Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[Muzbar]

Giddey will be staying, AK won't admit mistake of Giddey, not yet.

I like the idea of Giddey, but he's pretty inconsistent, slow footed and his shooting form is horrendous.

I hope whatever deal the Bulls sign him to is maximum 3 years, don't make the same mistake he did with Pat.

Hopefully with Zach gone he can start playing a bit bigger role and it can help grow his confidence.

Peter Patton really need to rework that shot though, it's ugly. Lonzo should encourage him.

[PJSteven22]

What people should be debating is "at what contract is Giddey tradable?"

I'm not really sure what that is. He doesn't have a super desirable skill set with his defense and shooting. Is there *ANY* team in the NBA who wants him as a core piece as part of a good team?

IMO, if the Bulls are smart enough to let the market dictate (including possibly letting him take the QO), they can retain him for a reasonable contract. The market for Giddey is going to be pretty small.

Assuming they are not smart enough to do that, I hope they sign him to a declining deal such that it doesn't look to bad in year 3 or 4.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_maximum_space_optimized/dir/desc

This offseason, only Brooklyn has big capspace. They aren't knocking on Giddey's door. No one else can offer him a big contract.

IMO, a Patrick Williams type deal is reasonable for Giddey. Its just not reasonable for Patrick.

Thank you. Someone should send this by text to AK in daily basis untill the offseason comes to an end.

5/90 is terrible for Giddey too.

[PJSteven22]

I see Giddey is going to take Zach’s place as whipping boy even though is second highest ceiling player in this roster.

He is primed to have a good end to the season with Zach’s touches bring redistributed. 24 and 19 points respectively since that trade.

What ceiling? As a 7th man on a good team.

A starter on a great team. That’s my opinion.

I think he is 15/7/7 in his prime with average 3 point shooting and defense. Excellent passing, rebounding, hustle and overall BBIQ.

He sucks. He shoots about 6 percent below league average as far as TS%. He turns over the ball at a high rate. His defense is far too limited to not be weak on that end. He has no explosion and he’s slow so he won’t be able to put pressure on the rim. At best he’s Joe Ingles. That’s a strong bench piece or a fifth starter but right now he’s far away from that. That’s obviously not a player that’s a foundational piece.

[Dez]

He's actually getting very underrated at the moment.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

What exactly is that based on?

vibe check. he's gotten worse as his career has progressed.

No he has gotten less opportunities. Don’t surprised if he puts up similar numbers to his 2nd season over the last 30 games. He is basically our 3rd option now. 2nd option on nights Vuc doesn’t show up.

He had fewer* opportunities on a worse team that traded him for an excellent glue guy? That doesn’t make any sense, he has a green light here and he isn’t behind some studs like he was in OKC. OKC made a brilliant trade, minus AC’s injury history. Kiddey plays like he’s a stud but the skills don’t match. I think an interesting “risk” to take, but why not take that risk on mark williams or some other guy I’ve never heard about? The gm is supposed to have better ideas than me. Every move he makes is a flop.

He sucks and is passive and doesn’t have a bbiq.

Caruso is clearly a better player than Giddey.

[BigUps]

I'd give Giddey 10m a year, max. If he wants over that, I'm walking.

Thanks. I needed a laugh.

You're welcome. I hope that's clear on what I think he's worth. He's crap.

[Infinity2152]

What ceiling? As a 7th man on a good team.

A starter on a great team. That’s my opinion.

I think he is 15/7/7 in his prime with average 3 point shooting and defense. Excellent passing, rebounding, hustle and overall BBIQ.

He sucks. He shoots about 6 percent below league average as far as TS%. He turns over the ball at a high rate. His defense is far too limited to not be weak on that end. He has no explosion and he’s slow so he won’t be able to put pressure on the rim. At best he’s Joe Ingles. That’s a strong bench piece or a fifth starter but right now he’s far away from that. That’s obviously not a player that’s a foundational piece.

NBA player age average is 26.5, or 27 years old. Giddey is 22. Can he improve his TS% 6% in 5 years? Probably. All advanced stats comparing Giddey to average NBA players ignore the fact that he's 4.5 years younger than the average player. If somebody tabulated the stats of all 22 year old guards TS% and compare Giddey's, it won't look nearly as bad.

At 22 Ball, a very similar player, was shooting 36% from the field and 30.5% from 3. Much better shooter now. He's not particularly fast, explosive, or good at pressuring the rim either.

