Retro Player of the Year 2013-14 — Lebron James

[capfan33]

1. Lebron- I guess Kd has an argument but honestly there isn’t a planet or year where I ever take KD over LeBron outside of injury, two different classes of player. Finals was disappointing but LeBron still played well under the circumstances, once the spurs figured out the heat defense the series was unplayable.

2. Kd- incredible regular season coming into his own without Russ, and was also quite respectable in the playoffs although I would be curious to see if the Spurs put kawhi on Russ like they did in 2016 as that would have a major impact on his numbers. Clear #2 with no real viable alternative imo.

3. Duncan- think it’s arguable between Duncan and kawhi but I still generally favor Duncan being more important, both from a skillset and intangibles perspective. Incredible run for Duncan regardless.

4. CP3- another excellent campaign by Paul and went down fighting against a very good Thunder team. As Enigma noted, plenty of warts against him as well being on a pretty good team without him and getting outplayed by his counterpart, but I think 4th or 5th is fine.

5. Paul George- honestly George, curry and cp3 could prob be argued in any order to me, this is maybe George’s best defensive year and one of the best wing defensive years ever, and he individually put up a good fight against Miami leadi no a very solid pacers team although he never did much against lebron as a defender.

[OhayoKD]

Voting Post

1. Lebron James

Not an impeccable season and I think it's somewhat fitting he isn't winning this unanimously but he's still the best player with an argument as the best RS player to go along with being the hands down best postseason player.

When you are trying to argue for Kevin Durant on the basis of what he did outside of scoring, you are pretty much conceding KD shouldn't be argued for in the first place. Durant was outplayed by Westbrook while Lebron did what Durant did much better than he did (and by the fromular form made-up formula creator the sole Durant voters likes, better than anyone else ever has).

We saw in 2013 as Durant's +9 SRS team collapsed comically without Westbrook facing non-contenders. We saw in the first round as Westbrook was getting up to speed Durant's OKC barely scrape past another non-contender. And then Westbrook, even just by the box-score, outplayed KD with a bigger box playmaking gap than scoring gap. And the gap was as big as ever in the biggest series with the Spurs defending Durant and Westbrook like equals.

2 points of SRS and 5 extra wins is nice. And sure it's impressive they won that much with Westbrook missing 7 more games than Lebron's far inferior #2. But it doesn't really suggest a gulf in regular-season player, and a gulf is pretty much what you need when arguing for Durant preceding a postseason he shoots 10 points worse and turns the ball over more while creating far less, facing less defensive attention, and having a much smaller role defensively.

OKC did do much better vs San-Antonio...on the back of a superior version of the player saw a 9-point playoff drop-off without in 2013 having his best performance of the playoffs while Durant turned in his worst. Lebron James was not only excellent vs San-Antonio, he was excellenter if you filter out garbage time where his efficiency cratered. If not for cramps, Lebron probably has a preview of what he did in 2015, taking 2 games off an opponent his team is hopelessly overmatched by. Hard for me to buy Westbrook carrying Durant is a solid point in Durant's favor here.

And what about what happened before. Through their conference Miami, with Lebron as defensive anchor, primary scorer, primary ball-handler, and primary creator went 12-4 posting

-> +8 PSRS
-> +3 PSRS
-> +9 PSRS

OKC with much stronger support went

+7 PSRS
+8 PSRS

That's not enough of a gap for me to buy OKC's #2 in the playoffs, was secretly close to Miami's far and away #1, despite being far worse at what is typically his biggest advantage, including against the common opponent the two shared.

If someone wants to seriously watch the games and make an effort to show Lebron had an outlierly poor postseason on defense while Durant had a strong one, like so:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2431777

Barring that the best perimeter player ever is still an easy pick for me.



2. Kevin Durant
3. Russell Westbrook

Westbrook was the real MVP of the 2014 and 2016 playoffs and accordingly deserves consideration. He also performed his best facing the strongest opponents while Durant did the exact opposite peaking against the Grizzlies and folding while facing 2 actual contenders. With better health he'd probably be #2.

4. TIm Duncan
5. Chris Paul

The Spurs were too good not to get representation here. Chris Paul was too good to be left off.

OPOY

1. Lebron James
2. Russell Westbrook
3. Chris Paul

DPOY

1. Joakim Noah
2. Roy Hibbert
3. Tim Duncan

[AEnigma]

Votes are tallied. I recorded 10 approved voters: Djoker, capfan33, homecourtloss, OldSchoolNoBull, ShaqAttac, IlikeShaiGuys, OhayoKD, Narigo, One_and_Done, and trelos. DJoker, AEnigma, OldSchoolNoBull, OhayoKD, IlikeShaiGuys, and trelos voted for both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Please let me know if I seem to have missed or otherwise improperly recorded a vote.

