Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[CROBulls]

Giddey will not accept 14M offer sheet when he plays with bench player Patrick Williams being paid 20M per year. It's not happening. He is not signing that deal, unless offer sheets in summer are bad. And even then he will sign maybe shorter deal, like 3 year deal to opt out earlier. So he can test free agency sooner and maximize his earnings.

But lets be real, we dont have front office at moment so he will either leave for nothing or he is gonna get overpaid and stay with Bulls.

[coldfish]

What people should be debating is "at what contract is Giddey tradable?"

I'm not really sure what that is. He doesn't have a super desirable skill set with his defense and shooting. Is there *ANY* team in the NBA who wants him as a core piece as part of a good team?

IMO, if the Bulls are smart enough to let the market dictate (including possibly letting him take the QO), they can retain him for a reasonable contract. The market for Giddey is going to be pretty small.

Assuming they are not smart enough to do that, I hope they sign him to a declining deal such that it doesn't look to bad in year 3 or 4.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_maximum_space_optimized/dir/desc

This offseason, only Brooklyn has big capspace. They aren't knocking on Giddey's door. No one else can offer him a big contract.

IMO, a Patrick Williams type deal is reasonable for Giddey. Its just not reasonable for Patrick.

[jnrjr79]

I think half the league would instantly sign him if they knew it only took $14. You are just flatly misunderstanding his value and the NBA marketplace. That is a number where teams would sign him purely on the basis that he would be an instant positive asset you can trade for value, whether they want him or not.

Based on what?

You've not made any argument about the points raised. Where does a low efficiency player that compresses the court for all your other offensive players if the ball is not in his hands, and is going to be your most targeted guy on defense whom will get run off the floor by any serious team, fit in rotation wise on a typical NBA team?

Even if he is a great passer and good rebounder, he hurts you if the ball isn't in his hands on offense, always kills you on defense, and isn't good enough to be a primary on ball guy. He was traded away for a 30 year old bench player by a contending team last year and played out of their end game rotation (ie, they didn't think he was a top 5 player in their rotation and traded him for a bench guy). We have frequently benched him at end of games (ie, we also don't think he's a consistent top 5 player on our bad team when it comes to winning time).

A guy who is not a closing lineup guy is not worth 20M a year. Go look up every team in the league and average out the salary of the 6th highest paid player on the team if we assume Giddey is the next best guy as a non closer. I'd guess it's around 12M a year. It's certainly no where near 20M a year.

I'd also note over the last two years, Giddey has made no meaningful progress towards fixing his flaws, despite acknowledging the exact flaws that exist. I was one of the most pro-Giddey trade guys on the forum, but it's obvious watching him play for a year, that this isn't going to work. He's a not a closing lineup guy, and to me those guys don't make more than 15M.

Whether someone will pay him that much if it isn't us? Maybe, but let him test the market and find out then, and we can decide to match. The fact that someone might doesn't mean that we should or that he will have trade value if we do. To me, Giddey just isn't good enough to talk to pro-actively on a contract.

I actually think he’s made meaningful progress this season on the defensive end, but he’ll never be a plus defender and that limited progress is not enough to make me disagree with your overall point here. I’m pretty trepidations about signing a guy who then dictates your future roster construction to the extent he does (assuming he’s an intended starter).

[jnrjr79]

Giddey will not accept 14M offer sheet when he plays with bench player Patrick Williams being paid 20M per year. It's not happening. He is not signing that deal, unless offer sheets in summer are bad. And even then he will sign maybe shorter deal, like 3 year deal to opt out earlier. So he can test free agency sooner and maximize his earnings.

But lets be real, we dont have front office at moment so he will either leave for nothing or he is gonna get overpaid and stay with Bulls.

Honestly, the Bulls letting him test the market, find out big money doesn’t exist for him, and him opting to sign a shorter-term deal for lower dollars to try to get a big paycheck in a couple years seems like a better outcome than what I expect.

[PJSteven22]

I see Giddey is going to take Zach’s place as whipping boy even though is second highest ceiling player in this roster.

He is primed to have a good end to the season with Zach’s touches bring redistributed. 24 and 19 points respectively since that trade.

What ceiling? As a 7th man on a good team.