[MrSparkle]

Not that I think this FO could pull off a Miami/Brooklyn/LA free agency haul, but 2027 is a good year to target non-guaranteed and expiring contracts, minus Matas & and our next picks. if they meet Giddey 3/4th of the way on his wild contract hopes (let's say $20-25M guaranteed/long-term salary)... and they can't dump Patrick Williams... and Coby and/or Ayo resign... whoever else takes up cap (Matas, Jalen, roster holds)... That'll impact that big open cap they could have in 2026 & 27. Not the best FA options, but Trae Young will be an UFA in 26.

2027 is the year of Mitchell, Giannis, Jokic, KAT, Shai, Jalen Green and a lot of RFAs (i believe Chet's class... Paolo, Jabari, Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin, Dyson, Sochan, Jalen W., Eason, Kessler... maybe Mark Williams heals whatever caused the Lakers to can the trade... DALEN TERRY ). Unlikely that Jokic, Shai and Giannis leave their teams, but you also have to be bonkers to not shoot for the stars given as we have a stupid model of mediocrity and cost-saving.

If they could get Giddey to sign a 1-2 deal with a club option, I'm all for that. Locking him to 90/5 (let alone more) will be a disaster. This dumb team will have to shed a FRP to clear his salary and have a shot at 2027, and they'll come out with the Boozer of the FA class. **** I already know it will happen. It's gonna be like 2010, but without the D-Rose.

[Andi Obst]

2027 is the year of Mitchell, Giannis, Jokic, KAT, Shai, Jalen Green and a lot of RFAs...

Did you add Jalen Green to balance it out so we won't get too excited? To prepare us for the worst?

[MrSparkle]

2027 is the year of Mitchell, Giannis, Jokic, KAT, Shai, Jalen Green and a lot of RFAs...

Did you add Jalen Green to balance it out so we won't get too excited? To prepare us for the worst?

Yes

[dougthonus]

NBA player age average is 26.5, or 27 years old. Giddey is 22. Can he improve his TS% 6% in 5 years? Probably. All advanced stats comparing Giddey to average NBA players ignore the fact that he's 4.5 years younger than the average player. If somebody tabulated the stats of all 22 year old guards TS% and compare Giddey's, it won't look nearly as bad.

The average 22 year old is probably making the vet min on their first non rookie deal (given probably half of them just drop out of the league). That's kind of an irrelevant comparison.

At 22 Ball, a very similar player, was shooting 36% from the field and 30.5% from 3. Much better shooter now. He's not particularly fast, explosive, or good at pressuring the rim either.

So you are saying if Giddey was an great shooter and defender he'd be worth 20M a year like Lonzo Ball?

What does that make him worth while being very poor at both of these things?

[Adriano]

Ball even in his first game in 2+years after made a surgery that no one does in the history of the league was straight up better than Giddey. And some people laughing when is been said that he is worth 10 M/y for his next contract.

[PJSteven22]

A starter on a great team. That’s my opinion.

I think he is 15/7/7 in his prime with average 3 point shooting and defense. Excellent passing, rebounding, hustle and overall BBIQ.

He sucks. He shoots about 6 percent below league average as far as TS%. He turns over the ball at a high rate. His defense is far too limited to not be weak on that end. He has no explosion and he’s slow so he won’t be able to put pressure on the rim. At best he’s Joe Ingles. That’s a strong bench piece or a fifth starter but right now he’s far away from that. That’s obviously not a player that’s a foundational piece.

NBA player age average is 26.5, or 27 years old. Giddey is 22. Can he improve his TS% 6% in 5 years? Probably. All advanced stats comparing Giddey to average NBA players ignore the fact that he's 4.5 years younger than the average player. If somebody tabulated the stats of all 22 year old guards TS% and compare Giddey's, it won't look nearly as bad.

At 22 Ball, a very similar player, was shooting 36% from the field and 30.5% from 3. Much better shooter now. He's not particularly fast, explosive, or good at pressuring the rim either.

His age is irrelevant because a lot of his issues (even in the scoring department) are related to his lack of athleticism. He’s not going to become more athletic. Also he’s has a large enough sample size to safely assume that he’ll never be a good shooter. Especially with his release, it’s way too slow and clunky to be effective. He’d have to start from the ground up and he’d probably end up making his jump shot even worse if he does that.