2013-14 Results

(Retro) Offensive Player of the Year — Lebron James (4)

Code: Select all

Player       1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Lebron James   5   1   0   28    0.933
2. Kevin Durant   1   3   1    15    0.500
3a. Chris Paul    0   0   4    4    0.133
3b. Steph Curry    0   1   1    4    0.133
4. Russell Westbrook    0   1   0    3    0.100

(Retro) Defensive Player of the Year — Joakim Noah

Code: Select all

Player         1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Joakim Noah  4   0   0    20    0.667
2. Roy Hibbert   0   4   0    12    0.400
3. Tim Duncan   1   0   3    8    0.267
4. Andrew Bogut   1   0   0    5    0.167
5. Kawhi Leonard   0   1   1    4    0.133
6. Serge Ibaka   0   1   0    3    0.100
7. Paul George   0   0   1    1    0.033
7. Marc Gasol   0   0   1    1    0.033

Retro Player of the Year — Lebron James (6)

Code: Select all

Player      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Lebron James  8  2  0  0  0   94   0.940
2. Kevin Durant  1  8  0  0  1   67   0.670
3. Tim Duncan  1  0  3  2  0   31   0.310
4. Chris Paul   0  0  3  3  3   27   0.270
5. Steph Curry   0  0  1  2  2   13   0.130
6. Kawhi Leonard   0  0  1  1  0   8   0.080
7. James Harden   0  0  0  2  0   6   0.060
8. Dirk Nowitzki   0  0  1  0  0   5   0.050
8. Russell Westbrook   0  0  1  0  0   5   0.050
10. Paul George   0  0  0  0  2   2   0.020
11. Manu Ginobili   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.010

Now, the 30 votes (with Narigo overlapping) in 2014 were contemporaneous, so I am not sure whether they should be grouped with this retroactive assessment… but for now, and with Narigo’s 2014 ballot excluded, here are the aggregated results of the two projects across 39 total ballots:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Lebron James  33  6  0  0  0   372   0.954
2. Kevin Durant  5  32  1  0  1   280   0.718
3. Chris Paul   0  1  11  13  10   111   0.285
4. Steph Curry   0  0  6  10  9   69   0.177
4. Blake Griffin   0  0  9  7  3   69   0.177
6. Tim Duncan  1  0  4  2  0   36   0.092
7. Kevin Love   0  0  3  3  3   27   0.069
8. Paul George   0  0  1  0  3   8   0.023
9. Kawhi Leonard   0  0  1  1  0   8   0.021
10. James Harden   0  0  0  2  1   7   0.018
10. Dirk Nowitzki   0  0  1  0  2   7   0.018
12. Russell Westbrook   0  0  1  0  1   6   0.015
12. Dwight Howard  0  0  0  1  3   6   0.015
14. Lamarcus Aldridge   0  0  1  0  0   5   0.013
15. Andre Iguodala   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.003
15. Manu Ginobili   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.003

This iteration of the project has now concluded. Thank you to everyone who participated over the past seven months, across seventy-five threads. I request that all post-project discussion be directed to the general project thread, so that this thread can remain focused on 2014 specifically. In the general project thread, I will soon post a brief recap of the project, and I will post a more thorough recap eventually.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I don't know if Kawhi truly deserves #3, but he absolutely deserves to be in the Top 5, and he's barely gotten one vote so far, so I'm giving him #3 just to keep him in the game for at least the #5 slot.

For the record, this is not the approach you should be taking. There are reasons one could validly select Kawhi third this year, and you made no express comment that you would take Chris Paul George over him if not for the fact that “he’s barely gotten one vote so far,” but I hope you can see how easy it is to go from your actual comment to a hypothetical where concern over aggregate finish is the explicit and sole motivation behind a ranking. That type of approach can quickly derail the project, as ballots can become a means by which people try to artificially skew aggregate results via selective abuse of the point system.

Fortunately, nothing of the project is left to derail, so just keep that in mind for the future. Yet again, the purpose here is supposed to be the process, not the results.

I hear you. But I didn't feel particularly strongly about anything this season beyond LeBron and Durant being 1 and 2. I felt like Kawhi/CP3/Steph all had comparable cases, but Kawhi accomplished more, so he got the nod. If anything, what I felt strongly about beyond LeBron/Durant was that Duncan was being given too much credit for this season and Kawhi not nearly enough, given that his numbers, again, topped Duncan's nearly across the board. I find it very frustrating.

