Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[nomorezorro]

i get being cool on smith after his playoff performance, but the fact is, he's still probably going to be the best G to hit the free agent market over the next 3-5 years.

if you see something in fries or becton or someone else that has you convinced they're going to be an above-average starter, then i'm cool with pursuing them, but even if there's a bit of sticker shock with smith, he's as close as you can get to a guaranteed upgrade on the offensive line. if you don't have a better option lined up, you have to be willing to pull the trigger on that, imo. being too cute with OL spending is what got you here in the first place.

worst case scenario, you structure the contract so there's an easy out after the third year and can cut ties before caleb's eventual extension hits.

[fleet]

Assuming the Bears sign a center and guard, I am team trade up for Graham. Or draft an edge, Campbell, or Nolan at 10. Failing that, trade down for an edge, Booker, or Nolan.

[Peelboy]

My ideal/wishful offseason:
1. Jacksonville signs Cunningham to be GM, Bears get an extra 3 in 25 and 26.
2. Bears sign Zeitler and one of Dalman/Friess/Becton/Smith. I hear the concerns on Smith, but his career to date and age make him fairly attractive, assuming he's got the drive (ala not Nate Davis 2.0). Assume that Poles would have a better sense having been in KC and been burned on Davis.
3. Best avail in rd1: Carter, Graham, Williams, Stewart, Nolen, Simmons. A wrecker on the line. If you really hit gold in FA, maybe Jeanty.
4. 2 high 2s: one each of Harmon/Grant/Collins and Booker/Mbow/Zabel
5. 2 3s: Best available OL and DL, if a S or RB slides, maybe.

Basically come out of FA with 2 starting caliber OL. I like Zeitler as cheaper, knows Johnson so might be easier to poach, and would be good in the room with Ben, plus he's played well past couple years. That lets you get more flexibility in the draft to even get a guy who needs a year. Next big need is C, I'd try to find a starting caliber guy (Dalman would be the best get it seems). Then DL, maybe another S to offset potential risk with Quan.

Draft I really want to come out with at least 2 stud OL and DL, priority OL.

Something like Simmons-???-Dalman-Zeitler-Booker-Wright would be a pretty good line. 2 rooks, so maybe you slot in Pryor or Jones and the rook is the swing guy.

DL of Sweat-Dexter-Billings-FA with some depth from Booker, and a rook or 2.

[molepharmer]

Talked myself into believing the chance of Graham dropping to the Bears isn't complete nonsense despite seeing his name normally mocked in the top 5-6 picks. Maybe Graham is truly worthy of being picked that high or maybe this is a very weak draft. But based on past drafts he'd have to be at an All-Pro talent level to get picked that high. Fingers crossed teams need help at DB, O-line, Edge or WR or even possibly reach for a QB. I've talked myself up from about 0% chance to about 20% chance.

Since 2015 only one DT has been picked higher than #6 and that was Q Williams (#3, 2019, NYJ). Next highest was D Brown (#7, 2021, Car). J Carter (#9, 2023, Phi) was the only other DT picked inside the top 10 since 2011 (M Dareus #3, Buf).

For reference sake, below are the other top drafted DT since 2011.
[year - round - overall pick number -name - team]
2024 - 1- 16 - B Murphy - Sea
2023 - 1 - 9 - J Carter - Phi
2022 - 1 -13 - J Davis - Phi
2021 - 2 - 38 - C Barmore - NE
2020 - 1 - 7 - D Brown - Car
2019 - 1 - 3 - Q Williams - NYJ
2018 - 1 - 12 - V Vea - TB
2017 - 2- 35 - M McDowell - Sea
2016 - 1 - 12 - S Rankins - NO
2015 - 1 - 12 - D Shelton - Cle
2014 - 1 - 13 - A Donald - LAR
2013 - 1 - 13 - S Richardson - NYJ
2012 - 1 - 11 - D Poe - KC
2011 - 1 - 3 - M Dareus - Buf
* Course the other way one could look at this is that out of the last 6 drafts, 50% of the time, the top DT went before where the Bears current #10 pick sits.

[patryk7754]

Trading back from 10 might be a little difficult this season.
\
1. the sweet spot to trade back to is around the late teens to early 20s and I don't think there are teams in those spots that would trade up (or at least break the bank to do so)

2. there might not be anyone worth trading up for. Ward and Sanders are not likely to drop at 10, but if one of them does, that would be our best chance to trade back.

I do think there are two under the radar players that teams would trade up for. I think Dart will shoot up draft boards. I think he's going to have an impressive lead up to the draft and him being a QB would most likely boost his draft position. I would not be surprised if he went in the top half of the 1st, especially with a great combine. The other player would be Tyler Warren, but under the specific condition that the rams are doing the trading up. I saw a report that they were ready to jump up for Brock Bowers but were denied. Tyler Warren is decently similar to Bowers so I can see them trying to make the jump. The problem would be that the gap is probably big from 10 to 26.