[PJSteven22]

He is also going to get more than $20m, so people should brace themselves for that. This 10-15-18m talk people have been saying comes across like they haven't kept up with what salaries are like in today's NBA. We have hit the point where $20m buys you low usage 5th starter or a good bench player. Caruso just got $20m on a long term deal as an injury prone 30 year old bench guy and no one even blinked at the contract.

I mean Giddey is a bench caliber player, so yes, that makes sense. FWIW, 20M on average makes you the 4th highest paid guy on a team. Giddey isn't the 4th best player on a good team.

In terms of how we will pay him, I think you are right. In terms of what I think he's really worth, I think it's about 14M, and that's with inflated NBA dollars taken into account. I view him as a non-starting caliber player.

He was literally the 4th best player on a 57 win team. And he wasn't some kind of anchor on that team, his +/- was right in line with Chet Holmgren & Jalen Williams.
Jalen: +5.4
Chet: +5.2
Giddey: +4.7

But I'm in the ballpark with you on price, he's simply not the kind of player that's ever your core top 2/3 on a contending team, he's roleplayer either as a starter/bench. Under $20M would be ideal because he's still a roleplayer.

And got benched because he couldn’t hit an outside shot routinely targeted in the playoffs.

[sco]

I mean Giddey is a bench caliber player, so yes, that makes sense. FWIW, 20M on average makes you the 4th highest paid guy on a team. Giddey isn't the 4th best player on a good team.

In terms of how we will pay him, I think you are right. In terms of what I think he's really worth, I think it's about 14M, and that's with inflated NBA dollars taken into account. I view him as a non-starting caliber player.

He was literally the 4th best player on a 57 win team. And he wasn't some kind of anchor on that team, his +/- was right in line with Chet Holmgren & Jalen Williams.
Jalen: +5.4
Chet: +5.2
Giddey: +4.7

But I'm in the ballpark with you on price, he's simply not the kind of player that's ever your core top 2/3 on a contending team, he's roleplayer either as a starter/bench. Under $20M would be ideal because he's still a roleplayer.

And got benched because he couldn’t hit an outside shot routinely targeted in the playoffs.

You guys made a lot of points that I was gonna make.

I see the issue about "building a roster around him" as having 2 sides. On the one hand you have a player who historically is both a bad 3pt shooter and defender. He's also not quick enough to cover most guards. On the other hand you have an elite passer and rebounder. In the middle you have his contract price. I am 200% on board with the "go test the market" strategy while telling the market we'll match. Very much a risk worth taking. Back to roster design, IMO, he can fit reasonably well at either forward spot, which offers up the opportunity to get scoring/shooting out of both guard spots, instead of needing a great passer there.

I still think we need to see how he finishes out the season...especially on the defensive end and 3pt shooting. I do see a big upward trajectory of late.

[dougthonus]

I still think we need to see how he finishes out the season...especially on the defensive end and 3pt shooting. I do see a big upward trajectory of late.

I see a bit of improvement defensively, but the physical limitations are just too much. I think the three point percentage is a bit up, but when you watch him, the problem isn't any better. Teams just completely ignore him off the ball with no fear whatsoever, and that creates insane amount of pressure on everyone else. They don't even close out on him hard. His release is really slow and looks as awkward as ever. If he can't hit those wide open, no one in his zip code, shots at near a 40% clip, then the benefit of completely ignoring him on defense outweighs the risk of him penalizing you.

In terms of being a good shooter, people will often look at the percentage without considering the impact on the offense. It is night and day the gap between say Giddey and Lonzo and how defenses treat them off ball even if their percentages are a few points a part.

And I put it that way because in a vacuum when looking over stats on basketball reference, it'd be easy to say "it's not that bad, if he can get 3% points better on his shot, then he's around the league average, but it really underplays what is actually happening on the court by a large amount.

That's partially why I was pretty high on him this summer when we made the trade, I was thinking statistically this doesn't look so bad and at his age he likely improves a bit each year and is at league average in a couple years, but I really didn't truly appreciate how defenses treat him and what that does until seeing it regularly.