But I do hear you - I'll be careful if I participate in any future projects with this kind of point system.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Duncan has like 2 less assists and 1 less point than parker and 3% worse true shooting while being their best defender and then in the playoffs is 1 less point 3 less assists and 3 points better true-shooting and Spurs defense awesome. Like what I'm saying is I think Duncan was kind of clearly the best guy on easily the best team. He definitely had alot of help though. Kawhi was really good too during the playoffs.

not seeing the numbers show that. that team has about 5 or 6 guys who all trade off leading one stat or the other. just looking at the box score big 3 of PER/WS48/BPM.

duncan was 1st in PER in the regular season and postseason, but was basically last in TS% (among big minute guys) in the regular season and only ahead of parker in the PS. duncan was 4th in WS48 and BPM in the regular season and 2nd and 7th in the PS. ginobili was 2nd/2nd/2nd in the regular season and 2nd/4th/2nd in the PS. kawhi was 3rd/1st/1st in the regular season but dipped a little to 4th/3rd/4th.

even someone like splitter end up 3rd/1st/3rd in the playoffs and danny green was 6th/5th/1st in the playoffs.

that's 4 people leading one of the stats in the regular season or postseason and most of these rankings are all very close as it is.

and then we turn to plus minus. while ginobili was +7.7 in the regular season and +12 in the playoffs, duncan was actually a negative in both the regular season and the postseason. -3.2 in the regular season and -0.8 in the playoffs. so they were literally better with him off the court in both situations. kawhi was +3.8 and +7.7.

this was about as equal a team as we'll probably see for a long while.

I mean all this stuff is cool but I don't care that much lol. I kind of just went over the stats and I'm pretty sure Duncan's a much better defender so like them being close in stats makes me think Duncan overall was the MVP.

[jiffzzz]

# Kawhi Defense on LeBron When The Game Was Within 10 Points Or Less

***(Stats are adjusted to Per 36 for a bigger sample size)***

**20.8/PPG**
**42.3% FG%**
**18.2% 3P%**
**51.7% TS (-2.4 r/TS)**

# Some Sources ⬇️
NBA.com Stats & Play-by-Play Logs (2014 Finals)
To Find: Score margins, minute-by-minute rotations, and filtering for when the score was within 10 points.

Synergy Sports / Second Spectrum Defensive Matchups (Publicly Available Samples & Analysis)

[One_and_Done]

# Kawhi Defense on LeBron When The Game Was Within 10 Points Or Less

***(Stats are adjusted to Per 36 for a bigger sample size)***

**20.8/PPG**
**42.3% FG%**
**18.2% 3P%**
**51.7% TS (-2.4 r/TS)**

# Some Sources ⬇️
NBA.com Stats & Play-by-Play Logs (2014 Finals)
To Find: Score margins, minute-by-minute rotations, and filtering for when the score was within 10 points.

Synergy Sports / Second Spectrum Defensive Matchups (Publicly Available Samples & Analysis)

You can't judge off a small sample from 5 games. Even judging off 5 full games would be unreasonable. Duncan was the best Spur over the course of the full season.

[OhayoKD]

# Kawhi Defense on LeBron When The Game Was Within 10 Points Or Less

***(Stats are adjusted to Per 36 for a bigger sample size)***

**20.8/PPG**
**42.3% FG%**
**18.2% 3P%**
**51.7% TS (-2.4 r/TS)**

# Some Sources ⬇️
NBA.com Stats & Play-by-Play Logs (2014 Finals)
To Find: Score margins, minute-by-minute rotations, and filtering for when the score was within 10 points.

Synergy Sports / Second Spectrum Defensive Matchups (Publicly Available Samples & Analysis)

You can't judge off a small sample from 5 games. Even judging off 5 full games would be unreasonable. Duncan was the best Spur over the course of the full season.

Bro never said anything about duncan vs kawhi

[ShotCreator]

I really think Chris Paul played the best basketball that year overall. His defensive and motor peak. Best shape he’d ever been in during his career that year. He had to weigh 10 less pounds than he did two years before and after 2014.

LeBron was probably the best player, but he took a year off defensively and transitioned his offensive game into this more well rounded, but to me less disruptive style.

Less slashing, more post-ups and spot-ups, which he was elite at that year, but I don’t think that’s the best of his game. When he’s stampeding the lane on massive volume is when he’s at his most dominant. Particularly to unlock his playmaking arsenal.

As years like 09, 10, 17, 18 showed.

The fact that Durant had better offensive impact metrics that year is really interesting and kind of points to that IMO.

Outside them, Curry was really good in retrospect. Better than people thought at the time.

And in the playoffs, Westbrook was at least as good as Durant. If not better.

Kawhi wasn’t there yet and Ginobili was clearly the best Spur when actually on the court.

But Mills, Green, Ginobili, Duncan and Kawhi were all top 30 guys on impact that year.

Great year in the NBA and in life. 2014 was just a great time.