What should be Average Annual Value (AAV) of Ingram's new contract?

[srhcan]

Raptors are allergic to paying the tax. It will completely depend on where they pick. My guess is that they will give him a starting value such that we factor in the 2025 first round pick, second round pick and one minimum contract. And then give him a 5 year deal with 8% raises on top of that. With a player option in his 5th year.

So if that comes down to $35M starting value then the breakdown per year would be:

$35M
$37.8M
$40.6M
$43.4M
$46.2M (player option)

Or $203M/5 or an AAV of $40.6M. Feels reasonable to me.


If we get Flagg, then he would make $13,825,920.

Our cap without Flagg and 10 players would be:
$139,155,433

$13,825,920 (Flagg)
$2,221,677 (2RP)
$1,400,156 (min)
===============
Total: $156,603,186 (13 players, no BI)

Tax Line: $187,895,000

The difference is $31,291,814. I think that's too small, but a 5 year AAV with 8% raises would be a paltry $36.3M AAV.

My guess is if we get Flagg, one of RJ or IQ get moved in the summer to ensure BI gets what he wants and we duck the tax.

I think Masai will ask BI to play 10+ games this season to see the fit. Let's see how BI performs in those games. Those games may affect Raptors draft position adversely which is a win for FO but a loss for team's future.

[TorontoBarneys]

If we're being realistic here, he's not gonna get anything lower than 40m. People should just throw the 35m number out of their minds and save themselves some mental anguish.

I'm guessing it's going to be a number that's closer to 45m than 40m.

[AkelaLoneWolf]

35M would be wishful thinking but possible if he hurts himself again before the season ends.
40M seems like the minimum if he's healthy and plays normal.
45M seems like what he could get if he comes back and plays great.

My guess is that he'll get 42.5M over 4 years and this board will lose its mind when the difference in value is just a minimum contract lol.

I can see a contract structure contingent on games played. bonuses resulting in 40MM AAV if he stays healthy. not sure if that would be considered a 'likely' bonus to count against the cap.

[AkelaLoneWolf]

We’re probably overpaying because he agreed to live in Canada instead of America. That’s the truth of the matter. If it’s a fair value contract then that’s huge for us because he’s a UFA and if he agreed to those terms then finally we got an American guy to come and stay without overpaying.

no other team will pay him what he's asking for. his market right now is one team. its in his best interest to work with us to secure a contract. and I think all sides know that.

[ItsDanger]

Yes, let's not worry until 2026 to resolve any potential tax problems. That's why teams get into these situations where they need to trade out of it. Often, at a loss. Then you'll hear, oh, we had to do that trade to avoid the tax. Maybe plan ahead better. Maybe try and save $2-$6M in certain contracts. Then you mitigate these problems.

[ChillRelaxDude]

If we're being realistic here, he's not gonna get anything lower than 40m. People should just throw the 35m number out of their minds and save themselves some mental anguish.

I'm guessing it's going to be a number that's closer to 45m than 40m.

Ppl saying 35 million are setting the stage to come here and say that Masai is cooked whenever it's announced at 40+ million.

I'm just hoping it's structured like IQs so as the cap grows we won't feel the pinch as badly.

[Brinbe]

Well, BI's at 38 right now and will probably get a bit of a raise so 40-42? Something in that range? Which I don't know why people are complaining about. Even if it's 45, Kelly O/Boucher/Bruce were making 43 combined between the 3 of them this season lol. Boucher, assuming that he'll even be back, will get a vastly reduced deal probably closer to the vet min. They know what is space available including the amount allocated to the draft picks and will fit everything in.

Quickley/Shead/Draft Pick?
RJ/Ochai/Walter/Draft pick?
Ingram/Gradey/Battle
Barnes/Mogbo/Boucher?
Yak/Robinson?/Chomche?

As we can see, 11 roster spots are alread accounted for next season and that's not even counting the draft picks and Boucher. So including the picks, that's 13. They usually do leave the last few spots open for two ways or a fringe guy. So they may convert Chomche up next year. That's 14.

I think people are making a bigger deal out of this sudden 'cap crunch' than it is. The cap is gonna rise big time over the next few years and Yak isn't gonna get some huge raise. Ochai will get a modest raise but nothing crazy but I think people need to see what the capsheets look like elsewhere before freaking out. They were always gonna consolidate at some point regardless of if they got Ingram or not. When/if they decide to trade RJ, assuming he's the odd one out, they'll literally have Ochai/Gradey/Walter to choose from to fill that spot. At that point ideally Ochai is probably ready to fill that spot as the 5th starter.

[planetmars]

Raptors are allergic to paying the tax. It will completely depend on where they pick. My guess is that they will give him a starting value such that we factor in the 2025 first round pick, second round pick and one minimum contract. And then give him a 5 year deal with 8% raises on top of that. With a player option in his 5th year.

