3ammy3uck3ts wrote:greg4012 wrote:3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Defense hasn’t been the issue, we’re 9th in the league. It’s the garbage offense sitting at 20th (probably worse after tonight) and it hasn’t matter who’s been available or not. Guess we’ll see how it goes at full strength.
We can win alot of game if we hold teams to 103 points, not if we can only put up 85 though. Even last game, 102 for the Nets but we can only put up 86 and that’s with Herro.
Defense hasn't been the issue, but the eye test clearly shows that Miami has a lot of low hanging fruit to improve on defense. Fully integrating the new guys and minimizing Terry's role should lead to A LOT less wide open lanes for the perimeter players to walk into the paint and generate looks. Should also lead to A LOT less opportunities for NBA players to take practice shots from 3 untouched until they catch fire.
Can't expect some crazy offensive jump when we didn't add real offensive personnel. Wiggins can get some buckets in offensive flow, but he's not a real source of generating offense imo.
With how the roster is constructed, Herro is THE source of offensive creation. That's not good roster construction but its not surprising that him missing leads to league worst levels of offense.
43% of the Heat's current payroll is dedicated to offense only players that are defensive liabilities (Herro, Duncan, and Rozier). That's 43% of the allotted payroll.
Let's take a closer look at this nearly half of the payroll that is meant to specialize in generating offense for Miami:
- Tyler Herro is the highest usage player on the team and is averaging nearly 24 ppg and 5.6 apg. His TS% is 60.8% (median NBA offense has a TS% of 57.7%). VERY GOOD
- Duncan Robinson is a 24 mpg player that averages 10 ppg and 2 assists. His TS% is 57.2% (just below the median), but is trending down at 52% over the last 5 games.
- Terry Rozier is a 29 mpg player that averages 12 ppg and 3 assists. His TS% is 51% (worse than the worst offense in the NBA)
Tyler and Terry are the only real perimeter players with a creation skillset on this team and one of them generates league-worst offense. None of the above 3 help on defense.
Now add in Bam's terrible offensive stretch for the first half of the season--TS% of 53.5% on the season--and it's a recipe for offense to be a disaster. Fortunately, Bam seems to be out of his funk and is hovering around NBA median 57% TS% over the past 20 games or so and inching back to his career average of 59% TS.
If Bam or Herro miss extended time over the back half of the season, Miami will be tanking (whether intentional or not). I really hope neither miss that time. Especially not Herro, as he still needs to prove that he can maintain his improved level of play for an entire season.
Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst. 5 games after the ASB are the Raptors, bucks, Hawks twice, and Pacers. Come out of that with a losing record and I’m going full blown tank to give ourselves better assets. Would love to get more playoff basketball in but from an asset standpoint we need good picks to get something meaningful done this summer
THere's not good reason to be expecting anything better than near 500 ball. If its worse, that's OK. Expecting better when Miami just shipped off Jimmy and is in the midst of an experimental/developmental season is setting oneself up to be outraged and upset.
THe dirty secret that no one has time to recognize is that dedicating this time to developing youth and new skillsets will actually reap benefit--just not necessarily immediately. If Miami can end up with a lotto pick, that will be fun and I'm all for it.