[nomorezorro]

it's still way too early to do any worthwhile speculation on the trade market for this draft, but if i had to call my shot on one potential move down from 10, i would look at the broncos moving up ahead of the cowboys to grab jeanty.

10+149 for 20+51 is an exactly fair trade per the rich hill trade chart. maybe you swap out 149 for a compensatory 3rd or a future 4th if the bears need to eat a little value to motivate someone to trade up, i dunno.

[fleet]

Out of Jacksonville, Steelers reportedly inquired on availability of Trevor Lawrence. Pellisaro denies.

[NZB2323]

i get being cool on smith after his playoff performance, but the fact is, he's still probably going to be the best G to hit the free agent market over the next 3-5 years.

if you see something in fries or becton or someone else that has you convinced they're going to be an above-average starter, then i'm cool with pursuing them, but even if there's a bit of sticker shock with smith, he's as close as you can get to a guaranteed upgrade on the offensive line. if you don't have a better option lined up, you have to be willing to pull the trigger on that, imo. being too cute with OL spending is what got you here in the first place.

worst case scenario, you structure the contract so there's an easy out after the third year and can cut ties before caleb's eventual extension hits.

He still helped the Chiefs win the AFC and it was mainly their tackles that were getting outmatched in the SB.

And in general I’m a huge fan of doing something to improve the OL over doing nothing, and I count signing backups, drafting offensive linemen in rounds 3-7 and making excuses largely as nothing.

[Dresden]

i get being cool on smith after his playoff performance, but the fact is, he's still probably going to be the best G to hit the free agent market over the next 3-5 years.

if you see something in fries or becton or someone else that has you convinced they're going to be an above-average starter, then i'm cool with pursuing them, but even if there's a bit of sticker shock with smith, he's as close as you can get to a guaranteed upgrade on the offensive line. if you don't have a better option lined up, you have to be willing to pull the trigger on that, imo. being too cute with OL spending is what got you here in the first place.

worst case scenario, you structure the contract so there's an easy out after the third year and can cut ties before caleb's eventual extension hits.

He still helped the Chiefs win the AFC and it was mainly their tackles that were getting outmatched in the SB.

And in general I’m a huge fan of doing something to improve the OL over doing nothing, and I count signing backups, drafting offensive linemen in rounds 3-7 and making excuses largely as nothing.

Yeah, if they're going to overpay, overpaying on something we really really need is not a completely bad thing. And if it's a choice between getting Smith for top dollar, or going with the bargain basement guys again, by all means, spend the money.

[NZB2323]

i get being cool on smith after his playoff performance, but the fact is, he's still probably going to be the best G to hit the free agent market over the next 3-5 years.

if you see something in fries or becton or someone else that has you convinced they're going to be an above-average starter, then i'm cool with pursuing them, but even if there's a bit of sticker shock with smith, he's as close as you can get to a guaranteed upgrade on the offensive line. if you don't have a better option lined up, you have to be willing to pull the trigger on that, imo. being too cute with OL spending is what got you here in the first place.

worst case scenario, you structure the contract so there's an easy out after the third year and can cut ties before caleb's eventual extension hits.

He still helped the Chiefs win the AFC and it was mainly their tackles that were getting outmatched in the SB.

And in general I’m a huge fan of doing something to improve the OL over doing nothing, and I count signing backups, drafting offensive linemen in rounds 3-7 and making excuses largely as nothing.

Yeah, if they're going to overpay, overpaying on something we really really need is not a completely bad thing. And if it's a choice between getting Smith for top dollar, or going with the bargain basement guys again, by all means, spend the money.

Absolutely. And I think you have to overpay for the OL. You’re not going to sign a pro bowl OL for a bargain deal.

I’d also much rather prefer that than trading multiple draft picks to overpay a DL who is past his prime.

[patryk7754]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks made a move to take dart

[Ben Wilson25]

https://theonion.com/jalen-carter-flees-scene-in-parade-float/

[fleet]

I guess. But Jalen Carter won the Super Bowl, and so far turned his past around. He isn’t some recalcitrant bum loser. The Onion losing it’s grip on the right targets. That one seemed like a cheap shot.

[Jeffster81]

I guess. But Jalen Carter won the Super Bowl, and so far turned his past around. He isn’t some recalcitrant bum loser. The Onion losing it’s grip on the right targets. That one seemed like a cheap shot.

I'm glad he is turning his life around but it was still the right decision for the Bears passed on him. The Bears do not have the leadership (especially at the time) to handle Carter, Philly did. I hope the Bears can get to that point in which they can a flier on a highly touted but risky player like Carter.

[Almost Retired]

it's still way too early to do any worthwhile speculation on the trade market for this draft, but if i had to call my shot on one potential move down from 10, i would look at the broncos moving up ahead of the cowboys to grab jeanty.