No disrespect but Lonzo is a terrible comparison to Giddey. Lonzo didn’t put pressure on the rim but he was a pretty good athlete, especially at 22. Giddey was probably a Denzel Valentine level athlete. Just poor all across the board. Also Lonzo had better form on his jumper. Lonzo was already a good shooter by the time he was 22. Lonzo shot 37.5% from deep on 6.3 attempts per game. Not to mention that Lonzo was an all defensive caliber player as well.

[youtube] https://youtu.be/B9q1xVkVM3I?si=1LavC_SaWs3hZThy[/youtube]

[youtube] https://youtu.be/dTX2I7O9e-c?si=j8yNUUlVShqxTD-o[/youtube]

[Infinity2152]

NBA player age average is 26.5, or 27 years old. Giddey is 22. Can he improve his TS% 6% in 5 years? Probably. All advanced stats comparing Giddey to average NBA players ignore the fact that he's 4.5 years younger than the average player. If somebody tabulated the stats of all 22 year old guards TS% and compare Giddey's, it won't look nearly as bad.

The average 22 year old is probably making the vet min on their first non rookie deal (given probably half of them just drop out of the league). That's kind of an irrelevant comparison.

At 22 Ball, a very similar player, was shooting 36% from the field and 30.5% from 3. Much better shooter now. He's not particularly fast, explosive, or good at pressuring the rim either.

So you are saying if Giddey was an great shooter and defender he'd be worth 20M a year like Lonzo Ball?

What does that make him worth while being very poor at both of these things?

Don't see how the amount of money the average 22 year old makes has to do with his skill progression. If anything, the fact that Giddey is expected to get significantly more would indicate he's better than the average player his age. Age is 100% factored in when evaluating contracts. This whole lobby was saying Jimmy wouldn't/shouldn't get paid because he's too old. Old age matters, but youth does not, apparently.

It also ignores the point. Most advanced comparative statistics will use the average of all players. If the average age is 26.5 or 27, comparing TS%, rebounding rate or any other stat compared to average means a 22-year-old is being compared to NBA players in their prime, around 27. Seems to make sense the average 22-year-old would be below average in many areas if the average age is 27. Those 27-year-olds have 5 more years of experience and skill progression.

Giddey's shooting 34% from three. That's pretty far from being "very poor" at shooting. Player average for 2024 was around 36.7, according to Statmuse. That would mean he needs to hit another 2.7 3s per 100 shots to be average. He averages about 4 3PA a game, so an extra 2-3 makes every 25 games. So you all are expecting absolutely NO improvement in his shooting over the next few years, for some inexplicable reason. Because his shooting has improved every year.

Healthy Ball is worth much more and would get much more than $20 mill a year, lmao! Ball got $20 mill 4 years ago. He also shot 41% from the field, so while his three point shot improved, he wasn't scoring all that efficiently. The salary cap that year was 112 mill, the salary cap for next year is 141 mill. The cap has increased around 25%, so that contract is equivalent to a $25 mill/yr contract today. And Ball had previous injury issues.

[Infinity2152]

He sucks. He shoots about 6 percent below league average as far as TS%. He turns over the ball at a high rate. His defense is far too limited to not be weak on that end. He has no explosion and he’s slow so he won’t be able to put pressure on the rim. At best he’s Joe Ingles. That’s a strong bench piece or a fifth starter but right now he’s far away from that. That’s obviously not a player that’s a foundational piece.

NBA player age average is 26.5, or 27 years old. Giddey is 22. Can he improve his TS% 6% in 5 years? Probably. All advanced stats comparing Giddey to average NBA players ignore the fact that he's 4.5 years younger than the average player. If somebody tabulated the stats of all 22 year old guards TS% and compare Giddey's, it won't look nearly as bad.

At 22 Ball, a very similar player, was shooting 36% from the field and 30.5% from 3. Much better shooter now. He's not particularly fast, explosive, or good at pressuring the rim either.

His age is irrelevant because a lot of his issues (even in the scoring department) are related to his lack of athleticism. He’s not going to become more athletic. Also he’s has a large enough sample size to safely assume that he’ll never be a good shooter. Especially with his release, it’s way too slow and clunky to be effective. He’d have to start from the ground up and he’d probably end up making his jump shot even worse if he does that.


No disrespect but Lonzo is a terrible comparison to Giddey. Lonzo didn’t put pressure on the rim but he was a pretty good athlete, especially at 22. Giddey was probably a Denzel Valentine level athlete. Just poor all across the board. Also Lonzo had better form on his jumper. Lonzo was already a good shooter by the time he was 22. Lonzo shot 37.5% from deep on 6.3 attempts per game. Not to mention that Lonzo was an all defensive caliber player as well.

