wadenation305 wrote:We're not getting Luka. The Lakers can still give him 340 mil over 5 vs 250 over 4 from anyone else. That's a 90 Mil difference. These guys are always going to go for the bigger number. If he thinks about leaving, he will sign the contract first and then demand a trade. At that point the Lakers got him for pennies on the dollar but will want the entire family fortune for him. Just like housing now days.
Sign and Trade. If a team has space to sign him, Lakers will get something for him. If not, he can sign outright.
wadenation305 wrote:We're not getting Luka. The Lakers can still give him 340 mil over 5 vs 250 over 4 from anyone else. That's a 90 Mil difference. These guys are always going to go for the bigger number. If he thinks about leaving, he will sign the contract first and then demand a trade. At that point the Lakers got him for pennies on the dollar but will want the entire family fortune for him. Just like housing now days.
Luka is no longer eligible for the supermax (it would have been 5 years, $345M with Dallas).
I'd pretty confidently bet that Luka Doncic is going to opt for a contract that gives him the option to be a free agent in 2028 as that is when he will be eligible to sign a new contract at "Supermax levels" (35% of cap) due to accruing 10 years in the NBA.
Whether Luka extends with LA now or waits until 2026 free agency to sign a contract, I do not expect that contract to be any longer than 2 years with a 3rd year player option (that he will opt out of for 2028 free agency).
When a player is the caliber of Luka and still in his 20s, the longest contract isn't the driving factor if its not associated with higher $. It's keeping optionality open while being able to maximize earnings.
Sorry Chat GPT gave me the wrong info, he is eligible for 280 from LA vs 210 from anyone else. Still a 70 Mil difference. And even if he signs a short 3 year with the third as a player option it will still be a higher figure, while already being in the LA big Market. I find it hard to think that he will go elsewhere. The Lakers would have to fumble pretty hard for him to leave.
wadenation305 wrote:We're not getting Luka. The Lakers can still give him 340 mil over 5 vs 250 over 4 from anyone else. That's a 90 Mil difference. These guys are always going to go for the bigger number. If he thinks about leaving, he will sign the contract first and then demand a trade. At that point the Lakers got him for pennies on the dollar but will want the entire family fortune for him. Just like housing now days.
Sign and Trade. If a team has space to sign him, Lakers will get something for him. If not, he can sign outright.
Sign and trade is a problem. This is Luka, and Pelinka is not the Dallas (Please Use More Appropriate Word) GM. Convo goes like this: " Yea we'll sign and trade him to you, we just want Ware, Jovic, Herro and all your picks for him."
wadenation305 wrote:We're not getting Luka. The Lakers can still give him 340 mil over 5 vs 250 over 4 from anyone else. That's a 90 Mil difference. These guys are always going to go for the bigger number. If he thinks about leaving, he will sign the contract first and then demand a trade. At that point the Lakers got him for pennies on the dollar but will want the entire family fortune for him. Just like housing now days.
Luka is no longer eligible for the supermax (it would have been 5 years, $345M with Dallas).
I'd pretty confidently bet that Luka Doncic is going to opt for a contract that gives him the option to be a free agent in 2028 as that is when he will be eligible to sign a new contract at "Supermax levels" (35% of cap) due to accruing 10 years in the NBA.
Whether Luka extends with LA now or waits until 2026 free agency to sign a contract, I do not expect that contract to be any longer than 2 years with a 3rd year player option (that he will opt out of for 2028 free agency).
When a player is the caliber of Luka and still in his 20s, the longest contract isn't the driving factor if its not associated with higher $. It's keeping optionality open while being able to maximize earnings.
Sorry Chat GPT gave me the wrong info, he is eligible for 280 from LA vs 210 from anyone else. Still a 70 Mil difference. And even if he signs a short 3 year with the third as a player option it will still be a higher figure, while already being in the LA big Market. I find it hard to think that he will go elsewhere. The Lakers would have to fumble pretty hard for him to leave.
Whatever the difference in total $ amount is, I believe it is only if LA is able to offer an additional year--not about being able to offer more on a per annum basis. I do not believe it will be a higher figure on an annual basis.
As I've already highlighted, it would be a mistake on Lukas part, and cost him $ if he opted for anything more than a 2-year contract with options for anyhting beyond that.