10+149 for 20+51 is an exactly fair trade per the rich hill trade chart. maybe you swap out 149 for a compensatory 3rd or a future 4th if the bears need to eat a little value to motivate someone to trade up, i dunno.

I'm torn. Hopefully we are unlikely to draft this high again in the near future. Offensive tackles come at a premium. I think Will Campbell will be gone by he time we draft at #10. Kelvin Banks will probably be on the board. Despite being a big Texas fan I'm not 100% sold on him. So trading down to pick up another 3rd rounder and using the lower pick on Tyler Booker would make sense. Booker could be an O-line anchor for a decade. He's huge and the trend in the trenches is toward bigger and bigger bodies. Look at the Eagle's O-Line. Massive. Another guy worth looking at with a lower 1st rounder would be Jonah Savaiinea out of Arizona. He's played both tackle positions and he's a pretty big man. He could be a swing tackle for us in Year 1 with an eye to becoming our Left Tackle in a year or two. I think we now have the type of coaching staff that will lead to player improvements and development.

With an extra 3rd rounder we can really help our depth at multiple positions. If Ian Cunningham gets hired we'd then have 3 third rounders. We might be able to package 2 of them to move up into the 2nd round, giving us 3 of those valuable 2nd round picks. Use them to grab Grey Zabel as our Center of the future, and EDGE (Princely Umanmielen or JT Tuimoloau should be available) and more Defensive line help like Tyleik Williams, Deone Walker, or Alfred Collins of Texas.

[Ben Wilson25]

I guess. But Jalen Carter won the Super Bowl, and so far turned his past around. He isn’t some recalcitrant bum loser. The Onion losing it’s grip on the right targets. That one seemed like a cheap shot.

Is it hard to find cheerios that have already been peed in or do you have a guy that does it for you?

[Chi town]

Assuming the Bears sign a center and guard, I am team trade up for Graham. Or draft an edge, Campbell, or Nolan at 10. Failing that, trade down for an edge, Booker, or Nolan.

That’s where I’m at too.

[patryk7754]

I think this is a good offseason to restructure some players. It’s a good offseason to spend a lot of money and next season we would be able to clear up a lot of cap via cuts like byard, swift, and Edmund’s. Plus we will have a lot of significant contributors on rookies (including williams) contracts that will ease the increased cap hit next season. We should only restructure players that are guaranteed to still be on the roster throughout Williams rookie contract. So candidates we should consider would be sweat, Moore and Johnson. We should avoid restructuring edmounds and Kmet.
We can save the following by restructuring

Sweat: 13.2m
Moore: 15.7m
Johnson: 9.9m

It’ll be important to keep a balance between cap for this season vs next season and we probably won’t need all three of them anyway. Probably best for just two. Maybe Johnson and sweat since it would result in a lesser cap hit for next season (I assume. I’m not sure how it carries over.)

On top of that we’d have the cap added from cutting bates, walker, and Everett- plus and the smaller guys that would save 1-2m per player but cutting them or putting them on the practice squad which I estimate will be around 10m

So, starting cap: 65.5
Cap after practice squad cuts: 76
Cap after main cuts: 90.7
Cap after restructuring:113.8-129.5

Bonus via trades (unlikely)
Trade swift: adds 6.7m
Trade edmunds: adds 12.5

We can also extend Gordon and add and extra 1.9m this offseason.

So if we do all the cuts, restructure sweat and Johnson, and extend Gordon, we would have 115.7 in cap. We can completely rebuild the OL and DL with anyone we want and still have a **** load left over.

With that 115m in cap we can do the following.....

10m for resigning players (not including Allen)

Sign:
OL: Kevin Zeitler: LG (5m), Drew Dalman: C (9m), Will Fires: RG (15m), Ronnie Stanley: LT (18m), Dan Skipper: OT (3m)
DL: Malcolm Koonce: DE (10m), Mack: DE (10m), Morgan Fox: DE/DT (3m) John Hankins: DT (1.5)
Other: Mo Ali-Cox: TE (1.5m), Stephon Gilmore: CB (6m), Kenan Allen: WR (11m)

Possible bonus move: Cut Byard and replace him with Javon Holland. Might even do some more restricting if needed

Trade: Braxton Jones to the Saints for Rasheed Shaheed (WR/KR/PR) and 5th round pick. Less than 1m cap hit

Draft:
RD1: Mason Graham, DT (via trading up if necessary)
RD2: Donavan Jackson, LG
RD2: Jack Sawyer, DE
RD3: Ollie Gordon, RB
RD5: Jack Nelson, OT
RD6: Oronde Gadsden, TE
RD7: Seth McLaughlin, C
RD7: Que Robinson, DE

[Dresden]

is the combine this week?

[molepharmer]

is the combine this week?

fyi

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