[dougthonus]

Giddey will not accept 14M offer sheet when he plays with bench player Patrick Williams being paid 20M per year. It's not happening. He is not signing that deal, unless offer sheets in summer are bad. And even then he will sign maybe shorter deal, like 3 year deal to opt out earlier. So he can test free agency sooner and maximize his earnings.

But lets be real, we dont have front office at moment so he will either leave for nothing or he is gonna get overpaid and stay with Bulls.

Pat is making 18M not 20M (but I see your point, he may look at that).

In terms of offer sheets being bad in the summer, it is quite possible that he cannot find a single offer sheet above the MLE this summer. Brooklyn and Detroit right now are the only two teams on Dunc'd on's 2025 cap sheet that are below the cap, Brooklyn has a ton of money, Detroit has 20M and has no need for Giddey and needs the opposite type of players as they lack shooting and have a playmaker. Who knows what Brooklyn will do, but the media has said their plan is using their money to try and facilitate deals and collect assets.

I would say it is more likely than not that the choices this summer for Giddey are:
QO
MLE
Whatever he can negotiate with the Bulls

IF you are the Bulls, there should be no pressure to try and offer up 2x his best alternative to your contract.

[sco]

I still think we need to see how he finishes out the season...especially on the defensive end and 3pt shooting. I do see a big upward trajectory of late.

I see a bit of improvement defensively, but the physical limitations are just too much. I think the three point percentage is a bit up, but when you watch him, the problem isn't any better. Teams just completely ignore him off the ball with no fear whatsoever, and that creates insane amount of pressure on everyone else. They don't even close out on him hard. His release is really slow and looks as awkward as ever. If he can't hit those wide open, no one in his zip code, shots at near a 40% clip, then the benefit of completely ignoring him on defense outweighs the risk of him penalizing you.

In terms of being a good shooter, people will often look at the percentage without considering the impact on the offense. It is night and day the gap between say Giddey and Lonzo and how defenses treat them off ball even if their percentages are a few points a part.

And I put it that way because in a vacuum when looking over stats on basketball reference, it'd be easy to say "it's not that bad, if he can get 3% points better on his shot, then he's around the league average, but it really underplays what is actually happening on the court by a large amount.

That's partially why I was pretty high on him this summer when we made the trade, I was thinking statistically this doesn't look so bad and at his age he likely improves a bit each year and is at league average in a couple years, but I really didn't truly appreciate how defenses treat him and what that does until seeing it regularly.

After Februlauri, I'm always skeptical, but I will note that in Jan. he shot 37% on his 3's. In the 3 Feb games (obviously anecdotal) he's shooting 44% on 6 attempts per game. Not saying he's even an average 3pt shooter, but I'm saying that dimension of his game is on an upswing. Again my goal is to get him up to being an average defender and 3pt shooter because then the penalty for leaving him on the offensive end and attacking him on the defensive end may be high enough for teams to stop that.

[dawhizz]

What people should be debating is "at what contract is Giddey tradable?"

This would make a ton of sense if we had a front office that showed it is able to take advantage of a “tradable contract”. But there is no evidence that we have that. I was told Vic’s contract was tradable. I hear Ball’s new contract is very tradable. Every trade deadline we discuss players whose contracts make them most tradable now and nothing happens. Until this front office shows that it is able to maximize tradable contracts there is no reason to take that into consideration IMO.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I'm fine with anything up to 25

[dougthonus]

After Februlauri, I'm always skeptical, but I will note that in Jan. he shot 37% on his 3's. In the 3 Feb games (obviously anecdotal) he's shooting 44% on 6 attempts per game. Not saying he's even an average 3pt shooter, but I'm saying that dimension of his game is on an upswing. Again my goal is to get him up to being an average defender and 3pt shooter because then the penalty for leaving him on the offensive end and attacking him on the defensive end may be high enough for teams to stop that.

Maybe, that would make it a bit better, but the problem is still his release speed is so slow that you can still recover on him easily if you start paying some attention. That would be a big improvement though, and put him in a much higher category than completely ignore which is what it has been most of this year.

[Indomitable]

Giddey will not accept 14M offer sheet when he plays with bench player Patrick Williams being paid 20M per year. It's not happening. He is not signing that deal, unless offer sheets in summer are bad. And even then he will sign maybe shorter deal, like 3 year deal to opt out earlier. So he can test free agency sooner and maximize his earnings.