You speak of LA big market and speak about the importance of difference in earnings but neglect the tax implications going from TX to CA.
I'd put it at over 50% chance that Luka stays in LA through 2028 and beyond. I get the draw. But, it seems many on here want to ignore the other items that have leveled the playing field in a free agency pursuit (not just by Miami, but by the entire NBA) for Luka just bc he's in LA.
From a team building perspective, they have a long way to go to satiate Luka's strong desire to contend IMO. Can never count out a team with 2 guys that can play as top 10 players any given night, but LeBron ain't on the right side of 40 and the path to attaining the next crop of stars seems more tenuous than you might think.
If LeBron retires after this season, what are the likely paths for the Lakers to surround Luka with similar level talent?
Ugh I was going to make a longer post with more in depth stats but bballref apparently licensed out their stat search database to another website that uses a subscription model (really hate the modern internet), so this won't be as in depth as I'd like but the general point should still come across. It will be long enough as is, I'll include a tl;dr at the bottom.
So on the discussion of who can be your best player on a championship team, I totally agree on past precedent Herro is not that guy. That being said, I'm going to try to make the argument that he could be (not that he is right now, but could), based on the way the league has changed, and a guy that has already set that precedent.
Who lead teams to chamiponships?
Spoiler:
To start with, going back to the 80's, which is the beginning of what we'd call the modern NBA, I'd say teams main focus was on having either a dominant big or a great point guard as their primary piece, with Larry Bird sort of acting as an outlier. If you look at that decades champions and their best players, its dominated by Moses Malone (big), Kareem (big), Magic Johnson (point guard), Isiah Thomas (point guard) and Larry Bird (wing).
In the 90's, Jordan establishes the wing as a clear cut option for your best player, taking 6 chips, with Isiah (point guard), Hakeem (big) and Robinson/Duncan (big) filling in the non Jordan years.
In the 00's, you have another big and wing dominant decade with the point guard falling off, with Shaq (big), Duncan (big), Pistons (defense/ensemble/outlier), Wade (wing), Garnett (big) and Kobe (wing).
In the 10's, you see it mostly dominated by wings, with the point guard making a return... with a caveat, which I'll get to at the end of this, with Dirk (wing/pseudo big), LeBron (wing), Spurs (shooting/defense/ensemble), Curry (point guard), Durant (wing) (up to you if you want to value him over Curry for some of those chips), and Kawhi (wing).
In the current decade, it continues to be mostly wings, with only one point guard and big, and the big filling up the stat sheet like a wing player and a bit of a unicorn. We have LeBron (wing), Giannis (wing), Curry (point guard), Jokic (big), and Tatum/Brown (wing).
OK, so what's my point in all of this? Well, to have a shot at a chip, typically you want your best player to fit the mold of one of those other guys up above.
What the cutoffs are for these players
Spoiler:
For the wings, you typically want to see something along the lines of 25/5/5 with good efficiency and elite defense. Stat inflation probably ups some of those bench marks, so lets say for wings its more like 28/7/7 now. So your SGA's, Giannis, Anthony Edwards is on the cusp, etc.
For the bigs, you used to be looking at 20/10, and with inflation, probably more like 24/12, but even then bigs are being phased out in importance. Still, for arguments sake, you have guys like Embiid, Anthony Davis, Jokic.
For point guard, we're talking 20/8, maybe 22/10 now or something with inflation. Funny enough only guy here is Trae Young... but I think in general the point guard has also been phased out, and this is something I was going to get to with Curry. See, Curry was never a huge volume assists guy. He got them, but it was more a function of his gravity than pure passing ability. Also, plenty of 20/8 and above guys in the past never lead teams to championships, as I think having the go-to scorer tended to be more important (think Chris Paul, peak Deron Williams, John Stockton, Steve Nash etc, all great players but couldn't get their teams over the hump).
Why Tyler might be viable:
Spoiler:
That said, I think Curry has broken through and created a new category... high volume high % 3-point shooter. Let's call them snipers. He's lead teams to championships in multiple years, so it isn't a one-off event, either. And I think its as much a function of the league's shift in prioritizing the 3 as it is in Curry's own natural ability, both building off each other.
