year to sweeten the pot, which becomes guaranteed if BI makes an all-star/all-NBA team. If I was BI's agent, and I got that offer, I'd consider it strongly.

Obviously as a Raps fan, I want us to get players for the cheapest we possibly can. But considering what we gave up, and other potential suitors. I'd offer this deal and be ok locking him up at this price. They'd want more, we'd want less...which means it's probaby about fair.

[Zeno]

I think the base amounts of BI's contract extension will be right around what is posted on the table here but for three years. But the differences will be that there will be incentives based on games played and team performance that make the deal shocking for those here. I think we get him at 3 years 37 per flat. But incentives will take the reported amount on the deal to the 3 year 120+ range and there will be a player option on the end.

[ontnut]

I think the base amounts of BI's contract extension will be right around what is posted on the table here but for three years. But the differences will be that there will be incentives based on games played and team performance that make the deal shocking for those here. I think we get him at 3 years 37 per flat. But incentives will take the reported amount on the deal to the 3 year 120+ range and there will be a player option on the end.

That's an interesting take too. I'd be very happy getting him for $37m flat, but I don't think it'll happen. Adding in incentives though, to get him to a $40m+ avg is an interesting nuance that I hadn't thought about.

I think the incentives will have to be "likely" incentives. Maybe a 65 games played average (that the NBA implemented for awards) gets used as a yearly target to guarantee the $40m. Full guarantee on the incentives every year thereafter if he makes an ASG/All-NBA.

[WuTang_CMB]

Raps cashed in with their vets which is what we wanted.

We are tanking rest of the year for a high pick

Rolling into next year with BI that didnt cost much other than Indy pick and hopefully a top 5 pick are smart moves.

Gotta keep BI healthy but overall that trade is an A

[Zeno]

I think the base amounts of BI's contract extension will be right around what is posted on the table here but for three years. But the differences will be that there will be incentives based on games played and team performance that make the deal shocking for those here. I think we get him at 3 years 37 per flat. But incentives will take the reported amount on the deal to the 3 year 120+ range and there will be a player option on the end.

That's an interesting take too. I'd be very happy getting him for $37m flat, but I don't think it'll happen. Adding in incentives though, to get him to a $40m+ avg is an interesting nuance that I hadn't thought about.

If you look at the types of contract's that Rich Paul signs for players at what is perceived to be the low end of their current value, he tends to go for incentives and a player option. It may start at 35 go up to comes out at similar dollars with increases but then he's got to go to his new client and tell him he is making less than his current year which might be perceived as an L. The incentives may actually help us if he performs well, because if his final year number is too low, we would have trouble extending him in two year's time and have to let him go to free agency to properly pay him.

[ontnut]

I think the base amounts of BI's contract extension will be right around what is posted on the table here but for three years. But the differences will be that there will be incentives based on games played and team performance that make the deal shocking for those here. I think we get him at 3 years 37 per flat. But incentives will take the reported amount on the deal to the 3 year 120+ range and there will be a player option on the end.

That's an interesting take too. I'd be very happy getting him for $37m flat, but I don't think it'll happen. Adding in incentives though, to get him to a $40m+ avg is an interesting nuance that I hadn't thought about.

If you look at the types of contract's that Rich Paul signs for players at what is perceived to be the low end of their current value, he tends to go for incentives and a player option. It may start at 35 go up to comes out at similar dollars with increases but then he's got to go to his new client and tell him he is making less than his current year which might be perceived as an L. The incentives may actually help us if he performs well, because if his final year number is too low, we would have trouble extending him in two year's time and have to let him go to free agency to properly pay him.

Smart analysis. Didn't know that about Rich Paul clients/contracts. I'd be on board with that 100%. Hopefully we can negotiate that from our position.

[Tha Cynic]

He should be getting around $40 million+ and that’s fine as he will be the team's best scorer and will allow others to slot lower. I prefer looking at him in terms of what he does for this team and don’t care about what other teams do.

The player who’s overpaid will be Quickley for what he provides, but historically he has been a plus player with NY. Maybe that’s because he played as a bench player there. Either way, let’s see what this team can do. Their bench is a lot better and I think even without Ingram, they were a fringe playoff team if healthy. With Ingram they should be comfortably better than a play in team next season with players improving.

I look at the way they have improved the team with every subsequent move and that’s exactly how this team has operated in the past to build that championship team.

[StopitLeo]

I think his contract will land at around 25% of the cap. We will have two guys there with him and Scottie, which is fine. As long as you don’t have 3 guys at 25%+ things should be manageable. IQ an RJ are at 20% and declining.

[Thaddy]

The optimistic side of me thinks Barnes might elevate BI into a high 20s type of scorer. That might be Masai's vision? We're steering close to the 6'9 model he has.

Poeltl
Mogbo
Flagg
BI
Barnes

Barnes struggled at PG with his crappy handle but we should keep giving him reps there with IQ being load managed. In the future we would want him in a similar position to Lebron, Luka, and other wing initiators.