So if that comes down to $35M starting value then the breakdown per year would be:

$35M
$37.8M
$40.6M
$43.4M
$46.2M (player option)

Or $203M/5 or an AAV of $40.6M. Feels reasonable to me.


If we get Flagg, then he would make $13,825,920.

Our cap without Flagg and 10 players would be:
$139,155,433

$13,825,920 (Flagg)
$2,221,677 (2RP)
$1,400,156 (min)
===============
Total: $156,603,186 (13 players, no BI)

Tax Line: $187,895,000

The difference is $31,291,814. I think that's too small, but a 5 year AAV with 8% raises would be a paltry $36.3M AAV.

My guess is if we get Flagg, one of RJ or IQ get moved in the summer to ensure BI gets what he wants and we duck the tax.

I think Masai will ask BI to play 10+ games this season to see the fit. Let's see how BI performs in those games. Those games may affect Raptors draft position adversely which is a win for FO but a loss for team's future.

It's a lottery so even if they end up with the 7th worst draft slot, they could still get the #1 pick. So they are not going to manipulate the draft pick. They will play BI a few times because he's on the team and they will want to see him. But BI did not adversely affect the Pelicans draft slot and he still played in 18 games this year.

The Raptors front office will find a way to duck the tax if they get Flagg. In that "worst case" situation (which is actually the best case situation), they will have all year to find a way to get below the tax. They could trade Dick, Ochai, RJ, IQ, Jak, etc.

Or they could just pay the tax.

[causal_fan]

Should be 3/100M - will be 3/144M and Masai/Bobby will say what a bargain.

[Pointgod]

If we're being realistic here, he's not gonna get anything lower than 40m. People should just throw the 35m number out of their minds and save themselves some mental anguish.

I'm guessing it's going to be a number that's closer to 45m than 40m.

The most we can extend him for is 3 years 144. I see 3 years 135 with the third year a player option where Ingram will be eligible to get paid under 10 years of service rule.

[ForeverTFC]

If you start a 3-year contract at ~$37m with 8% annual raises, it's ~$40m AAV.

[Appostis]

Should be 3/100M - will be 3/144M and Masai/Bobby will say what a bargain.

The name fits.

So he's getting a pay cut?

[ontnut]

Copying my post from another thread because it’s an exact analysis of this question.

Good way to look at it: In terms of negotiations, BI’s camp are going to try and get close to what Siakam got, which is 4 years guaranteed $188,950,272. That's the comp the agent will be using as a baseline. $47,250,000 avg. BI will get dinged for being not as good as Siakam, Siakam has the more recent AS appearances, more assists, better defender reputation, and better shooting this year. BI will obviously get dinged for his health issues. But he'll get a slight bump for his age. I don't think he gets close to Siakam's deal.

MPJ has similar injury concerns, and is a similar kind of player. He's got 3 years $114 million left. $38million average, with only $12m guaranteed in 2026/27, the final year of his contract. Maybe that's the kind of stipulation the Raptors could put in based on injury concerns, games played etc.

OG has a $41m avg for 4 years + a player option. They're both injury prone, but I think OG has more cache as an all-round player and top tier defender. He also had the NYK over a barrel (in somewhat a similar way that BI has us right now). But I'd argue BI's worth less currently since he's not top tier anything right now and is injured.

I think those are the top 3 comps that will be used to negotiate BI's upcoming contract. It will likely fall somewhere above MPJ and below OG, which comes out to around $39-40m avg, for 4 years. Maybe due to the injury concerns, Raptors give a partially guaranteed 5th year to sweeten the pot, which becomes guaranteed if BI makes an all-star/all-NBA team. If I was BI's agent, and I got that offer, I'd consider it strongly.

Then there’s the question of extension vs FA signing. It’s rumoured to be a 3 year extension, which if that’s the case, I expect the AAV to be around the same but structure to give raises so the final year is the highest $$ to set the baseline for a future extension. If it’s a longer FA signing, I think Masai will go for a flat contract with the final years partially guaranteed and/or incentive based.

[MoneyBall]

I'm gonna lose it if he gets Siakam range.

[srhcan]

Should be 3/100M - will be 3/144M and Masai/Bobby will say what a bargain.

The name fits.

So he's getting a pay cut?

People should at least check how much he is making this year ($38M) before posting their numbers. No way he is getting a pay cut.

[RealFaction]

I'm gonna lose it if he gets Siakam range.

Same. He isn't better than Siakam no matter how much guys cream for him. We're essentially paying for his prime, but injury concerns and middling advanced stats don't make him an elite offensive player unless he brings it efficiently to a whole new level.

[ChillPill]

Ingram shoots better than Siakam, which I think is significant.

[CoinTossRoss31]

He can only extend for 3 years right?

3 Yr / 125 million me thinks

[Senbonzakura]

Ik the cap has changed massively over the years obviously. But I remember the days where people on this board were losing their minds because DeMar got 9.5M a year.

[Hottie McShotty]

I can't believe how much money these NBA players are getting... It's crazy.