But lets be real, we dont have front office at moment so he will either leave for nothing or he is gonna get overpaid and stay with Bulls.

He is here next season not matter what.


He is restricted. Who cares he signs a 3 year deal?

He is not a future super star.

[MrSparkle]

This year’s FA class is so jammed. Wonder what kind of money gets tossed out. The cap is rising to $155M so several teams will be able to make offers, but not at the $20M+ mark we fear Giddey will get. So yes- pretty much Brooklyn is the only threat. If they offer Giddey $25M+, it will be horrific if Bulls match. It’ll be even worse if Chicago extends him without an offer sheet, over 20M.

Lebron, Kyrie, Harden likely stay put (although, who knows, these days).

Ingram likely resigns in Toronto; thus the trade.

Nazr Reid looking like the best 2-way UFA on the market. He’ll want to get paid. Minnesota goes deep into the tax to retain him if his market value is high. Miles Turner joins him as probably the best 2-way big.

Not sure where Randle fits into Wolves’ plans. Lot of scoring PFs hitting the market: Collins, Portis, and the interesting Aldama. And with Capela, Yabulese, Brook… lot of 1-way bigs out there. Bucks, Lakers, Rockets, Suns make their cheap MLE/MMLE bids for those guys.

I predict Rockets re-negotiate an extension for FVV…lower salary (his club option is $44m).

Giddey’s market should be 1 team: the Nets. They can also go the Kuminga direction, or just save their cap for bigger fish, collecting bad salaries and picks. They have some complicated pick trades and swaps. Ultimately it’s in their best interest to have a good team by 2027 (future swaps to OKC/HOU)… blowing money on Giddey or Kuminga isn’t as smart as buying bargain vets to surround their incoming top-10 prospect.

[Adriano]

What people should be debating is "at what contract is Giddey tradable?"

I'm not really sure what that is. He doesn't have a super desirable skill set with his defense and shooting. Is there *ANY* team in the NBA who wants him as a core piece as part of a good team?

IMO, if the Bulls are smart enough to let the market dictate (including possibly letting him take the QO), they can retain him for a reasonable contract. The market for Giddey is going to be pretty small.

Assuming they are not smart enough to do that, I hope they sign him to a declining deal such that it doesn't look to bad in year 3 or 4.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_maximum_space_optimized/dir/desc

This offseason, only Brooklyn has big capspace. They aren't knocking on Giddey's door. No one else can offer him a big contract.

IMO, a Patrick Williams type deal is reasonable for Giddey. Its just not reasonable for Patrick.

Thank you. Someone should send this by text to AK in daily basis untill the offseason comes to an end.

[WindyCityBorn]

Why is Giddey still in Chicago?
The Bulls have ZERO intention on resigning him as they still have White, Ayo and they just resigned Zo. This has to be one of the most mind-boggling trades (Caruso for Giddey) as we received ZERO compensation in this deal and now he will likely walk unless there is a S&T involved.

The Bulls have full intention of resigning Giddey. Coby White is on the trading block. Zo is a part time player.

[WindyCityBorn]

He's like if Rondo didn't have a brain. Doesn't love the game. If they extend him I'm probably hanging up the Bulls fandom.

What exactly is that based on?

Irrational dislike.

[WindyCityBorn]

He's like if Rondo didn't have a brain. Doesn't love the game. If they extend him I'm probably hanging up the Bulls fandom.

What exactly is that based on?

vibe check. he's gotten worse as his career has progressed.

No he has gotten less opportunities. Don’t surprised if he puts up similar numbers to his 2nd season over the last 30 games. He is basically our 3rd option now. 2nd option on nights Vuc doesn’t show up.

[WindyCityBorn]

I see Giddey is going to take Zach’s place as whipping boy even though is second highest ceiling player in this roster.

He is primed to have a good end to the season with Zach’s touches bring redistributed. 24 and 19 points respectively since that trade.

What ceiling? As a 7th man on a good team.

A starter on a great team. That’s my opinion.

I think he is 15/7/7 in his prime with average 3 point shooting and defense. Excellent passing, rebounding, hustle and overall BBIQ.