[youtube] https://youtu.be/B9q1xVkVM3I?si=1LavC_SaWs3hZThy[/youtube]

[youtube] https://youtu.be/dTX2I7O9e-c?si=j8yNUUlVShqxTD-o[/youtube]

Is Luka going to become more athletic? Is Jokic? There a lot of players who aren't particularly athletic that excel in the NBA. This is the same logic that had us trading Elton Brand for Tyson Chandler. There are any number of NBA players who have completely changed their shots, many after age 21. Lebron has tinkered with his shot his whole career. Brook Lopez didn't even start shooting 3's until his 7th season and shot 10% and 14% the first two years he tried. Miss me with players can't improve their shooting when his percentage has literally been going up every year. There are no facts to support this. Ball's not athletic now, but he's still a good defender. Much more to half court offense and defense than athleticism.

Lonzo is a great comparison to Giddey, you just don't like it. Similar size, same position. Both good rebounders and passers. Both poor jump shooters when they started. Both got multiple triple-doubles or close many times while young. Ball was slightly more athletic, Giddey's slightly taller. Lonzo shot 31% from three his first year, 33% his second. Know what people were saying about his shot? The same thing they're saying about Giddey's, it was too slow and clunky. He'll never be able to fix it. He rebuilt his shot, exactly what you're saying Gddey can't do. Name two more comparable players to Giddey, since Ball is a bad example. I'll wait. Possibly the best vet in the league for Giddey to learn from. A terrible comparison would be like Haliburton or Fox or Lillard.

What people were saying about Ball's jumper.

https://www.stack.com/a/why-lonzo-balls-shooting-struggles-may-have-nothing-to-do-with-his-unorthodox-form/

https://www.bleachernation.com/bulls/2021/11/17/lonzo-balls-3-point-shooting-is-better-than-ever-but-about-those-layups/

Since ya'll like to use TS% so much, Giddey's TS% his rookie year was 48%. It's 54% this year. Not great, but come on, that's a huge improvement.

[eierluke]

Statisticly Giddey in his 4th year almost exactly puts up his careers avarage stats this season. So that does not look like there is a great developement upfront even if he's still just aged 22 now.
Not admitting an error is = making the next error. I fear AK will ignore this error again and will extend Giddey to above PWill numbers - until someone fires AK.
Nothing against Giddey, he could be a useful role player - just not someone who you want to start a rebuilding with (don't extend role players until you do have stars aboard)

[MrSparkle]

We’ve seen the script over and over again. I fully expect a salary extension in the $25M zone, before he gets a RFA offer.

If he guarantees 3Ys+, then we are as screwed as we’ve been the last 3Y. We’re gonna have $100M invested in a 10-seed core with barely any upside over the worst 5 teams in the league.

I kind of hope the Nets come up with a stupid offer, or Josh just decides he doesn’t like playing for the Bulls. The only thing Billy does right, is he doesn’t hesitate benching Josh in the clutch.

[Chi town]

Only way Giddey can improve enough to even be worth 18M Pat’s number is if he has a Lonzo like upgrade in his shot.

I’m not paying Giddey more than 15M per. 3/45 with team option. If he finds his shot he’s a value contract if not he’s tradable and you can move on.

[Infinity2152]

The problem is these salary expectations don't reflect reality. In reality, players making in the $16-20 mill range include Kevin Huerter, Rui, Bogdanovic, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Patrick Williams, Jusef Nurkic, Norman Powell, Duncan Robinson, D' Angelo Russell, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poetl, Vucevic, DeAndre Hunter. There are some providing value in that range, Collin Sexton, Myles Turner, Josh Hart, Derrick White. They are considered value contracts and close to 30 years old. But far more players in that range with arguably less value than Giddey. Nobody Giddey's age putting up his numbers is maxing out at $15 mill/yr. That's role player money, not even sixth man really.

If Giddey was shooting like Ball, 38-40% from three, he's getting $25-30 mill EASY.

[Jcool0]

Only way Giddey can improve enough to even be worth 18M Pat’s number is if he has a Lonzo like upgrade in his shot.

I’m not paying Giddey more than 15M per. 3/45 with team option. If he finds his shot he’s a value contract if not he’s tradable and you can move on.

Your not paying him so doesn't really matter what you would do.