Selling Expiring deals

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Selling Expiring deals 

Post#1 » by Butter » Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:23 am

Speaking generally, what is the value of deals that expire at the end of the 25/26 season? I am a assuming that teams at first or second apron may have interest.

What is your teams best offer for cap space flexibity? Is the actual player more or less important than the cap. Space?

As a start point, the Trailblazers have the following one year trade chips this off season:

Ayton: $35,550,814
Simins: $27,678,571
Thybulle: $11,550,000
RW III: $13,285,713
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#2 » by giberish » Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:27 am

It's really the cost of the bad, multi-year deal that's being taken on that drives the value. Which is going to depend on the size and number of extra years on deal as well as any on-court value that player would have. It's not really the EC that has value, it's the extra unwanted salary that gets taken on that has value.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#3 » by jbk1234 » Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:32 am

Jazz have a lot of expiring deals to sell as well. Pretty sure the Hornets have a couple.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#4 » by Butter » Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:47 am

giberish wrote:It's really the cost of the bad, multi-year deal that's being taken on that drives the value. Which is going to depend on the size and number of extra years on deal as well as any on-court value that player would have. It's not really the EC that has value, it's the extra unwanted salary that gets taken on that has value.


I can see two scenarios

1) teams offering draft picks to take a bloated contract

2) teams offering a talented player they just can't afford anymore
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#5 » by Dr Aki » Tue Feb 11, 2025 12:44 pm

Lakers will have a **** ton of expiring, pretty much everyone except Vanderbilt
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#6 » by Stanq » Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:35 pm

Dr Aki wrote:Lakers will have a **** ton of expiring, pretty much everyone except Vanderbilt


Yes, but I don't think they will sell them because they are expires. Reaves is someone LA is in love with, and Rui, Gabe, DFS are very important contributors in the current squad. After they see how this season unfolds, get Luka to sign an extension, and know what Bron is gonna do, then we'll see if they package these guys for a star or just try to resign them on team friendly deals.

Right now I think the Lakers would be happy to reesign everyone for a few more years for their current contracts - none looks like negative value, most are likely to be assets if they sustain this level in the post season.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#7 » by Stanq » Tue Feb 11, 2025 1:41 pm

Butter wrote:Speaking generally, what is the value of deals that expire at the end of the 25/26 season? I am a assuming that teams at first or second apron may have interest.

What is your teams best offer for cap space flexibity? Is the actual player more or less important than the cap. Space?

As a start point, the Trailblazers have the following one year trade chips this off season:

Ayton: $35,550,814
Simins: $27,678,571
Thybulle: $11,550,000
RW III: $13,285,713


Lakers would love to take some of these expiring contracts off Portlands hand. Maxi for Thybulle or RW3 and some draft capital that is not a first would work great.

I'm actually guessing Lakers will try to get a more established and healthy big in the offseason, but if that fails, I love the fit of RW3 with Bron and Luka. Thybulle is buried under 4 guards in Portland, he should be an easy target for the Lakers if they re-trade Knetch. And Portland shouldn't ask for much.

Kleber is expiring so you kinda keep the books open, and could trade him to a team looking to offload a bad contract.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#8 » by ChettheJet » Tue Feb 11, 2025 2:11 pm

Another scenario would be a team with a $35M expiring might want to get $15M 2 year and a $20M expiring to either reroute one or both or cover two positions while also trading some of their other players. This is what I thought might apply to the Blazers and including the Lakers. If Ayton had gone to the Bulls, Vucevic to the Lakers, some Laker pieces like Rui, going to PORT plus some Bulls pieces like Carter and Terry going to PORT. That would break down Ayton's $34M into smaller pieces, the Lakers would have gotten a healthy center an the Bulls a younger more mobile 5.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#9 » by gswhoops » Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:11 pm

giberish wrote:It's really the cost of the bad, multi-year deal that's being taken on that drives the value. Which is going to depend on the size and number of extra years on deal as well as any on-court value that player would have. It's not really the EC that has value, it's the extra unwanted salary that gets taken on that has value.

Yeah this is the correct answer. It's impossible to say in a vacuum how "valuable" an expiring contract is because it doesn't have inherent value - its value is derived from its ability to be used to take on multiyear salary from another team (and/or act as more or less neutral "filler" to make a larger deal CBA-compliant).
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#10 » by hugepatsfan » Tue Feb 11, 2025 7:17 pm

Other than maybe Thybulle I think all of those contracts are, on their own merits, negative value. You'd have to pay a team to take those players into cap space at those numbers. Like others have said, any value you get from them would be in the money taken on. If you took back a player worse than the one from that list you send out but it's an expiring deal, you probably get a 2nd or two. If you take on longer term money, now you get some actual value back. It really depends on the overall deal you're including them in. There's not really any standalone value on those deals.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#11 » by pcbothwel » Tue Feb 11, 2025 7:35 pm

Wizards will have Middleton ($34M) and Smart ($21.5M).
I assume we would be in the market for lesser players/bad salary through 26/27 season. A 3rd team would probably be necessary, but I could see Boston (Jrue), Miami (Wiggins), Minny (McDaniels), and Phoenix (Beal) as potential partners.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#12 » by gswhoops » Tue Feb 11, 2025 7:41 pm

pcbothwel wrote:Wizards will have Middleton ($34M) and Smart ($21.5M).
I assume we would be in the market for lesser players/bad salary through 26/27 season. A 3rd team would probably be necessary, but I could see Boston (Jrue), Miami (Wiggins), Minny (McDaniels), and Phoenix (Beal) as potential partners.

It's too bad that Khris+Smart make ever so slightly more than Beal, because I actually think that's a deal that could be interesting if Washington can move Poole for value (Orlando?)
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#13 » by Euphonetiks » Tue Feb 11, 2025 9:56 pm

Butter wrote:Speaking generally, what is the value of deals that expire at the end of the 25/26 season? I am a assuming that teams at first or second apron may have interest.

What is your teams best offer for cap space flexibity? Is the actual player more or less important than the cap. Space?

As a start point, the Trailblazers have the following one year trade chips this off season:

Ayton: $35,550,814
Simins: $27,678,571
Thybulle: $11,550,000
RW III: $13,285,713


Two things working against expirings are (1) There are a LOT of teams with space in the '26 offseason, so there are lots of expirings at every level of salary that you are competing with: CJ, Middleton, Randle, Harris, Collins, Rozier, Vucevic, Smart, Robinson, H. Barnes..etc and (2) this summer both free agency and cap space is limited.

Being able to match salary with second apron teams might be the key to gettting value for an expiring: Denver with Nanji. Maybe Cleveland pays to get off Hunter if it doesn't work out with him. Boston might try to dump Jrue. Warriors depending on the Kuminga deal.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#14 » by Myth » Wed Feb 12, 2025 2:17 am

Best case scenario, Blazers land Flagg and can truly end their rebuild. Then they can try to add picks to these expirings for win now players. If not, I hope they don’t over assume the mid-season stretch means they are ready, and I say continue searching for draft picks attached to worse contracts.
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Re: Selling Expiring deals 

Post#15 » by babyjax13 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 2:21 am

I think almost every team has a lot of expiring money and it isn't going to be as valuable as it would have been this season.
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