OT: Linkages between betting lines and NBA referees

[K_ick_God]

I just want to point out that nobody has seen his data and that we don't know if there is anything to it.

[Jeff Van Gully]

I just want to point out that nobody has seen his data and that we don't know if there is anything to it.

it's an invitation to see it

[StlHawksFan]

I just want to point out that nobody has seen his data and that we don't know if there is anything to it.

All the data come from L2M reports and BetUS lines. I'm happy to share it after the publication date.

[StlHawksFan]

Is the focus of your study only on L2M calls? Or are they just an indicator.

Tim Donaghy in his book said one of the main ways refs influence outcomes is to give two early fouls to a star. Like Kat's second last night

Yeah I can't measure that. Unfortunately only reviews on L2M calls are made public. But it also controls for statistical noise. All the games are tight. The inly real differences are the betting odds. Refs make roughly 20% to 40% more incorrect calls on favorites than underdogs. 20% more on home favorites and 40% more on visiting favorites. I can't prove the refs are gambling but I also cannot reject the presence of bias.

I get that any other method is subjective but is there a problem using the league's own review of correct/incorrect calls, as the judge of what's correct/incorrect?

Possibly, but at least they are presumably experts.