Now, what's the cutoff for a sniper? Guess you can put it anywhere, but I'd start at something like 10+ 3PA's per game on over 38% shooting, combined with over 25 ppg. 38% is the low end for Curry's chips, and while he did only score 23 on 8 3's a game in the first one, stat inflation hadn't really hit that hard by that point yet.
By those metrics, looking at the league this season, the only player who hits those cutoffs is Anthony Edwards, a guy nearly everyone agrees could be a #1 on a championship team. If you look at the guys closest to hitting all 3 but missing by a small amount though, its Curry himself (off by 2 ppg), Jayson Tatum (off by 2% points), Donovan Mitchell (off by 1 ppg and 1 attempt), Damian Lillard (off by 1 attempt) and... Tyler Herro (off by 1 ppg).
TL;DR, traditionally you needed a dominant all around wing, a dominant big, or a dominant point guard to lead a championship team (or you were the Pistons/Spurs). Now with the way the league has shifted to the 3-point shot, I'd argue there's a new category that can lead a team to chips, the sniper. And Herro is a guy that is very nearly in that category, and young enough that there is still a bit of room for improvement.
Funny enough, I don't care for the change in the style of play. But it is what it is, and if the NBA continues in this direction, I think you'll continue to see more teams led by snipers that win it all.
(side note, Joker's stats are so sick, if he had more volume on his 3's, he could hit the cutoffs for point guard, wing, big, and sniper all in the same player. he really is a unicorn)
How many times has Jaime had the chits this season?!
The phuck bro
Too many hot wings at the super bowl party.
Winning move for him not to play tbh.
Miami pulls the stealth tank move and balances his absence with Tyler.
Tyler looks like he’s playing as not ruled out like weak stomach Jaime. The new additions round out the lineup nicely. Kyle Anderson will get plenty of work tonight.
heater4life wrote:I’m a fan of Herros game, I’m just not a fan of his game as a primary nor secondary option. He just doesn’t have enough handles nor creation ability to do it for me, nor does he have the defense to round out his deficiencies on the offensive end.
I think his current level of play is his ceiling. Although he may be more talented, I see him in the mold of Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, J Clarkson, Jason Terry, Ginobilli. I see elite scoring role player.
I think if the Heat ever have the chance to unload him for a legitimate primary option, they’ll do it.
He’s gone the second Ant comes available
This assumes that the rest of Mia's offer could adequately beat out the competition.
If another team offers 8 picks for Ant, Herro and scraps wont be getting it done.
A good stat of Davion Mitchell that is usually a staple of Heat defense and that's drawing charges. Mitchell is 31st of all NBA players in drawing charges.
heater4life wrote:I’m a fan of Herros game, I’m just not a fan of his game as a primary nor secondary option. He just doesn’t have enough handles nor creation ability to do it for me, nor does he have the defense to round out his deficiencies on the offensive end.
I think his current level of play is his ceiling. Although he may be more talented, I see him in the mold of Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, J Clarkson, Jason Terry, Ginobilli. I see elite scoring role player.
I think if the Heat ever have the chance to unload him for a legitimate primary option, they’ll do it.
He’s gone the second Ant comes available
This assumes that the rest of Mia's offer could adequately beat out the competition.
If another team offers 8 picks for Ant, Herro and scraps wont be getting it done.
wadenation305 wrote:We're not getting Luka. The Lakers can still give him 340 mil over 5 vs 250 over 4 from anyone else. That's a 90 Mil difference. These guys are always going to go for the bigger number. If he thinks about leaving, he will sign the contract first and then demand a trade. At that point the Lakers got him for pennies on the dollar but will want the entire family fortune for him. Just like housing now days.
Sign and Trade. If a team has space to sign him, Lakers will get something for him. If not, he can sign outright.
Sign and trade is a problem. This is Luka, and Pelinka is not the Dallas (Please Use More Appropriate Word) GM. Convo goes like this: " Yea we'll sign and trade him to you, we just want Ware, Jovic, Herro and all your picks for him."
No problem at all. They’d have no leverage. He can just leave, they’d be inclined to get something in return for nothing. As has always been the case in FA sign and trades. I can’t recall of a single team strong arming a FA signing.
